The Poll Bludger

Tomorrow’s Newspoll has the Coalition leading on two-party preferred for the first time year, not counting the ridiculously quirky result of May 28-30. That lead however is as narrow as they come, being 50.5-49.5. The 2.5 per cent shift to the Coalition from last week is in contrast to the other weekly polls which showed a boost to Labor from their campaign launch, but in ACNielsen’s case this was coming off what was clearly a rogue result. Morgan today released its weekly face-to-face poll which returned Labor to its customary position lead, although 51.5-48.5 is still less than what they’re used to from this organisation. Also today the News Limited tabloids carried the third fortnightly poll of the campaign from Galaxy Research, who have turned in remarkably consistent results. This poll has the Coalition ahead 52-48, an identical result to ACNielsen, but they seem to have done inordinately well out of minor preferences – at 45 per cent, their primary vote is at the lower end of what would be considered a winnable position for them.

ACNielsen today offers the first comprehensive poll taken entirely after both parties’ launches. It finds the Coalition ahead 52-48 on two-party preferred and, in keeping with the organisation’s other recent results, with a striking 48 per cent on the primary vote. The poll apparently includes a question on Senate voting intention that shows the Greens on 12 per cent and the Democrats on 5 per cent, but until the full report is available little can be added to what the Sydney Morning Herald has to say.

Having dragged his heels in running through the various Senate contests, the Poll Bludger today offers two for the price of one – first Queensland, then Western Australia. As usual, we begin with a look at where your preferences will go if you, like most people with normal lives to lead, vote above the line. Attempts by various parties to obscure what they are up to by submitting needlessly complicated tickets don’t cut it here – this is based entirely on the order of the candidates that matter.

Labor: Greens; Hetty Johnston; Democrats; Family First; Liberals for Forests; Liberal; Nationals; One Nation; Pauline Hanson.

Liberal: Nationals; Family First; Hetty Johnston; Liberals for Forests; Democrats; Greens; Labor; Pauline Hanson; One Nation.

Nationals: Liberal; Family First; Hetty Johnston; Liberals for Forests; Democrats; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Greens: Liberals for Forests; Democrats; Labor; Hetty Johnston; Liberal; Nationals; Pauline Hanson; Family First; One Nation.

Democrats: Hetty Johnston; Family First; Liberals for Forests; Greens; half-Liberal, half-Labor; Nationals; One Nation; Pauline Hanson.

Pauline Hanson: One Nation; Hetty Johnston; Family First; Liberals for Forests; Liberal; Nationals; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

One Nation: Pauline Hanson; Hetty Johnston; Liberals for Forests; Family First; Nationals; Democrats; Greens; Liberal; Labor.

Hetty Johnston: Democrats; Family First; Liberals for Forests; Pauline Hanson; One Nation; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Nationals.

Family First: Hetty Johnston; Democrats; Nationals; Liberal; Pauline Hanson; One Nation; Labor; Liberals for Forests; Greens.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Labor; Democrats; Hetty Johnston; Liberals for Forests; Family First; Liberal; Nationals; One Nation; Pauline Hanson.

Liberals for Forests: Labor; Hetty Johnston; Democrats; Liberal; Family First; Nationals; Greens; Pauline Hanson; One Nation.

Fishing Party: One Nation; Nationals; Pauline Hanson; Hetty Johnston; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Liberals for Forests; Democrats; Greens.

H.E.M.P.: Greens; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Liberals for Forests; Nationals; Family First; Hetty Johnston; One Nation; Pauline Hanson.

Non-Custodial Parents Party: Hetty Johnston; Pauline Hanson; One Nation; Family First; Liberals for Forests; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Democrats.

As always, Labor and Liberal are each assured of two places. The third place-holders on the Liberal and Nationals tickets, Russell Trood and Barnaby Joyce, face their own battle to be the Coalition’s third contender. In 2001, 2.9 per cent of the vote separated the Nationals’ Ron Boswell from the Liberal candidate (Russell Trood once again) which was given another 1.1 per cent of padding when preferences from Call to Australia, who aren’t running this time, went to Boswell. This time the Nationals will have to settle for the Fishing Party. Morgan’s Senate poll had them on just 3 per cent, while a survey of 929 voters on the Gold Coast (once a strong area for the National Party) published by the Gold Coast Weekend Bulletin on September 25 had them on 5 per cent. While it is true that the Nationals traditionally do better than the polls suggest, the Liberals seem well in the hunt to displace them.

Hetty Johnston, Family First and the sentimental favourite of every psephologist, Senator John Cherry of the Australian Democrats, have emerged as a mutually-preferencing voting bloc that will put whoever emerges first out of the three into serious contention. Johnston has a head start here because each of the other two has her ahead of the other, while the opposite is true of Family First. There’s a good chance that whoever makes it through could edge the Coalition out of a third place and make it home on their surplus. Pauline Hanson’s only chance of winning serious preferences is if she can outperform this three-party bloc, in which case she will pick up Hetty Johnston’s vote. Hanson would also get preferences from the Non-Custodial Parents Party and also the Fishing Party if the Nationals were knocked out, but would need to at least match her 10 per cent vote from 2001 to stand much of a chance. The Greens should be able to knock Labor’s third candidate out of contention, but since Labor’s surplus to their second quota was just 3.2 per cent in 2001, it may not deliver them enough preferences to put them over the line. The combined vote for the Greens and their preference-feeders, Socialist Alliance and Help End Marijuana Prohibition, will need to be about 11 per cent. For what it’s worth the aforementioned Morgan and Gold Coast polls had the Greens on 8.5 and 11 per cent respectively.

Here’s what others think. Malcolm Mackerras: "In Queensland, my belief is that the Democrats will retain their existing seat (John Cherry) while the Nationals will take the seat of the Hansonite, Len Harris. My predicted distribution for the Coalition is two Liberal and one National. But it is possible there could be three Liberals, with the National Party missing out. I hold out virtually no hope for the either of the famous Queensland female Senate candidates, Pauline Hanson (Group K) or Hetty Johnston (Group O). While each has her own box above the line, the lack of description for that box is a major disadvantage". Charles Richardson at Crikey thinks it "a real lottery. My best guess is 2 Liberal, 2 ALP, 1 National and 1 Green, but the Democrats and Hetty Johnston are both in with a chance, and a rough shot for the famous red-headed one". Antony Green declares it "very difficult to work out" but eventually agrees with Richardson. The Poll Bludger will go out on a limb and predict three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. My basis for tipping a National Party failure is that the Boswell-versus-Hanson contest attracted a great deal of attention to the National Party and their popular incumbent in 2001, whereas the Nationals are fielding an unknown this time and Hanson is not being taken as seriously.

Over in the west:

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Family First; Liberals for Forests; Liberal; One Nation.

Liberal: Family First; Liberals for Forests; Democrats; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Nationals: Liberal; Greens; Democrats; Family First; Labor; One Nation.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberals for Forests; Liberal; Family First; One Nation.

Democrats: Liberals for Forests; Family First; Greens; half Liberal, half Labor; One Nation.

Liberals for Forests: Democrats; Greens; Liberal; One Nation; Family First; Labor.

Family First: Democrats; Liberal; Liberals for Forests; Labor; Greens.

One Nation: Family First; Liberals for Forests; Democrats; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Christian Democratic: Family First; Liberal; Liberals for Forests; One Nation; half-Labor, half-Greens; Democrats.

Peculiarities include the Nationals favouring the Greens over the Democrats and Family First, and a complicated effort from the Christian Democrats that appears to betray embarrassment that half of their preferences will go to the Greens’ Rachel Siewert ahead of Labor’s Emi Barzotto. The Poll Bludger doesn’t care to waste too much time on this one because he’s very confident the result will be three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. However, Charles Richardson thinks that "Democrats, One Nation and Family First, together with some preferences from micro-parties and surplus from a major party, might put together a quota between them", potentially electing either Family First or the Democrats.

For the second time in the campaign the Launceston Examiner has run results from a poll conducted by EMRS covering about 200 voters in each of Tasmania’s five electorates and again the results are bad for Labor, perhaps implausibly so. The following table details the latest figures (which come from the days before Labor’s campaign launch on Wednesday) with results from the survey of three weeks earlier in brackets.

The Lyons result can be safely written off but it could be that Labor will indeed have their margins garnished here and in Braddon, although it’s unlikely to be enough to cost them the seats. Bass on the other hand is looking as interesting as ever and will be the subject of intense scrutiny when the first results come in on Saturday, which will happen earlier than for mainland electorates since Tasmania is the only state to have already begun daylight savings.

Also today, The Sunday Age carries an ACNielsen poll of two Victorian seats from a sample of 1013. La Trobe is a Liberal-held seat with a retiring member and a margin of 3.7 per cent, while McMillan is held by Labor’s Christian Zahra but was made notionally Liberal with a margin of 2.9 per cent following the redistribution. In keeping with the Poll Bludger’s current assessments for these seats, Labor is narrowly ahead in McMillan (52-48 – Coalition 45 per cent, Labor 42, Greens 7) and slightly behind in La Trobe (49-51 – Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 35, Greens 13). The latter result suggests a slightly excessive flow of minor party preferences to Labor.

A Taverner poll in today’s Sun-Herald is one of the few polls of the campaign to show Labor looking good in decisive marginal electorates. The samples are small, but the poll has the virtue of having been taken on Wednesday and Thursday evening, after the Labor campaign launch. The seats in question are the New South Wales Liberal-held marginals of Eden-Monaro, Parramatta and Dobell along with the endangered Labor seat of Greenway. The first two of these were covered by yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald and Canberra Times polls but the Sun-Herald offers contrasting results, with Labor leading 60-40 in Parramatta and 52-48 in Eden-Monaro (bearing in mind the margins of error would be in the order of 10 per cent). The disparity between the Parramatta results is a bit alarming but ACNielsen, with a sample of 1002, would have to be given the greater weight. Pooling the Eden-Monaro result with that from yesterday’s equally small sample poll in the Canberra Times suggests a very slight Liberal lead, in keeping with general expectations. It appears that Taverner’s results from Eden-Monaro and Parramatta are from samples of about 300 while the results from Dobell and Greenway, where Labor respectively leads 54-46 and 51-49, are derived from 100 voters who are being tracked throughout the campaign. It may not be much to go on but these results are the first evidence that Medicare Gold has hit its mark, as the same voters were favouring the Liberals 51-49 and 54-46 three weeks earlier. The Poll Bludger has thus been fortified in his current assessment that Labor will respectively gain and hold these seats. Also today Newspoll offers its collective survey of 12 picked marginal electorates which, in contrast to their recent aggregate polling, shows the Coalition leading 52-48. The poll, like Taverner’s (which covered three of the same seats), was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening.

In "late" news, The Advertiser yesterday ran a poll of 686 voters in the marginal Labor Adelaide seat of Kingston. In contrast to their polling in nearby Liberal seats, this showed Labor well ahead by 56-44 on two-party preferred. Primary vote after distribution of the 14 per cent undecided: Labor 45.5 per cent, Liberal 37, Greens 7, Family First 4.5, Democrats 3.5.

Two polls taken after the Liberal launch on Sunday and before Labor’s effort on Wednesday suggest Labor will need every bit of the bounce that Medicare Gold can offer them if they are to win two vital New South Wales seats. Parramatta is one electorate where Labor had been feeling confident, thanks in large part to the misadventures of Liberal member Ross Cameron. But today the Sydney Morning Herald carries a poll from ACNielsen that shows Cameron with no less than 49 per cent of the primary vote (in keeping with their recent pattern of remarkably high primary results for the Coalition) and a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, despite recording "the highest recognition rating ACNielsen has recorded in an electorate this election". In fact, "of those people who know who he is, 54 per cent approve of the job he is doing". The sample is a substantial 1002, high enough for the report to feel comfortable discussing the margin of error (an all too rare feature of Australian opinion poll reporting, as discussed by an excited Terry McCrann of the Herald Sun). In the equally important seat of Eden-Monaro, a commenter at Christopher Sheil’s Back Pages reports that a poll in today’s Canberra Times has Liberal member Gary Nairn leading Labor’s Kel Watt 54-46. More bad news for Labor with Roy Morgan’s weekly phone survey, which continued to charter new territory for the organisation in finding a further increase in the Coalition’s lead, now at 52.5-47.5. Unfortunately, ACNielsen are not forthcoming with a full national poll this Saturday.

If Medicare Gold really is going to swing older voters, the one electorate where the impact should be clearest is the coastal Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, ranked number one in the country in the table in the posting below. Today The Advertiser (print version only, it appears – thanks to reader Phil Robins for passing on the figures) carries a poll of this electorate taken a few hours (too few, perhaps) after the package was launched on Wednesday and it shows the Liberals with a very handy lead in a seat where their departing member Chris Gallus was reckoned likely to take about 3 per cent of her personal vote with her into retirement. Primary vote figures are Liberal 46 per cent, Labor 36, Greens 5 and Democrats 2, with Liberal leading 53-47 on two-party preferred.

The Poll Bludger’s Runs on the Board tally has remained stuck in a very narrow band since week two of the campaign, when the Coalition opened up a slim lead as polling trends suggested soft support for Labor in decisive Queensland marginals. There were a few occasions when potential circuit breakers looked set to prompt a substantial revision in favour of one side or the other, but each time ambiguous poll results suggested it was safer to favour the status quo.

However the early evidence suggests that Labor’s snappily branded Medicare Gold package, promising to eliminate waiting lists for the elderly, has cut through more effectively than the Coalition’s more expensive but also more diffuse bag of tricks from their launch on Sunday. Centrebet promptly slashed its odds for a Labor victory from $3.30 to $2.70, and here apologies are in order for my failure to have mentioned before now the remarkable research conducted by Andrew Leigh of the Australian National University showing betting markets to be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than opinion polls.

The Poll Bludger is no expert on demography, but thanks to the Australian Parliamentary Library’s electorate demographic rankings (of which Alan Ramsey had a fair bit to say in the Sydney Morning Herald) he doesn’t need to be. The target audience for this one is clear – older voters on lower incomes. Below are Coalition marginal seats and their proportion of voters aged 65 or over, with their ranking among the 150 House of Representatives seats in brackets (percentages calculated by Peter Brent at Mumble).

The Poll Bludger knocked up a similar table for average taxable income shortly after Labor’s tax cuts for lower income earners were announced, and a cursory comparison of the two shows why Labor has chosen to make the bigger play out of the health policy, launching it later in the campaign and preceding it with Mark Latham’s declaration that the election was "a referendum on Medicare". Where one had to venture beyond 2 per cent territory to find electorates with a significant proportion of winners from Labor’s tax policy (though the family benefits may have been another matter), Medicare Gold hits hard where it matters most – Dobell, Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Paterson, Deakin and Richmond, every one a knife-edge marginal and many among those where they were looking in danger of falling short.

Of course, Labor’s best yield of all should come in seats where both target groups are in abundance, and here a clear pattern emerges – the five outstanding examples are coastal electorates outside Sydney and Melbourne, and no less than four are held by the National Party. These include Richmond, located on the New South Wales side of the Queensland border, renowned for its caravan parks and sea-change retirees, and held by junior minister Larry Anthony; its neighbours Page and Cowper, held by back-benchers Ian Causley and Luke Hartsuyker; and the Victorian seat of Gippsland, held by Science Minister Peter McGauran, a once rural conservative electorate that absorbed the depressed Labor-voting towns of Morwell and Traralgon in the redistribution. The one Liberal-held seat is also on the New South Wales north coast – Paterson, held by back-bencher Bob Baldwin (pardon the alliteration).

There are a number of seats here currently assessed by the Poll Bludger as wins for the Coalition where a rethink will be in order if the next polls show a substantial bounce to Labor. If last week’s pattern is followed, Morgan will today release a phone poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday, with an ACNielsen poll taken from Tuesday to Thursday to follow tomorrow. But regardless of what these polls show, it would be prudent to bear in mind the precedents of 1980 and 1993 when scare campaigns in the last week over Bill Hayden’s "wealth tax" and John Hewson’s GST helped secure one last term for the Fraser and Keating governments.