Category: Western Australian Election 2005

The Poll Bludger is no statistician, but he’s slowly reaching the For Dummies level on capacity on Microsoft Excel and has managed to extract some figures demonstrating the relationship between the decline of One Nation and the rise of the Coalition at the federal and Queensland state elections. At the federal poll, there were 18 Queensland seats that One Nation contested in both 2001 and 2004. Removing Dawson and Rankin due to the corrupting effects of large fluctuations in support for independents and other minor parties, the Pearson R measure (which produces a figure between -1 and 1) of correlation between the primary vote swings for One Nation and the Coalition is a highly significant -0.51, while the figure for Labor of 0.09 is significant only in that it is positive, suggesting there is no reason to expect an improvement in Labor’s vote where One Nation collapses.

Both results are supported when similar exercises are conducted for Western Australian federal seats (-0.31 for the Coalition, 0.11 for Labor) and seats at the Queensland state election (-0.45 for the Coalition, 0.03 for Labor). In case of the latter election, generally reckoned to have been a disaster for the Coalition, there were 10 seats where the Coalition vote was up and the One Nation vote down by at least 10 per cent, out of a mere 19 seats in which the two election results could easily be compared. What this means in rough terms is that if you cut two-thirds out of the One Nation vote in every seat in Western Australia and hand two-thirds of it back to the Coalition (from whence it no doubt came), you will if anything be erring on the side of conservatism. This is particularly significant outside Perth, where hostility has been roused by the government’s ardent pursuit of one-vote one-value reforms. Assuming the One Nation vote behaves as expected, the following marginal Labor seats outside Perth are gone for all money:

Bunbury (0.2 per cent): Ominously for Labor, Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported of this classic bellwether electorate that "both sides are pretty well ready to call (it) for the Liberals". It’s not hard to see why. The redistribution cut the margin by 1.3 per cent, and Antony Green estimates 10.3 per cent of the redrawn electorate voted for One Nation in 2001. If they behave in anything like a predictable fashion, the Liberals will easily recover the seat.

Murray (0.7 per cent): Murray mostly consists of the abolished Liberal electorate of Murray-Wellington, being made notionally Labor with the addition of urban territory in and around Mandurah. The estimated One Nation vote for the new electorate is 19.5 per cent, a figure that dwarfs Labor’s margin.

Collie-Wellington (2.6 per cent): This electorate consists in roughly equal measure of voters from abolished Collie, a traditionally Labor seat held by the National Party from 1993 to 2001, and Murray-Wellington, a seat long held by retiring Liberal member John Bradshaw. Labor would be hoping the loss of Bradshaw’s incumbency factor over much of the electorate might help them remain competitive, but would be nervously contemplating the likely destination of the 15.9 per cent One Nation vote.

Geraldton (2.7 per cent): Labor won Geraldton in 2001 with a mere 26.8 per cent of the primary vote, the secret of their success being the 21.7 per cent recorded by One Nation. The Liberals were badly damaged in the final week of the election campaign when it emerged that member Bob Bloffwitch had failed to declare a pecuniary interest in a local company for which he had been lobbying for public funding. Applying the usual broad strokes, and assuming no unusually prominent independent emerges, the Coalition can expect to be boosted well over 40 per cent with little or no improvement for Labor.

Albany (3.7 per cent): Labor won this seat at the 2001 election for the first time since 1971 with a 15.6 per cent two-party swing. This result seems particularly aberrant, having been heavily influenced by the mortgage broking scandal due to a high retiree population and a local member who had been embroiled in the affair. Here also, Labor will struggle to improve substantially on its 31.6 per cent from 2001 while reversion to old habits can be relied upon to push the Coalition vote back over 40 per cent.

These five seats alone are one more than Labor can afford to lose. Nor are they the only non-metropolitan seats which might be identified as endangered. Although the following have safe-looking margins, it needs to be remembered that non-metropolitan seats in Western Australia have little more than 10,000 voters and are accordingly more prone to volatility than city seats:

North West Coastal (5.4 per cent): Some of the government’s actions in recent times suggest either a blasé attitude to this seat, or a belief that it might be sacrificed to shore up votes elsewhere. Specifically, in an electorate where recreational fishing is a way of life, the government has courted the Greens with local marine park sanctuary zones and talk of having the entire area placed on the World Heritage register.

Murchison-Eyre (7.7 per cent): The popularity and high profile of local member John Bowler might save the day for Labor here, especially given some unhelpful confusion in the Liberal camp in December over whether their candidate Colin Brand had withdrawn or not (it eventually became clear that he hadn’t).

Kimberley (8.5 per cent): Carol Martin won considerable kudos for becoming the first aboriginal woman ever elected to an Australian parliament in 2001. But she was boosted at that election by local issues which have since lost currency, and has suffered a redistribution that might be worse than it looks, having cost her the largely aboriginal area of Fitzroy Crossing.

Western Australian Premier Geoff Gallop today visited Governor John Sanderson to advise an election for February 26. Good for him.

Yesterday, readers of this site were told that the announcement of a Western Australian election for February 19 was "all but certain to follow no later than Friday" since this was "the only logical course for (the government) to follow". Some might argue that Geoff Gallop made a fool of the Poll Bludger when he declared later that same day that this would not occur, but the riposte to this is obvious – Gallop has in fact made a fool of himself. During the course of its term the government has tried in vain to have the third Saturday in February set as the permanent election date under a proposed system of fixed four-year terms. It has nothing to gain from failing to put its money where its mouth is by calling the election for that date, which will also be the first Saturday after the four-year anniversary of the 2001 election. The only possible motive for the decision is political self-interest, and the obviousness of this fact is such that it can only prove self-defeating.

One observer who had not discounted the possibility of a delayed election was Joe Poprzeczny of Western Australian Business News (subscriber only), who last week ran a table outlining the various likely and unlikely dates. February 19 was indeed rated as the "most logical" date. After the "possible" February 26 came an "unlikely" March 5, owing to a public holiday. March 12 was "possible"; then came three Saturdays that weren’t, on account of Easter, and another three that were "unlikely", due to school holidays. Then came April 30, which was late enough to be dubious on constitutional grounds.

Yet another shocking opinion poll for Geoff Gallop’s Labor government, this time from Roy Morgan, which can always be relied upon to paint a rosier picture for Labor than its rivals. Today’s results show a 3.5 per cent shift to the Coalition since the poll taken two months ago, reducing Labor to 49.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. On the primary vote, Labor are down 3 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Coalition are up 2 per cent to 43.5 per cent. Family First have been given a separate entry for the first time, although their 1 per cent support may not justify it. The trend from all three polling organisations is hard to miss:

		Westpoll				Morgan				Newspoll
		ALP	LNP	GRN		ALP	LNP	GRN		ALP	LNP	GRN
December		40	51	5		39.5	43.5	8		34	49	7
Oct/Nov		41	50	6		42.5	41.5	9		–	–	–
Aug/Sept		46	47	5		47.5	38	7		38	41	9
Election 10/2/01		37.2	34.4	7.3		37.2	34.4	7.3		37.2	34.4	7.3

Geoff Gallop says, "there won’t be an announcement this week on the election. I don’t think I’ll be going to see the Governor this week, but watch this space and we’ll see when the election comes". Leaving aside the perplexing shift from "won’t be" in sentence one to "don’t think" in sentence two, this appears to rule out February 12 without locking in February 19, although in reality the latter date is all but certain.

With seasonal festivities out of the way, the Poll Bludger will now endeavour to lift his work rate as the Western Australian election looms ever nearer.

• The silly season has taken on an altogether different complexion in the wake of the tsunami catastrophe, but the effect has been to make the new year period an even greater dead zone than usual for substantial domestic political coverage. The Gallop government has thus been afforded no opportunity to shape the agenda as it prepares for the coming election in the face of deteriorating opinion polling. Accordingly, great import is being read into news that Premier Geoff Gallop will make a major policy announcement at the WA Media Club on Friday, described by AAP as a "hastily arranged keynote speech". Monica Videnieks of The West Australian reports that this is being seen as an attempt to regain the initiative ahead of an announcement of an election for either February 12 or February 19. Elections on these dates would respectively need to be called no later than January 14 (this coming Friday) or January 21.

• The contest for the well-heeled riverside electorate of Alfred Cove, won from unpopular Liberal heavy Doug Shave by Janet Woollard of Liberals for Forests in 2001, looms as the election’s most interesting sideshow. To the Poll Bludger’s mind, there has never seemed any reason why Woollard should not be able to match the electoral longevity of the similarly placed member for Churchlands, Elizabeth Constable, who has been untroubled by Liberal challengers since entering parliament at a 1991 by-election. However a number of those in the know appear to think differently. Liberal preselection for the seat was hotly contested and eventually won by Court government Workplace Relations Minister Graham Kierath, who lost his seat of Riverton in 2001. Michael Southwell, noted local journalist and Greens preselection candidate, wrote in November that Woollard "cannot and will not retain her seat" because she has failed to make an impact over the logging debate or the ongoing issues surrounding the finance brokers scandal which were primarily responsible for her winning the seat in the first place. If Woollard really is in trouble, she has been thrown a lifeline by The West Australian, whose page two gossip column Inside Cover has devoted much of its space over the past week to a "civil disobedience" campaign by Applecross traders rebelling against a Melville City Council demand that a poster promoting Woollard be removed from a local shop window. The complaint was initiated by Kierath, while the high-profile mayor of the council in question, Katherine Jackson, is also running as an independent after failing to win Liberal preselection. The demand has led to a rash of Woollard posters appearing locally as shop owners express solidarity in opposition to the demand, which has led to talk of a High Court challenge on constitutional grounds if the council proceeds with a prosecution.

Monica Videnieks of The West Australian has had a fair bit to say recently on the likely timing of the state election, offering this on Monday:

If (Premier Geoff Gallop) chooses a campaign longer than the typical four weeks, Dr Gallop can call the State election as early as tomorrow (didn’t happen – PB). But it is more likely an election for February 12 would see Dr Gallop visiting the Governor, Lt-Gen John Sanderson, after January 11. If the Government opts for a February 19 election, Dr Gallop’s trip to Government House is more likely to take place in the week of January 18. The Premier can opt to delay the election until May 21, although this would run against the Government’s argument for fixed terms and could be seen as a sign it is afraid of a vote.

The article also cites Harry Phillips of Edith Cowan University saying a January 18 poll would give Labor "more time to remind voters of its accomplishments, particularly difficult at the moment with news of the South-East Asian tsunami disaster saturating the media".