Full displays of results:
Brisbane City Council wards election
11.42pm. My system has the Greens ahead in Paddington now, but slightly behind in Walter Taylor.
10.50pm. The ABC computer has different ideas from mine about a couple of things, notably Paddington, which it’s (again) calling for the Greens while mine has the LNP with its nose in front. This points to the difficulty of projection off an election that was held at the height of COVID, which dramatically changed how people voted. The Greens have a solid lead on the TCP count so far, but this is well behind the count for the primary vote.
10.08pm. One bright note for Labor is that they seem to have come to life in LNP-held Calamvale, which is now rated a likely Labor gain by both me and the ABC. That could see them break even after the loss of Wynnum-Manly, giving them the weak bragging right of not having done worse than last time. The ABC has retracted its call of Paddington as a Greens gain from the LNP — it and Walter Taylor both look very close.
9.54pm. I also note the ABC isn’t calling Ipswich West for the LNP — it’s projecting 52.6% TCP for the LNP whereas I have 53.2%. Mysteries abound — the TCP results on the ECQ site lag far behind the media feed, and actually have Labor ahead (from 6501 votes compared with 14,375 on the feed).
9.52pm. Actually, that’s not the reason my system is being more conservative about Walter Taylor than the ABC’s. I note that every ward result on the ABC says “0 of x centres reporting a preference count”, but preference counts have assuredly been reported. I’m not sure if this is purely a cosmetic issue or if the ABC is working entirely off preference estimates.
9.38pm. So Labor look like they are down from five BCC wards to four, having lost Wynnum-Manly to the LNP. The Greens are in the hunt in LNP-held Paddington and Walter Taylor, which both look very close, to add to their existing The Gabba. The ABC is calling Paddington for the Greens, so I suspect there is an issue here of my preference estimate selling them short — that will be corrected when a few more TCP results are through. However, their second tier hopes of Central, Coorparoo and Enoggera don’t look like coming through for them, so they will not emerge as the second strongest party.
9.35pm. I’ve devoted the last half hour to bug-hunting, at least partly because my read of a Labor disaster in the BCC ward of Wynnum-Manly didn’t seem to gel with the ABC — but now it does. That’s not to say there weren’t bugs though, one of which was stopping the two-candidate preferred tables from populating on the council wards results pages. That has now been fixed.
9.18pm. It’s been noted by preference estimates, which get used before two-candidate preferred numbers report, have been selling the Greens short in seats where they are challenging the LNP. I now have them ahead in Paddington, and a correction should soon come through in their favour in Walter Taylor.
8.41pm. A strong showing by the Greens in Labor-held Moorooka ward, where they look like taking second place from the LNP, but Labor still on track to retain it.
8.38pm. As well as Wynnum-Manly, I’m now projecting the LNP ahead in the Labor-held BCC ward of Morningside, suggesting they could be reduced to three seats. That at least raises the possibility of them being outperformed by the Greens, although it’s far from clear at this stage if they will add anything to their existing solitary seat of The Gabba (which is yet to record any figures) — there are four possibilities, but they’re not actually ahead in any of them.
8.34pm. Paddington still looks like a very close race between the LNP and the Greens with three booths in.
8.30pm. My system is now calling Ipswich West for the LNP. The projected swing in Inala is even bigger, but so is Labor’s buffer there.
8.21pm. My system is now calling six wards for the LNP, one of which is Enoggera.
8.19pm. Early figures suggest Labor are in big danger of losing Wynnum-Manly to the LNP, one of only five BCC wards they held going into the election.
8.18pm. The LNP looks like retaining Enoggera regardless of who comes second out of Labor and the Greens — my system is now favouring the latter. This was one of five LNP-held wards the Greens had identified as possible gains. Of their two presumed strongest chances, Paddington looks lineball and there is nothing in yet from Walter Taylor. Too early to say about their other second tier prospects of Coorparoo and Central.
8.13pm. While Adrian Schrinner is headed for re-election as Lord Mayor, he’s faded on my projection as the count has progressed, with a slight booth-matched swing away from him now recorded on the primary vote.
8.10pm. The good news for Labor is that my system is calling Inala for them. The bad news is that the swing is similar to the one that’s putting it on the cusp of calling Ipswich West for the LNP.
8.08pm. Early indications also point to a close LNP-Greens race in Paddington, where the Greens fancied their chances.
8.06pm. The first booth from the BCC Enoggera ward has the Greens second, but my projection has them behind Labor in a fairly close race for second. The LNP vote looks high enough for them to hold either way, but early days yet.
8.04pm. The Brisbane City booth gives the Greens an encouraging first result in the BCC’s Coorparoo ward — only 168 votes, but it points to a chance they will take it from the LNP, consistent with the party’s own expectations.
8.02pm. A booth in at last from Inala, and there too there is a huge swing to the LNP of over 20% according to my projection, with Labor’s primary vote collapsing 32.5% to 37.8%. No doubt Annastacia Palaszczuk had a big personal vote here, but still. Independent Linh Nyugen on double figures, presumably taking a bit from Labor. Bad as all this is for Labor, it doesn’t suggest they are in serious danger of losing.
8.00pm. It’s been noted that the informal vote in Ipswich West is out from 4.0% to 8.6%, which no doubt has a lot to do with an optional preferential voting council election being held on the same day as a compulsory preferential voting state by-election. Presumably this isn’t doing Labor any favours.
7.58pm. An eleventh booth in Ipswich West was obviously not good for Labor, pushing my projection of the LNP lead out from (from memory) 1.9% to 2.5% and increasing their win probability to 95%.
7.52pm. Substantial progress now in the mayoralty count, confirming what was noted before — Adrian Schrinner holding steady on his 2020 vote, and movement from Labor to the Greens but not enough to get the latter’s candidate, Jonathan Sriranganathan, to second.
7.50pm. The swing in Ipswich West continues to be big enough to make the LNP firm favourites when quite getting them to where my system would call it. The Brisbane council ward of Tennyson has been called for independent incumbent Nicole Johnston, who looks to be doing it easily.
7.43pm. Note that my mayoralty entry page does things like say certain wards have been “retained” by the LNP, which simply means Schrinner is projected to win there again. The system is geared to seat-style contests and I didn’t have time to finesse everything.
7.42pm. The lack of any action from Inala had me checking the ABC to make sure it wasn’t a fault in my system, but no, still no numbers there yet.
7.40pm. Some big lord mayoralty numbers in now, and the situation has settled quite considerably — it now looks like a status quo result with a bit of a swing from Labor to the Greens, rather than historic disaster Labor seemed to be suffering at first. Presumably this will start flowing through to the council ward results shortly.
7.37pm. Labor has perked up a little on my Ipswich West win probability with the reporting of a third two-candidate result, which presumably improved their projected preference flow.
7.33pm. On Brisbane Council, my system is now calling Bracken Ridge and LNP retain, which a huge swing blowing out what was hitherto a fairly tight margin.
7.31pm. My system has actually crossed the threshold where it’s not using my preference estimates in Ipswich West. So the 10% Labor win probability should probably be taken seriously at this point.
7.30pm. Eight booths in now on the primary vote — fast count there, slow one in Inala. Perhaps they’re prioritising by-election and council votes differently. In any case, the new Ipswich West results do not change what was written in the previous update.
7.28pm. Booth number five from Ipswich West is also less bad for Labor, being comparable to the last two. But I may have been wrong to say these booths were coming in below what the LNP needed to win the seat — I was just looking at the Labor primary vote (a lot on my plate at present). The LNP primary vote swing across the board is approaching 20%, which makes them look very dangerous. Legalise Cannabis are soaking up votes from the absent Greens and a lot depends on their preferences. My current projection assumes they will go 60-40 to Labor, but if they’re loaded with Greens voters they may get a stronger flow than that. Once there are enough two-candidate preferred votes in, my projection will go off the swing on preferences rather than my estimates.
7.20pm. From four wards, I’m recording LNP two-party swings of 4.2% to 15.0% for the lord mayoralty. It’s a similar story for the council, albeit that these are the same booths. So Labor would seem in big danger at this early stage of going backwards.
7.17pm. Two further booths from Ipswich West are better for Labor — seemingly a tad below what would cost them the seat. The two booths that came in first were well above that, so Labor will have to be hoping both were outliers. Still nothing from Inala.
7.16pm. My system is calling McDowall ward for the LNP and sees big LNP swings everywhere that a swing can be determined.
7.10pm. I’ve turned off some features that were misfiring on the mayoralty landing page. However, the primary vote numbers are suggesting a very good night for the LNP and not just in Ipswich West.
6.53pm. Remarkable first results from Ipswich West had me checking the ABC to see if there was something amiss in my system, but it concurs the LNP swing is blowing the hinges off. Still early days, but the fact that the ALP has been trounced in two booths will be giving them palpitations.
6.47pm. I’m hoping the screwiness on the lord mayoralty landing page at present will resolve when there are some numbers in that aren’t mobile booths.
6.37pm. To elaborate on that point, the swing results I have for the mobile booths are meaningless — in most cases there were zero mobile results last time, so I think I just gave them a fraction of a vote from the central pre-polling booth so the system would have something to work off. Everywhere else, the swing figures will be based on booth-to-booth comparison.
6.35pm. Two mobile booths in for the lord mayoralty, with the same issues noted in the previous update. The chart and dial on my lord mayoralty landing page won’t show anything until two-candidate preferred results are reported. Ordinarily I run projections based on the primary vote, but didn’t have time to do that in this case. A little perversely, I have projections for the mayoral results at ward level, but not overall. As always, another day to do all this would have been handy.
6.23pm. A mobile polling booth has reported 102 council ward votes in Bracken Ridge. Caution would be required here at the best of times, but especially on this occasion where mobile polling was just about non-existent last time because of COVID, making any swing figure meaningless.
6.20pm. One of the things I didn’t have time to do was code around a recurring issue where sometimes empty XML files get uploaded to my server, so I suspect there will be the odd occasion where you find the page hasn’t been filled out with data. If so, you should find it resolves after a minute or two.
6pm. Polls have closed for Queensland local government elections and Inala and Ipswich West state by-elections. The links above will take you to the Poll Bludger’s own live results pages, which I’m reasonably confident will work well in the case of the by-elections, but merely hopeful in the case of the Brisbane Lord Mayor and council elctions, which were a pretty huge undertaking and for which I was still squashing bugs up to the last, which is usually not a good sign. In any case, the first results should presumably be in in around half an hour or so.
@ steve davis 127pm
Simples- back to the future.
What was good 10 yrs ago for the LNP is good for 2024. Does the conservative leopard ever change its spots?
*So whats Crisafulli’s big vision for QLD?*
He doesn’t need one, all Big Visions are frauds on the Public, from the Peak Downs Scheme to the Brisbane Olympics.
The Qld Greens have done very well.
A breakdown by Gender might be interesting.
It appears they’re targeting Female voters, if that’s where they made the gains, then they’re on track to take Council in 2028.
No doubt these are bad results for the ALP and grim omen for what is to come in October. But – while he has made mistakes – I don’t think it’s fair to pin this all on Miles, nor do I think a change of leadership is the answer. (I might revise the latter opinion if there are further gaffes.)
This is a nine year old government which has never been super popular (apart from a brief period during the height of Covid), is utterly copping from a biased media that has finally found an issue to resonates with people in a number of key demographics, is now contending with federal drag, and was already in the midst of downward slide before Palaszczuk retired.
Its quite possible that we would be in the exact same situation right now under Palaszczuk or Dick or Fentiman, and everyone would be wishing Labor had gone with Miles instead. It’s also quite possible that none of the other realistic leadership contenders actually want the poisoned chalice right now – certainly, the fact that Dick helped Miles take the top job suggests he either doesn’t want it or is waiting for a more favourable time, like opposition.
ABC have uncalled paddington for the greens.
Real chance the final state of play ends up just being LNP +1 in Wynnum-Manly.
What a disappointment, I was expecting 4 Green gains and 2 Labor Gains.
NT Labor is facing similar problems to Qld Labor in the leadup to the election in late August. There are serious youth crime issues in parts of Darwin (especially Palmerston), and Alice Springs. And yes, for “youth” read Aboriginal youth.
Of course the media beats it up, but the beat up also reflects an underlying reality, which the CLP is very good at exploiting. The next CLP government will be just as bad as the last one. Some very ordinary people will end up as Ministers.
Outsider says:
Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 4:22 pm
…. because the ALP Ministers are so outstanding? Heh!
What does Steven Miles do to turn this around, assuming it can be done before October?
I guess it’s a matter of pure hard work, discipline, no more disasterous press conferences, and coming up with a budget that definitely addresses cost of living.
The aim probably is to limit the size of any defeat in October, so the next Labor leader, be it Cameron Dick or Shannon Fentimen, or someone else, can ideally rebuild in the runup to the 2028 state election.
My knowledge of Qld politics isn’t great, what is the Miles cabinet like, who are the decent performers, and who are the ones who are just there basically because of factional ties?
The youth crime thing obviously is a shocker for Labor in Qld, they probably need far more changes than what Miles proposed very recently, even if that upsets the civil liberties lobby in Brisbane. Being tough on crime worked for Bob Carr in NSW during the 10 years of his premiership.
Democracy Sausage
Qld, outside Brisbane/Townsville, and Cairns is a wasteland of unemployment and closed businesses.
Labor’s tactic has been to focus on where the going is good and forget the rest.
Unfortunately for them, the going isn’t any good anywhere anymore.
I generally support OPV in principle because it guards against major parties taking for granted constituencies that they think they’ve got in the bag, but it seems pretty obvious that it was pretty seriously detrimental to both Labor and Greens to the benefit of the LNP in the Brisbane council races, with both parties losing races they would likely have won with higher preference flow from the party that came third.
As for the leadership: I think the Miles blame is pretty fair. His ascension to the leadership was met with a super-lukewarm response even from a lot of Labor-sympathetic people. I think it’s pretty hard to argue that he ultimately had the worst skills as a communicator of the three candidates.
I also think his political judgment has been a bit questionable, in that he’s tried to move to the left from Palaszczuk in some areas, while being absolutely belted by the conservative press from the right. My reaction to his climate change announcements when he became Premier was essentially “I really respect this much as I’ve been previously unimpressed with him, but it’s crazy-brave for a new Premier of Queensland who’s already behind”, and unfortunately that’s proven right.
Queensland Labor really needed to come up with a coherent approach to the youth crime issue months ago rather than being continually caught on the back foot and having to respond rashly. I think they would’ve been wise to talk to Dan Andrews – who, for all his progressivism, was a master at sticking close enough to the police that he couldn’t be competently wedged on crime (even if I fiercely disagreed with the policy outcomes, I can’t fault the political outcomes).
As I type this at 8:33 pm AEST 17 March, the site is showing a probability of LNP 93.9% for Paddington. Is this an error?
Good old Murdoch media.. Their the people whom hate Labor and Labor lets them dominate…
In Queensland their carrying on about crime and the homeless, once the Liberals are in they will not give a shit about it… and what are their solutions to deal with the property crisis… what are they?
Federal Labor should have taken on Murdoch two years ago but instead they let them ruin Labor…
And all around Australia where they dominate their waiting to tear Labor down… They have good headlines for a year or so when their elected and then it is all false and emotional rubbish, never anything good. When will Labor learn? Murdoch carries on about foreign ownership but Murdoch isn’t he a foreign owner? Perhaps Labor should do something about these foreigners owning our media?
My own view is Labor is getting primed for a two-prong pummelling.
The Libs are going to hit outer-suburbia and regional centres hard on CoL and crime, I think . The Greens are (as usual) being very careful about where they expend their resources and energy. The two inner-urban seats they were competitive in 2020 – McConnell and Cooper, and I imagine they’ll make a strong play for Bulimba too.
Of course, by-elections tend to have outsized swings – especially in the circumstances HOWEVER, no one should take these results as anything but bad for Labor in October.
Labor needs a big and policy-focused Budget and backed by an election campaign focused on two key concepts – we understand these challenges and this is what we are doing and the LNP have no policies and no ideas – their only plans are to win and figure out the rest later.
My own view is Labor is on track to lose 15-ish seats at the moment – which is enough to put the LNP into Government. Honestly, I thought Labor would get a smack and drop into minority and need to rely on the Greens … but the vibe is clearly frustrated, and if the ALP is under 40 seats, they won’t have a prayer of forming govt. It’s not irretrievable, but it’ll take a lot, we’ll see how the next couple of months go.
JT:
Agree with all of that.
Would be a shame to see the ALP lose Cooper, as the local member Jonty Bush is excellent and deserves to be reelected. But she’s going to have a really tough fight against the Greens.
Rebeccasays:
Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 7:34 pm
“I generally support OPV in principle because it guards against major parties taking for granted constituencies that they think they’ve got in the bag, but it seems pretty obvious that it was pretty seriously detrimental to both Labor and Greens to the benefit of the LNP in the Brisbane council races, with both parties losing races they would likely have won with higher preference flow from the party that came third.”
At this stage CPV instead of OPV would on have made a difference in two seats – Northgate and Wynnum Manly, so possibly two extra wards for the ALP and none for the Greens. So possibly instead of 18-5-2-1 maybe 16-7-2-1.
In my opinion the ALP will be lucky to hold any seat with a margin under 10% (thats a loss of 23 seats) as well as Cooper.
It will at least then be amusing to see what the LNP can do about crime, ramping, and homelessness.
Ramping occurs under all Governments, if the casualty is conscious the Ambos and Fireys may have a chat at the scene while the poor dope on the stretcher is still on the road, once they get the all clear, it’s off to the ramp.
Homelessness and Street Crime are issues of great concern to women, since they generally have much less money than men and are much more vulnerable to attack.
Crisafulli has already announced a program to financially assist poorer women getting to Training, job interviews, and work.
Sure, it’s a band aid approach, Labor would do well to steal it, but I bet they won’t.
Would be a shame to see the ALP lose Cooper, as the local member Jonty Bush is excellent and deserves to be reelected. But she’s going to have a really tough fight against the Greens.
Jonty Bush last election had the disadvantage of a popular MP Kate Jones pulling out at the last minute. The sophomore surge should help counter the Greens. Whether it will be enough is another question. But I know Victorian Labor state MP Kat Theophanous was written off retaining Northcote last Victorian state election. Because the Liberals were preferencing the Greens, and she was able to hold it narrowly. That’s why you need to be careful circling seats for the Greens based on council results. Dislodging Labor incumbent state MP’s just because the Greens got a spike to their vote running against Liberal held council seats can be deceiving.
Labor have been in power 30 of the past 35 years. The last 9 years have been a bonus. After the wipeout of 2012, they should be just getting ready to come back into power about now (see NSW) .
It is no great surprise that they might lose in October.
The surprise is that they could still win.
certainly, the fact that Dick helped Miles take the top job suggests he either doesn’t want it or is waiting for a more favourable time, like opposition.
@Asha
Cameron Dick wanted the top job, he always wanted the top job. The plan was to parachute him in Woodridge to lead Labor out of the wilderness. But when Annastacia Palaszczuk shocked everyone by winning the 2015 Queensland state election. The plan by the Right that Dick would be the party’s savior was scrapped.
There was no scenario he was going to get the top job after Palaszczuk was forced to resign. Dick simply didn’t have the numbers. Dick had to settle on deputy, but even then he wasn’t the first choice. Shannon Fentiman was offered it, but refused because she was determined to go for the top job. Which some in party were not pleased with, and felt did it to her own detriment.
Any chance you will be updating the results in the 3 wards in doubt? Calamvale, Paddington and Northgate?
The current numbers on the site are, at the time of writing, the latest ones out of the ECQ.
it aeems dickdoes not have the nukmbers aparently miles left faction controls the q l d labor party it will also be good for federal labor to have astate l np governmentits good to have governments of different parties
Aaron Newton:
Sure, a clusterfuck of an LNP government getting in here will probably be to federal Labor’s benefit. But it will be fucking terrible for Queensland.
Plus, even if Crisafulli goes the full Campbell Newman (you’d assume he’s a little more savvy than that, though I once thought the same thing about Newman!), I’m not sure the inevitable backlash would quite come quickly enough for fed Labor to reap the benefits in a 2025 election. It took at over a year for people to begin properly turning on Newman, by which point Abbott was in power.
Although an LNP state government still in the midst of a honeymoon is probably still preferable for the Feds (from a cynical electoral perspective) than a toxic Labor state government – I have read some relatively convincing arguments that LNP being in office at a state level in 2013 prevented Labor’s federal losses in Queensland from being as bad as some of the polling suggested it would be.
Antony Green reports that absent votes have secured Paddington for the Greens. Unfortunately, technical issues mean I won’t be able to update results until tomorrow, and for some reason the ECQ’s website has consistently been lagging behind its own media feed.
If you don’t look behind the ‘no change’ numbers on BCC seats you miss the very interesting realignment of votes that appear to be going on.
From a 11.4% swing AGAINST LNP in Deagon to a 13.2% TOWARDS LNP in Wynnum-Manly.
That’s a range of 24.6% on the swing (or double that, 49.2% on the change, whichever way you want to look at it).
What’s really fascinating is those 2 seats mentioned above had the identical LNP 2PP vote at the previous election: 38.6% to Labour’s 61.4% (assuming PB’s swing % figures are correct, that’s what I’m going by).
Now Deagon is 27.2% LNP to Lab 72.8%
And Wynnum-M is 51.8% LNP to Lab 48.2%
So one is now a LNP seat and the other appears one of Labor’s safest seats.
Quite remarkable IMHO.
ABC:
‘Queensland’s electoral commission is under scrutiny after widespread complaints of people being turned away from voting at last weekend’s council elections.’
‘Residents across Queensland complained about Saturday’s long queues at polling booths and ballot shortages that caused hundreds of people to be turned away without voting.’
From my own experience and observation, it seems the ECQ got hairy-chested about saving money by severely cutting back the resourcing of polling places.
The Commissioner didn’t help the next day by condescendingly dismissing complaints with the suggestion that voters should have gone elsewhere to avoid long lines. It was busy all over, all day.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-21/queensland-local-government-election-issues-ballot-shortages/103610162