Essential Research: 54-46 (late news)

Looks like we’re not getting a Morgan this week, just as Newspoll and Nielsen broke their normal patterns by failing to report on Monday and Tuesday. Results from both can presumably be expected in a few days. We did as always get Essential Research on Monday, which I’ve thus far been too busy/lazy to do anything with. It showed Labor’s two-party lead steady on 54-46, and also included results on the Prime Minister’s handling of relations with other nations (approve-disapprove split narrowing to 50-32 from 67-19 in April 2009), leader/party better to handle foreign relations (41-27 in favour of Rudd/Labor), relative importance of other nations to Australia (surprisingly strong sentiment for New Zealand, second behind the United States and ahead of China), and preferred priorities for the budget and expectations of whether it will be good or bad for the respondent personally (11 per cent good against 34 per cent bad). A Westpoll survey of 402 respondents in Western Australia found 56 per cent of respondents “believe the number of asylum seekers would decline if Australia reinstated the previous Howard government policy of turning back boats”, with 36 per cent believing otherwise. Thirty-five per cent said the adoption of such a policy by Tony Abbott would make them more likely to vote Liberal, “including 23 per cent of current ALP voters”.

Also:

• Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports the Liberals are expected to open the formal nomination process for Wentworth in the coming week, with preselection scheduled for the end of May. According to Crikey, “talk at the highest levels of the Liberal Party is that research consultant and businessman Christopher Joye is being courted to take a run”. Jennifer Bennett of Central News Magazine reports University of NSW pro-chancellor Gabrielle Upton has ruled herself out, apparently being set on the state seat of Vaucluse, and former Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin has professed himself “surprised” to have been mentioned. Brenton Cherry of the Manly Daily reports Warringah councillor Jason Falinksi also won’t be running, having declared his support for Sydney councillor and factional moderate Shayne Mallard. Waverley councillor Yvonne Coburn has expressed interest, after earlier considering Vaucluse and Coogee. According to the Wentworth Courier, a Sydney newspaper has suggested Peter King might take another pop as an independent (though I can’t locate the report), having been banned from the Liberal Party for 10 years after attempting to hold his seat as an independent after Malcolm Turnbull deposed him for preselection in 2004. The paper also tells us that “despite denials (including on Q&A this week), rumours persist that either Mr or Mrs Turnbull might take a shot at Vaucluse”. Waverley mayor Sally Betts is also said to be considering a run.

• The ABC provides an up-to-date lists of contenders for Labor preselection in the two ACT House of Representatives seats, to be determined next Saturday. Still in the hunt in Canberra are Mary Wood, Gai Brodtmann and Brendan Long, along with apparent late starters Mike Kinniburgh and John O’Keefe (a criminal lawyer). It seems David Garner, former staffer to Simon Crean and Joe Ludwig, and Louise Crossman, former CFMEU official, have withdrawn. Still in the race for Fraser are Nick Martin, George Williams, Andrew Leigh, Christina Ryan, Jim Jones, Chris Bourke, Mike Hettinger and Michael Pilbrow (whom Bernard Keane of Crikey reports is being targeted by the Left over alleged anti-abortion views, which he denies holding). Philip Ironfield and Richard Niven seem to have fallen by the wayside. Chris Johnson of The Canberra Times reports factional chieftains have denied the rank-and-file a secret ballot so they can enforce a deal that will deliver Canberra to Mary Wood of the Centre Coalition with support of the Left, and Fraser to Nick Martin of the Left with the support of the Centre Coalition.

• Jonathan Jackson, Hobart accountant and son of former state Attorney-General Judy Jackson, has won Labor preselection to succeed Duncan Kerr in Denison, having secured the decisive support of the Left. Launceston hospital business manager Geoff Lyons has been confirmed as Jodie Campbell’s successor in Bass.

• Liberal nominations for South Australian Senate seats closed last week, for a field to be vacated by incumbents Nick Minchin and Alan Ferguson. Michael Owen of The Australian reports top spot is expected to go to incumbent Mary Jo Fisher, a member of the Right who has cross-factional backing, while second spot will be former Wakefield MP David Fawcett of the Minchin Right and state party president Sean Edwards, who is backed by Christopher Pyne’s moderates.

• The ABC reports Townsville auctioneer Ewen Jones has won Liberal National Party preselection for Herbert, to be vacated at the election by the retirement of Peter Lindsay.

Michael Owen of The Australian reports “young conservative” Sam Duluk and state Enfield candidate Luke Westley are the front-runners for Liberal preselection in Adelaide, where the Liberals fancy their chances after picking up a 15.4 per cent in the state seat at last month’s election.

• The Lithgow Mercury reports John Cobb, Nationals member for Calare, has survived a preselection challenge from Orange City councillor Sam Romano by 195 votes to 37.

• The Western Weekender reports Australian College of Physical Education business development manager Stuart Ayres has defeated Penrith councillor Ben Goldfinch for Liberal preselection in Penrith, while Penrith councillor Tanya Davies has defeated journalist Bernard Bratusa in Mulgoa.

• The ABC reports the Liberals have preselected Shoalhaven deputy mayor Gareth Ward as candidate for the Illawarra state seat of Kiama, defeating Ann Sudmalis and Donald Mason.

• Former Perth lord mayor Chas Hopkins has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Cowan, one of two Perth seats the Liberals gained against the trend of the 2007 election. A factional arrangement that would have delivered the seat to Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly fell through in January after a Corruption and Crime Commission report mentioned him unfavourably in connection to Brian Burke.

• The ABC reports the Victorian Nationals have preselected former journalist Tim Bull to run against independent incumbent Craig Ingram in the state seat of Gippsland East, ahead of Russell Smith.

Possum has written a fascinating post on class voting, an age-old fascination of scholars of electoral behaviour, in relation to the 2007 federal election. He finds that working in a manual occupation, which as recently as 1990 was found to have produced a 50-38 split between Labor and the Coalition, is now next to useless as a predictor of voting. However, the number of those identifying as “managers” accounts for 55 per cent of the variation in the Labor vote and 37 per cent of the Coalition vote. For the Greens, employment in arts and recreation services, information, media and telecommunications and education accounts for 51 per cent of the variation, regardless of the local availability of a good café latte.

Newspoll: 52-48

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 and back to where it was a fortnight before, although both parties are up a point on the primary vote – Labor to 40 per cent and the Coalition to 41 per cent. Dennis Shanahan reports this is because “a slump in support for the Greens detracted from Labor’s second preferences”. More later.

UPDATE: Full results here, including nifty Flash display of results. Greens down three to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott is up three points on preferred prime minister to 30 per cent – the first time in the Rudd era it’s had a three in front of it, as noted in comments – while Rudd is steady on 55 per cent. Abbott’s also up four points on approval to 48 per cent, though disapproval is also up one to 38 per cent. Rudd has recovered a point from last fortnight’s approval low of 50 per cent, with disapproval steady on 40 per cent.

Today’s Essential Research has Labor’s lead at a new low of 53-47, down from 54-46 last week and 55-45 a week before. A question gauging Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott’s attributes records little change since December, while other questions find hostility towards population growth and support for means testing the private health insurance rebate.

Have I got news for you. From New South Wales:

Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports Labor’s national executive is expected to abandon plans to impose its preferred candidate to succeed Bob Debus in Macquarie, instead allowing the matter to be decided by a rank-and-file ballot. This is a win for the Anthony Albanese Left over the Mark Arbib Right, as it is believed the former’s preferred candidate, Susan Templeman, has the numbers in the local branches. A national executive imposition would have installed Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle, who in the past has been identified with the “soft Left” but is evidently backed in the current instance by the Right. Searle was previously thwarted in his bid to succeed Debus as state member for Blue Mountains when Debus drafted Phil Koperberg. Benson paints Templeman and Robertson nominee Deb O’Neill as part of a move to follow the Howard-era Liberal strategy of having marginal seats contested by “soccer mums” rather than professional politicians.

• Labor Right faction convenor Matt Thistlethwaite will quit his position as New South Wales party secretary after the federal election and seek preselection for the Senate. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Thistlethwaite’s current position has become untenable after he lost the confidence of Luke Foley, deputy secretary and member of the Left, plus many on the Right when he “moved against Mr Rees last December but then backed NSW Environment Minister Frank Sartor for the premiership rather than the eventual winner, Kristina Keneally”. He will be succeeded in his current position by 27-year-old Sam Dastyari, a protéegé of Employment Participation Minister and Right faction heavyweight Mark Arbib. The evident certainty that Thistlethwaite will secure second postion on the Senate ticket behind John Faulkner means Graeme Wedderburn will not get the Senate seat he was promised when lured from the private sector to serve as chief-of-staff to Nathan Rees. In either event, the seat was to come at the expense of one of two incumbents: Steve Hutchins or Michael Forshaw.

• Labor sources tell Imre Salusinszky of The Australian that Robertson MP Belinda Neal has suffered a blow in her bid to survive Saturday’s preselection challenge from academic Deborah O’Neill, as 2005 attendance and membership records from the Woy Woy branch cannot be located. The branch is considered loyal to Neal, and the records are necessary to establish that members have attended meetings for at least four years, as required of preselectors by party rules. The sources say this could cost her up to 40 votes in a ballot of about 150 preselectors.

Belinda Scott of the Central Coast Advocate reports Labor’s unsuccessful candidate for Cowper in 1998 and 2007, training consultant Paul Sefky, has expressed interest in running again. Sefky appears to harbour a grudge against the paper for its reporting of the manner in which he replaced local area health service worker John Fitzroy as candidate two months out from the 2007 election.

Ben Smee of the Newcastle Herald reports Health Services Union organiser and former ambulance officer Jim Arneman has won Labor preselection for Paterson unopposed. Arneman was also the candidate in 2007, when he fell 1.5 per cent short of toppling Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin. The redistribution cut the margin to 0.4 per cent.

• State upper house member Robyn Parker has been confirmed as Liberal candidate for the lower house seat of Maitland. Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports rival candidates Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd, of Maitland City Council, and Brad Luke, of Newcastle City Council, withdrew ahead of the preselection meeting last Saturday. Maitland mayor Peter Blackmore says he will decide soon whether to run again as an independent, after falling 2.0 per cent short of toppling the now retiring Labor member Frank Terenzini.

• Reporting in the aftermath of last week’s preselection win by upper house member David Clarke against challenger David Elliott, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald said Elliott’s supporters were aggrieved at moderate elements, in particular Fahey government minister Michael Photios, for encouraging him to stay in the race so as to give the faction leverage in other preselection battles. Such leverage was used to secure preselection for Greg Pearce in the upper house and Robyn Parker in Maitland, in exchange for moderate support for Clarke at the expense of Elliott.

From Queensland:

• Nathan Paull of the Townsville Bulletin reports the Labor preselection for Herbert will be determined in the normal fashion, by a ballot divided between rank-and-file members and a central electoral committee, apparently following the intervention of Right faction powerbroker Bill Ludwig. This comes as a blow to former mayor Tony Mooney, who has the backing of the Prime Minister and was looking set to take the position on the intervention of the national executive. Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports Townsville councillor Jenny Hill is “believed to have more backers” in the local party than Mooney. John Anderson of the Townsville Bulletin reports that the Left has been directed (by whom he does not say) to fall in behind Mooney, despite the faction’s long-standing antagonism towards him. The candidate from 2007, local McDonald’s franchisor George Colbran, is yet to decide whether to nominate.

• The Whitsunday Times reports former Whitsunday Shire councillor Louise Mahony has expressed an interest in Labor preselection for Dawson, which James Bidgood is vacating after one term as member for health reasons. Whitsunday Regional Mayor Mike Brunker has ruled himself out. The Liberal National Party endorsed Mackay regional councillor George Christensen in November.

• An “LNP insider” tells Russel Guse of the Central Telegraph that Ken O’Dowd, owner of Busteed Building Supplies in Gladstone, is expected to be a candidate for preselection in Flynn, following the withdrawal last month of Colin Bourke for “personal reasons”.

• Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports Labor preselection in Ryan loom as a contest between Steven Miles and Martin Hanson of the Right, the latter being favoured by Rudd but the former apparently having the edge in the branches.

From the Australian Capital Territory:

• James Massola of the Canberra Times rpeorts Jenny Hargreaves, a public servant with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and wife of former ACT minister John Hargreaves, is considered likely to win the Centre Coalition faction’s endorsement for Labor preselection in Canberra. His rivals are Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr, and Gai Brodtmann, who runs communications firm Brodtmann & Uhlmann Communications and is married to ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Massola says Hargreaves is a friend of the present incumbent, Annette Ellis, and is believed to be close to securing her endorsement. CFMEU industrial officer Louise Crossman has won the endorsement from the Left, and David Garner and Brendan Long are the main competitors for the endorsement of the Right, but it is the Centre Coalition which is believed likely to be decisive. Massola reports Hargreaves’ nomination points to a breakdown in relations between John Hargreaves and Andrew Barr, who are both figures in the Centre Coalition.

• In the ACT’s other seat of Fraser, to be vacated by Bob McMullan, Nick Martin is said to be the favourite after winning endorsement from the Left; George Williams has the backing of Labor Unity (not to mention Malcolm Fraser); and David Peebles and Chris Sant are the front-runners for the Centre Coalition. The preselection for both seats is likely to be determined in late April.

From Victoria:

• After a traumatic final term in parliament, ALP Victorian upper house member for Northern Metropolitan Theo Theophanous has made a surprise decision to quit parliament nine months before the election. His vacancy will be filled by Nathan Murphy, plumbers’ union official and ally of Bill Shorten, who had already been preselected for the election.

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria

The Australian reports the latest bi-monthly survey of Victorian state voting intention has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 57-43 at the previous two surveys. This masks a sagging Labor primary vote, which over three surveys has gone from 43 per cent to 41 per cent to 39 per cent, which is level-pegging with the Coalition (who are up four points on the last survey). The Greens are steady on 14 per cent. John Brumby’s approval rating has slumped six points to 45 per cent, while his disapproval is up three to 41 per cent. Ted Baillieu’s figures are 41 per cent and 39 per cent, up one and down two (thus moving him from net negative to positive). Brumby maintains a commanding lead as preferred premier of 51 per cent to 29 per cent.

UPDATE (1/3/10): Here’s a turn-up: a Morgan phone poll on Victorian state voting intention. Unfortunately, it has a sample of only 407 and a margin-of-error of nearly 5 per cent. That’s as well for Labor, as it has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 37.5 per cent for Labor, 44.5 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. Curiously, the poll was conducted over a 12-day period from February 17-28.

Altona by-election live

Votes Swing 2PP Swing
NAIN 468
Independent 1.6%
MUNDY 500
Independent 1.7%
WINDISCH 513
Socialist Alliance 1.7%
ROSE 9577 8.3% 41.5% 11.7%
Liberal 31.9%
STRANGWARD 3105 1.9%
Greens 10.3%
RIXON 114
Independent 0.4%
SHAW 505
Independent 1.7%
HENNESSY 13558 -15.9% 58.5% -11.7%
Labor 45.2%
.
62.9% counted 14 booths out of 14

9.28pm. Results and swings by suburb. Note the increase in the number of voters and size of the Liberal swing in Point Cook.

ALP LIB GRN 2PP TURNOUT
Altona 42.5%
-16.5%
37.0%
12.1%
13.1%
2.5%
56.5%
-13.4%
4935
-3.2%
Altona Meadows 55.1%
-11.6%
27.4%
10.2%
10.6%
2.4%
66.2%
-10.3%
7723
-2.4%
Hoppers Crossing 48.7%
-11.0%
35.6%
9.2%
9.0%
1.8%
57.7%
-10.4%
5664
-5.9%
Laverton 53.2%
-12.9%
27.6%
9.9%
12.7%
4.3%
65.1%
-11.1%
2193
-11.2%
Point Cook 40.0%
-16.0%
40.7%
11.5%
10.4%
2.2%
50.4%
-15.0%
4873
12.2%
Seabrook 45.1%
-14.2%
35.0%
9.2%
11.8%
3.5%
56.6%
-12.3%
2952
-19.8%
TOTAL 47.8%
-13.5%
33.8%
10.5%
11.0%
2.5%
59.0%
-12.0%
28340
-4.0%

9.05pm. Final notional two-party result in. I make the swing 11.7 per cent.

8.43pm. My Labor source has revised that final figure to 12.0 per cent.

8.33pm. Labor sources inform the final two-party swing for the evening is 11.4 per cent.

8.31pm. Altona West is the last booth to report primaries and it’s swung heavily, boosting the overall result. Still some notional two-party figures to come.

8.20pm. Notional preference counts from three big booths have gone relatively well for Labor, cutting 0.9 per cent from my projected swing.

8.16pm. Was wrong about Seaford Primary being a small booth: 2709 votes, evidently being a big growth area. Result consistent with overall trend.

8.10pm. 16 per cent swing at Boardwalk boosts overall swing.

8.00pm. Outstanding booths are big Altona West, medium-sized Boardwalk and (probably) small Seabrook Primary.

7.46pm. Double-digit primary vote swing to the Liberals at Jamieson Way.

7.37pm. Big Altona Bay and Derrimut booths swing very slightly below average, but the swing is still very likely to finish in double figures on 2PP and well over on the primary vote.

7.33pm. Large Laverton North booth almost exactly in line with existing result.

7.29pm. Altona and Altona Meadows reporting, respectively with heavier and lighter than average swings, collectively making no difference to the existing 2pp swing.

7.26pm. Antony Green confirms Bellbridge is Central Park, but I had misassigned the Laverton booth, not that it mattered much. Lots of differences in booth locations compared with 2006.

7.24. Another relatively mild result at the Laverton booth takes some more edge off the 2PP swing. Still over double figures, but it remains possible it might fall back under.

7.22pm. Not entirely sure where the just-reported Bellbridge booth is – I’m guessing Central Park Community centre for the time being. If I’m right, it’s a relatively mild but still heavy swing against Labor.

7.16pm. I’m informed Altona Meadows CC was a different booth from the one I thought – this means the 2PP swing is about 2 per cent lower than my projection.

7.14pm. Now I have actual preference figures from two booths, the swing looks even bigger – in other words, my preference estimates were flattering Labor.

7.09pm. Modest rise for the Greens so far by by-election standards; still only small booths in, but it looks like the cream of the swing is going to the Liberals.

7.07pm. New Point Cook North booth maintains the existing picture, perhaps despite expectations the new areas would be unusually strong for the Liberals.

7.04pm. Swing only slightly lower at the small Seabrook booth. Labor projected to win, but after a very uncomfortable swing.

7.01pm. Clearly Antony Green has Altona Meadows CC corresponding with the Altona Bay result from 2006, which had also been my lucky guess. So we look to have a swing against Labor of nearly 17 per cent on our first booth. Preference distributions are just estimates at this stage.

7pm. A booth called Altona Meadows CC has reported: not sure which of two Altona Meadows booths it corresponds with, but whichever it is there’s a huge swing against Labor well into the teens.

6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the count for Victoria’s Altona by-election, for which polls have just closed. The table above will show raw results for the primary vote, along with primary vote swings and two-party preferred projections based on booth matching.

Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

The Age has published a Nielsen poll which indicates the state Labor government may have finally lost the shine it gained in the wake of the bushfire disaster. Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, which The Age compares to The Sunday Age’s Saulwick poll from November to point to a five-point reversal. This is Nielsen’s first state poll since November 2008, when Labor led 55-45. Labor holds a one point lead on the primary vote, 40 per cent to 39 per cent, with the Greens on 14 per cent. John Brumby maintains a 13 per cent positive net approval (52 per cent to 39 per cent) while Ted Baillieu is 5 per cent negative (40 per cent to 45 per cent), with the former leading 54 per cent to 34 per cent as preferred premier. The sample for the poll was 1000, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

Altona by-election: February 13

Monday, February 8

The Sunday Herald Sun (report available at VexNews) reports that Labor internal polling conducted by Auspoll has Labor “bracing for a similar sized swing to the 2008 Kororoit by-election where its vote dropped by almost 17 per cent on a two-party preferred basis” – although this meaninglessly compares the Labor-versus-Liberal result in Kororoit at the 2006 election with the Labor-versus-independent result at the by-election. It has been widely noted that new developments around Point Cook and Sanctuary Lakes will have brought an infusion of high-income new voters to the electorate.

Monday, February 1

Background on the candidates from Antony Green.

Friday, January 29

Ballot paper order here.

Thursday, January 28

The Age reports Jill Hennessy, “a 37-year-old lawyer who lives in West Footscray and sits on the board of Western Health”, has won formidable backing in her preselection bid from Steve Bracks, Joan Kirner, Lynne Kosky and Gellibrand MP Nicola Roxon. However, she appears to be facing a serious challenge from 24-year-old Hobsons Bay councillor Luba Grigorovitch, who is determinedly playing the true-local-versus-head-office-outsider card. VexNews reports Grigorovitch is a “rebel Left” candidate running in defiance of an arrangement which reserved the seat for the Right, and in doing so has won support from the NUW and SDA forces which had been frozen out in the Left-Right unity deal (CORRECTION: Andrew Crook points out in comments that I’ve got this wrong: both candidates are from the Left, for whom the seat is reserved). The issue will be decided by a vote split evenly between branch members and the state party’s Public Office Selection Committee.

UPDATE: The ABC reports Hennessy has won; much, much more from VexNews.

Monday, January 25

The Greens’ candidate is David Strangward, a management consultant from Altona North, who managed to get a soundbite on the Channel Ten news this evening. Comments thread chat informs us Margarita Windisch will run for the Socialist Alliance.

Friday, January 22

I am pleasantly surprised to discover, via VexNews, that the Liberals look set to turn the by-election into a two-party contest by endorsing Mark Rose, a Wyndham councillor and police officer who ran in Tarneit at the 2006 election. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor Left figureheads wish to preselect former state party president Jill Hennessy, but she may face opposition from an as yet undetermined candidate sponsored by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, which last night announced it was walking out on the faction.

Thursday, January 21

The Age reports:

The contest for Labor preselection for the seat has already drawn a wide field, including the daughter of the late trade union leader John Halfpenny and a former Victorian Labor president. Party insiders say six women have expressed interest in nominating for the seat. Lori Faraone, a former ministerial adviser to Lynne Kosky, is believed to be the current front-runner, with strong support also for former ALP state president Jill Hennessy. Catherine Van Vliet, a research officer at Melbourne University, and Ingrid Stitt, an officer with the Australian Services Union, have also expressed interest. Other names in the mix are Luba Grigorovitch, a former electorate officer to Ms Kosky and current Hobsons Bay councillor, and Bronwyn Halfpenny, who works for the Victorian Trades Hall Council. The ALP administrative committee will meet on Thursday night to open nominations. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party is yet to decide whether to contest the safe Labor seat, but insiders say there is a strong expectation among members that the party should run. The Greens are planning to pre-select a candidate this weekend.

Tuesday, January 19

Victorian Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky has announced she is quitting politics immediately, citing “significant” but unspecified health problems in her family. This will initiate a by-election in her safe western suburbs seat of Altona, which she won by a margin of 20.2 per cent in 2006. VexNews‘s sources relate that the government is keen to get the by-election out of the way as soon as possible, and that Kosky’s Socialist Left will determine her successor under the terms of the cross-factional unity deal – and will be meeting “as early as today” to decide who gets the nod.

UPDATE: Peter Young in comments relates that writs have been issued in what might be world record time, for a by-election on February 13.

The season to be jolly

Last week’s Essential Research survey, which I neglected to cover outside of comments (Labor were down from 58-42 to 57-43), will be the last until January 18. If last year is any guide, Newspoll should return at the same time. In other developments:

• If the somewhat partisan Townsville Bulletin commentator Malcolm Weatherup is to be believed, aspirants for Labor preselection in Townsville-based Herbert are 2007 candidate George Colbran, former mayor and Mundingburra by-election veteran Tony Mooney (who apparently “will have to overcome the kryptonite of lingering local anger about his running non-Labor candidates on his Titanic ticket in the mayoral elections”), Townsville city councillor Jenny Hill and a James Cook University psychology student. The Prime Minister has apparently promised the decision will be made by the local party, although Weatherup claims he would have preferred to have installed Mooney. Peter Lindsay retained the seat in 2007 by 343 votes.

• Staying in Queensland, Toni McRae of the Fraser Coast Chronicle reports Fraser Coast councillor Belinda McNeven has indicated she may run for preselection in Bundaberg-based Hinkler, where Labor might have been a show in 2007 if their candidate hadn’t been such a dill.

Emily Sobey of the Ballarat Courier reports the Liberals have nominated Mark Banwell, who “works as an adviser to a financial publication in Melbourne”, as their candidate for the federal seat of Ballarat. Ballarat was Labor’s only gain at the 2001 election and has since been retained by Catherine King.

• The aforementioned Emily Sobey article also informs us the Greens have again preselected architect Marcus Ward, who also ran in 2006, as their lead candidate for the upper house region of Western Victoria at the November state election.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Barry O’Farrell has sought to protect Right warlord David Clarke by bringing his state upper house preselection forward from March to February, suggesting he may not be as invulnerable than his factional might makes him appear.

Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Victoria

The Australian has opted to deliver the bi-monthly Victorian state Newspoll result for November-December before the holiday period rather than after. It finds Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 57-43, despite their primary vote dropping two points to 41 per cent while the Coalition remains steady on 35 per cent. The Australian report says the Greens are “steady” on 14 per cent, although this is in fact down a point on last time. John Brumby’s approval rating is up two points to 51 per cent, and his lead has preferred premier has increased from 52-27 to 54-26.