EMRS: Liberal 49, Labor 22, Greens 19 in Tasmania

With the clock running down ahead of an election due in March, new poll results find no respite for the Lara Giddings-led Labor government in Tasmania.

The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, conducted last week from a sample of 854 respondents, records Labor at just 22%, down six points from an already disastrous showing last time, although the pollsters’ charts suggest this to be part of a two-year pattern in which the Labor vote bounces up and down within the twenties. The Liberal vote is also down three points to a still commanding 49%, the drop making room for the rise of the Palmer United Party from 1% to 5%. The Greens are also up four points to 19%, their strongest showing since August last year. Kevin Bonham calculates this as an absolute majority for the Liberals with 13 or 14 seats out of 25, up from their present 10.

Below is a poll tracking chart derived from the full gamut of published polling from the current term, encompassing 14 EMRS and four ReachTEL polls. I’ve recalibrated the bias adjustments that probably marked the Greens down too hard last time (a tendency to inflate the Greens vote being a clear feature of EMRS polling in particular), which was based on federal election results that were complicated by the Andrew Wilkie factor in Denison. On top of the bias adjustment, the polling suggests that the Greens are pulling out of a lull that kicked in at the start of the year, with little change to major party support since the start of 2012.

The Burnie Advocate also reports that a ReachTEL poll of 657 respondents commissioned, for some reason, by the Nationals puts support for the Liberals across the northern and central Tasmanian electorates of Lyons, Bass and Braddon at 52% compared with 26% for Labor and 13% for the Greens, adding to the impression that the Liberals are very well placed to win third seats in each electorate, which would very likely secure them a parliamentary majority.

Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

True to form, Essential Research offers a more subdued reflection than its rivals of the apparent decline in the government’s political stock.

Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s direction, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48, although it may have been helped along a little by the use of preference flows from the recent election for the first time. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 36%, the Coalition down one to 44% and the Greens down one to 8%. We are also told the Palmer United Party is on 4%, a figure not usually provided by Essential. The poll also finds 53% opposed to lowering the $1000 GST threshold on imported goods, with 35% supportive; and 70% opposed to lifting the pension age to 70, with only 24% supportive. Other results deal with respondents’ media consumption and internet use.

Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

Final score: 53.49-46.51 to Coalition

Definitive election results from the Australian Electoral Commission bring us the long-awaited national two-party preferred result, and details of minor party preference flows.

The Australian Electoral Commission finally lifted the lid on the completed federal election count yesterday, the detail we’ve all been waiting for being the final national two-party preferred result: 53.49-46.51 to the Coalition. That makes it the Coalition’s seventh best result since 1949, after 1966, 1975, 1977, 1955, 1958 and 1996, and better than any achieved since 1943 by Labor, whose modern high-water mark was Bob Hawke’s 53.23-46.77 victory in 1983. Labor nonetheless managed slender wins in the two-party vote race in Victoria (50.2%) and Tasmania (51.2%), with Western Australia remaining its worst state (41.72%).

No less interesting is the data on minor parties’ preference splits between Labor and the Coalition, confirming a significant increase in the share of preferences received by Labor compared with 2010. Labor’s share of Greens preferences was 83.03%, which compares with 80.78% in 2004, 79.69% in 2007 and 78.84% in 2010. My best guess here is that the Greens tended to lose votes from those driven by anti-major party sentiment, perhaps because of the closeness of their association with the government, leaving behind a more ideological voter base with a particular hostility to Tony Abbott.

Labor received 46.33% of Palmer United Party preferences, nearly identical to the overall “others” result of 46.69%. The latter was also the best for Labor since such figures were first published in 2004, recovering from a low of 41.74% in 2010. One consequence of this was that pollsters’ preference models based on 2010 election results overstated the Coalition on two-party preferred. Had preferences been as they were in 2010, the Coalition would have scored an extra 1% and a few more seats.

BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition

Powered mostly by Nielsen, but with other stronger polling for Labor also in the mix, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate records its first significant shift since the election.

Supplemented with a bumper crop of new results, from Newspoll, Nielsen, ReachTEL and Essential Research, plus a brace of new state-level data, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate records its first big move since the election. As shown on the sidebar, Labor is up nearly 2% on two-party preferred in just one week, driven by a significant increase in the their primary vote. The Nielsen poll of course has been a major contributor, but the 50.8-49.2 two-party split lands right on the ReachTEL result and isn’t far different from Newspoll once accounting for its preference distribution method that was probably slightly unflattering to Labor. On the seat projection, Labor gains five seats in Queensland on last week together with three in New South Wales, one in Victoria, two in Western Australia and one in the territories, which can only mean Solomon. The odd man out is South Australia, where Labor’s state-level data for this week was notably soft, although only small sample sizes were involved. Here Labor has actually gone from a projected gain of a seat to a projected loss.

Elsewhere around the site, there’s updates on Queensland’s two looming by-elections, at federal level in Griffith and state level in Redcliffe, and posts on new state polling in Victoria and Queensland. Further to which, two electoral reform news nuggets:

• A package of electoral reforms before the Queensland parliament may offer a litmus test for the federal government’s future plans, particularly after its position in the Senate strengthens in the middle of next year. Most pointedly, the bill contains a provision to require voter identification at the polling booth, having been foreshadowed by Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane’s post-election complaint that “you can’t go and hire a video without a card that requires a photo ID, but you can turn up to present to vote and just assert who you are”. This is perhaps the first entry into Australian politics of what has emerged as a flashpoint issue in the United States, where Republicans have invoked the ease with which malefactors can impersonate others in the absence of identity requirements, and Democrats have responded with complaints of “voter suppression laws” designed to create obstacles for the poor and minority groups in the name of a problem which appears barely to exist in practice.

Despite the Queensland government’s penchant for radicalism, the measures proposed in its bill come with a very substantial safety net, in that voters who find themselves unable to provide identification can lodge a signed declaration vote. The vote is later admitted to the count if election officials deem the vote to be bona fide, which they can presumably do by checking the signature against the voter’s enrolment form. The measure nonetheless promises to make life a lot more complicated on polling day, and to impose a further burden on the Electoral Commission as it conducts an already torturously cumbersome vote counting process. More on this from Peter Brent of Mumble, and a report on community radio current affairs program The Wire which features the redoubtable Graeme Orr.

Other measures in the Queensland bill include the abolition of caps on donations and campaign spending which the previous government introduced before the last election, setting the Newman government on a different course from the O’Farrell government which further tightened donation rules and spending caps in 2011. The bill likewise abolishes the increase in public funding which was introduced to compensate political parties for donation caps, and reinstates the old dollars-per-vote public funding model while setting the minimum vote threshold at 10% rather than the more familiar 4%. The threshold for disclosure of political donations, which Coalition governments would prefer be at least ten times the level favoured by Labor, will revert to the CPI-indexed $12,400 established at federal level by the Howard government, after the Bligh government slashed it to $1000. The bill has been referred to the parliament’s legal affairs and community safety committee, which is scheduled to report by February 24.

• As to what the new federal government might have planned, that should become clearer with the looming establishment of the new Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters and the commencement of its inquiry into the conduct of the recent election. The committee will consist of five government members including the chair, four opposition members including the deputy chair, and one from the Greens. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports the chair and deputy are likely to be Alex Hawke and Alan Griffin, while Lee Rhiannon will take the Greens’ position.

Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria

Two poll results today from Victoria, both giving the Labor opposition election-winning leads.

The Age carries a Nielsen poll of state voting intention in Victoria, a once-familiar sight we don’t see much of these days, which has Labor with a commanding 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Nonetheless, Denis Napthine records a solid 47-37 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier. There are also results on the government’s handling of various policy areas which you can see if you follow the link. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1000 respondents.

Also out today was an Essential Research poll of state voting intention from three states including Victoria, derived from Essential’s last month of regular polling. In Victoria’s case there was a sample of 930 and a Labor lead of 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 13% for the Greens.

And here are some poll tracking charts covering the current term:

ReachTEL: Labor leads Campbell Newman 52-48 in Ashgrove

Contentious anti-bikie laws don’t seem to be doing Campbell Newman any favours in the inner urban seat he poached from Labor in 2012.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 787 respondents commissioned by Seven in Brisbane shows Labor with a 52-48 lead over the Liberal National Party in Campbell Newman’s seat of Ashgrove. The primary votes are 41.4% for the LNP, 38.9% for Labor and 14.6% for the Greens, with little left to minor players. A poll like this presents the problem of whether the candidate should be identified in the voting intention question, which this poll has resolved by sticking to the party. Further questions seem to suggest that including candidate names would not have done Newman any favours, with 53.0% of voters rating his performance “as the local member for Ashgrove” as poor or very poor. That is exactly equal to the “favourable” rating for former Labor member Kate Jones, with 48.5% saying they would be more likely to vote Labor if she ran again versus only 20.9% for less likely. Further findings interestingly show up strong opposition to the government’s populist bikies laws, which 48.1% say make them less likely to vote LNP versus 31.8% more likely. Negative reaction is also found to the sacking of the of the parliamentary crime and misconduct committee and, to a lesser extent, public service cuts.

Also in the mail today were three sets of state polling results from Essential Research‘s last month of polling, including a finding that the Liberal National Party led 57-43 in Queensland (compared with 62.8-37.2 at the election), with primary votes of 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another poll with 52-48 two-party preferred – but this time in the opposite direction.

The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.

Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.

UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:

• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).

• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).

• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).