Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt

The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).

Stuff in the papers

With just under half the campaign to go:

• George Megalogenis in The Australian accuses Labor of spending the first two weeks of the campaign pursuing “an imaginary centre position between young and old”, instead alienating the former by being too conservative. Megalogenis explains Labor’s poll decline among older voters in terms of the global financial crisis having “ended the party for baby boomers just when they thought they had made it to a prosperous retirement”, and says the fear of falling property prices in Queensland (not shared in Sydney and Melbourne) has united young and old voters in that state against Labor.

Milanda Rout of The Australian reports the Coalition is pessimistic about Labor’s two Victorian marginals, Deakin and Corangamite, and fears defeat not only in La Trobe and McEwen, but even in seemingly unassailable Aston (where sitting member Chris Pearce is retiring).

Sean Parnell of The Australian offers the interesting tidbit that the Queensland Liberal National Party “allowed the federal Liberal Party to fundraise almost exclusively in the state – including through the mining debate – to fill its depleted coffers and avoid Queensland’s tougher disclosure laws”. The Bligh government reduced the threshold for disclosing donations from $1500 to $1000 in June 2008. This was presumably in anticipation of the Rudd government’s proposal to cut the threshold from $10,000 (to which the Howard government had hiked it from $1500 in 2005) to $1000, which is yet to come to fruition.

• The Adelaide Advertiser has launched a crusade against Barnaby Joyce over his rejection of Penny Wong’s call for a live debate over the River Murray in Adelaide, which Joyce dismissed as “parochial”. Joyce protests there will be “nothing much to talk about” in the absence of the water allocation plan, which the Murray Darling Basin Authority has contentiously delayed releasing until after the election.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reckons “ALP insiders have not seen any immediate improvement in their stocks from the PM’s pledge to unleash the ‘real Julia’.”

• Possum runs Newspoll and Nielsen state breakdowns through his fantabulous contraption and finds Labor 79.4 per cent likely to win at least 74 seats, 71.4 per cent likely to win at least 75 and 62.2 per cent likely to win at least 76 (i.e. an absolute majority).

• Antony Green’s Senate calculators are open for business.

Morgan phone poll: 50-50

Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.

Newspoll breakdowns and related matters

The Australian offers geographic and demographic breakdowns of the last two Newspoll surveys, achieving reasonable samples from each subset due to the unusually large samples (around 1700) Newspoll uses during the election period. Age breakdowns offer the interesting finding that Labor has bounced back under Gillard in the 35-49 bracket, but if anything gone backwards among the young and old – or rather, remained stable on the primary vote while the Coalition has picked up a few points. The gender gap is four points on voting intention, seven on Gillard’s approval rating and ten on preferred prime minister, and appears to have widened steadily through the year on Tony Abbott’s approval.

The state breakdowns give us a useful opportunity to confirm their findings with Nielsen, the Fairfax papers having conducted a similar exercise from the three most recent polls (extending it to four for South Australia and Western Australia to boost the sample). I also offer a third measure of what the betting markets think, which involves a rough estimate of the statewide swings suggested by the odds SportingBet and SportsBet are offering on individual seats (more on this subject from occasional Poll Bludger commenter Dr Good). The table shows Labor’s two-party preferred vote:

2007 Newspoll Nielsen Bookies
NSW 53.7% 49% 51% 53%
Vic 54.3% 59% 54% 54%
Qld 50.4% 46% 47% 47%
WA 46.7% 46% 46% 46%
SA 52.4% 56% 51% 53%

Some further (alleged) intelligence courtesy of internal polling:

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal polling in NSW has them doing “well” in “about five Labor-held marginal seats”, which include Macquarie and Robertson and to a lesser extent Dobell. The other two presumably include Gilmore, with a fifth harder to identify: the pendulum suggests Bennelong, Eden-Monaro and Page, where in each case the markets favour Labor. However, they Liberals were also said to be in trouble in Hughes and Macarthur. In Queensland, Leichardt and Dawson are said to be at risk, but Labor looks set to hold Longman and Flynn.

• The West Australian reports Nationals polling has Wilson Tuckey leading them in O’Connor by just 51-49, from primary votes of 38 per cent for Tuckey, 23 per cent for Nationals candidate Tony Crook, 21 per cent for Labor and 8 per cent for the Greens, with 10 per cent undecided.

• Markus Mannheim of the Canberra Times reports Liberal polling in the ACT shows the Greens vote actually falling since the 2007 election, which if accurate would put their dream of a Senate seat well beyond reach, if the Democrats’ decision to direct preferences to the Liberals hadn’t done it already.

We’ve had conflicting reports in recent days on party finances and campaign spending:

Richard Gluyas of The Australian today reports the Liberals are struggling to raise funds. A media-buying source is quoted saying Labor ad spending has been especially conspicuous in the past week, with $19 million in advertising commitments for the length of the campaign splitting “55:45 in favour of Labor”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald, by contrast, reports Liberal television advertising has been 51 per cent more active than Labor’s, “as measured by audience exposure”:

Labor officials wondered aloud where a cash-strapped Liberal Party had managed to find the money, an answer which will not be disclosed officially for a year and a half. And the Liberals were struck by the fact that Labor had all but withdrawn from the advertising market in the second week of the campaign. After an active first week, Labor advertising airtime fell to zero in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, and near zero in Sydney, in week two. Labor continued normal campaign-level advertising only in Brisbane, presumably reflecting the high concentration of at-risk seats in Queensland. In a week in which Labor was taking a hiding in the news media and in the polls, the party decided to stop trying to reach voters with paid advertising as it husbanded its resources. “Labor have obviously come off for a reason,” Mr Durrant said. “I can’t see that it would be because they have run out of money but more likely it is a strategic decision to perhaps blitz the market in the final stretches when people are closer to making a decision, which could be quite smart given how much coverage and PR is being generated by them both.”

I can only say that the the Liberal Party doesn’t seem starved for funds in Western Australia. As well as running highly visible campaigns even in Labor’s safest seats, there is talk the state branch has found $1 million to spare for the national campaign.

So much for what they’re doing with their own money – here’s some of what they have planned for ours.

Petrie (Labor 2.3%): Last week Labor promised to spend $742 million building a fabled rail line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring. The Liberals responded by bringing forward their own planned announcement that $750 million would be put into the project. This evidently came as news to LNP Petrie candidate Dean Teasdale, whose initial reaction to Labor’s announcement was that this was not the time for such an expensive project. Tony Koch of The Australian notes the rail link has been the subject of fruitless election promises for 40 years, and it was first proposed as far back as the 1890s. The state government dropped plans to build the link six years ago after a study suggested it would be unviable, but last year was reported to be pushing to get the project “shovel ready” so it could be considered for federal funds. It emerged as an issue in the state election last March when Shadow Transport Minister Fiona Simpson flew solo with a promise it would be built by 2016, causing great embarrassment to her party.

Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%), Dawson (Labor 2.4%), Flynn (Labor 2.3%), Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%) and Hinkler (Nationals 1.5%): Queensland’s regional coastal seats were clearly the target of Tony Abbott’s announcement last week that they would limit the future expansion of marine parks, by requiring “peer-reviewed scientific evidence of a threat to marine diversity”. The announcement was made at Mackay in Dawson. Mackay has also been the scene of a bidding war over the construction of a new ring road: Wayne Swan promised $10 million for a feasibility study into a new ring road one week into the campaign, and Tony Abbott trumped him two days later by promising $30 million for design and engineering work.

Hasluck (Labor 1.0%) and Swan (notional Labor 0.3%): Labor last week promised to provide $480 million of $600 million sought by the Western Australian government to improve roads around Perth Airport, which will include widening Tonkin Highway to a six-lane freeway. There was also an as yet uncosted promise to provide funding to an upgrade of 4 kilometres of Great Eastern Highway.

Bass (Labor 1.0%): Last week Labor promised $11.5 million in finding for Launceston’s flood levees as part of the Natural Disaster Resilience Program.

Sturt (Liberal 0.9%) and Makin (Labor 7.7%): The Prime Minister last week announced $100 million in funding for stormwater harvesting and reuse, the first cab off the rank being a $10 million contribution to a pitch for $33 million by councils in eastern Adelaide. With the councils to fund half the cost, this left a $6 million hole which Labor wanted filled by a previously reluctant state government. The next day Tony Abbott trumped Labor by promising to put up the full $16.5 million. The Coalition has also promised $7.5 million to improve Fosters and Gorge roads in Sturt.

Gilmore (notional Labor 0.2%): Late last week Tony Abbott promised $20 million to upgrade a notorious section of the Princes Highway between Ulladulla and Batemans Bay.

Legal action:

• The GetUp!-sponsored legal challenge against the law requiring the electoral roll to close on the day the writs are issued will be heard in the High Court tomorrow. According to the Australin Financial Review, GetUp! will be supported by most of the legal team that acted for Vickie Roach in the 2007 action that overturned a Howard government law prohibiting prisoners from voting.

• A “Tasmanian antique dealer” has launched a legal challenge against Eric Abetz’s right to sit in parliament, arguing he remains a citizen of Germany, from which he emigrated in 1961 at the age of three. Constitutional expert and Labor preselection aspirant George Williams tells The Hobart Mercury there are “numerous pitfalls for any politician born overseas, or whose parents or even grandparents had been born overseas, to fall into, unawares and without intent, which could make them ineligible to sit in Parliament”.

Finally, there has as always been some interesting wash-up from the unveiling of Senate group voting tickets on Sunday, which I have summarised for an article in Crikey. Note the launch of the new awareness-raising website Below the Line, on which voters are encouraged to order and then print out their own Senate “how to vote” card.

Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.

We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:

Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.

On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.

Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.

However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.

Harvest time

The group voting tickets for the Senate, which determine how preferences will be allocated for the overwhelming majority of voters who vote above-the-line, can now be viewed on the Australian Electoral Commission site. Below I have condensed most of the tickets to their essentials, reducing it to ordering of parties that can conceivably win and major party candidates whose election is in doubt (i.e. the third ones on the list). If you’re planning on voting above-the-line for a minor party other than the Greens, this should help you determined where your vote will end up.

First, some points of immediately obvious significance should be noted. The Greens are fuming that the Democrats have put them behind Labor in South Australia, and especially behind the Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory, contrary to what they believed was a deal – or at least a very strong understanding – that preferences would be exchanged across the country. Certainly the Greens have come good on their half of such a deal, outside of putting them behind Cheryl Kernot in New South Wales. This seriously damages their chances of unseating Liberal Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT.

Secondly, Antony Green’s first impression is that the best chance of a minor party boilover on the back of preference harvesting lies with the Climate Sceptics and Family First in South Australia. Thirdly, while I haven’t crunched the numbers yet, it looks superficially to me like the same could be said of the Christian Democratic Party in Western Australia – whose preference-harvesting abilities are spoken of in hushed terms by informed observers, despite their consistent failure to get over the line. Finally, also in Western Australia, it turns out the ballyhooed WA First party were not able to register in time for the election, and will appear as a generic group on the ballot paper.

NEW SOUTH WALES

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Communist: Greens; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Coalition.

Citizens Electoral Council: Liberal Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Cheryl Kernot; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

Democrats: Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Greens; half-Labor/half-Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; half-Labor/half-Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Climate Sceptics: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; Australian Sex Party; Coalition; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Labor Greens.

Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; Family First; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Greens.

Democratic Labor Party: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democraticc Party; Shooters and Fishers; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Greens; Cheryl Kernot; Labor; Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party.

David Barker: Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Shooters and Fishers; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Non-Custodial Parents Party: Liberal Democrats; half Family First, half Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Fishers and Shooters; Democratic Labor Party; Coalition; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

Family First: Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Shooters and Fishers; Family First; Cheryl Kernot; Coalition; One Nation.

Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Coalition; Greens; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party.

Christian Democrats: Coalition; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Labor; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Coalition: Christian Democratic Party; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Greens; Australian Sex Party; One Nation.

One Nation: Democratic Labor Party; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; Family First; Coalition; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Labor; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

Greens: Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor: Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Cheryl Kernot: half Greens, half Democrats; Australian Sex Party; half Labor, half Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Liberal Democrats: Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Australian Sex Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Cheryl Kernot; Christian Democratic Party; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

VICTORIA

Joseph Toscano: Greens; Stephen Mayne; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; One Nation.

Family First: Christian Democratic Party; Democratic Labor Party; Stephen Mayne; One Nation; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Labor; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Family First; One Nation.

Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Stephen Mayne; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.

Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Stephen Mayne; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Shooters and Fishers: Coalition; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Labor; One Nation; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Stephen Mayne; Labor; Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party; Family First.

Climate Sceptics: Family First; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Citizens Electoral Council: Family First; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Stephen Mayne, Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

One Nation: Democratic Labor Party; Stephen Mayne, Family First; Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Australian Sex Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Coalition: Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Christian Democratic Party: Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Coalition; Stephen Mayne; One Nation; Labor; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Coalition; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Carers Alliance: Stephen Mayne; Democrats; half Labor, half Liberal; Greens; half Family First, Australian Sex Party, One Nation; half Australian Sex Party, One Nation, Family First.

Liberal Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Stephen Mayne; Democrats; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens.

Stephen Mayne: half Family First, half Greens; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; half Coalition, half Labor; One Nation.

QUEENSLAND

Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Coalition; Greens; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Australian Sex Party.

Family First: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Coalition; Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Greens.

One Nation: Christian Democrats; Coalition; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Labor; Greens.

Democrats: Greens; Australian Sex Party; half Coalition, half Labor; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.

Australia First: One Nation; Family First; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Climate Sceptics: Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Citizens Electoral Council: Coalition; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Coalition: Family First; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Coalition; Christian Democrats; Family First; Democrats; One Natin; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.

Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Coalition; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Coalition; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation.

Liberal Democrats: One Nation; Democrats; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens;

Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Democrats;
Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Christian Democrats: Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Labor; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; WA First; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Nationals: Family First; WA First; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

Liberal: Christian Democrats; National; WA First; Family First; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Citizens Electoral Council: Family First; WA First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; National; Labor; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; WA First; National; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Nationals; Family First; Christian Democrats; WA First.

Climate Sceptics: WA First; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation; WA First; National; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; WA First; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Family First: Nationals; Christian Democrats; WA First; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

One Nation: Christian Democrats; National; Family First; WA First; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Greens; Labor.

Democrats: WA First; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Nationals; half Labor, half Liberal; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Labor: Greens; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; WA First; Democrats; Family First; Nationals; Liberal; One Nation.

Liberal Democrats: WA First; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens.

Christian Democrats: WA First; Family First; Nationals; Labor; Liberal; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democrats; Nationals; Liberal; Family First; One Nation; Labor; WA First; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Greens.

Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, Liberal, Nationals, half Liberal, Nationals, Labor; Greens; Family First; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; One Nation; WA First.

WA First: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Nationals; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Climate Sceptics: One Nation; Family First; Christian Democratic; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Family First; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; One Nation.

Liberal: Family First; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

One Nation: Family First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Democratic Labor Party Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Christian Democrats: Family First; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.

Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Liberal; half Greens, One Nation, Christian Democrats, half One Nation, Christian Democrats, Greens; Australian Sex Party; Family First.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First.

Shooters and Fishers: Family First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; One Nation; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens; Liberal; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Liberal Democrats: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Family First; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First.

Family First: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

TASMANIA

Democrats: Greens; Labor; Liberal; Family First.

Liberal: Family First; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Family First; Liberal.

Shooters and Fishers: Liberal; Family First; Labor; Democrats;
Greens.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberal; Family First.

Democratic Labor Party: Liberal; Family First; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Family First: Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens.

Climate Sceptics: Family First; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens.

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Liberal.

Democrats: Liberal; Greens; Labor.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberal.

Liberal: Democrats; Greens; Labor.

NORTHERN TERRITORY

Australian Sex Party: Greens; Labor; Country Liberal.

Shooters and Fishers: Country Liberals; Labor; Greens.

Country Liberals: Greens; Labor.

Citizens Electoral Council: Country Liberals; Labor; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Country Liberals.

Greens: Labor; Country Liberals.