Victorian Politics – Page 24

Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition

Morgan has published its results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling, showing Labor and the Coalition both down half a point on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 45% respectively, with the Greens up two to 12.5%. The headline respondent-allocated preference figure is up from 54-46 to 55-45, but as always with Morgan this is heavily at odds with the 51.5-48.5 result using the industry standard measure of preferences as per the result of the last election. Also as always, it needs to be remembered that the primary vote figures in Morgan’s face-to-face polling are biased to Labor: at the four elections since 2001 Labor’s primary vote has been overstated by an average of 3.7% and Coalition’s understated by 3.6%, although it was less pronounced in 2010 (1.9% and 2.0%).

Morgan has also published phone poll results of state voting intention for New South Wales and Victoria from small samples (479 and 408 respectively), though not as small as some Morgan have passed off in the past. As with other polls, it shows the O’Farrell government holding its ground since the election on the primary vote, on which it leads 49% to 24.5% (51.2% to 25.6% at the election) with the Greens on 13% (10.3%). This time though, Morgan has produced a quirky respondent-allocated preference split which favours Labor: the LNP leads 58.5-41.5 on their published figure, but on 2011 election preferences it would be 64-46, just as it was at the election. Both New South Wales and Victorian results come with figures for leaders’ personal ratings, for what they are worth.

The Victorian figures have the Coalition at 45.5% against 44.8% at the election, Labor at 35.5% against 36.2% and the Greens at 12.5% against 11.2%. This pans out to 53-47 on Morgan’s published preferences figure, or 52-48 using the previous-election method. There was also the matter of Saturday’s Niddrie by-election, which was very easy to overlook because of events in Queensland and the no-show by the Liberals. Labor’s Ben Carroll polled 46.8% compared with Rob Hulls’ 45.7% at the election, with the remainder scattered very evenly among the other eight candidates. The VEC conducted a notional two-party count between Labor and the Greens which had the margin 20.7%, but the Greens actually finished third some distance behind independent Andrea Surace. Preferences were only distributed to the stage where Labor secured a majority, so no two-candidate preferred margin is available (UPDATE: Lenxyz in comments points out I wasn’t looking hard enough: a full preference count shows Carroll with 18371 to 8967 for Surace for a 2PP of 67-33).

Niddrie by-election

UPDATE (6.07pm). With two booths counted, Ben Carroll is travelling nicely on 52.2 per cent, with the Sex Party (9.4 per cent) leading the Greens (8.6 per cent) for second place.

The Queensland election is not the only electoral game in town tomorrow: voters in the north-western Melbourne suburbs seat of Niddrie, which covers suburbs south of the airport from Niddrie itself west to Keilor and south to Avondale Heights, go to the polls to choose a successor to former Deputy Premier Rob Hulls. The Liberals, rather weakly, have opted to sit this one out despite Labor’s solid but by no means overwhelming margin of 6.9 per cent. There is nonetheless a large field of nine candidates, but there is little reason to suspect Labor’s Ben Carroll has much to worry about. A former adviser to Stephen Conroy and earlier to Steve Bracks, Carroll won preselection ahead of Jaclyn Symes, a former electorate officer to Hulls, and solicitor Sebastian “Sam” Agricola. Carroll in fact came third in the local branch with 35 votes to 46 for Agricola and 43 for Symes, with Moonee Valley councillor John Sipek on nine. Agricola, who according to an entry in Crikey’s not-always-reliable “tips and rumours” section is not a member of Labor Unity and hence never had a serious chance in the factional bailiwick of Niddrie, then withdrew before the party’s Public Office Selection Committee added its 50 per cent share of the vote. Labor Unity was split over which of Carroll and Symes to support, with Conroy and Bracks supporting their former employee but John Brumby and Rob Hulls backing Symes. However, John Ferguson of The Australian reported that the factional vote produced a strong 20-4 victory for Carroll, ensuring him an easy victory when the votes from the POSC ballot were added. The Moonee Valley Weekly reports Symes might be a prospect to replace Justin Madden in Essendon, should the eventuality emerge.

The candidates in ballot paper order are Gerrit Hendrik Schorel-Hlavka (Independent), Ben Carroll (Labor), Andrea Surace (Independent), David Hugh Linaker (Independent), Josie Lester (Greens), Michael Deverala (DLP), Amy Myers (Sex Party), Jim Little (Independent) and Frank Papafotiou (Independent).

Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition in Victoria

The last bi-monthly Newspoll survey of state voting intention caused a brief frisson in showing the Coalition’s two-party lead at just 51-49, which in defiance of all conventional wisdom about first-term honeymoons was a weaker result than it achieved at its November 2010 election win. The latest result confirms suspicions that the result may have been slightly roguish, but it equally confirms that the government is not travelling as well as can be anticipated given its youth. The Coalition’s two-party lead is at 53-47, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition (up two) and 33 per cent for Labor (down one). There’s an even worse sting in the tail for Labor leader Daniel Andrews, whose is down seven points on approval to a disastrous 23 per cent and up four on disapproval to 36 per cent (the non-recognition factor evidently remaining very high). The preferred premier rating is nonetheless little changed, Baillieu’s lead down from 53-18 to 51-19, which would have both sides wondering how things might be if Labor found a more popular leader. Personal ratings for Baillieu still to come (numbers as always from GhostWhoVotes).

UPDATE: Full tables from Ghost Who Votes. Over three bi-monthly polls, Baillieu’s net approval rating has gone from plus 23 to plus three. Since the last poll, his approval is down eight to 41 per cent and his disapproval up five to 38 per cent.

By-elections: Port Adelaide, Ramsay, Niddrie

I’ve been a bit lax on the by-election coverage front lately, so here’s a post for discussion of the forthcoming events, including tomorrow’s two South Australian by-elections which will as always be covered live on Poll Bludger tomorrow evening. All three are for safe (or reasonably safe) Labor seats and none will be contested by the Liberals.

• Two by-elections will be held in South Australia tomorrow, to fill the vacancies created by the retirements of former Premier Mike Rann and Deputy Premier Kevin Foley. The more interesting contest is for Foley’s seat of Port Adelaide, where Labor has a weaker primary vote (49.9 per cent in 2010) and faces some reasonably solid opposition from independents. A poll of 402 respondents in The Advertiser last week had Labor candidate Susan Close on 44 per cent, independent Liberal Sue Lawrie on 18 per cent, independent and Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson on 14 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent. There are nine candidates in the field all told.

• The by-election for Ramsay, where Rann polled 57.9 per cent in 2010, is unlikely to present any trouble for Labor candidate Zoe Bettinson, who faces six other candidates.

• Another former Deputy Premier, this time Rob Hulls in Victoria, is also headed for the departure lounge, citing a health scare late last year. The by-election will be held on March 24. Most frequently mentioned in relation to Labor preselection have been Ben Carroll, a ministerial staffer; John Sipek, an aircraft maintenance engineer; and Jaclyn Symes, a former staffer to Hulls. VexNews respectively describes the first two as “highly regarded” and “popular”, which I take to mean they’re from Labor Unity; the latter like Hulls is presumably from the Socialist Left (UPDATE: Shows you how much I know – Hulls is from Labor Unity too, as is Symes. The Moonee Valley Leader notes factional arrangements will ensure the seat stays with Labor Unity.) The Age also mentions Hawker Britton lobbyist Danny Pearson. Despite the government’s one-seat majority and a reasonably modest Labor margin in the seat of 6.9 per cent, the Liberals announced this week they will not be fielding a candidate, prompting a slew of negative headlines.

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

The third bi-monthly Newspoll result since the November 2010 Victorian election has raised more than the usual level of interest by recording a statistically significant drop in support for the Baillieu government, which could not be confident of re-election on the basis of the numbers provided. The poll has the Coalition’s primary vote at 43 per cent, Labor at 34 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent, which compares with 44.8 per cent, 36.2 per cent and 11.2 per cent at the election. On two-party preferred it has the Coalition leading 51-49, compared with 51.6-48.4 at the election. Over the three Newspolls published since the election, the Coalition’s lead has gone to 57-43 to 55-45 to 51-49. As Greens number-cruncher Stephen Luntz noted on this blog when the 55-45 result for September-October was published, it was “easy to imagine (the government) sailed on at the level of the last poll until the Weston/Tilley/Overland stuff hit the media, at which point they dropped down to something like 52 per cent to give this overall outcome”. The poll also shows Ted Baillieu’s approval rating down three to 49 per cent and his disapproval up four to 33 per cent, and his preferred premier lead down from 56-19 to 53-18. Labor leader Daniel Andrews is up a point on approval to 30 per cent and down one on disapproval to 32 per cent. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition in Victoria

The Baillieu government’s second Newspoll shows a slight narrowing of its two-party preferred lead from 57-43 to 55-45, with Labor up two on the primary vote to 30 per cent, the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens steady on 15 per cent. Baillieu’s personal ratings are unchanged, with 52 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval. Daniel Andrews is up two on approval to 29 per cent and down one on disapproval to 33 per cent, and he has made up a small amount of ground on preferred premier, up three to 19 per cent with Baillieu down one to 56 per cent.

UPDATE: Stephen Luntz in comments with a point I was too lazy to make myself:

I never place much reliance on a single poll, but if I was to take this one as gospel I’d say it’s bad for the Liberals. It’s not just that they are way behind where Bracks was in 2000, it’s also that this poll was taken over two months, and the bad news for them was at the end of that period. It’s easy to imagine they sailed on at the level of the last poll (57% 2pp) until the Weston/Tilley/Overland stuff hit the media, at which point they dropped down to something like 52% to give this overall outcome.

Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition in Victoria

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Victorian state Newspoll since the November state election has the Baillieu government enjoying a fairly typical honeymoon bounce, up from 51.6-48.4 at the election to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote of 28 per cent (36.2 per cent at the election) offers the party new cause for woe: they have now had results in the twenties federally and in all five states covered by Newspoll. The Coalition is on 48 per cent, compared with 44.8 per cent at the election. Ted Baillieu’s personal ratings (52 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval) and lead as preferred premier 57-16) are about what you expect from a new Premier facing a new Opposition Leader. However, Daniel Andrews has recorded a below-par debut of 27 per cent approval and 34 per cent disapproval. The polling was conducted throughout July and August from a sample of 1137, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

UPDATE: I’ve reviewed the Newspoll archives to compare Ted Baillieu’s Newspoll debut with other first performances following election victories (no pedantry about Rob Borbidge please). In this context, Baillieu’s numbers don’t look so flash. He sits at the bottom of an fairly even spread from plus 54 at the top to Baillieu’s plus 23. Beneath that are the outliers of Jeff Kennett in 1992 and Richard Court in 1993: two conspicuous examples of elections being lost by the government rather than won by the opposition. Queensland Labor seems to dominate the top of the list, if you want to make something of that. Results are shown as approval-disapproval-don’t know (net approval).

Wayne Goss: 74-20-6 (+54)
Kevin Rudd: 59-11-30 (+48)
Peter Beattie: 64-18-18 (+46)
Mike Rann: 60-15-25 (+45)
Nick Greiner: 56-18-26 (+38)
Colin Barnett: 56-23-21 (+33)
Rob Borbidge: 46-13-41 (+33)
John Howard: 45-12-43 (+33)
Bob Carr: 57-28-15 (+29)
Geoff Gallop: 51-23-26 (+28)
Dean Brown: 47-21-32 (+26)
Ted Baillieu: 52-29-19 (+23)
Jeff Kennett: 41-44-15 (-3)
Richard Court: 32-45-23 (-13)

I’ve also located results for Opposition Leaders who have taken over after election defeats (not immediately after necessarily, but in the early part of the term), which has Andrews performing slightly worse:

Kim Beazley: 39-15-46 (+24)
Ian Taylor: 35-16-49 (+19)
Denis Napthine: 31-14-55 (+17)
Brendan Nelson: 36-19-45 (+17)
Mike Rann: 36-19-45 (+17)
Bob Carr: 29-20-51 (+9)
Colin Barnett: 35-28-37 (+7)
Eric Ripper: 35-34-31 (+1)
Daniel Andrews: 27-34-39 (-7)
Jim Kennan: 26-39-35 (-13)

State polling: WA, NSW, Victoria

Newspoll’s first quarter survey of 827 respondents in Western Australia shows the Coalition government maintaining its commanding position, even if it has failed to pick up any further in the wake of Labor’s leadership ructions in January. Labor’s primary vote has actually picked up two points from the record low of 29 per cent in the last quarter of last year, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 49 per cent and 13 per cent respectively. The Coalition’s two-party lead has edged down from 58-42 to 57-43. Colin Barnett’s personal ratings are much as they were before: approval down a point to 54 per cent, disapproval down two to 33 per cent. Eric Ripper’s ratings have reached a new low following Ben Wyatt’s abortive leadership challenge, although his decline has in fact been quite modest: approval down two to 31 per cent, disapproval up one to 44 per cent. Ripper has actually managed to make ground on Colin Barnett as preferred premier, although the latter maintains an enormous lead of 56-17 compared with 60-16 last time. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

In other state polling news, Roy Morgan has conducted two micro-polls for New South Wales and Victoria which do little more than confirm the fairly obvious point that voters do not feel inclined to turn out brand new governments. The first thing to be noted is that the sample sizes of 345 and 273 entail huge margins of error of between 5 and 6 per cent. If the results still interest you, the New South Wales poll at least offers the novelty of a Coalition two-party vote with a seven in front of it (70.5-29.5) and a Labor primary vote in the teens (19 per cent). The Coalition primary vote is 56.5 per cent, with the Greens on 13 per cent. The Victorian poll has the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition, 31 per cent for Labor and 11.5 per cent for the Greens.

The polls also offer the first personal ratings for the new Labor Opposition Leaders, and while these might have a certain interest the sample sizes and don’t know ratings are such that there’s not really much for them to measure. In New South Wales, John Robertson has 18.5 per cent approval and 22.5 per cent disapproval, with 59 per cent can’t say. Barry O’Farrell has 54.5 per cent approval and 10 per cent disapproval with 33.5 per cent can’t say. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is as big as it gets: 69.5 per cent to 7 per cent. In Victoria, Daniel Andrews has 25 per cent approval, 26.5 per cent disapproval and48.5 per cent can’t say. Ted Baillieu has an approval rating of 50.5 per cent and 23 per cent disapproval with 26.5 per cent can’t say, and leads as preferred premier 60 per cent to 14 per cent.