YouGov Galaxy: Labor 35, LNP 35, Greens 11, One Nation 8 in Queensland

A new Queensland state poll finds Annastacia Palaszczuk’s Labor government still in command, although both major parties continue to record weak primary votes.

The Courier Mail has disregarded my need for a snappy headline by running Queensland state voting intention results from a YouGov Galaxy poll that don’t include two-party preferred. The primary votes are Labor 35%, down one since November; Liberal National Party 35%, up one; Greens 11%, steady; One Nation 8%, down two; and Katter’s Australian Party 4%, steady. The November poll had Labor ahead 53-47, so given the movements on the primary vote, this one can presumably be read as 52-48 or 53-47. Leadership ratings are good for Annastacia Palaszczuk, who is steady on approval at 48% and up one on disapproval to 38%, and less good for Deb Frecklington, who is respectively down four to 31% and up six to 35%. Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier is 47-27, out from 43-26.

The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810. There were also federal voting intention results from the poll published yesterday, but I’m going to hold off giving that its own thread until tomorrow, it being too soon for a new federal politics thread.

YouGov Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland

Consistent with the national trend post-Turnbull, a new poll records a blowout in favour of the state Labor government in Queensland.

The Sunday Mail has a YouGov Galaxy poll of state voting intention in Queensland, which provides more evidence of a national slump in Coalition support since Malcolm Turnbull’s demise: the Liberal National Party is down three on the primary vote since August to 34%, and Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is out from 51-49 to 53-47. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 36%, while the Greens and One Nation are respectively steady on 11% and 10%. Both leaders record improved personal ratings: Annastacia Palasczcuk is up five on approval to 46%, and down one on disapproval to 37%, while Deb Frecklington is respectively up four to 35% and up three to 29%. Palaszczuk holds a 43-36 lead on preferred premier – I’m not sure that they asked this question last time (UPDATE: Apparently that should read 43-26, and has narrowed from 44-23 last time – thanks as ever to the Ghost with the most). The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839 – hopefully there will be federal voting intention numbers from the same poll in the coming days.

YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

A post-election bounce for Labor washes out in the latest Queensland state poll, as Annastacia Palaszczuk takes a five point hit on her approval rating.

The Courier Mail has results of a YouGov Galaxy poll of state voting intention in Queensland, which has Labor leading 51-49, down from 53-47 at the last such poll in May. The primary votes are Labor 35% (down three), LNP 37% (up two), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down two). Annastacia Palaszczuk is down five on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 38%, while Deb Frecklington is steady on 31% and down two 26%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, and will hopefully be followed tomorrow or the day after by a set of federal voting intention numbers.

YouGov Galaxy: 53-47 to state Labor in Queensland

The same poll that had the federal Coalition retaining a slight lead in Queensland goes solidly the other way on state voting intention.

The Courier-Mail today has part two of its YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900, this time dealing with state voting intention. Interestingly, the state result is quite a bit better for Labor than the federal one, recording Labor with a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 at the previous such poll in February, and 51.2-48.8 at the November election. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up one on the previous poll in February, and compared with 35.4% at the November election), Liberal National Party 35% (down one, 33.7% at the election), One Nation 12% (up two, 13.7% at the election) and Greens 10% (steady, 10.0% at the election).

UPDATE: Personal ratings are 46% approval (up two) and 38% disapproval (steady) for Annastacia Palaszuczuk, and 31% (up two) and 28% (up three) for Deb Frecklington, with Palaszczuk leading 47-27 as preferred premier, out from 42-31.

YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to state Labor in Queensland

Labor maintains a modest lead in the first Queensland state poll since their November election victory.

The Courier-Mail today has the first Queensland state poll since the November election, conducted by YouGov Galaxy from the same sample as the federal poll published on Saturday. It finds both major parties gaining about equally from a decline in support for One Nation, with Labor at 37% (up from 35.4% at the election), the Liberal National Party on 36% (up from 33.7%), the Greens on 10% (unchanged) and One Nation on 10% (down from 13.7%). Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 51.2-48.8 at the election. Deb Frecklington’s debut result on the question of preferred premier has her trailing Annastacia Palaszczuk 42-31, which compares with Tim Nicholls’ deficit of 43-29 at the beginning of November. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 860.

New year news (week two)

A bunch of state polling, particularly from Victoria, and two items of preselection news.

Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:

• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.

The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.

• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.