EMRS: Liberal 36, Labor 34, Greens 16 in Tasmania

Will Hodgman’s Liberal government crashes back to earth as Labor’s Rebecca White takes the lead as preferred premier.

The latest quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS finds the Hodgman Liberal goverment slumping back to where it was in late 2016 and throughout 2017, before the surge that delivered it commanding win at the election in March. The Liberal primary vote has crashed to 36%, down from 47% in the previous poll and 50.3% at the election, but most of the dividend is gained by “others”, up six to 14%. Labor is on 34%, compared with 30% in the previous poll and 32.6% at the election, and the Greens are on 16%, compared with 14% and 10.3%. The poll also finds Labor leader Rebecca White seizing a 46-38 lead as preferred premier, after trailing 47-41 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1000.

EMRS: Liberal 47, Labor 30, Greens 14 in Tasmania

A fairly typical post-election honeymoon poll result for Will Hodgman’s Liberal government in Tasmania, which has also laid claim to a seat in the Legislative Council after the recent periodic elections.

EMRS has published its first poll of Tasmanian state voting intention since the March election, and it records the Liberals on 47% (compared with 51.2% at the election and 46% in the pre-election poll in February), Labor on 30% (32.6% at the election, 34% in the last poll) and Greens on 14% (10.3% and 12%). Will Hodgman holds a 47-41 lead as preferred premier, little changed on 48-41 in February. The poll was conducted from May 7 to May 10, from a sample of 1000.

While on the subject of matters Tasmanian, the results for the upper house elections on May 5 have been resolved, and the contested seat of Prosser ended up being a win for the Liberals, who again have a second seat in the chamber after losing Vanessa Goodwin to cancer. The threat to the Liberal candidate, Jane Howlett, appeared to be from independent Steve Mav, but he ended up falling well behind Labor candidate Janet Lambert to be excluded before the final count, at which case he had 5392 votes to Lambert’s 5910 and Howlett’s 6885. With the distribution of Mav’s preferences, Howlett finished ahead of Lambert by 8776 to 7889, a margin of 2.7%.

In the seat of Hobart, independent incumbent Rob Valentine’s re-election has been confirmed by an 11.0% margin over rival independent Richard Griggs, with Valentine recording 11,032 votes to Griggs’ 7051 at the final count.

Tasmanian upper house elections: Prosser and Hobart

Live count commentary and an overview of today’s elections for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council.

Live counting

Prosser results

#
%
Swing
Jane Howlett (Liberal)
4972
26.1%
-20.0%
Janet Lambert (Labor)
4184
22.0%
-15.8%
Steve Mav (Independent)
3765
19.8%
Tony Mulder (Independent)
1847
9.7%
Others
4288
22.5%
Formal
19056
Booths reporting (out of 27)
27

Sunday night. A few more pre-poll, postal and other votes have been added in Prosser, with no more than 421 votes still outstanding. None of this provides any illumination on what we need to know, which is whether Steve Mav can overtake Labor to finish second, and if he can gain enough preferences to overhaul Jane Howlett if so. We won’t know that until next Tuesday, as the TEC apparently has no plans to conduct an indicative preference throw. In Hobart, it has been determined that Rob Valentine has a 61-39 lead over Richard Griggs after preferences.

8.23pm. Prosser: Not quite as good a result for Mav from 1411 postals, but he’s definitely still in the hunt. Hobart: Only one booth outstanding, and the only point of interest is the size of Rob Valentine’s final winning margin over Richard Griggs.

7.59pm. Prosser: Sorell, one of the electorate’s three large booths, has now reported, and the numbers are exactly those provided to Kevin Bonham.

7.54pm. Kevin Bonham again: “I’ve seen a scrutineering sheet from prepoll with prefs of Mav and Mulder estimated to be 60-70% to Liberal and those of Playsted even.” So Howlett will clearly win if Mav doesn’t make it to second place.

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Once more with feeling: Batman, SA, Tasmania

One last look at last month’s two state elections and one federal by-election.

Now the dust has settled, a considered review of the three big electoral events of March.

Batman

Labor’s win was ultimately more comfortable than it appeared on election, which has fed into the post-election speculation as to what it all means. For what it’s worth, a ReachTEL poll commissioned by a timber industry lobby group two days out from the election came within one point of accuracy on the two-party vote, and found Adani, health and education each recording about 20% on the question of most important campaign issue.

First the basic results:

A table further below zeroes into the count’s two curiosities, the first of which is the extent of Labor’s surge on late counting. The result is broken down into polling day votes, namely ordinary election day votes, provisional votes and (in the case of the 2016 election, to derive the swing) absent votes; pre-poll, which includes both the pre-poll voting centre booths and declaration pre-polls; and postals, which is just postals.

The fact that Labor didn’t do so well on the day has led suggestions that something must have happened late in the campaign to blunt Labor’s momentum, with the most obvious culprit being Labor’s dividend imputation policy. There may certainly be something in this, but the same pattern was evident in lesser degree at the Northcote by-election, at which the Greens’ swing was 1.9% weaker on pre-polls and 4.4% weaker on postals as compared with polling day votes, with the equivalent differences in Batman being 3.6% and 5.8%.

The second notable feature of the result was the disparity between the Labor-loyal northern end of the electorate and the Greens-leaning south. The former area did actually deliver the Greens the gentle swing they needed to win the seat, while the latter swung solidly to Labor – although there remains a 15.1% differential between the two, compared with 21.5% at the 2016 election. The table separately records votes cast north and south of Bell Street, and excludes votes where this cannot be discerned (postals and such).

South Australia

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Tasmanian election late counting

Progress at last as Tasmania waits on the exact size of the Liberal majority, and what remains to the Greens.

The Tasmanian election count is proceeding in an unusual fashion, with the results updated only yesterday for the first time since election night. This thread will be progressively updated to follow the progress of the late count. No breakdowns are provided of the results by vote type, but yesterday’s updates included the small changes that arise from rechecking, together with the more substantial addition of postal and absent votes to the count. They have not fundamentally changed the overall picture, which is that the Greens and a third Liberal are fighting over the last seat in Franklin; the Greens and a second Labor candidate are fighting over the last seat in Bass, with the latter looking the more likely; Braddon and Lyons are both three Liberal and two Labor, and Denison is two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens, but in each case there are elements of uncertainty about intra-party contests.

Of these there were at least 6000 in Franklin, which make next to no difference to the status of the count there, in which Rosalie Woodruff of the Greens fights off the third Liberal, Nic Street. In the other clearly contested race, Bass, there were only around 3600 votes added, which have been helpful to Andrea Dawkins in her fight against Jennifer Houston, who still appears somewhat likely to win a second seat for Labor. However, the change isn’t too radical: the total Labor vote is down from 26.5% to 26.4%, while the Greens is up from 9.1% to 9.2%.

The biggest infusion of new votes, around 8400, is from Denison, where the party result of Liberal two, Labor two and Greens one is not in doubt. However, Ella Haddad’s total vote share has softened from 8.2% to 7.9%, while embattled incumbent Madeleine Ogilvie has held firm on 6.6%, slightly increasing the latter’s chance of retaining her seat. Only around 2600 new votes have been added in Braddon, and they have little impact on Roger Jeansch’s lead over Joan Rylah in the race for the third Liberal seat, which is the only outstanding issue there. A substantial 7700 votes have been added in Lyons, which have slightly narrowed Lambert’s lead over Butler in the race for the second Labor seat, which was 2.63% to 2.33% on election night, and is now 2.59% to 2.36%.

Tasmanian election call of the board

A detailed look at the Liberals’ unexpectedly decisive re-election in Tasmania.

The Liberals’ win in Tasmania was quite a bit easier than expected, particularly for those who were factoring a backlash over the late-breaking revelation that the Liberals had an all-but-secret policy to liberalise gun laws. Late polls had the Liberals on around 46%, but they appear to have made it all the way to 50%, which is a fairly extraordinary feat in a modern Australian election. Labor’s low thirties vote share was in line with the polls, but the Greens’ 10% was two points worse than expected.

After winning an unrepeatable fifteen seats out of twenty-five in 2014, the Liberals have certainly emerged with a clear majority of thirteen, and could yet go one better. The north-south divide that opened at the 2014 election stayed open, but did not appreciably widen so far as the balance of Liberal and Labor support was concerned. However, the Greens did particularly badly in Lyons and especially Braddon, and no longer look competitive there.

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