Overview

Date of election: March 21, 2026

Labor's return to power in March 2022 after one term in opposition confirmed an ascendancy established through 16 years in power from 2002, albeit that only one of its four consecutive victories was achieved with a two-party preferred majority. Its reign finally came to an end in 2018 after a redistribution tipped the balance to the Liberals, whom Steven Marshall duly led to victory on the second attempt, despite a small two-party swing to Labor. Labor's two-party vote of 54.6% in 2022, achieved with a 6.5% swing, was its second best in half a century, after the 56.8% recorded under Mike Rann in 2006. At federal level, Labor has won the two-party vote in the state at six out of seven elections going back to 2007, its 59.2% in May 2025 being a post-war peak.

The complexion of Labor's win in 2022 was somewhat different from its previous time in government. A breakthrough was achieved in the liberal-progressive stronghold of Adelaide Hills, where Waite and Davenport were gained for the first time, whereas inner urban Colton, Dunstan and Hartley remained beyond their reach, despite being held by Labor through much of their previous time in government. Labor's other gains were the long-established marginal seats of Adelaide, Elder and Newland; more newly established marginals in Gibson and King; and normally safe Florey, which was held for a period by an independent. Labor's eight gains added up to 27 seats out of 47, while the Liberals were down by nine seats to 16, having lost a further seat to a fourth independent.

The 2022 result marked a return to normality in that Nick Xenophon's SA-Best did not significantly feature. Xenophon abandoned his Senate seat to spearhead a bid to establish his party at the forefront of state politics in 2018, but his party faltered in the heat of an election campaign and emerged empty-handed, polling an average of 18.5% across 36 seats contested. The demise of Xenophon's career appeared confirmed when his Senate comeback bid in 2022 attracted only 3.0% of the vote.

By-elections, redistribution and electoral arithmetic

Liberal numbers have been further reduced since March 2022 from 16 to 13, following two by-election defeats and a resignation. All three of the term's by-elections resulted from Liberal retirements, two being won by Labor. The exception was the particularly safe seat of Bragg, vacated by former Deputy Premier Vickie Chapman in the immediate wake of the election defeat. Chapman's margin had been cut from 16.8% to 8.2% at the election, which further reduced to 5.6% when Jack Batty retained the seat at the by-election in July 2022.

The next departure was the defeated former Premier, Steven Marshall, who had barely retained his difficult seat of Dunstan in 2022, holding out against a 7.6% swing by 0.5%. The by-election was also close, with both major parties down slightly more than 3% on the primary vote. However, much of the balance was absorbed by the Greens, giving Labor a stronger flow of preferences and a 0.8% winning margin. The biggest blow came in November 2024, following the ignominious departure of ousted Liberal leader David Speirs, whose seat of Black was gained by Labor with a 12.6% swing.

A further seat was lost to the Liberals when Nick McBride quit the party in July 2023, adding MacKillop to Kavel, Narungga and Mount Gambier as seats held by Liberal-turned-independent members. Here at least the Liberals seemingly have some cause for optimism: Kavel incumbent Dan Cregan is retiring, Mount Gambier has been vacant since its member Troy Bell had criminal convictions recorded against him in September, Narungga MP Fraser Ellis was convicted in July 2024 of rorting an accommodation allowance, and Nick McBride faces domestic violence charges.

The regular mid-term redistribution applied a light touch, with most seats left unchanged (particularly in Adelaide) and none changing their notional party status. The principle of “electoral fairness” has been applied, despite no longer being a legislated requirement, in that the 5% swing that would cost Labor the statewide two-party vote would also cost it four seats and their majority, if uniform. However, an equal swing the other way, which polling suggests is more likely, would devastate the Liberals, costing them half their existing 14 seats and all but locking them out of Adelaide.

Labor in government

Opinion polls have found Labor in an overwhelmingly dominant position since coming to power in March 2022, widely attributed to the popularity of Premier Peter Malinauskas. A former state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, Malinauskas first came to public attention in 2011 when he delivered a factionally ordained ultimatum to then Premier Mike Rann to go quietly or face a challenge. He was immediately elevated to cabinet after filling a Legislative Council vacancy in 2015, and served as Health Minister from September 2017 until the government's defeat six months later. Still only 37, his move to the lower house seat of Croydon at the 2018 election was widely seen to portend leadership ambitions, which were realised in short order after the election.

Malinauskas pursued a small-target strategy in opposition, particularly in relation to management of the COVID pandemic, having evidently learned from the cautionary tale of the Liberals in Western Australia. When a snap lockdown was imposed in November 2020, Malinauskas took to social media to announce that the opposition was “here to support the government”, calling on South Australians to “fight for each other, not against each other”. This was evidently effective in depriving the Liberals of the political dividend most other state governments enjoyed from the pandemic, despite it having been largely contained in the state at a time when neighbouring Victoria was experiencing punishing lockdowns.

Labor's campaign for the March 2022 election adopted a laser focus on the issue of ambulance ramping, and in particular on the misplaced priorities of a Liberal government that was dedicating $662 million to the Riverbank Arena development, which its advertising dismissed as a “basketball stadium”. This was evidently highly effective, but it has presented the government with the difficulty that it has been unable to solve the problem: where around 30,000 hours of ramping were recorded in the 2021-22 financial year, the number looked set to exceed 50,000 for 2025, fuelled by a bad flu season. The government has also faced the challenge of an algal bloom that has devastated marine life around the Fleurieu and Yorke peninsulas. Voters appear disinclined to blame the government for the rise in water temperatures that has led to the crisis, but it has nonetheless been exposed to criticism over its preparedness and response.

Together with Malinauskas's popularity, the government has had in its favour a large measure of internal stability through a period of conspicuous turmoil within the Liberal Party, experiencing no major scandals or ministerial resignations. One bump in the road came in September when two of the government's most senior figures, Deputy Premier Susan Close and Treasurer Stephen Mullighan, announced they would retire at the election. This prompted the only substantial reshuffle since the election, with Left faction MLC Kyam Maher taking on the deputy leadership and Right faction West Torrens MP Tom Koutsantonis returning to the role of Treasurer, which he had previously held from 2014 to 2018.

Liberal in opposition

The Liberals have endured three leadership changes since the 2022 election, most recently when Ashton Hurn became leader in December. Steven Marshall resigned after the election and was succeeded by David Speirs, a factional conservative who won the party room vote ahead of moderate rival Josh Teague. The first reports of a threat to Speirs emerged a year later, with both the party's subsequent leaders mentioned as potential replacements. Another possibility raised involved Nicolle Flint, the former federal member for Boothby, contesting the rural seat of MacKillop, whose member Nick McBride had quit the party, with a view to taking the leadership. However, she instead dedicated herself to a failed bid to recover her old seat at the May 2025 federal election.

Speirs resigned in August 2024, saying he lacked the motivation for what he acknowledged would be a “fight” for the leadership. The subsequent party room vote was contested by two moderates, with Vincent Tarzia prevailing over a second run by Josh Teague after winning decisive support from conservatives. Speirs did not attend the meeting, and said he would “find it difficult to remain in the Liberal Party” if the “two or three people” who had undermined him were elected to leadership positions, which some took to refer to Tarzia. Shortly after, The Advertiser revealed video showing Speirs snorting a line of white powder in what looked to be his home, and published expert advice to rebut his claim the video was a deepfake. He was then arrested in a police raid on his home and ultimately pleaded guilty to supplying an illegal substance, receiving a $9000 fine and a community service order.

In November 2025, The Advertiser reported Liberal internal polling had driven “momentum” towards a bid to draft Ashton Hurn, 34-year-old first term member and Shadow Health Minister. Tarzia stepped down the following month, saying he wished to focus on his family and local community, and denying he had been undermined. Hurn was chosen to succeed him unopposed. This marked the third time in a matter of weeks that a female Liberal had replaced a male state Opposition Leader, following Jess Wilson in Victoria and Kellie Sloane in New South Wales.

The party's internal affairs have been marked in recent years by the growing ascendancy of conservatives, who had been all but excluded from the ministry under Steven Marshall, and were further aggrieved by his government's liberalisation of abortion and euthanasia laws. Much of this has been put down to the recruitment activities of Senator Alex Antic, who proclaimed that “the days of the Liberal Party in South Australia being controlled by 25-year-old ABC-watching, Guardian-reading political staffers are over”. This has not stopped moderates providing the last two party leaders, or maintaining a dominance over the parliamentary wing that led it to reject the state council's call for net zero to be abandoned. The preselection for the Legislative Council also pointed to a divide between conservatives camps associated with Alex Antic and Nicolle Flint.