The Tasmanian election count will conclude later this afternoon, the one result remaining in doubt being Braddon, which might go either 4-1 or 3-2 to the Liberals ahead of Labor, the former being an unprecedented result. After all five electorates went two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in 2010, the Liberals built their landslide this time on gains from Labor in Bass and Franklin, gains from the Greens in Lyons and Braddon, and potentially a further gain from Labor in Braddon in as well. That will leave the final numbers in parliament at either 14 or 15 for the Liberals, seven or eight for Labor, and three for the Greens. A call of the board for each electorate in turn:
Bass: The Liberals have won a third seat at the expense of Labor, down from two to one, with the Greens retaining their seat. The Liberal vote was up from 42.6% to 57.2%, or 3.43 quotas. This re-elected Michael Ferguson (down slightly from 25.0% to 22.4%) and Peter Gutwein (up from 14.2% to 23.3%), the successful newcomer being Sarah Courtney, whose 4.7% share of the vote compared with 4.0% and 2.8% for party colleagues Barry Jarvis and Leonie McNair. The Labor vote was down from 34.5% to 23.3%, or 1.40 quotas only enough to re-elect their highest profile member, Michelle O’Byrne, who was down from 17.8% to 10.6%. The other Labor incumbent, Brian Wightman, was up from 5.9% on his 2010 debut to 8.2%, but it availed him not. The Greens were down from 21.0% to 12.7%, or 0.76 quotas.
Braddon: The Liberals are grappling for an unprecedented fourth seat out of five, with a 58.8% share of the vote (3.53 quotas, up from 45.2%) set to add one or two newcomers to re-elected incumbents Adam Brooks (25.0%, up from 10.8% on his 2010 debut) and Jeremy Rockliff (up from 17.1% to 23.6%). Roger Jaensch (4.7%) is slightly ahead of Joan Rylah (4.1%, but performing better than Jaensch on preferences) in the race for the third seat, leaving Rylah hoping for a fourth. Both finished well ahead of a fifth Liberal candidate, Kyron Howell (1.4%). Labor veteran Bryan Green (down from 17.4% to 10.3%) comfortably outpolled maverick colleague Brenton Best (down from 11.0% to 5.7%, for all his efforts to distance himself from the government), who is grappling with the Liberals for the last seat. As Kevin Bonham relates, Best requires a strong flow of Greens preferences that he is unlikely to receive, given his vocal hostility to them. The Greens vote was down from 13.7% to 7.0%, or 0.42 quotas, resulting in the defeat of their incumbent Paul O’Halloran. They were slightly outpolled by the Palmer United Party on 7.2%, who were nonetheless unable to win the seat for which they held the highest hopes.
Denison: Denison produced the one status quo result of two seats each for Labor and Liberal and one for the Greens. The Liberals were up from 29.8% to 40.2% (2.41 quotas), but with Andrew Wilkie’s 8.4% vote from 2010 up for grabs, the changes for the other parties were relatively modest, with Labor down from 36.3% to 33.9% (2.03) and the Greens from 24.9% to 22.9% (1.37 quotas). The Liberal ticket was dominated by incumbents Matthew Groom (up from 15.1% to 21.6%) and Elise Archer (from 4.7% to 10.5%), both of whom entered parliament in 2010, as was the Greens ticket by Cassy O’Connor (down from 16.2% to 15.2%). The only Labor winner from 2010 seeking re-election was Scott Bacon, who in the face of considerably weaker competition for the Labor vote was up from 11.5% to 22.6%. Newcomer Madeleine Ogilvie is struggling to hold off Julian Amos, a former MP seeking to return, their respective vote shares being 3.4% (up from 1.0% in 2010) and 3.0%, with Amos narrowing the gap on preferences. The fifth Labor candidate, Alphonse Mulumba, polled 2.5%.
Franklin: Labor is in the awkward spot of having potential leadership contender David O’Byrne squeezed out by the Liberals winning a third seat at his expense, the Liberal vote having risen from 41.2% to 49.8% (2.99 quotas), with Greens leader Nick McKim securing re-election from a party vote of 16.8% (1.01 quotas, down from 27.4% in 2010). The Liberal vote was up from 41.2% to 49.8%, or 2.99 quotas, their ticket dominated by Will Hodgman (up from 31.7% to 35.2%), with incumbent Jacquie Petrusma (6.7% compared with 3.9% on her debut in 2010) to be joined by outgoing independent upper house MP Paul Harriss (5.4%). Labor’s vote was down relatively modestly from 30.5% to 28.6%, their 1.72 quotas securing election only for Lara Giddings (up from 15.1% to 16.4%), who landed well clear of O’Byrne (8.4% after his 2010 debut of 7.6%). A leadership transfer to O’Byrne could nonetheless be accomplished if Giddings left parliament, in which case O’Byrne would be certain to fill her vacancy on a countback.
Lyons: The Liberals (up from 36.1% to 51.9%, or 3.12 quotas) gained a seat here from the Greens (down from 21.1% to 11.4%, or 0.68 quotas), Labor retaining two seats despite a fall in their vote from 36.1% to 27.7% (1.66 quotas). Former Liberal Senator Guy Barnett polled nearly as well as the incumbents on his state election debut with 14.7%, only slightly behind former party leader Rene Hidding (up from 11.8% to 16.7%) and ahead of Mark Shelton (12.1% after his 8.2% on debut in 2010). Michael Polley having retired, the only Labor incumbent was Rebecca White, heading the Labor ticket with 12.9% after recording 10.0% on debut in 2010. The second Labor seat goes to 71-year-old David Llewellyn, who resumes a parliamentary career that was interrupted after 24 years when White defeated him in 2010, his 7.9% share of the vote comparing with 10.3% in 2010. The defeated Greens member is Tim Morris, who after the conclusion of preferences had 8462 votes (12.8%) to Llewellyn’s 10,177 (15.3%).