The Poll Bludger

By popular demand, I hereby open a new thread for discussion of the extraordinarily tight three-way race in the Victorian upper house region of Southern Metropolitan. Earlier expectations that the final seat would come down to a race between Labor’s Evan Thornley and the Greens’ Sue Pennicuik have been undone by an unexpectedly strong performance by the Liberals on postals, which has strengthened the hand of their third candidate David Southwick. Remarkably, the current result in quota terms is 3.00 for the Liberals, 1.99 for Labor and 1.00 for the Greens, making it a near-perfect three-way tie in the race for the final seat. The Greens have suffered the worst in late counting, such that the possibility has emerged of the Liberals winning the seat with a tiny surplus that helps elect Thornley, who will receive it as preferences ahead of the Greens’ Sue Pennicuik. The irony of Liberal preferences delivering Labor an upper house majority is being widely remarked upon, though their decision to put the Greens last always meant it was a serious possibility. Antony Green explains in comments that this is a rare occasion where below-the-line votes will prove decisive, so that "the models where you treat below-the-line votes as ticket votes" – such as the calculators at Upperhouse.info – "are too crude in such a close count":

What you need to do now is break the count into above and below the line votes. Add the tickets of Family First and the DLP to the Liberal vote. Add the Democrat ticket to the Greens, and People Power and Group C tickets to Labor’s vote. At this point, none of these three totals reaches a full quota, though the Greens are the closest. The balance is determined by the below the line votes. Unless the relative percentage of Labor, Liberal or Green increases against the other, none of these totals will reach a quota. The real unknown is what happens if enough BTL votes drift to the Greens. If this happens, then the Democrat ticket will elect the Green, and release a small number of ticket preferences for Labor … What Labor needs to win the last spot is for as many BTL votes to drift to the Greens before the Democrat ticket is distributed. Unless the relative %’s of the party change again, on the current count Labor will need a surplus from the Greens to win the last spot.

The Poll Bludger’s lower house predictions left a bit to be desired – I underestimated the Nationals, failed to spot Labor’s troubles in Gippsland, missed Russell Savage’s defeat in Mildura, punted on some roughies that failed to come home (Eltham and South West Coast) and got suckered in by some faulty conventional wisdom (South Barwon and Melbourne). However, I can claim to have salvaged some pride with my upper house predictions, all of which are looking good except my call of three Liberal and two Labor in Western Victoria, which will likely be the other way round (UPDATE: See below). Given that my prediction was for a total of 20 seats for Labor, the Western Victoria bonus would give them the magic 21 seats and an absolute majority in the 40-seat chamber. Bearing in mind that the VEC still only has results in from 1744 out of 2416 voting centres, the picture appears as follows in the eight regions listed in rough order of interest (if any).

SOUTHERN METROPOLITAN

1. David Davis (Liberal)
2. John Lenders (Labor)
3. Andrea Coote (Liberal)
4. Sue Pennicuik (Greens)
5. Evan Thornley (Labor) leads David Southwick (Liberal)

Labor is coming perilously close to having its star candidate Evan Thornley lose to the third Liberal. The Greens have a quota without much room to spare after preferences from the Democrats boost them from 15.64 per cent to 17.31 per cent, above the magic number of 16.67 per cent. Similarly, Evan Thornley starts out with Labor’s 14.98 per cent surplus over the first quota and just gets there with preferences from independent Rita Bentley (0.38 per cent) and People Power (1.37 per cent), boosting him to 16.73 per cent. He will further get the Greens surplus if he needs it, which on current figures will boost him 0.60 per cent to a total of 17.33 per cent. That gives him an uncomfortable lead of 0.66 per cent; if this lead evaporates, Family First preferences will put the Liberals’ David Southwick over the line. It is interesting that Rita Bentley is giving Thornley such a valuable boost, as her preference ticket singles him out for special treatment – Thornley is in third place behind Bentley’s running mate Geoff Taylor, while the other Labor candidates are behind the Liberals.

WESTERN VICTORIA

1. Jaala Pulford (Labor)
2. John Vogels (Liberal)
3. Gayle Tierney (Labor)
4. David Koch (Liberal)
5. Elaine Carbines (Labor) leads Peter Kavanagh (DLP)

With Labor and Liberal winning two seats each, the final seat has emerged as a contest between Labor and the Greens with the tide continuing to flow to Labor. At the critical point of the count, Labor leads 9.13 per cent to the Greens’ 8.46 per cent (their 8.17 per cent primary vote plus preferences from the Socialist Alliance). Whichever of the two emerges in front will get to a quota on the preferences of the other, leapfrogging either the Nationals or the DLP. (UPDATE: The previous statement was based on the erroneous assumption that Labor preferences would go to the Greens rather than the DLP. In fact, if Labor falls behind the Greens – which is reckoned to be at least possible by those in the know – their preferences will deliver the seat to the DLP).

WESTERN METROPOLITAN

1. Justin Madden (Labor)
2. Khalil Eideh (Labor)
3. Martin Pakula (Labor)
4. Bernie Finn (Liberal)
5. Henry Barlow (Labor) leads Colleen Hartland (Greens)

After the first four seats go three Labor and one Liberal, Labor is leading the Greens in the race for the fifth seat. Labor has 9.31 per cent over the third quota against the Greens’ total of 9.14 per cent. Labor is then boosted by preferences from People Power (1.24 per cent) and the DLP (0.99 per cent), while the Greens get preferences from the Democrats (0.94 per cent) – leaving Labor with a lead of 11.54 per cent to 10.08 per cent at the critical point of the count. Whichever of the two ends up behind here will propel the other over the second Liberal candidate (7.80 per cent boosted to 11.72 per cent after Family First preferences).

EASTERN METROPOLITAN

1. Richard Dalla Riva (Liberal)
2. Shaun Leane (Labor)
3. Bruce Atkinson (Liberal)
4. Brian Tee (Labor)
5. Jan Kronberg (Liberal) leads Bill Pemberton (Greens)

After the election of two Liberal and two Labor candidates, the fifth place emerges as a close contest between Liberal and the Greens. The Greens appeared to have the edge earlier in the count, but the tide has continued to flow in the Liberals’ direction. The Liberals are currently on 11.72 per cent above their second quota, with the Greens on 10.30 per cent. With the Liberals further boosted by 4.36 per cent from the strongly performing Family First, the current result at the final count is Liberal 17.48 per cent and the Greens 15.86 per cent – surely an unbridgeable gap.

NORTHERN METROPOLITAN

1. Theo Theophanous (Labor)
2. Jenny Mikakos (Labor)
3. Matthew Guy (Liberal)
4. Nazih Elasmar (Labor)
5. Greg Barber (Greens)

The remarkable thing about the DLP’s near-miss was that it was not entirely down to the strength of their preference arrangements, which were inferior to those of People Power and the Democrats. Their vote of 4.85 per cent may well have been boosted by their position on the far left of the ballot paper, echoing their strong 2.3 per cent Senate vote when they were similarly placed in 2001. It was suggested on that occasion that they had benefited from confused Labor voters. However, the miracle ultimately failed to eventuate because the Greens vote has steadily increased to 16.09 per cent as counting has progressed, lifting them above a 16.67 per cent quota with the addition of 1.13 per cent from the Democrats as preferences.

NORTHERN VICTORIA

1. Candy Broad (Labor)
2. Wendy Lovell (Liberal)
3. Damian Drum (Nationals)
4. Donna Petrovich (Liberal)
5. Kaye Darveniza (Labor)

The collective Coalition vote was 50.54 per cent, or a clear three quotas. With the Liberal vote on 28.65 per cent (11.98 above the first quota) and the Nationals on 21.89 per cent (5.22 per cent), these seats went two Liberal and one Nationals. Labor polled 30.05 per cent (13.38 per cent over a quota) to the Greens’ 6.86 per cent; to that the Greens could add only a tiny Coalition surplus plus further preferences from some surprising sources, with the Christian Democratic Party and the DLP both putting the Greens ahead of Labor. That still left them well short of a quota, with Labor coasting home on preferences from Family First (3.66 per cent) and the Country Alliance (2.32 per cent).

EASTERN VICTORIA

1. Philip Davis (Liberal)
2. Matt Viney (Labor)
3. Edward O’Donohue (Liberal)
4. Peter Hall (Nationals)
5. Johan Scheffer (Labor)

A straightforward result with a clear two quotas to Labor (35.36 per cent) and three for the Coalition after the addition of Family First preferences. The Nationals polled 9.70 per cent against the 4.65 per cent Liberal surplus over the second quota, and thus emerged with the third Coalition seat.

SOUTH-EASTERN METROPOLITAN

1. Gavin Jennings (Labor)
2. Adem Somyurek (Labor)
3. Gordon Rich-Phillips (Liberal)
4. Bob Smith (Labor)
5. Inga Peulich (Liberal)

Another refreshingly straightforward outcome with Labor on just over three quotas (50.72 per cent) and the Liberals just over two (33.50 per cent).

UPDATE: A seat I had initially overlooked in the summary below, Morwell, has undergone a very interesting turn in late counting. Where the ABC’s end of night figure had Labor 2.2 per cent ahead, the current VEC figure has them 2.4 per cent behind. Unless I am mistaken, this is because a notional Labor versus Liberal two-party count was conducted last night when in fact it was that Nationals that came second; a Labor versus Nationals count was conducted today, and the Nationals did considerably better on preferences than the Liberals. With Morwell, Mildura and three upper house seats in the bag, the strength of the Nationals’ performance has possibly been the election’s biggest surprise.

A quick whiz through noteworthy seats in the short time available before my internet allocation expires. A similar effort for the upper house will hopefully follow later today.

Bayswater (Labor 2.8%): Clear Liberal win with a 5.7 per cent swing.

Bentleigh (Labor 4.8%): Outstanding result for Labor member Rob Hudson, who picked up a 2.4 per cent swing.

Eltham (Labor 4.8%): Contrary to the Poll Bludger’s prediction, Steve Herbert picked up a 1.9 per cent swing and won easily.

Evelyn (Labor 0.3%): Liberal Christine Fyffe, who lost her seat in 2002, returns to parliament after picking up a 3.1 per cent swing.

Ferntree Gully (Labor 2.3%): At the end of last night, the Liberals led by 0.3 per cent; the latest figures have it at just 0.1 per cent, or 75 votes.

Gembrook (Labor 1.6%): Labor’s Tammy Lobato doggedly holding on to a narrow lead, which has widened fractionally from 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent (251 votes).

Hastings (Labor 0.9%): A Liberal gain with a 2.5 per cent swing.

Kilsyth (Labor 2.1%): Still very much in doubt, with the Liberal candidate leading by 0.2 per cent (139 votes).

Melbourne (Labor 1.9% versus Greens): I believe the ABC computer’s early prediction of a clear Greens win here last night was due to the fact that it was unable to account for the influence of new voters in the Docklands; older booths that came in first swung to the Greens, and the projection was extrapolated from these swings (UPDATE: A more considered analysis from Anthony van der Craats in comments). Now that the dust has settled, Bronwyn Pike has in fact picked up a 0.5 per cent swing and is well and truly out of the woods.

Mildura (Independent 18.5% versus Nationals): Russell Savage’s vote fell from 52.1 per cent to 34.2 per cent; Nationals up from 25.3 per cent to 40.3 per cent; Liberals up from 10.0 per cent to 11.5 per cent; Labor down from 9.2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. Nationals win by 6.1 per cent on two-candidate preferred.

Mount Waverley (Labor 2.3%): This seems to have swung the Liberals’ way in recent counting – after narrowly trailing late in the evening, they now lead by 0.2 per cent (104 votes).

Narracan (Labor 6.8%): A clear and unexpected win to the Liberals following an unheralded revolt against Labor in Gippsland, perhaps due to water issues. Liberal candidate Gary Blackwood leads by 1.8 per cent on two-party.

Prahran (Labor 4.4%): The ABC computer shifted this back into the doubtful column at one point fairly late in the count, but current figures indicate there has been no swing at all.

Richmond (Labor 3.1% versus Greens): Richard Wynne has widened his margin over the Greens to 6.4 per cent.

Rodney (Nationals 10.0% versus Liberal): Labor preferences helped deliver the Liberals a 5.9 per cent swing, but not enough to cost Paul Weller the seat.

10.55pm. I take it there will be no more updates from the ABC. My final thought for the time being is that this could be yet another cruel result for the Greens, who cannot be certainly of winning anything. The count for Melbourne has progressed a little further on the VEC site, and the 2PP count has Bronwyn Pike 1.9 per cent ahead, suggesting she is home and hosed. As for the upper house, at best they could get up in North Metro, East Metro and South Metro, but these seats are respectively at risk from the DLP, the Liberals and Labor. In fact, my own tip would be that they will only emerge with North Metro.

10.29pm. Slightly drunken note-taking from Antony Green’s call of the upper house board. Kerry O’Brien says “Labor strategists” believe Labor might win 20 or 21 seats and the Greens might not win anything. But on current information, the scoreboard reads: EAST VIC : 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Nationals. NORTH VIC: Labor 2, Liberal 2, Nationals 1. WEST VIC: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. EAST METRO: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony says, “strong chance of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor”. NORTH METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony didn’t mention the prospect of a DLP win. SOUTH-EAST METRO: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. SOUTHERN METRO: 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. But Antony tips that the Liberals will overtake the Greens. WEST METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. I personally was not expecting the Greens to win a seat here. Antony says there is a “chance” of a fourth Labor seat at the Greens’ expense, which is what I had predicted.

10.21pm. Labor won Bellarine quite easily, slightly contrary to my expectations. The Libs won Benambra quite comfortably after an early fright. Swing against Labor of 8 per cent in Bendigo East, but Labor up-and-comer Jacinta Allan still wins quite easily. Somewhat smaller swing of 5 per cent in Bendigo West. Good win for Labor in Bentleigh. Greens vote slightly up in Brunswick, so they still ran second, but not enough to trouble Labor. Inadequate swing against Labor of 1.4 per cent in Burwood. Steve Herbert might even pick up a swing in Eltham, making me look like a dill because I tipped him to lose. Evelyn one of my few calls for a Liberal gain which have come good. Liberal still ahead by 0.3 per cent in Ferntree Gully. Small swing to Liberal in Frankston, but nowhere near enough. Gembrook still very close. Not much trouble for Craig Ingram in Gippsland East. Liberals should get over the line to gain Hastings. Family First has somehow scored 12.6 per cent in the Labor stronghold of Kororoit. Bronwyn Pike’s primary vote in Melbourne is 46.3 per cent, which you’d think would be enough. Labor just ahead in Morwell; I don’t think much has changed in the lower house count for a while. Antony says there has been ‘a lot of slow counts’. Mount Waverley in doubt, but I would expect Greens preferences to get Labor over the line. The big surprise for me (and indeed for John Brumby) is the clear Labor defeat in Narracan. Labor did it easy in Northcote over the Greens. The Libs won the primary vote in Prahran, but the Greens were on 19.7 and Labor are home. Disappointing result for the Greens in Richmond, with the Labor vote up to 48.3 per cent. Nothing became of the Liberal threat to the Nationals in Shepparton, or the Liberal threat to Labor in South Barwon. Denis Napthine did it quite easily in South West Coast.

10.20pm. Still only 53.5 per cent counted in Melbourne, but the tide is unmistakably towards Labor.

10.01pm. Anthony van der Craats, who was a lone voice in his apparently correct call that Labor would hold Melbourne earlier in the evening, still thinks the DLP are looking good for a seat in Northern Metropolitan.

9.49pm. Antony Green doing the call of the board – always my favourite bit. Will take notes as it goes and pump them out in a minute.

9.48pm. I’ve now drunk that one beer too many, but from what I can gather of what Antony Green just said, his guess for the upper house is Labor 19, Liberal 13, Nationals 3, Greens 4, People Power 1. I would be surprised if one Greens seat and the People Power did not fall away in later counting.

9.38pm. I suspect currently in-doubt lower house seats are likely to remain so for this evening. Will continue to follow the upper house count.

9.28pm. The ABC projection still has People Power’s Gabriela Byrne on track to win a seat in Eastern Victoria. But we’re talking about 32,854 votes here, scarcely 10 per cent of the total. Their vote is on 3 per cent – I suggest that this is from rural booths and will come down when the big centres come in.

9.27pm. Steve Bracks delivering his victory speech.

9.25pm. The ABC computer has Labor’s lead over the Greens in Melbourne down from 0.7 per cent to 0.2 per cent, but this is a contest where the computer is of less use as a guide than usual. The Liberal lead in Ferntree Gully has narrowed sharply, from 1.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent. Little change in Gembrook, where Labor holds a very fine lead.

9.17pm. Just having a look at Antony’s upper house projections – it appears that these are based on the actual upper house count, which is at a very early stage. At the moment: NORTH VIC, 2 Labor; 2 Liberal; 1 Nationals. EAST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 People Power. WEST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Nationals. NORTH METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. EAST METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. SOUTH METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. WEST METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. SOUTH-EAST METRO. 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. A couple of Greens wins there that would surprise me.

9.10pm. Similarly, Hastings is still down as doubtful on the ABC site, but the Liberals’ 1.2 per cent lead will be hard to reel in.

9.09pm. Labor 1.1 per cent ahead in Forest Hill, which you’d think would be enough.

9.08pm. The ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Melbourne, by 0.7 per cent.

9.07pm. I earlier said the Liberals had fallen behind in Ferntree Gully, but I may have read it wrong – they are 1.1 per cent ahead, not behind. No change in Gembrook, Labor still 0.3 per cent ahead. Labor has hit the lead in Mount Waverley – behind 0.1 per cent last I checked, they now lead by 0.3 per cent, and the trend seems to be heading in their direction. Labor 0.5 per cent ahead in Kilsyth.

9.06pm. Baillieu boasts of a “very significant swing against the government, of around 2 per cent”. Ptuh.

9.03pm. Ted Baillieu conceding defeat. Has he done enough?

9.00pm. Antony Green has just dropped into comments to alert us to the ABC’s upper house results.

8.58pm. Another addition to the ABC doubtfuls list is Melbourne, which has gone from Greens gain to Greens ahead – possible props to Anthony van der Craats, who appeared out on a limb earlier with his talk of a Labor win.

8.57pm. Labor’s lead in Prahran has fallen, such that the ABC computer has switched it from Labor retain to Labor ahead.

8.55pm. Results like the high CEC vote in Broadmeadows make it harder to extrapolate the upper house outcome than I would have thought. A DLP upset is not out of the question, but a Greens win is more likely.

8.53pm. Still a very low count in Melbourne – and as Antony Green points out, we are less experienced at reading Labor versus Greens swings than Labor versus Liberal swings. The margin has narrowed considerably and Bronwyn Pike is not gone yet. John Brumby says his scrutineers paint a different picture from Antony’s projections and they are a strong chance.

8.52pm. 4.5 per cent for the Citizens Electoral Council in Broadmeadows.

8.47pm. On the lower house vote, the results in the Northern Metropolitan upper house region are about 55.7 per cent Labor, 21.8 per cent Liberal, 15.3 per cent Greens. I’m about to have a play with those figures at the Upperhouse.info calculator.

8.40pm. Click here if you want early upper house figures. If you can make any sense of them, drop me a line.

8.38pm. The Liberals have fallen behind in Ferntree Gully and Gembrook – they formerly lead by 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, and now trail 0.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent. Their lead in Mount Waverley has narrowed from 0.3 per cent to 0.1 per cent.

8.34pm. Jessica in comments asks for details on South Barwon. The Liberals have picked up a disappointing 2.8 per cent swing and will not win the seat. Returned member Michael Crutchfield has just appeared on ABC TV, vowing swift vengeance upon his enemies.

8.33pm. Yes, the Nationals contested 17 last time and 20 this time.

8.32pm. Aggregate Nationals vote up from 4.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent, although they may have contested more this time.

8.25pm. Kilsyth looking interesting: Liberals ahead on the primary vote; Family First have done almost as well as the Greens on the primary vote, so they won’t close the gap on preferences as easily as they’re used to.

8.25pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Morwell. So it would appear that the booths in towns like Traralgon have behaved very differently from the rural booths, and may be on their way to saving Brendan Jenkins.

8.23pm. Antony Green reckons Labor looks “pretty good” in Hastings, but that sounded like an overstatement at first – I now realise he meant only that they’re doing well to be in the hunt.

8.21pm. The ABC computer has downgraded Morwell from Liberal gain (which is wrong, because the Nationals are far ahead of them) to Liberal ahead; Forest Hill is now Labor ahead rather than Labor retain.

8.14pm. Self-flagellation time (because it’s all about me, you see). I was clearly wrong about Mildura (a Nationals gain), South Barwon and Eltham (retained by Labor), South West Coast (retained by Liberal), Morwell (won by the Nationals, although the ABC site says Liberals – presumably because it factored in a Labor versus Liberal two-party contest) and Rodney (which I said the Liberals would win from the Nationals, though I qualified it by saying it dependend on the Labor how-to-vote card, which I don’t know about). I picked the Liberals to win Ferntree Gully, Gembrook and Mount Waverley, but they are very slightly behind in each -by 0.1 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 0.3 per cent.

8.12pm. The raw figures in Melbourne look all right for Labor, but it’s obviously the apartment blocks that are coming in first because Antony’s swing calculation is 10.6 per cent to the Greens.

8.10pm. Labor “ahead” in Ferntree Gully – by 0.1 per cent.

8.09pm. Both Brunswick and Northcote are now down as Labor retain on the ABC site, so the Greens have not pulled rabbits out of the hat there.

8.07pm. Despite the apparent win in Melbourne, the Greens do not seem to be doing quite as well as expected on some measures. I was told to expect that they would run second in Albert Park, but that’s not the case at the moment. Still too early to say anything about the upper house.

8.05pm. Richmond still down as doubtful on the ABC computer, but my own information is that Labor should win.

8.04pm. Primary vote totals with about a third counted have Labor on about 42 per cent, Coalition 40 per cent, Greens 9 per cent, Family First 4 per cent – roughly what the polls said, except Greens slightly lower and Family First higher.

8.03pm. ABC computer now has Bayswater as a Liberal gain.

7.59pm. Family First polling very well, in the 4 per cent ballpark. Preferences should prohibit them from winning an upper house seat.

7.58pm. John Brumby says Narracan is “a serious problem for us”. He is surprised, and so am I. The ABC has it as Liberal gain, which I hadn’t noticed before. ABC also has Morwell down as a gain for the Nationals, meaning they have picked up from seven to nine and might even retain party status.

7.56pm. Looks like Russell Savage really has lost Mildura to the Nationals, who actually look poised to increase their number of seats, in the lower house at least.

7.55pm. ABC has changed Benambra from Liberal ahead to Liberal retain.

7.54pm. Lineball in Mount Waverley – both margin and swing are 2.3 per cent.

7.54pm. ABC TV says only a small Liberal swing in Frankston (margin a bit over 5 per cent), at which the Libs were throwing money like it was going out of fashion.

7.53pm. Labor looking good in Bentleigh but likely to lose Bayswater.

7.48pm. Antony has helpfully extrapolated total results for the upper house regions – the Greens are higher than I figured in South Metro and lower in North Metro, possibly even low enough in the latter to not win the seat. But this could be distorted – for example, the Docklands booth is in but a lot of the Fitzroy/Collingwood booths are not.

7.47pm. Labor reportedly untroubled in Prahran.

7.44pm. Still can’t find complete results from the ABC site, but the doubtful seats include Ferntree Gully, Hastings, Kilsyth and Mount Waverley (Liberal leading), and Gembrook (Labor leading). Also in the mix are the Liberal seats of Benambra and Box Hill.

7.43pm. Labor at least holding their ground in the similarly marginal Eltham, which I had picked as a Liberal gain.

7.41pm. Labor holding their ground in Mordialloc, which required a swing of about 4 per cent to lose.

7.38pm. ABC computer calling Melbourne for the Greens.

7.37pm. Liberals look to have retained South West Coast, contrary to my quirky prediction. Still a lot of talk about Morwell, which could go to the Nationals.

7.36pm. Looking like a big swing against Labor in their very marginal seat of Kilsyth.

7.33pm. To those alarmed by the alleged Family First gain in Caulfield, Antony has confirmed it is a computer error.

7.33pm. Is it my imagination, or have the seat-by-seat results on the ABC site disappeared? Someone give me a link if they can help.

7.31pm. Fairly solid swing to the Libs in Gembrook, which they should gain.

7.28pm. Antony says an overall swing against Labor of 3 per cent, slightly at the lower end of market expectations. Bit over 10 per cent counted.

7.27pm. Antony’s computer has Evelyn as a Liberal gain.

7.26pm. According to Ian in comments, Jenny Macklin says it’s looking very good for Labor in Richmond.

7.25pm. More encouraging for Labor in Richmond – the Greens vote is down 5.5 per cent in the Richmond South booth, worth about 2 per cent of the total.

7.24pm. Hotham Hill booth in Melbourne, worth about 4 per cent of the total, also showing strong enough results for the Greens to win them the seat.

7.20pm. Bit more than 10 per cent counted in Forest Hill – Libs ahead on raw figures, but Antony calculates an inadequate 3.7 per cent swing. The margin is a bit over 5 per cent.

7.20pm. Antony Green pretty much calling the election for Labor.

7.19pm. Ian in comments says Russell Savage has conceded Mildura, suggesting it might not be such a bad night for the Nationals after all. I would have held off a bit longer if I were Russell.

7.18pm. Antony’s computer calling Rodney for the Nationals – this was the one seat where Labor was directing preferences against them, unless I’m much mistaken.

7.16pm. ABC looking at Benambra, tipped by some as a possible upset Labor win. There is in fact a swing to the Liberals. No chance of Bill Baxter winning the seat for the Nationals.

7.16pm. Early results in South Barwon show a smaller swing against Labor than I anticipated.

7.13pm. Big swing to the Liberals in Caulfield, where they seemed to be campaigning harder than they needed to be. At least that’s what Antony Green says – Robert Doyle says he hears the opposite. My money’s on Antony.

7.12pm. The large-ish Docklands booth in Melbourne is in, but it’s new and can’t be compared with an old result. Liberal 39.5, Labor 35.1, Greens 23.0 – remembering this is a very different area from the rest of the seat.

7.10pm. Uneven results in Mount Waverley – small swing to Labor in a smallish booth, big swing to Liberal in a bigger one.

7.07pm. Similar swing in the similarly marginal Kilsyth, off slightly fewer votes.

7.05pm. One booth in from Ferntree Gully (worth 1.6 per cent); Antony calculates the swing at 2.3 per cent, making it very close.

7.05pm. A quite large booth in Hastings has Family First on an impressive 6.6 per cent; Labor down 1.1 per cent, Liberals down 4.4 per cent, Greens down 2.5 per cent.

7.03pm. First booth in from Bayswater looks promising for the Liberals.

7.00pm. John Brumby sounding slightly more optimistic about Evelyn than I indicated.

6.58pm. Big early swing to Ted Baillieu in Hawthorn.

6.58pm. 4.7 per cent counted in Evelyn, 3.2 per cent swing to the Liberals – enough to win them the seat.

6.58pm. And now Savage says “the trends are” that he will lose.

6.57pm. Still early days, but indications Russell Savage is far from home and hosed in Mildura.

6.56pm. 3 per cent counted in Macedon, Labor holding firm.

6.55pm. Narracan up to 4.0 per cent counted, almost enough to be interesting, shows a 10 per cent swings to the Liberals – but these would be regional booths, with Labor’s strong area of Moe still to come.

6.54pm. John Brumby also notes strong Greens performance in Mount Waverley.

6.53pm. First booth in from Melbourne, worth about 200 votes, has Labor down 6.5 per cent and the Greens up 2.2 per cent, confirming that Bronwyn Pike is in trouble.

6.50pm. Less than 2 per cent counted in Ripon, swing to the Liberals just under 2 per cent.

6.43pm. By my reckoning the first booth in Mount Waverley has Labor steady on the primary vote and as much as 4 per cent on two-party. But we’re talking about 1 per cent of the vote here.

6.41pm. Ditto John Brumby’s call of a fall in the Liberal primary vote.

6.41pm. Robert Doyle speaking of early results flowing against Russell Savage, sounding a little too cocky a little too early for my money.

6.40pm. Very early Seymour results (1.0 per cent), Antony’s computer calls a 6.2 per cent swing to Labor. There are three booths here.

6.39pm. 0.9 per cent counted in Mildura. Obviously a strong Nationals booth – they strongly lead independent member Russell Savage, who I do not expect to be troubled.

6.39pm. Don’t listen to me – Antony Green’s computer shows a swing to the Nats. The figures are much too small to be meaningful.

6.36pm. Very early, very small number of votes in Lowan (one of the few safe Nationals seats) suggest a drop in the Nationals vote.

6.30pm. Votes are in from the Mount Buller booth in Benalla – all 28 of them. Just thought I’d mention it.

6.28pm. Seven booths allegedly in from quite a few places – obviously a test of some sort. Looking like the VEC site will not be providing booth results, unless I’m missing something.

6.16pm. Front page of the VEC results page says seven booths are in from Scoresby and Bayswater, which sounds a bit unlikely. In any case, no results are up.

6.02pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s Victorian election night coverage, live from the salubrious Richmond Hill Hotel (three stars, budget rooms from $45 a night). Polls are now closed, and the very first results should be online in about half an hour.

Via Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo, figures from a Benambra electorate poll in the Border Mail which do not appear to be available online: Liberal 45 per cent, Labor 31 per cent, Nationals 17 per cent, Greens 4.5 per cent. This strongly goes against my earlier suggestion that the seat might be an outside chance of an upset Labor win; no idea of the sample size though (UPDATE: Zoom in comments says it was just over 300). For more on late polling, see two entries below.

UPDATE (25/11/06): Newspoll paints the rosiest picture for Labor of any of the polling agencies, with a two-party lead of 56-44. It is interesting to see how this has shaped The Australian’s coverage, which reaches markedly more negative conclusions about the Liberal campaign than The Age, where an ACNielsen poll has Labor’s lead at 53-47. More details forthcoming as hard copies come to hand.

At long last, I present my assessment of the state of play in the upper house. I always reserve the right to change my mind up until the close of polls, and that goes double here because there are no doubt subtleties that I have missed. If anyone thinks they can spot any, please raise them in comments.

Northern Metropolitan: The key test here is likely to be the combined Labor and Greens vote, which will produce three seats for Labor and one for the Greens if it adds up to more than two-thirds of the total. Stephen Mayne of People Power has constructed an optimistic alternative scenario in which their candidate Barbara Biggs gets ahead of Family First with independent and Democrats preferences, but it would seem more likely that the latter bloc will be outweighed by the combined DLP and Family First vote, so that Biggs will be eliminated and the Labor surplus will instead go to the Greens. The more likely threat to an outcome of three Labor, one Liberal and one Greens would be an unheralded 10 per cent dive in the Labor vote which failed to transfer to the Greens, in which case the Liberals might win a second seat at the expense of the Greens. This would have to be rated as very unlikely.

ASSESSMENT: Labor 3; Liberal 1; Greens 1.

Eastern Metropolitan: With Liberal and Labor sure to bag two seats each, the final place looms as a three-way struggle between Liberal, Labor and the Greens. If the combined Liberal and Family First vote is over 50 per cent, the seat will go to Liberals. Given that the Liberals scored 44.3 per cent in this area in 2002, and the Family First 2004 Senate vote here was 2.2 per cent, the Liberals will be looking good if they are picking up a swing in excess of 3 per cent in the eastern suburbs. Otherwise, the key test will be whether the combined vote for the Greens, Democrats and People Power is greater than Labor’s surplus over the 33.3 per cent they will need to win their second seat. However, Antony Green raises the prospect of a wild card outcome, noting that the contest "gets interesting" if a) the Liberal plus Family First vote is below 50 per cent, b) the Labor plus Greens vote is below 50 per cent, and c) the combined People Power plus Democrats vote is higher than the combined Family First and DLP vote. One of the first two scenarios is plausible, but the third looks very unlikely given that the combined Family First and DLP vote in this area was 3.8 per cent at the 2004 federal election. Stephen Mayne’s scenario for a win for People Power candidate Karin Orpen puts the People Power vote at a very optimistic 2.9 per cent.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal 3; Labor 2.

South-Eastern Metropolitan: This is the Greens’ weakest metropolitan region, so it seems very unlikely that they will poll higher than Labor’s surplus over 33.3 per cent, even after the addition of preferences from the Democrats and People Power (and especially in light of the Liberals decision to put them last on preferences, depriving them of any Liberal surplus). On the basis of the 54.2 per cent Labor scored in this area at the 2002 election (as calculated by Antony Green) it seems equally unlikely that Labor could fail to reach the 50 per cent they need for a third seat after they receive the Greens vote as preferences. For the final seat to go to either Liberal or the Greens, Labor would need to suffer a double-digit swing.

ASSESSMENT: Labor 3; Liberal 2.

Southern Metropolitan: Southern Metropolitan is Labor’s weakest metropolitan region – there is little prospect of them winning a third seat, and a slight risk that they won’t win a second. If Labor does win a second seat, the final position looms as a tussle between the Liberals and the Greens. The Liberals polled 44.2 per cent here in 2002 and will receive preferences from Family First, the DLP and an independent candidate, which the 2004 Senate figures suggest will add up to around 3 per cent. If that adds up to more than 50 per cent, the Liberals will win the seat. The Greens vote in this region was 15.4 per cent at the 2002 state election and 12.8 per cent at the 2004 Senate election; the only boosts they will receive beyond their primary vote will be preferences from People Power and the Democrats, along with Labor’s surplus over 33.3 per cent. If that all adds up to more than 16.7 per cent, the Greens will win the seat. The alternative scenario is that Labor’s vote (which was 37.9 per cent in 2002) falls well below 33.3 per cent, giving the Greens a slim chance of overtaking Labor’s second candidate (one Evan Thornley) and winning his seat, for a final result of three Liberal, one Labor and one Greens.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal 2; Labor 2; Greens 1.

Western Metropolitan: The Greens would need a big improvement on their recent performances to win a seat here, following the Liberal decision to put the Greens last on preferences. There would need to be a substantial boost in their vote at the expense of Labor, and little improvement in the Liberal vote. If that does not occur, the Liberals could win a second seat if their vote reached 33.3 per cent after the addition of Family First preferences. Otherwise, Labor would win a fourth seat and be well on their way to maintaining their upper house majority. The Liberal vote in 2002 was 25.6 per cent, while the Family First 2004 Senate vote was 1.5 per cent.

ASSESSMENT: Labor 4; Liberal 1.

Eastern Victoria: The Coalition parties have done Labor a huge favour here by preferencing the Greens last, giving them some hope of winning a third seat. Past experience suggests the Greens vote will be in the 8 per cent ballpark, which can now be added directly to a Labor vote that was 40.6 per cent at the 2002 state election and 30.4 per cent at the 2004 Senate election. If the surplus of this sum over 33.3 per cent is greater than the equivalent figure for the combined Coalition vote (47.2 per cent in 2002, 50.8 per cent for the 2004 Senate), Labor will win the seat. However, the odds are stacked against this outcome and it is more likely that the final seat will go to either the Liberals or Nationals. The determining factor here will be whether the Nationals vote (10.2 per cent on 2002 figures) exceeds the Liberal surplus over 33.3 per cent (3.7 per cent in 2002), after the Nationals receive preferences from Family First, People Power and the DLP and the Liberals receive preferences from the Country Alliance. As such, the most likely outcome would look to be two Labor, two Liberal and one Nationals. Wild card possibilities include the dim prospect of the People Power getting ahead of the Greens with preferences from the DLP, Family First and the Labor surprlus, and then coasting to victory on Greens preferences.

ASSESSMENT: Labor 2; Liberal 2; Nationals 1.

Western Victoria: Labor and the Liberals are each assured of two seats; the final seat could go to Labor, Liberal or the Greens. Labor’s vote here in 2002 was 47.3 per cent; if this falls by less than 5 per cent, they are very likely to win the final seat. The Greens have a narrow window of opportunity: they need for the combined Labor and Greens vote to be near or above 50 per cent, and for their own share of it to be greater than Labor’s surplus over 33.3 per cent. On 2002 figures, Labor and the Greens respectively polled 47.3 per cent (a 14.0 per cent surplus) and 8.3 per cent. Alternatively, the Liberals might reach the 50 per cent needed for a third seat after receiving preferences from the Nationals, Family First and the DLP. The Coalition vote in 2002 was 42.3 per cent, while preferences should boost them a further 3 to 4 per cent. The Nationals vote in this region is too low to give them a serious shot of squeezing out the Liberals. There are a couple of wild card scenarios here, one of which involves the DLP snowballing ahead of the third Liberal with preferences from Family First, the Country Alliance and People Power.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal 3; Labor 2.

Northern Victoria: The Coalition will surely improve upon its combined 49.1 per cent vote in 2002, and are thus assured of three seats. Barring a Nationals collapse, they are all but certain to win one of these three seats. The question is whether Labor can manage a second. They polled 37.4 per cent, and will only receive preferences from the Greens and half those of the Country Alliance. Even so, their vote would need to fall by about 10 per cent if they were to fall short. A possible wild card is celebrity chef and independent candidate Stefano di Pieri. If his vote breaks the 5 per cent barrier, he might get ahead of the Greens and pull off a miracle.

ASSESSMENT: Labor 2; Liberal 2; Nationals 1.

Add that all together and you get a final result of Labor 20, Liberal 16, Nationals two and two for the Greens. Look back later though and you may find I have changed my mind.

UPDATE: Be it noted that my original assessment of Liberal 3, Labor 2 in Southern Metropolitan has been withdrawn.

Channel Nine has given details of the final Roy Morgan poll of the campaign: Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, but trails 39 per cent to the Coalition’s 41 per cent on the primary vote. The Greens are on 12 per cent, which is remarkably consistent with other agencies’ findings, while Family First is on 3.5 per cent. Laurie Oakes tells Nine viewers he "wouldn’t be surprised" if the Greens won two lower house seats, "or even three".

UPDATE: Full details here.

UPDATE II: Speaking on the ABC’s Stateline program, Paul Austin of The Age has just said their poll tomorrow will show the race is “perhaps a bit closer than some people might have thought”.