Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45; Roy Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor

Two more data points to suggest that the early campaign momentum to the Coalition is not being maintained.

Another two new polls have come down the chute overnight, one being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll as reported by The Guardian. Labor is at 49% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, up two on a fortnight ago, and the Coalition at 45%, down one, with the remainder undecided. The primary votes have the Coalition down one to 36%, Labor steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 4%, One Nation steady on 3% and undecided down a point to 6%.

The Guardian’s report also reports that the four most salient elections were deemed to be cost of living, improving public services, job security and climate change, respectively rated as important by 79%, 69%, 60% and 54%, with Labor favoured over the Coalition on each of them, respectively by 40% to 30%, 44% to 26%, 38% to 29% and 40% to 21%. The poll also finds 41% believe Australia is heading in the right direction compared with 43% for the wrong direction, whereas the respective results were 46% and 37% a fortnight ago.

The Guardian reports the sample was 1500, whereas the pollster’s sample sizes have hitherto been between 1000 and 1100. It was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Saturday. Further clarification will be provided when the pollster publishes full results and a methodology statement on its website later today.

The other poll is the weekly Roy Morgan, which finds Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5, arresting a generally downward trend for Labor from a peak of 58-42 in mid-March. Both major parties are at 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down half a point and Labor steady. The Greens are up a point to 13%, One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 3% and the United Australia Party is down half a point to 1%. This would translate to about 54-46 based on 2019 election preference flows.

The regular state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56-44 in New South Wales (out from 55-45, a swing of about 8%), 63.5-36.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 10.5%), 62.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of around 12%) and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 56.5-43.5 in Queensland (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 2%) and 51-49 in Western Australia (in from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%). Sub-sample sizes are such that all of these should be treated with caution, but the pollster’s readings for the two largest states are consistently at odds with the much tighter race expected by both sides. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1487.

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15

The Coalition’s primary vote weakens still further in the latest Resolve Strategic poll, despite a change in questionnaire options that halves the result for independents.

The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38% and the Coalition steady on 36%. One Nation has gained two points to 5% now that it is offered as a response option in every seat where it is fielding candidates, which is to say all but two of them compared with a little more than a third at the 2019 election, while the United Australia Party is steady on 4%. The report is silent on the Greens primary vote, but the full results should be up fairly shortly. (UPDATE: The Greens are steady at 11%). The poll also found 56% believed it was time for a change of government, with 44% favouring the alternative response that the Coalition deserved to be returned.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison up two on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down one to 49%. Morrison leads 45-39 on preferred prime minister, in from 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.

Also out today from the Age/Herald is the second Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which finds the Coalition down two on 33% and Labor steady on 34%. The primary vote numbers are clearly influenced by the closure of nominations, which means response options accurately reflect what respondents will encounter on ballot papers in their own electorates. This results in a slump in the independent result from 9% to 4%, bringing an end to what was clearly a peculiarity on the part of the pollster (the accompanying report helpfully offers a “frequently asked questions” section to deal with this and other issues). This has proved a boon to the minor parties, particularly the Greens, who have surged four points to 15%, with One Nation and the United Australia Party also both increasing from 4% to 5%.

Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result (though the Age/Herald report fills the gaps), but these numbers suggest around 54-46 in favour of Labor using flows from the 2019 election compared with 52-48 last time, albeit that the overall size of the non-major party vote makes such projections more uncertain. The pollster’s state breakdowns show substantially stronger results for Labor last time in New South Wales, with an implied two-party swing since the 2019 election of around 10% compared with around 4% in the last poll, and Victoria, where there is a Labor swing of around 4% this time after a slight swing the other way last time. The Queensland sub-sample suggests a Labor swing of around 4% compared with 6% last time. Labor’s two-party vote (as well as the Greens’ primary vote) is around five points stronger among women, much as it was last time.

Scott Morrison’s overall approval rating is down two points to 41% (which includes a five point drop in his “very good” rating to 10%) and his disapproval is up four to 51%. Anthony Albanese’s undecided rating is down six points, making room for a three-point increase in approval to 37% and a four-point increase in disapproval to 48%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister goes from 38-30 to 39-33. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1408.

Sunday’s best: campaign launches, leaders debates, how-to-votes and more

Including a fair bit of second-hand inside dope on where the parties see their main threats and opportunities.

Anthony Albanese will today conduct Labor’s campaign launch today, a fact that I wouldn’t normally consider worth mentioning, such has been the decline of the ritual’s significance over the last few decades. However, Labor has increased the chances of the event being noticed by holding it in Perth, which will at least give his profile a badly needed boost in that city, where Labor is counting on picking up two or possibly three seats.

Elsewhere:

• The second leaders’ debate of the campaign will be hosted by the Nine Network next Sunday and moderated by Sarah Abo of Nine’s 60 Minutes, with questions posed to the leaders by Chris Uhlmann, David Crowe and Deb Knight, respectively of Nine’s television, print and radio arms.

• Labor’s how-to-vote cards can now be found on the candidate pages on its website. The Greens are second on all Senate tickets except Tasmania, where they are behind the Jacqui Lambie Network, presumably in the hope that the party will deprive a right-wing minor party of a place (or, less likely, third-placed Liberal Eric Abetz) while Labor and the Greens win three seats between them as before. As far as I can tell, Labor has the United Australia Party second last and One Nation last in every lower house seat with the curious exception of Dawson, where the United Australia Party is third behind Katter’s Australian Party and ahead of the Greens, which as far as I can see stands no chance of accomplishing anything other than compromising Labor’s national anti-Palmer message.

• Having spoken with “15 Liberal MPs in and outside the Morrison cabinet who are familiar with the Coalition’s election strategy and internal polling and who have campaigned in these seats”, James Massola and Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald report the party is “increasingly nervous” that it will lose Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth to teal independents. After spending the earlier part of the campaign in marginal seats in both Sydney and Melbourne, Josh Frydenberg will spend the remainder of it defending his own seat of Kooyong.

Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review quotes Peter Beattie saying Labor has “lowered its expectations” in Queensland, and says Labor is “now working to ensure there is no net loss of seats in the state”. Labor nonetheless remains hopeful in Brisbane and Longman. Similarly, the previously noted Age/Herald report relates that “strategists on both sides now believe it’s possible no seats will change hands in Queensland”, and further offers that the Liberals are targeting Labor-held Blair, though perhaps in hope more than expectation.

• Liberal attacks ads portraying Anthony Albanese as a puppet of Dan Andrews reportedly reflect hopes that hostility towards the Andrews government over COVID lockdowns has damaged Labor enough in outer suburbia to put McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley in play. Paul Sakkal in the Sunday Age reports that “internal Liberal Party research in seats stretching from Frankston in the east to Geelong in the west shows Andrews’ net favourability rating is between negative 10 and negative 20”. However, the report relates the view of Redbridge Group pollster Kos Samaras that the Liberals are “barking up the wrong tree because his polling suggests state Labor’s vote is, on average, 7% higher than federal Labor’s in seats with geographical overlap”.

Josh Zimmerman of the Sunday Times reports that “internal polling” credits Labor with a “slight lead” in the key Perth seat of Pearce.

Federal election minus three weeks

More how-to-vote card news, more internal polling rumours, more candidate hassles, more nonsense from One Nation.

This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.

Miscellaneous news:

• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.

Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.

• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.

• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.

• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.

• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.

On the cards

Liberal how-to-vote cards betray few scruples about dealing with the political right, though One Nation have gone against them in at least one place where it might matter.

With the first postal votes being sent out this week, crunch time is arriving for parties to determine their how-to-vote cards, a much overrated yet not entirely insignificant feature of Australian election campaigning. First out of the block are the Liberal Party, whose how-to-votes are featured on the candidate pages of its website. These are in most cases tokenistic, since the preferences of Liberal candidates are usually not distributed, but it’s interesting to note that teal independents have been put last in Warringah, Goldstein and Kooyong, and behind Labor in North Sydney and Curtin (though not Wentworth). More consequentially, though not unpredictably, the party’s how-to-vote cards have Labor ahead of competitive Greens candidates.

The Liberal Senate tickets have the United Australia Party among the six parties recommended for numbering in every state except (wait for it) Western Australia: Palmer’s party is placed second in Victoria and Tasmania, third behind the Liberal Democrats in New South Wales and third behind One Nation in Queensland (the taboo against preferencing that party being very much a thing of the past). Pressed about the matter by The West Australian last month, Scott Morrison said: “I don’t believe there will be a deal and that is certainly not my expectation and it is certainly not my request.” However, he conceded it was a “matter for the party organisation”, and certainly didn’t stake his authority on the matter.

The party’s Queensland ticket offers a useful boost to Pauline Hanson, placing her ahead of Clive Palmer at number three and Campbell Newman at number four. Nonetheless, One Nation is directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party in Longman, which helped swing the result Labor’s way when the party last won the seat in 2016. Conversely, preferences are being directed to Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, contrary to suggestions he would be among a number of Liberal moderates targeted in relation for a sixth placement on the Liberals’ Tasmanian ticket. Those have turned out to be Bridget Archer in Bass, James Stewart in Sturt, Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, with only the former seeming like a seat where the party is likely to attract much support. It is not clear from media reports if the teal independents are ahead of the Liberals in Goldstein and North Sydney.

All the news that’s fit to print

Poll news, electorate news, preference news and more. Twenty-three days to go …

No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:

Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.

Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.

• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.

Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.

• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.

Local-level brush fires and controversies:

Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.

• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.

• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.

Preferences:

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.

• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.

Campaign meat and potatoes:

• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.

• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.

Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.

• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.

State affairs:

• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.

• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.

Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns

The weekly Roy Morgan poll continues its slow narrowing, while Ipsos breakdowns point to significant Labor swings in the three largest states.

The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.

The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.

As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).

Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

The latest Ipsos poll finds the Coalition yielding no measurable benefit from the first fortnight of the campaign, while Newspoll is effectively unchanged from a week agoi.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged from 53-47 a week ago, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady) and One Nation 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 38% and down one to 50%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 44-37 to 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.

Also out this evening is the second Ipsos poll for the Financial Review finds no improvement in the Coalition’s position since its post-budget poll, continuing to credit Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45 based on 2019 preference flows after exclusion of the 8% undecided (otherwise Labor 50 and Coalition 42). Ipsos provides a further two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences that includes those undecided on either primary vote and preference choice as a separate component: this has Labor steady on 48%, the Coalition up one to 38% and undecided down one to 14%. After excluding 9% unaccounted for (7% undecided plus 2% not enrolled – the latter is no longer featured, perhaps reflecting the close of the rolls) in the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 0.7% to 34.8%, Labor down 1.5% to 37.0%, the Greens up 2.1% to 13.0%, One Nation steady at 4.3% and the United Australia Party up 1.1% to 3.3%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, his approval up one to 34% and disapproval steady at 48%. Anthony Albanese suffers little damage from his early campaign mishaps, with approval up one to 31% and disapproval up three to 35%. He maintains a lead as preferred prime minister of 40-38, out from 38-37. The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial, with the Coalition’s primary vote six points lower among women than men, Labor’s two points lower and the Greens’ five point higher, respectively compared with three points, seven points and four points last time. Scott Morrison’s net approval rating is minus six among men, down from minus eight, and minus 19 among women, down from minus 22. Anthony Albanese also does worse among women (minus six net approval) than men (minus one). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a large sample of 2302.