The Australian today brings us a Victorian state voting intention result from Newspoll, which is not one of the usual results accumulated through polling conducted over a period of two months, but a one-shot poll of 1023 respondents conducted from Friday to Monday. It records Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, which is down from 52-48 at both the election and the previous poll conducted through February and March. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 38%, the Coalition is up two to 41% and the Greens are steady on 11%, with One Nation down one to 5% and all others down two to 5%.
Both leaders suffer spikes in their disapproval ratings: Daniel Andrews tips over to a negative net approval rating, with approval down three to 43% and disapproval up six to 47%, and Matthew Guy is down four on approval to 32% and up eight on disapproval to 45%. Andrews’ lead as preferred premier is at 41-34, narrowing from 41-30 last time. As it did last time, the poll asks about the better party to handle energy supply and law order, which respectively find Labor’s lead narrowing from 44-34 to 42-40, and its deficit widening from 42-37 to 46-37. The poll also finds 69% of respondents saying the government should do more to reduce gang violence, up four from last month, while only 23% think it is doing enough, down two points.
Last month, The Age published results of ReachTEL polling of the crucial “sandbelt” seats of Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Carrum and Frankston, targeting around 735 respondents each, which found Labor leading in all of them: by 53-47 in the case of the first three, and by 51-49 in Frankston. The poll was conducted for Environment Victoria, an “independent not-for-profit advocacy group”.
Below you will find a poll aggregation chart I have put together, combining four results from Newspoll (from whom we heard nothing in 2016), three apiece from Galaxy and ReachTEL, twelve from Roy Morgan and twenty-one from Essential Research. ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential are bias-adjusted to make more like Newspoll and Galaxy. On the current reading of the trend, Labor leads 51.6-48.4, from primary votes of Labor 37.7%, Coalition 40.3% and Greens 11.3%.