The first Newspoll of the new term, courtesy of The Australian, records the Coalition on 41%, compared with 42.1% at the election; Labor on 36%, up from 34.7%; the Greens on 9%, down from 10.2%; and others on 14%. This pans out to a tie on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 50.4-496 in favour of the Coalition. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down six points on the pre-election result to 34% and his disapproval is up three to 50%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 36% and down one to 50%. Turnbull holds a 43-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 48-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1696.
Also note the latest posts below this one: a belated entry on a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention conducted from the Fairfax papers last Thursday; my latest American presidential election poll tracker reading; and ongoing updates from the Northern Territory election count.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average finds both parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon unchanged on 10% and 4%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. Also featured:
• Two fascinating questions on the standard of life in Australia find 45% believing it to be higher now than 50 years ago, but 34% believing the opposite. Forty-seven per cent expect life for the next generation to be worse, against only 24% for better.
• Support for same-sex marriage is recorded at 57%, with opposition at 28%. The poll also finds 81% of yes voters say they would definitely or probably vote, compared with 70% of no voters. Fifty-nine per cent support a national vote and 25% a decision by parliament. Forty-seven per cent said they would expect a referendum to pass, 24% that they expected it to fail, and 30% felt unsure.
• Forty-six per cent agree that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men”, while 40% believe such obstacles “largely gone”. The split is 31-53 among men and 60-27 among women.
• Twenty-one per cent think the government too tough on asylum seekers, down four since November, while 29% deem it soft and 31% about right, both unchanged. Forty-six per cent believe conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island to be poor, compared with 28% for good.