TASMANIAN ELECTION 2018

Lyons


ELECTORATE MAP
PARTY VOTE AT 2014 ELECTION
# % Quotas Swing
LIBERAL 34,463 50.9% 3.06 +14.8%
Guy Barnett* 9,741 14.4% 0.86
Bertrand Cadart 2,560 3.8% 0.23
Martyn Evans 3,005 4.4% 0.27
Rene Hidding* 11,097 16.4% 0.98 +4.6%
Mark Shelton* 8,060 11.9% 0.71 +3.7%
LABOR 18,374 27.1% 1.63 -15.6%
Darren Clark 1,080 1.6% 0.10
Jessey Dillon 719 1.1% 0.06
Bob Gordon 2,724 4.0% 0.24
David Llewellyn* 5,262 7.8% 0.47 -2.5%
Rebecca White* 8,589 12.7% 0.76 +2.7%
GREENS 7,565 11.2% 0.67 -10.0%
Pip Brinklow 655 1.0% 0.06
Glenn Millar 498 0.7% 0.04
Tim Morris 5,140 7.6% 0.46 -6.5%
Hannah Rubenach 668 1.0% 0.06
Stephanie Taylor 604 0.9% 0.05
Palmer United 3,758 5.6% 0.33
Nationals 2,072 3.1% 0.18
Independents 1,445 2.1% 0.13
HISTORICAL VOTE RESULTS
HISTORICAL SEAT RESULTS
CANDIDATES
Jacqui Lambie Network
MICHAEL KENT
CHRIS REYNOLDS
BOB VERVAART
Liberal
GUY BARNETT
RENE HIDDING
JANE HOWLETT
MARK SHELTON
JOHN TUCKER
Labor
JEN BUTLER
DARREN CLARK
GERARD GAFFNEY
JANET LAMBERT
REBECCA WHITE
KYLIE WRIGHT
Greens
FRASER BRINDLEY
HELEN HUTCHINSON
LUCY LANDON-LANE
GLENN MILLAR
GARY WHISSON
Shooters Fishers Farmers
MATTHEW ALLEN
SHANE BROADBY
CARLO DI FALCO
ANDREW HARVEY
WAYNE TURALE
Ungrouped
TENNILLE MURTAGH
KIM PEART

Known before 1982 as Wilmot, Lyons consists of what remains after natural communities of interest are grouped together in the north-west (Braddon), north-east (Bass) and Hobart region (Denison and Franklin). It thus straddles small towns on both sides of Tasmania’s pronounced north-south divide, respectively including New Norfolk outside Hobart and the southern outskirts of Launceston, together with fishing towns and tourist centres on the east coast and an expanse of farming territory in between. Its profile makes it slightly conservative leaning by Tasmanian standards, though it has otherwise moved with the state’s distinct electoral rhythms over the decades.

As part of the dramatic shift outside Hobart over the past two elections, the Liberals gained a seat in Lyons in both 2010 and 2014, first from Labor and then from the Greens. Of Labor's three incumbents at the 2010 election, only Michael Polley won re-election, with David Llewellyn and Heather Butler making way for a second Liberal, Mark Shelton, and a Labor newcomer, Rebecca White, who is now the party's leader. However, Llewellyn returned on a recount after Polley's retirement, and both he and White were re-elected in 2014. Tim Morris held a seat for the Greens for three terms from 2002, but was unseated in 2014 by a third Liberal, Guy Barnett.

Liberal candidates

GUY BARNETT


RENE HIDDING


JANE HOWLETT


MARK SHELTON


JOHN TUCKER

The three Liberals in Lyons are all identified with the party's conservative tendency, and are all seeking re-election. The best performing in 2014 was Rene Hidding, the Dutch-born veteran who has held his seat since 1996. Hidding led the party for the term after its devastating defeat in 2002, which he failed to appreciably improve on in 2006. He then stepped aside in favour of Will Hodgman, reportedly with some reluctance. Since the election of the Hodgman government in 2014, Hidding as maintained the portfolios of police and emergency management and infrastructure.

The next elected candidate was Guy Barnett, a newcomer to state politics but a Senator from 2002 to 2011. Barnett was noted in the Senate for his social conservatism, reflected in his positions on stem cell research, abortion and the decriminalisation of homosexuality. In 2010 he was bumped down to what proved to be the losing third position on the ticket, admitting shortly after that “some tension” existed between himself and Right faction powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz. He was immediately given a parliamentary secretary role after his success at the 2014 state election, and replaced Adam Brooks in cabinet in the resources and building and construction portfolios in July 2016.

Mark Shelton was the third Liberal elected and the fourth elected overall, having first won the Liberals' second seat in 2010 with 8.2% of the vote. Shelton has held the position of Speaker since September 2017, when it was vacated by Elise Archer's elevation to cabinet.

The non-incumbent Liberal candidates are Jane Howlett, an adviser to Guy Barnett who polled creditably when she ran in 2010; and John Tucker, a cattle farmer and Break O'Day councillor.

Labor candidates

JEN BUTLER


DARREN CLARK


GERARD GAFFNEY


JANET LAMBERT


REBECCA WHITE


KYLIE WRIGHT

With the retirement of David Llewellyn, who has held a seat since 1986 outside a one-term interruption after his defeat in 2010, Labor's only remaining incumbent is the party leader, Rebecca White. White was 27 years old when first elected in 2010, having previously been a staffer to federal Denison MP Duncan Kerr. With Labor's seat share in Lyons reduced from three to two, White defeated two incumbents to take the second remaining Labor seat. Her campaign was based on a theme of “renewal in Lyons”, by way of emphasising her distinctiveness from 60-year-old Michael Polley, who was re-elected, and 67-year-old David Llewellyn and 62-year-old Heather Butler, who were defeated. Llewellyn slightly outpolled her on the primary vote, but White prevailed after preferences.

White served as Human Services Minister during Labor's last three months in office, taking one of the places freed by the demise of the Labor-Greens alliance. Polling conducted after the 2014 defeat found White heavily favoured to take over the Labor leadership from Bryan Green, and despite reported qualms from Left faction leaders over what The Mercury described as her “independent streak”, she emerged unopposed when Green stood aside in March 2017.

Labor's non-incumbent candidates are Darren Clark, electorate officer to federal Braddon MP Brian Mitchell and a former state president of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who also ran in 2014; Jen Butler, a staffer to David Llewellyn; Janet Lambert, a Northern Midlands councillor who has campaigned against commercial fishing by super-trawlers; Kylie Wright, a Break O'Day councillor; and Gerrard Gaffney, who has links to the Maritime Union of Australia.

Other candidates

The lead Greens candidate is Fraser Brindley (left), an adviser to Senator Peter Whish-Wilson and a former Melbourne City councillor.

The Jacqui Lambie Network's candidates include Michael Kent (centre), the mayor of Glamorgan-Spring Bay and, in the estimation of Kevin Bonham, a “high profile pro-development business figure”. Despite his 75 years, the party says it will demand the health ministry for him as the price of its support in a hung parliament.

Shooters Fishers and Farmers have a ticket of five candidates, its biggest in the state. The designated leader is Matthew Allen (right), who was also the party's lead Senate candidate in 2016.