EMRS: Liberal 39, Labor 26, Greens 12, JLN 9 in Tasmania

A poll conducted shortly after the Tasmanian election was called finds the Jacqui Lambie Network well placed to win seats and the Liberals unlikely to recover their majority.

The quarterly Tasmanian state voting intention poll from EMRS has made a well-timed arrival, showing the Liberals steady since November on 39% (as compared with 48.7% at the 2021 election), Labor down three to 26% (28.2% at the last election) and the Greens steady at 12% (12.4% at the last election). The Jacqui Lambie Network was included as a response option for the first time and recorded 9%, a substantially more modest result than the 20% recorded over New Year by YouGov, though in this case the option was not provided for respondents in Clark, where the party is not fielding candidates. Its inclusion presumably has something to do with a three-point drop in independents to 14%.

Despite Labor going backwards on voting intention, Rebecca White is up three on preferred premier to 38%, with Jeremy Rockliff steady on 41%. The poll was conducted from February 15 to 21, starting a day after the election was called, by live interviewer phone polling from a sample of 1000.

Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Essential Research follows Resolve Strategic, though not Newspoll, in finding Labor in its weakest position since the election.

Newspoll aside, it’s been a week of soft polling for Labor (see also the previous post on the Dunkley by-election), including their weakest result this term from Essential Research. With the undecided component down a point to 4%, it finds the Coalition up a point to 35% and Labor down one to 30%, respectively their best and worst results this term, with the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. The Coalition also leads on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure for the first time, up two to 48% with Labor down three to 47%.

The monthly leadership ratings nonetheless find Anthony Albanese up a point on approval to 42% and steady on disapproval at 47%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 44%. A number of further questions inquiry into the leaders’ and parties’ performance in different policy areas. A monthly national mood question finds a one-point increase in right direction to 33% and steady on wrong track to 49%.

High awareness was recorded for last week’s asylum seeker arrivals in Western Australia and the release of immigration detainees (66% and 61% respectively), and finds 59% of the view that the government is taking too long to put those released back into detention and 51% of a view that the government is “losing control of its borders”. Sixty-two per cent supported criminalising doxxing (described in the question as “the public release of personally identifiable data (e.g. phone numbers, addresses, social media details) with malicious intent”) with only 19% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1145.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition drawing level on two-party preferred for the first time since December, erasing Labor’s 52.5-47.5 from last week, with Labor down two-and-a-half points on the primary vote to 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.

Nine Newspapers have published further results from the Resolve Strategic poll, including one finding 36% in favour of nuclear energy, 23% opposed and 27% “open to the government investigating its use”. On the revised state three tax cuts, 52% were in favour and 14% opposed, with 37% considering the $146,400 threshold for greater and lesser tax cuts under the stage three changes to be about right, 14% too low and 17% too high.

A series of questions on other potential changes found 40% supportive and 26% opposed to reducing negative gearing concessions, 36% and 24% for reducing capital gains tax concessions, 28% and 29% for reducing franking credits, 39% and 22% for scaling back concessions on family trusts, 59% and 16% for “tax reform to help make buying a first home easier for younger people”. A question on the revised stage three tax cuts found 52% supportive and 14% opposed.

Dunkley by-election minus four days

A second poll emerges pointing to a tight race in Saturday’s Dunkley by-election.

Following an earlier poll by uComms for the Australia Institute showing Labor leading 52-48, a second Dunkley by-election poll has emerged from YouGov showing the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, accounting for an existing Labor margin of 6.3%. However, the poll is based on a very modest sample of 394, with the pollster calculating an effective margin of error of 6.1% after taking the effects of weighting into account. The primary votes are 40% for Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy, compared with a 32.5% Liberal vote in 2022; 33% for Labor candidate Jodie Belyea, compared with 40.2%; 9% for Greens candidate Alex Breskin, compared with 10.3%; 7% for independent Darren Bergwerf, who polled 3.9% when he ran in 2022; and 11% for the four other candidates. The poll was conducted from February 15 to 22.

As ever, both sides are keen to manage expectations before the event, with Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reporting the Liberals are anticipating a swing in their favour of 3% to 4%, only slightly exceeding their 2.7% swing at the Fadden by-election last July. A separate report in the Financial Review last week said both sides were “nervous”, with Labor figures expressing concern that right-wing activist group Advance was “cutting through” with advertising targeting the government over the cost of living and the release of immigration detainees.

Tasmanian election minus four weeks

New independent contenders continue to emerge ahead of the closure of nominations on Thursday.

The electoral roll closed last Wednesday with 80,126 on the roll in Bass, 83,875 in Braddon, 74,236 in Clark, 82,238 in Franklin and 87,722 in Lyons, an overall increase of 3.5% at the 2021 election. Looming milestones include the close of nominations on Thursday, the announcement of candidates on Friday and the opening of early voting next Monday.

Other news:

• Jeremy Rockliff has rejected the Australian Medical Association’s calls for the disendorsement of Bass candidate Julie Sladden, whom the ABC reports “repeatedly questioned the safety of COVID vaccines and described Tasmania as an ‘autocracy’ during the COVID period”. Sladden is a general practitioner and emergency medicine doctor who closed her practice in 2021 after refusing to be vaccinated.

• Two Hobart councillors, Louise Elliot and Ben Lohberger, will join a crowded field of independents in Clark, along with incumbent Kristie Johnston and former Liberal member Sue Hickey. Elliot ruled out running in the first week of the campaign, but now plans to run on landlords’ rights after the Liberals committed to policies including strengthening the right of tenants to own pets. Lohberger is a founding member of Save UTAS and says he will introduce legislation to stop it selling its Sandy Bay campus.

• Elsewhere, Latrobe mayor Peter Freshney will run as an independent in Braddon. Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley, a Liberal factional conservative who ran unsuccessfully for Senate preselection and the party’s state presidency, floated the possibility of running as an independent in Franklin last week, but now says he will remain a member of the Liberal Party.

Polls: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Little change from Newspoll, but the first Resolve Strategic poll for the year produces a somewhat unexpected fillip for the Coalition.

The Australian reports the three-weekly Newspoll shows no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48, and little change on the primary vote, with Labor down one to 33%, the Coalition steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation down one to 6% and others up two to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Peter Dutton respectively steady at 37% and up one to 51%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, out slightly from 46-35. The report provides no information on field work dates or sample size, but the last one was Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1245.

UPDATE: It turns out to have been Monday to Friday, with the sample again 1245. Respondents were also told of “a proposal to build several small modular nuclear reactors around Australia to produce zero-emissions energy on the sites of existing coal-fired power stations once they are retired”, of which 55% approved and 31% disapproved.

We also have from Nine Newspapers the first Resolve Strategic poll since late November/early December, which is at at odds with its competitors in recording movement to the Coalition: up three points to 37%, with Labor and the Greens each down a point, to 34% and 11% respectively, and One Nation up one to 6%. My own estimate of two-party preferred based on preference flows in 2022 is a narrowing from around 54.5-45.5 to 52-48. This pollster had hitherto been comfortably the strongest series for Labor, but these numbers bring it back to the field.

There are also peculiarities on personal ratings: Anthony Albanese records a five-point increase in approval (or to be more precise, the sum of his good plus very good results) to 41% with disapproval (poor plus very poor) down one to 47%, but his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-28 to 39-32. Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 35% and down three to disapproval to 45%. Further findings from the poll include 52% support and 14% opposition to the revised stage three tax cuts. It was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.

US South Carolina Republican primary live

Trump set to effectively seal the Republican nomination contest by crushing Haley in her home state.

Live Commentary

8:47am Monday Haley won one of SC’s seven districts, so she avoided a delegate wipeout. But it’s still a 47-3 delegate split in Trump’s favour. I will cover the UK Rochdale by-election on Friday AEDT.

5:20pm With almost all votes counted, Trump wins by 59.8-39.5, a 20.3-point margin. There were almost 756,000 Rep primary votes, compared with just over 131,000 for the SC Dem primary. Trump has won 44 of the 50 delegates, with results for two Cong Districts uncalled. These will need results by CD before they can be called.

1:23pm With 75% in, Trump leads by 59.7-39.6, and the NYT needle is forecasting a final margin of Trump by 19. This was a thumping victory for Trump in his only remaining opponent’s home state. He leads by 61 points in national Rep polls, and has massive leads in California and Texas, which vote on Super Tuesday March 5. If Haley stays in until ST, she’s likely to be buried.

12:13pm With 34% in, Trump leads by 59-40. The NYT needle is now at Trump by 20.

11:58am There were just over 131,000 total votes in the Feb 3 South Carolina Dem primary that Biden won with 96%. With 21% counted in today’s Rep primary, there are already over 158,000 votes.

11:51am With 13% in, Trump leads by 58-42. The NYT needle has returned to Trump by 23 after briefly having him winning by 26.

11:40am Votes counted so far are early votes according to NYT analyst Nate Cohn. Election day vote likely to be more pro-Trump.

11:32am Trump now up by only 53-46 as Charleston reports, but the NYT estimate is for a final margin of Trump by 23.

11:29am Columbia has just reported, reducing Trump’s statewide lead to 55-44 with 3% in.

11:07am Trump has been credited with 44 of SC’s 50 delegates, presumably winning the state and five of the seven districts by large margins.

11:05am South Carolina has been CALLED for Trump based on exit polls before any votes have been counted. Here’s the NYT results page.

7:44am It looks like late gains for Haley in SC, with the final Trafalgar group poll, conducted Wednesday to Friday US time, giving Trump a 21-point lead, down from 30 points in the previous Trafalgar poll in mid-February. But it’s still likely to be a big win for Trump. And there’s no sign of any gains for Haley in national polls.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Polls close at 11am AEDT today for the South Carolina Republican presidential primary.  This is Nikki Haley’s home state, and she was governor from 2011 to 2017.  But Donald Trump leads Haley by 63.6-32.9 in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of SC Republican polls.  The last polls were taken a week ago, and two of the last four polls had Trump’s lead in the low 20s.

In national Republican polls, Trump leads Haley by 77-16, while in national Democratic polls, Joe Biden leads Dean Phillips by 75-7.  Most national general election polls show Trump leading Biden by low single-digit margins, and Trump is likely further advantaged by the Electoral College system.

South Carolina is the first state to use a winner takes all/most formula to allocate its Republican delegates.  The 29 statewide delegates go to the statewide winner, and the 21 district delegates (three for each of SC’s seven Congressional Districts) are allocated to the winner of each district. With Trump’s large lead, he is likely to take a clean sweep of all 50 delegates.

On Super Tuesday March 5, 15 states hold Republican contests including the two most populous states of California and Texas.  All of California’s 169 delegates go to the winner if a vote majority is reached (which is almost certain as there are only two candidates remaining).  In Texas, the 48 statewide delegates go to the state’s winner, and the 114 district delegates (three for each of Texas’ 38 districts) go to the district’s winner.

Trump has massive leads in FiveThirtyEight polling averages of both California and Texas.  He leads Haley by 83-13 in Texas and by 73-19 in California.  California is a strongly Democratic state at general elections, but only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary.

Less than 4% of Republican delegates have currently been allocated, but after Super Tuesday that will increase to 47%.  For Democrats, 42% of delegates will be allocated by Super Tuesday.  By March 19, 69% of Republican delegates and 64% of Democratic delegates will be allocated, and Biden and Trump will almost certainly have clinched their parties’ nominations.

Weekend miscellany: issue polling, Cook preselection, retirements and more (open thread)

Rising concern about housing affordability and immigration, but signs of improving sentiment on the economic front.

New polling from the past few days:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706.

• Two recent issue salience polls – the SECNewgate Mood of the Nation report and JWS Research’s True Issues survey – continue to find cost of living well in the lead as the issue of greatest concern, but with housing affordability and interest rates narrowing the gap. Immigration and border security, while still well down the lists, are up in both surveys, by five points to 13% in the case of JWS Research. The latter’s “performance index” scores across various issues record “population growth” as the issue on which the government has lost the most skin over the past year. The SECNewgate poll was conducted February 1 to 5 from a sample of 1588, while JWS Research was from February 8 to 11 and a sample of 1000.

• DemosAU found 51% supportive and 32% opposed to the tax cut changes in a poll of 1154 respondents conducted from February 1 to 13, while the SECNewgate poll had it at 60% and 21%. The latter also recorded improvement since October on national direction (with the right-wrong direction split narrowing from 37-63 to 44-56) and predictions for the economy, particularly for the “in twelve months” time frame (from 25% better and 48% worse to 39% better and 36% worse).

Also:

• Samantha Hutchinson of the Financial Review reports a field of five has emerged for the looming federal by-election in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, including Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce and McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy, who have generally been reckoned the front-runners, and the likewise previously noted Gwen Cherne, Veteran Family Advocate commissioner. The other two are Alex Cooke, head of institutional and private banking at ANZ, and Benjamin Britton, a former United Australia Party candidate and presumably a long shot.

• Western Australian Labor Senator Louise Pratt announced earlier this week she will not contest the next election. Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports the party’s state secretary, Ellie Whiteaker, has “emerged as the front runner” after confirming her interest in replacing her on the ticket. Whiteaker is a former staffer to Pratt and shares her association with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.

• Two significant Liberal Party events will be held this weekend: the preselection for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022, between Matt Moran and Tom White; and a meeting of the New South Wales state council that among things will vote on a motion to expel Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.

• Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports the Liberal preselection for Forrest, previously thought to be a lock for former Senator Ben Small, will in fact be a contest involving Bunbury councillor Gabi Ghasseb, who won an internal party appeal against his exclusion for submitting his nomination 20 minutes after the deadline (and who has also nominated for state upper house preselection). However, Small “remains the overwhelming favourite”. Incumbent Nola Marino recently announced she would not seek another term.

uComms: 50-50 in Queensland

Labor draws level in a Queensland state poll for the first time in over a year.

The Courier-Mail has a uComms poll of Queensland state voting intention showing a tie on two-party preferred, compared with a 51-49 lead for the LNP in a similar poll just before Christmas, shortly after Steven Miles succeeded Annastacia Palaszczuk as Premier. This is the first Queensland poll not to show the LNP in front since December 2022, although its leads tended to be fairly modest. After allocating a forced follow-up question for the 12.5% initially undecided, the primary votes come out at 34.2% for Labor (down 0.2%), 37.3% for the LNP (down 0.7%), 12.2% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 7.7% for One Nation (up 0.4%) and 3.9% for Katter’s Australian Party (down 0.1%).

David Crisafulli nonetheless records a narrow 51-49 over Miles on a forced response preferred premier question, in from 52.2-47.8 last time. Steven Miles is rated positively by 44.2% (up from 42.7%), neutrally by 25.2% (down from 27.6%) and negatively by 25.2% (down from 27.6%). Crisafulli is 41.7% for positive (up from 37.8%), 31.2% for neutral (up from 30.2%) and 18.7% for negative (down from 22.8%). The sample for the poll was 1743, with field work dates not provided in the Courier-Mail report.

Further news related to the state election to be held on October 26:

• Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath announced yesterday she would retire at the election, creating a vacancy in her northern Brisbane seat of Redcliffe, which she holds on a margin of 6.1%. Kerri-Anne Dooley, founding director of a home care nursing firm, will make her fifth attempt to win the seat for the LNP. The Australian reports Corinne Mulholland, former federal candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos, is the favoured candidate of Steven Miles, “but several sources say she is reluctant to stand”.

• The southern Brisbane seat of Mansfield, held for Labor by Corrine McMillan on a margin of 6.8%, will be contested for the LNP by Pinky Singh, Indian-born public relations consultant, Order of Australia medal recipient and candidate for McConnel in 2020.

• James Ashby, high-profile adviser to Pauline Hanson, will be One Nation’s candidate in Keppel, which the party came within 3.1% of winning on 2017. Brittany Lauga holds the seat for Labor with a margin of 5.6% over the LNP.