Queensland election minus three days

As the finishing post comes into view, a mixed assortment of local developments, poll aggregation and news from betting markets.

As the clock ticks down, the poll tracker is recording it as 52.0-48.0 to Labor, although it has only been fed with three new results during the campaign period, so much of the polling having been at individual electorate level. The trend has been one of steady improvement for Labor since June, but everything remains contingent on the unknown quantity of One Nation, who are on 17.7% of the primary vote.

Bits and pieces:

• Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller, who has been a constant thorn in the government’s side since she was dumped as Police Minister in December 2015, conducted a pointedly cheery media opportunity yesterday with Pauline Hanson. It looked for all the world like Miller was laying the groundwork for a defection to One Nation, who are not fielding a candidate for her seat of Bundamba. The development greatly complicates Labor’s efforts to promote itself as the stable alternative to an LNP-One Nation alliance on the right.

• Labor chose the Gold Coast Convention Centre as the venue for its campaign launch, and featured Gaven candidate Meaghan Scanlon as one of only two supporting speakers – the other being boxing champion Jeff Horn. The LNP launch was conducted in the unfamiliar surrounds of The Triffid, a Fortitude Valley live music venue.

• Sportsbet has flipped its odds in favour of the LNP, who are in from $2 to $1.87, with Labor out from $1.75 to $1.95. Ladbrokes has gone the other way, calling it dead even at $1.88 apiece, after last week having the LNP marginal favourites at $1.83, with Labor on $1.95. However, it has Labor as favourites in 47 seats individually compared with 42 for the LNP, along with two where there’s nothing in it and two favoured to remain with Katter’s Australian Party. Nowhere is One Nation rated the favourite, the closest being Lockyer on $2.25 with the LNP on $1.62.

• Ladbrokes now has the LNP as favourites in Mundingburra, with the LNP in from $3.50 to $1.90, Labor out from $1.50 to $1.95, and One Nation out from $5.50 to $8. One Nation’s Steve Dickson has lost his favourite status in Buderim, having gone from $1.85 to $2.10, with the LNP in from $1.91 to $1.67. There also seems to have been money coming in for Hetty Johnston in Macalister, who started on $6 and is now on $2.25, although Labor remain favourites at $1.30.

ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

ReachTEL records a slight break in Labor’s favour statewide, and a mixed bag from seat polls in Ferny Grove, Thuringowa and Whitsunday.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences less than a week out from the Queensland election. This is the first time this year Labor has led in a poll by ReachTEL, which has been less favourable for Labor than other pollsters. The primary votes are Labor 34%, LNP 30%, One Nation 17%, Greens 10% and Katter’s Australian Party 3%.

There were also individual seat polls from Ferny Grove, Thuringowa and Whitsunday, although Sky News don’t appear to have published these on their website. The results confirm the general picture of Labor doing well enough in the state’s south-east (in this case leading 54-46 in Ferny Grove, a status quo result post-redistribution), but under pressure from One Nation in Townsville (50-50 in Thuringowa) and at mercy to One Nation preference flows elsewhere in northern Queensland (50.5-49.5 to Labor in Whitsunday, a 1% swing to Labor).

More detail to follow, hopefully.

Queensland election: Newspoll marginal seat polling

Numerous new polls, most notably Newspoll marginal seat results that confirm a complicated overall picture.

The Australian has six marginal seat polls from Newspoll, with samples ranging from 504 to 693, producing a mixed bag for all concerned. In descending order of good news for the government:

Mansfield (notional Labor 0.8%): Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead in the seat held by Shadow Attorney-General Ian Walker, which is one of a number of seats they will seemingly need to gain from the LNP in south-eastern Queensland to balance losses elsewhere. Labor leads 40% to 37% on the primary vote, with One Nation on 16% and the Greens on 7%. Oddly, this seat turned up one of the most favourable results on a supplemetary question conerning the Adani coal mine, which was supported by 50% and opposed by 34%.

Whitsunday (LNP 0.6%): A lineball result in 2015 that is projected to be so again this time, with everything depending on the flow of preferences from a third-placed One Nation on 19%. Labor is on 32%, down about four points since 2015, while the LNP is down nearly eleven to 31%, with the Greens steady on 7%. Lineball too on Adani, with 42% supportive and 39% opposed.

Gaven (LNP 2.8%): Another margin-of-error result from an LNP-held marginal seat, with the LNP credited with a lead of 51-49 from primary votes of LNP 50%, Labor 43% and Greens 7%. Adani records 36% support, 38% opposition.

Ipswich West (Labor 9.1%): One Nation gouge the LNP to record 29% of the primary vote, with the LNP’s 17% less than half of what they recorded in 2015. But with Labor’s 45% supplemented by 9% for the Greens, Labor records a comfortable 57-43 lead over One Nation on two-party preferred. Adani is supported by 37%, opposed by 34%.

Bundaberg (Labor 0.5%): The poll finds Labor set to lose Bundaberg to the LNP, the margin in this case being 53-47. The LNP leads 37% to 33% on the primary vote, with preferences from the 21% One Nation vote set to decide the result. This may be a seat where One Nation’s direction of preferences against incumbents may tell against Labor. The Adani question finds 33% supportive, 42% opposed.

Thuringowa (Labor 6.6%): One Nation appears set to poach this Townsville suburbs seat from Labor, skipping ahead of the LNP by 28% to 21% on the primary vote. With Labor’s primary vote at an anaemic 29%, the poll finds One Nation set to mow them down on LNP preferences and win by 54-46. This comes a week after Galaxy found the other Townsville suburbs seat, Mundingburra, flipping from Labor to LNP by a 52-48 margin. Perhaps relatedly, the poll finds emphatic support for Adani, with 52% for and 26% against.

Further poll news:

Continue reading “Queensland election: Newspoll marginal seat polling”

Queensland election minus nine days

ReachTEL takes a journey into the mind of the One Nation voter, and finds the party posing a strong challenge in two conservative regional seats.

A bit of confusion surrounding the ReachTEL poll that appeared in the Sunday Mail, which asked about voting intention only as a “filter” for identifying One Nation supporters, and has not published the numbers. Sky News reported an LNP lead of 52-48 from the poll, but it is hard to say what this is based on. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 3435, but if I understand it correctly, only the 700 or so One Nation-voting respondents would then have completed the survey. Nonetheless, the poll has some interesting results, suggesting the One Nation voter base to be engorged with LNP deserters who intend to preference their old party, and have a surprisingly strong expectation that One Nation will be in government with it after the election.

Continue reading “Queensland election minus nine days”

Queensland election: highlights of week two

ReachTEL once again comes in a few points better for the LNP than other pollsters, while Galaxy Research finds there’s nothing in it between Labor and the Greens in Deputy Premier Jackie Trad’s seat of South Brisbane.

Yesterday’s Sunday Mail had results from a ReachTEL poll of 3435 respondents conducted on Thursday, but rather than report the voting intention results, the paper instead focused on detail about the attitudes and demographics of the poll’s unidentified share of One Nation supporters. Sky News later reported the poll had the LNP with a two-party lead of 52-48, which is unchanged from the last ReachTEL poll in late September, and consistent with the pollster’s recent form. ReachTEL’s three state polls this year have been unique out of the 11 published overall in having the LNP slightly ahead on two-party preferred, rather than slightly behind. Part of the reason is the high 74.5% flow of respondent-allocated preferences from One Nation to the LNP.

Also from the Sunday Mail report:

their education is evenly split, with 31.7 per cent holding a university degree and 29.5 per cent a TAFE certificate, while 31.1 per cent ended their learning after high school, and just over 6 per cent completed their learning after primary school. While some work in construction and mining (9.4 per cent) and others in transport, health, retail and manufacturing, almost 40 per cent of One Nation supporters say they are retired or unemployed. About the same percentage live in households that are trying to make ends meet on less than $50,000 a year, and very few (4.9 per cent) earn more than $200,000. Politically, 45.7 per cent voted for the LNP at the last Queensland election, while 19.8 per cent supported Labor, and 21.1 per cent Katter’s Australian Party.

Today’s Courier-Mail has one last result from the nine electorate-level polls conducted for it last week by Galaxy Research, offering the very big finding that Deputy Premier Jackie Trad is indeed under substantial pressure from the Greens in her seat of South Brisbane. Continue reading “Queensland election: highlights of week two”

Queensland election minus 15 days

One Nation goes for the scorched earth approach on preferences, published candidate lists bring forward an array of familiar names, and a poll finds opposition to taxpayer-funded loans to Adani.

A loose assortment of recent developments:

• The Courier-Mail reports One Nation is set to preference all sitting members second last, ahead of only the Greens. The report also says the LNP is now likely to direct preferences to Labor’s Jackie Trad ahead of Greens candidate Amy MacMahon in South Brisbane, despite earlier reports that a proposal to do the opposite had won wide support on the party’s state executive.

• Nominations closed on Tuesday, and the Poll Bludger’s election guide has now been brought up to date with full candidate lists in ballot paper order. A total of 453 candidates have nominated for the 93 seats – a record in absolute terms, although the 1998 election exceeded it for average number of candidates per seat. I count ten former LNP members defeated in 2015 who are seeking to make a comeback, including three running for One Nation and two as independents (One Nation’s count of former LNP members increases to four if Buderim MP Steve Dickson is included). Perhaps the most optimistic of the bunch is independent Redlands candidate Peter Dowling, whose career as the seat’s LNP member ended ignominiously in 2015 after a personal scandal and preselection defeat.

• The contest for the Rockhampton electorate has been shaken up by the entry of local mayor Margaret Strelow as an independent. Strelow ran for Labor preselection with the support of Annastacia Palaszczuk, but was rebuffed by the locally dominant Labor Unity/Old Guard faction in favour of Barry O’Rourke, regional director of the Department of Housing.

• The Courier-Mail reports a ReachTEL poll for the Stop Adani Alliance found 70% of respondents were opposed to taxpayers’ funds being loaned to the company. The poll was conducted from 1652 respondents ten days before Annastacia Palaszczuk announced she would veto any such loan.

• Betting markets continue to see nothing in it. Despite Labor’s shaky campaign, Ladbrokes has had Labor nudging to favouritism, paying $1.83 to the LNP’s $1.95, which reverses what was on offer at the start of the week. However, the movement merely brings it closer to Sportsbet’s $1.75 for Labor and $2 for the LNP, which has been unchanged over the past week.

Update: Galaxy electorate polls

The Courier-Mail has excitingly unrolled individual electorate poll results from Galaxy Research on an hourly basis:

• The surprise packet turns out to be southern metropolitan fringe seat of Logan, where One Nation candidate Scott Bannan is far outperforming his peers to record a slight primary vote deficit, of 35% to 33%, against Labor incumbent Linus Power. However, One Nation’s flow of respondent-allocated from the 20% LNP and 12% “others” voters is not enough to overturn the Labor lead, which finishes at 52-48.

• Aside from that, results for One Nation tend to be on the modest side. In the low-income retirement haven seat of Hervey Bay, which the party won in 1998, their candidate came in third with 25% of the vote, behind LNP incumbent Ted Sorensen on 38% and Labor on 31%. This converts into a 55-45 two-party lead for the LNP, compared with an existing post-redistribution margin of 6.5%.

• The poll credits the LNP with a crucial gain in Mundingburra, with One Nation again needing to make the final preference cut. Labor incumbent Coralee O’Rourke and LNP challenger Matthew Derlagen are finally matched on primary votes of 29% and 30% respectively, with Derlagen emerging 52-48 ahead after preferences, including from One Nation on 20% and Katter’s Australian Party on 12%.

• The Rockhampton result suggests Margaret Strelow – mayor, Labor preselection aspirant and now independent candidate – is unlikely to trouble Labor, recording only 14% of the vote. This accounts for most but not all of a drop in the Labor primary vote, from 52.9% in 2015 to 33%. Labor still holds a 58-42 after preferences, but this amounts to a 6% swing to the LNP. Primary votes of 23% for the LNP (down from 30.3%) and 22% for One Nation raise the possibility that it may be the latter that makes the final count, but they would have a steep hill to climb on preferences.

• Another independent recording weak numbers is Rob Pyne, the Labor-turned-independent incumbent in Cairns, who scores only 11%. Labor leads the LNP on the primary vote 37% to 32% and finishes 54-46 ahead on preferences, amounting to a 3.5% swing to the LNP.

• The new Gold Coast seat of Bonney registers at 50-50 result, for a swing to Labor of 2.2%.

• The Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Glass House is also at 50-50, off a post-redistribution LNP margin of 0.9%.