The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead at 59.5-40.5, up from 58.5-41.5 a fortnight ago. Primary votes are Labor 50.5 per cent (up 1.5), Coalition 35.5 (down 0.5) and Greens 7.5 (down 1). Elsewhere:
The redistribution of Tasmania’s electoral boundaries has been finalised. Several amendments have been made from the original proposal, which you can read about here. Antony Green calculates the new boundaries have increased Labor’s margin in Braddon from 1.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent, while reducing it in Denison from 15.6 per cent to 15.3 per cent, Franklin from 4.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent and Lyons from 8.8 per cent to 8.4 per cent. Bass remains at 1.0 per cent.
A bill to introduce fixed terms was introduced to the Northern Territory parliament on Wednesday. David Bartlett says similar legislation will be introduced in Tasmania next year, confirming the next election will be held on March 20, 2010 and setting up an ongoing clash with South Australia’s elections (to Antony Green‘s dismay). I’ll have much more to say on fixed four-year terms next week.
Tomorrow is Victorian local government election day, which in most cases means today is the last day for submission of postal votes. Read and comment about it here. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has council and ward map files for viewing in Google Earth.
In Queensland, poll-driven decisions on water policy are being seen as a harbinger of an early election.
Tasmanian polling firm EMRS has published its latest survey of 1000 respondents on state voting intention, as it does every two or three months. It gives Labor one of its better state polling results of recent times: they have held steady on 40 per cent while the Liberals have dropped three points to 35 per cent, with the Greens up four to a formidable 23 per cent (remembering that the Tasmanian Greens often over-perform in polls). Like all EMRS polling of the current term, this points to Labor losing its majority and the Greens holding the balance of power. Preferred premier ratings are 37 per cent for David Bartlett (down three), 29 per cent for Opposition Leader Will Hodgman (down four) and 15 per cent for Greens leader Nick McKim (up three).
The latest EMRS survey of Tasmanian state voting intention shows a recovery for Labor following the disastrous poll in May which immediately preceded Paul Lennon’s resignation as Premier. Excluding the considerable 14 per cent undecided from the sample of 1000, the poll shows Labor on 40 per cent, Liberal on 38 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent respectively up 7 per cent, down 4 per cent and down 2 per cent. New Premier David Bartlett leads Opposition Leader Will Hodgman 40 per cent to 33 per cent as preferred leader, respectively down 6 per cent and up 1 per cent since a poll conducted in June which canvassed leadership preference only. New Greens leader Nick McKim was favoured by 12 per cent of respondents.
UPDATE: Peter Tucker weighs in on the poll and Antony Green discusses moves towards four-year terms, which as currently proposed might entrench a permanent quadrennial clash with South Australian elections on the third Saturday in March. Both also discuss talk of an early Tasmanian election.
Tasmanian pollsters EMRS have produced a survey of state voting intention from 1002 respondents which provides all kinds of bad news for Premier Paul Lennon. Support for Labor is down to 33 per cent from 39 per cent at the previous survey in March (and from 49.6 per cent at the March 2006 election), while the Liberals are up to 42 per cent from 37 per cent (31.9 per cent at the election). The Greens are steady on 22 per cent (16.2 per cent at the election). Worse still, a question on preferred premier has Liberal leader Will Hodgman on 39 per cent against 17 per cent for Paul Lennon, who is barely ahead of Greens leader Peg Putt (14 per cent). The agency has gone against its usual practice in failing to break the results down by electorate. Apple isle pundit Peter Tucker has more.
UPDATE (26/5/08): Lennon quits.
Tasmanian pollster EMRS has published a survey of 853 committed voters on state voting intention, which shows Labor on 39 per cent (down 1 per cent from May 2007), the Liberals on 37 per cent (up 2 per cent) and the Greens on 22 per cent (up 1 per cent) (hat tip: Steve). Under the state’s Senate-like voting system, such a result would certainly see the Greens holding the balance of power, perhaps with as many as six of the 25 seats. The results in 2006 were 49.6 per cent, 31.9 per cent and 16.2 per cent; in 2002 they were 51.9 per cent, 27.4 per cent and 18.1 per cent. On both occasions the result was 14 seats to Labor, seven to the Liberals and four to the Greens.
On May 3 two independent members of the state’s 15-member upper house will face re-election under the chamber’s unusual system of annual rotating elections. They are Huon member Paul Harriss, a one-time Liberal candidate whose parliamentary votes go overwhelmingly against the government, and Rosevears member Kerry Finch, whose votes split about evenly. One suspects neither is in much trouble: one or both might even be re-elected unopposed, unless the Greens want to be a pain in the arse again. The numbers in the chamber at present are four Labor, one ex-Labor renegade, and ten mostly conservative independents. More from Peter Tucker and Kevin Bonham at the Tasmanian Times.
UPDATE: Following yesterday’s close of nominations for the upper house elections, it has been revealed that two-horse races will proceed in both divisions. In Huon, Paul Harriss will face Greens candidate Mark Rickards, a former Royal Australian Navy officer and candidate for Franklin at the 2006 state election. Kerry Finch faces a challenge in Rosevears from independent Colin O’Brien, who would appear to be the proprietor of a bed and breakfast at Legana just outside of Launceston.