UPDATE: The Herald Sun today has three Victorian state marginal Labor seat polls from YouGov Galaxy, with samples of around 520 each. As with the statewide poll, they find little change on the results from the last election, with Labor leading 54-46 in Eltham (52.7-47.3 at the election) and 53-47 in Cranbourne (52.3-47.7), but trailing 51-49 in Carrum, which was won by a 50.7-49.3 margin in 2014. The Herald Sun also has further results from the state poll: 52% think the state headed in the right direction, compared with 36% for the wrong direction; 34% say the “red shirt rorts” affair made them much less likely to trust the government, 23% a little less likely, and 30% no difference; and 33% said the Coalition’s promise to revive the East West Link project made them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 16% for less likely and 42% for no difference.
With three and a half months to go before the state election, a YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun records Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 38%, Coalition 42%, Greens 10% and One Nation 5%. The Herald Sun report opens by saying Labor leads “despite Victorians believing they are too soft on crime”, and while this may be true, it it not supported by the poll, which simply asked which leader and party respondents believed would be tougher. Forty-six per cent rated that Matthew Guy and the Coalition would be, compared with 29% for Daniel Andrews and Labor. Respondents were also asked who would “do better at preventing unnecessary price rises and keeping the cost of living in check”, which has Andrews and Labor on 37% and Guy and the Coalition on 35%. Andrews holds a 40-33 lead on a straightforward better Premier question. I presume the poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday; the sample was 1095.
Below is a poll aggregation chart that combines four results apiece from Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL, twelve from Roy Morgan and twenty-one from Essential Research. ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential are bias-adjusted to make them more like Newspoll and Galaxy. On the current reading of the trend, Labor leads 51.2-48.8, from primary votes of Labor 38.3%, Coalition 41.8% and Greens 10.2%.