Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.

The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.

Saturday smorgasbord

Details on two privately conducted polls, plus a stew of federal preselection news.

Two privately conducted ReachTEL polls from the past week to relate, followed by enough federal preselection news to choke on. Also note immediately below this the post on a new YouGov Galaxy state poll from Queensland. I should also observe that September 8 has been set as the date for the Wagga Wagga state by-election in New South Wales, to be held after Liberal member Daryl Maguire fell foul of the Independent Commission Against Corruption. It presumably won’t be contested by Labor and will probably be of interest only to locals, but Antony Green naturally has a guide up.

On with the show:

The Guardian reports a poll conducted for the ACTU has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Other findings of the poll relate to wage rises, or the lack thereof: 47.6% reported not having received one in the past year, 32.9% said such as they had received did not cover the cost of living, and only 19.5% said their pay had improved in real terms. The poll was conducted on August 2 from a sample of 2453.

• Greenpeace has a Victoria only poll which, after exclusion of the 6.7% undecided, has the Coalition on 35.4% (compared with 41.8% at the 2016 election), Labor on 34.9% (35.6%), the Greens on an unlikely 18.6% (13.1%) and One Nation on 5.1%. Labor leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election. The poll was conducted July 30 from a sample of 1118.

The preselection news bonanza starts in Victoria, where internal party democracy has been having a rough time of it lately, with Labor’s national executive and the Liberal Party’s state administrative committee both taking over federal preselections to protect sitting members amid factional unrest.

Continue reading “Saturday smorgasbord”

BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

The Monday after Super Saturday

An all-new forum for discussion of Super Saturday and its aftermath.

For those wanting a more psephologically focused forum for discussion of the by-elections than the main thread, which is the Newspoll post directly below this one, I offer the following.

As well as that, some scattered notes and observations:

• Hear Ben Raue and I trade thoughts on the results in a podcast at The Tally Room.

• For those of you still following the count, Braddon and Longman (and presumably others) yesterday saw counting of postals and special hospital booth votes, together with rechecking. In Braddon, 3967 postals and 1224 followed the overall pattern in not swinging at all, leaving the Labor lead at 52.5-47.5 from a favourable swing of 0.3%, which is unlikely to change much from here. In Longman, 7775 postals and 943 special hospital votes swung somewhat more heavily to Labor (4.9% and 7.1%) than the election day result (3.4%). Since the LNP nonetheless won the postals 52.3-47.7, the raw lead has come down from 5.4% to 4.5%, but I’m now projecting a final margin of 4.3% rather than 3.4%.

• It’s not news anymore, but I thought it worth noting that the Daily Telegraph had a report on insiders’ expectations for Braddon and Longman on July 21 that proved unusually prescient, but which escaped my notice at the time – other such commentary having generally been unduly bullish from the conservatives’ perspective. According to the report, “a senior Liberal strategist said the polling was much tighter in Braddon and that while the LNP was still competitive in Longman, Labor would have to be considered in the box seat”. Also quoted as a “senior Labor source” who said Labor had “made considerable ground in the past couple of weeks”, and that the party was now feeling “pretty confident”.

• If by-election booth results in a spreadsheet-style format are of any use to you, I am maintaining them online for my own purposes for Longman and Braddon.