Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland

A late poll finds One Nation coming down to earth, and records a small but significant break to Labor in south-east Queensland.

The Courier-Mail has a final Galaxy poll for the campaign, which records Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead of three weeks ago. Beyond that, the main point of interest is a six point drop in the One Nation vote to 12%, with Labor up two to 37%, the LNP up three to 35%, and the Greens steady on 9%.

There are also breakdowns between regional and south-east Queensland, with the former showing support for One Nation at 20%, the LNP on 33% (down from 40.2% in 2015), Labor on 30% (down from 33.9%) the Greens on 5% (down from 5.1%), and the LNP leading 52-48 on two-party preferred (50.9-49.1). In south-east Queensland, Labor leads 54-46, compared with 52.3-47.7 in 2015, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up from 39.5%), LNP 36% (down from 41.9%), Greens 12% (up from 10.2%) and One Nation 8%.

The sample was “more than 1500” – I’m guessing the field work was Wednesday and Thursday.

Queensland seat polling round-up

Seat-level and regional Queensland election polling compiled for your reading pleasure.

I’ve acquired full results from the ReachTEL polls that Sky News published in very incomplete form on Monday, including a statewide poll and seat polls for Ferny Grove, Whitsunday and Thuringowa. The statewide poll had a sample of 2767 and regional breakdowns (North Queensland, regional Queensland and South-East Queensland), so I thought it might be useful if those results were listed alongside all of the electorate-level polling to have emerged through the campaign, which you can see over the fold.

I won’t attempt to parse the results in detail, except to note how dramatically voting behaviour stands to be shaped by who’s on the ballot paper. Gaven stands out because it had Alex Douglas and Palmer United on 22% between them in 2015, but this time there’s only Labor, LNP and the Greens. One Nation candidates look set to roughly double the vote achieved by Palmer United candidates in 2015, scooping up all their support and gouging the major parties for the remainder, at a ratio of roughly two to one between the LNP and Labor.

Continue reading “Queensland seat polling round-up”

Queensland election minus three days

As the finishing post comes into view, a mixed assortment of local developments, poll aggregation and news from betting markets.

As the clock ticks down, the poll tracker is recording it as 52.0-48.0 to Labor, although it has only been fed with three new results during the campaign period, so much of the polling having been at individual electorate level. The trend has been one of steady improvement for Labor since June, but everything remains contingent on the unknown quantity of One Nation, who are on 17.7% of the primary vote.

Bits and pieces:

• Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller, who has been a constant thorn in the government’s side since she was dumped as Police Minister in December 2015, conducted a pointedly cheery media opportunity yesterday with Pauline Hanson. It looked for all the world like Miller was laying the groundwork for a defection to One Nation, who are not fielding a candidate for her seat of Bundamba. The development greatly complicates Labor’s efforts to promote itself as the stable alternative to an LNP-One Nation alliance on the right.

• Labor chose the Gold Coast Convention Centre as the venue for its campaign launch, and featured Gaven candidate Meaghan Scanlon as one of only two supporting speakers – the other being boxing champion Jeff Horn. The LNP launch was conducted in the unfamiliar surrounds of The Triffid, a Fortitude Valley live music venue.

• Sportsbet has flipped its odds in favour of the LNP, who are in from $2 to $1.87, with Labor out from $1.75 to $1.95. Ladbrokes has gone the other way, calling it dead even at $1.88 apiece, after last week having the LNP marginal favourites at $1.83, with Labor on $1.95. However, it has Labor as favourites in 47 seats individually compared with 42 for the LNP, along with two where there’s nothing in it and two favoured to remain with Katter’s Australian Party. Nowhere is One Nation rated the favourite, the closest being Lockyer on $2.25 with the LNP on $1.62.

• Ladbrokes now has the LNP as favourites in Mundingburra, with the LNP in from $3.50 to $1.90, Labor out from $1.50 to $1.95, and One Nation out from $5.50 to $8. One Nation’s Steve Dickson has lost his favourite status in Buderim, having gone from $1.85 to $2.10, with the LNP in from $1.91 to $1.67. There also seems to have been money coming in for Hetty Johnston in Macalister, who started on $6 and is now on $2.25, although Labor remain favourites at $1.30.

ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

ReachTEL records a slight break in Labor’s favour statewide, and a mixed bag from seat polls in Ferny Grove, Thuringowa and Whitsunday.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences less than a week out from the Queensland election. This is the first time this year Labor has led in a poll by ReachTEL, which has been less favourable for Labor than other pollsters. The primary votes are Labor 34%, LNP 30%, One Nation 17%, Greens 10% and Katter’s Australian Party 3%.

There were also individual seat polls from Ferny Grove, Thuringowa and Whitsunday, although Sky News don’t appear to have published these on their website. The results confirm the general picture of Labor doing well enough in the state’s south-east (in this case leading 54-46 in Ferny Grove, a status quo result post-redistribution), but under pressure from One Nation in Townsville (50-50 in Thuringowa) and at mercy to One Nation preference flows elsewhere in northern Queensland (50.5-49.5 to Labor in Whitsunday, a 1% swing to Labor).

More detail to follow, hopefully.

Queensland election: Newspoll marginal seat polling

Numerous new polls, most notably Newspoll marginal seat results that confirm a complicated overall picture.

The Australian has six marginal seat polls from Newspoll, with samples ranging from 504 to 693, producing a mixed bag for all concerned. In descending order of good news for the government:

Mansfield (notional Labor 0.8%): Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead in the seat held by Shadow Attorney-General Ian Walker, which is one of a number of seats they will seemingly need to gain from the LNP in south-eastern Queensland to balance losses elsewhere. Labor leads 40% to 37% on the primary vote, with One Nation on 16% and the Greens on 7%. Oddly, this seat turned up one of the most favourable results on a supplemetary question conerning the Adani coal mine, which was supported by 50% and opposed by 34%.

Whitsunday (LNP 0.6%): A lineball result in 2015 that is projected to be so again this time, with everything depending on the flow of preferences from a third-placed One Nation on 19%. Labor is on 32%, down about four points since 2015, while the LNP is down nearly eleven to 31%, with the Greens steady on 7%. Lineball too on Adani, with 42% supportive and 39% opposed.

Gaven (LNP 2.8%): Another margin-of-error result from an LNP-held marginal seat, with the LNP credited with a lead of 51-49 from primary votes of LNP 50%, Labor 43% and Greens 7%. Adani records 36% support, 38% opposition.

Ipswich West (Labor 9.1%): One Nation gouge the LNP to record 29% of the primary vote, with the LNP’s 17% less than half of what they recorded in 2015. But with Labor’s 45% supplemented by 9% for the Greens, Labor records a comfortable 57-43 lead over One Nation on two-party preferred. Adani is supported by 37%, opposed by 34%.

Bundaberg (Labor 0.5%): The poll finds Labor set to lose Bundaberg to the LNP, the margin in this case being 53-47. The LNP leads 37% to 33% on the primary vote, with preferences from the 21% One Nation vote set to decide the result. This may be a seat where One Nation’s direction of preferences against incumbents may tell against Labor. The Adani question finds 33% supportive, 42% opposed.

Thuringowa (Labor 6.6%): One Nation appears set to poach this Townsville suburbs seat from Labor, skipping ahead of the LNP by 28% to 21% on the primary vote. With Labor’s primary vote at an anaemic 29%, the poll finds One Nation set to mow them down on LNP preferences and win by 54-46. This comes a week after Galaxy found the other Townsville suburbs seat, Mundingburra, flipping from Labor to LNP by a 52-48 margin. Perhaps relatedly, the poll finds emphatic support for Adani, with 52% for and 26% against.

Further poll news:

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Queensland election minus nine days

ReachTEL takes a journey into the mind of the One Nation voter, and finds the party posing a strong challenge in two conservative regional seats.

A bit of confusion surrounding the ReachTEL poll that appeared in the Sunday Mail, which asked about voting intention only as a “filter” for identifying One Nation supporters, and has not published the numbers. Sky News reported an LNP lead of 52-48 from the poll, but it is hard to say what this is based on. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 3435, but if I understand it correctly, only the 700 or so One Nation-voting respondents would then have completed the survey. Nonetheless, the poll has some interesting results, suggesting the One Nation voter base to be engorged with LNP deserters who intend to preference their old party, and have a surprisingly strong expectation that One Nation will be in government with it after the election.

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