Category: US Politics

Another thread for discussion of matters American. Since the last instalment we’ve seen Barack Obama win Mississippi 61-37 (19-14 in delegate terms), before running into his first bit of serious campaign turbulence courtesy of the audaciously hopeful Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

A new open thread for discussion of the US presidential election. Barack Obama won easily in Wyoming on Saturday, as he always does in caucuses: on Wednesday our time comes a primary in Mississippi. However, by most observers’ reckoning the last contest of interest is that in Pennsylvania on April 22.

4.50pm. CNN calls Texas for Clinton. Her lead is back to 51-48 with 75 per cent reporting.

4.42pm. Still 50-48 in Texas with 69 per cent reporting, but the trend on raw figures is nudging gently back to Cllinton. We also have 5 per cent of the caucuses reporting with Obama leading 56-44; no idea what to make of this.

4.12pm. Only just noticed how great the New York Times’ graphical maps are. Run your pointer over Texas and note how a lot of the big counties in the Obama-voting cities have a very low count.

4.08pm. … and her lead his now back to 50-48 with 63 per cent reporting.

4.08pm. CNN analyst says most of Clinton’s strong areas in Texas are “in”; if Obama’s early 60-40 lead in Houston holds up, it will apparently be enough to put him ahead, although he stresses that won’t definitely happen.

4.02pm. Clinton has gained another point in Texas, leading 51-48 with 58 per cent reporting.

3.27pm. Been away from my post for a bit. Clinton has claimed victory in Ohio and is currently delivering a speech making it very clear she’s not about to withdraw. Clinton leads 50-48 in Texas with 46 per cent reporting.

2.46pm. Now 51 per cent of precincts in Ohio and Clinton’s lead has in fact widened a little, to 57-41.

2.33pm. Clinton has caught up with Obama in Texas with 20 per cent of precincts reporting: now 49-all. Her lead is only narrowing slightly in Ohio, now at 56-42 with 47 per cent reporting.

2.14pm. Clinton still leads 57-41 in Ohio with 35 per cent of precincts reporting. Talk in comments suggests a 50-50 result in Cleveland, which I gather was expected to be good for Obama.

2.08pm. Interviewee on Fox Radio notes that Rhode Island exit polls were way out, pointing to a close result when it has actually been a big win for Clinton.

1.50pm. 21 per cent of precincts in Ohio now reporting and Clinton’s earlier lead is almost intact – now 59-39. Texas count has edged up to 6 per cent and Obama’s earlier lead has steadily been whittled away, now down to 51-49.

1.36pm. Clinton still leads 60-38 in Ohio with 14 per cent of precincts reporting.

1.31pm. Claude in comments points out another factor in Ohio being the extension of voting in some counties where Obama is expected to do well.

1.28pm. CNN calls Rhode Island for Clinton, her first win since Super Tuesday.

1.28pm. Al in comments notes no precincts are in from the Ohio cities of Columbus and Cleveland, the former being an Obama-friendly college town.

1.23pm. Huckabee announcing withdrawal. Clinton leads 60-38 in Ohio with 6 per cent counted, but this is presumably with Clinton-friendly areas reporting.

1.10pm. Fox reports that Mike Huckabee has confirmed he will withdraw, but says there are “conflicting reports”.

1.04pm. Obama campaign reportedly feeling upbeat about Ohio, the bad weather having diminished the turnout from older Democrats who favour Clinton. Fox gives McCain a clean sweep of Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.

1.03pm. McCain by all accounts now has enough delegates to secure the nomination.

1.01pm. Via Kevin Rennie, an explanation of the Texas system from New Republic.

12.45pm. I’ve had my eye off the ball for the last 45 minutes. Obama has an early 56-44 lead in Texas, but these are big city precincts where he is expected to do well. I’m not going to pretend to be on top of the Texan primaries-plus-caucuses system: perhaps somebody who is can provide a brief explanation in comments.

11.55am. Exit polls point to a “tight race” in Rhode Island.

11.40am. CBS News reporting a very high turnout by Hispanics in Texas and low turnout of African-Americans, boding well for Clinton.

11.30am (Australian EST). Polls have just closed in Ohio, and Fox News has immediately called Ohio for John McCain but predicted a close result between Clinton and Obama. Vermont is being called for Obama and McCain.

The Times (of London) yesterday reported on what looked to me like a political horror story for Barack Obama, involving an Iraqi-born billionaire said by a Pentagon report to have “served as Saddam Hussein’s principle international financial manipulator and bag man”, a multi-million dollar loan conducted through a Central American finance company, and an admission from Obama of “boneheaded mistakes”. Yet it appears to be receiving little coverage in the US, the links in the chain being admittedly rather weak (though since when has that ever stopped anyone in presidential politics?). So Hillary Clinton will evidently have to hope for some other miracle to come along in the four days before the next primaries. The latest polls show Obama streaking ahead in Texas, and closing in fast in Ohio.

We’re now half way through a quiet period in the presidential primaries calendar, which will end with the last major contests in Texas and Ohio next Tuesday. The graphs below show Democratic opinion polling over the past two weeks, bearing in mind that there are almost as many pollsters represented here as polls. The pollsters only record responses from “likely” Democratic voters, which makes it hard for them to get what would strike Australian observers as an impressive sample size: the range was 564 to 902 in Ohio, and 403 to 660 in Texas. Figures sourced from Real Clear Politics.

The last significant presidential primaries until March 4 will be held tomorrow our time: primaries in Wisconsin and Washington for both parties, plus caucuses in Hawaii for the Democrats. Discuss them at your leisure here.

Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

5.00pm. Missouri now being called for McCain, who leads Huckabee and Romney 33.1 per cent to 31.8 per cent and 29.3 per cent. Democratic contest still too close to call in Missouri, but Obama holds a slight lead and the trend has been favouring him for some time.

4.44pm. Fox calls Alaska for Obama. Slow progress in New Mexico.

4.36pm. Everyone now calling Arizona for Clinton.

4.25pm. Fox and ABC call Colorado for Romney.

4.23pm. CBS, Fox and ABC (though not CNN) calling McCain for California.

4.21pm. Obama has hit the lead in Missouri, 49.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent with 98 per cent reporting, after a number of outlets earlier called it for Clinton. Given that Democratic delegates are allocated proportionately, this is mostly of academic interest. Not so the state’s Republican race, a winner-takes-all contest in which McCain leads Huckabee and Romney 33.3 per cent to 32.0 per cent and 29.5 per cent, also with 98 per cent reporting. Fox and ABC are calling it for McCain, but not CNN.

4.13pm. NBC and Fox are both calling California for Clinton.

4.12pm. CBS calls Montana for Romney.

3.56pm. CNN now calling Utah for Obama: he leads 53-41 with 37 per cent reporting.

3.50pm. No significant results yet from Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego or Sacramento.

3.38pm. Clinton leads 55-33 in California with 10 per cent counted, but pronounced regional variations can presumably be expected from a state that boasts both Malibu and Compton.

3.37pm. CNN calling Minnesota for Romney.

3.32pm. Fox’s call of Utah for Obama might also have been premature (I heard it on Fox News Radio; not sure it ever appeared as called on the website). Only 13 per cent reporting and Obama leads 45-44. Presumably the Fox call was based on an exit poll.

3.29pm. Clinton leads 51-40 in Arizona with 48 per cent reporting, but nobody’s calling it.

3.25pm. Fox’s call of Tennessee for Huckabee may have been premature (they’re still saying it on Fox News Radio, but not on the website). He leads McCain 34.1 per cent to 32.4 per cent with 83 per cent of precincts reporting.

3.20pm. McCain gaining on Huckabee in Missouri: now 33-32-29, compared with 35-32-27 half an hour ago.

3.15pm. Fox calls Idaho for Obama and Missouri for Clinton.

3.15pm. Fox calls Colorado for Obama.

3.10pm. Fox says Clinton wins American Samoa, and Romney wins Montana.

3.03pm. Fox News Radio reports McCain doing better than Romney in California from absent votes, but Romney doing better in normal votes. Clinton just ahead of Obama.

3.00pm. Also not sure why nobody giving Romney North Dakota, where he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-23-21-20.

2.58pm. Not sure why nobody calling Montana for Romney: he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-24-23-17 with 89 per cent of precincts reporting.

2.53pm. Nobody calling Missouri Democratic either, but Clinton leads 53-44 with 68 per cent of precincts reporting.

2.48pm. No one is calling the Missouri Republican race: Huckabee leads McCain and Romney 35-32-27 with 66 per cent precincts reporting.

2.46pm. A couple of outlets calling Georgia for Huckabee.

2.38pm. Fox calls Arizona for McCain and Tennessee for Huckabee.

2.29pm. Fox calls Utah for Obama.

2.25pm. Minnesota being called for Obama, who seems to be picking up a lot of the smaller states. Expectations he would perform well in caucuses have apparently been confirmed, boding well for him in Colorado and Idaho.

2.21pm. Fox News Radio and CNN call Connecticut for Obama.

2.15pm. Huckabee giving a speech, and not sounding of a mind to withdraw.

2.14pm. ABC calls Kansas for Obama.

2.08pm. Fox calls Oklahoma for McCain.

2.06pm. ABC also calling Utah for Romney; no surprise of course that he should carry the Mormon state.

2.03pm. Fox News projects Obama as winner of North Dakota, giving him seven states to Clinton’s six, and Utah to Romney.

1.44pm. Romney coming third behind Huckabee in many more places than expected. Almost time to call the nomination for McCain, pending one or two larger states.

1.31pm. CNN, ABC and Fox News Radio say Obama has won Alabama, which was lineball in late polling.

1.21pm. Fox calls Alabama for Huckabee.

1.18pm. Chap on Fox News Radio says McCain has won New York.

1.09pm. Fox calls Delaware for Obama.

1.07pm. CNN calls New York for Clinton, which is no surprise.

12.55pm. Fox calls Massachusetts for Clinton.

12.54pm. Chat on Fox News Radio indicates McCain is looking very good overall.

12.50pm. Winner-takes-all Republican contest for Delaware called for McCain, which was considered likely but not certain.

12.44pm. Arkansas being called for Huckabee, who is clearly doing better than expected.

12.36pm. Tennessee also called for Clinton, which was expected.

12.35pm. CNN calls Arizona for Clinton and Huckabee. The latter would be a big surprise if accurate; polls had Clinton with only a narrow lead.

12.29pm. The Times on Democratic exit polls:

The AP survey’s findings, leaked to The Times tonight before polls closed, should be treated with caution because they have been wrong before. But the early findings showed Mr Obama winning Georgia by 74 points to 25, Alabama by 59 to 37, Illinois by 69 to 29 and Delaware by 55 to 42. He also had narrower leads, possibly within the margin of error, in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri. The poll indicated Mrs Clinton was leading by seven points in New York – less than expected – and Tennessee where she had an 11 point advantage, according to the poll. In Oklahoma and Arkansas she was shown as more than 30 points ahead. In California, she is shown just ahead, by perhaps as little as three percentage points.

12.13pm. CNN is also calling Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton on the basis of exit polling, though these of course are not winner-takes-all contests. On the Republican side, Illinois (district-level PR), Connecticut (winner takes all) and New Jersey (winner takes all) are being called for McCain, and Massachusetts (two-tier PR) for Romney. All of this is consistent with pre-poll expectations.

11.33am. Further to the previous entry: The Raw Story tells us “Geraghty’s leaks of exit poll data have not always proved accurate. For instance, his information before New Hampshire polls closed showed Senator Barack Obama defeating Senator Hillary Clinton.”

11.23am. More on exit polls from Jim Geraghty at the National Review:

The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual. Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent. Winner take all. If these numbers hold – and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney. Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent. Now on to the NYC-metro-area states: New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent. New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent. Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent. More or less what we expected. Now the big Mitt states: The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent. I think I’m ready to call that one. Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35. But in McCain’s home state… Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8. That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected. On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee… Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent. Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23. Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19. Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27. A barnburner! Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18. Not a big state, but it’s winner take all, so I’m sure Team Romney would take it. Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.

11.14am. Various media outlets calling Georgia for Obama purely on the basis of exit polls.

11.10am. Jason Zengerle at New Republic on exit polls:

The perils of posting these are obvious (President Kerry and all that), but the exit poll results that I’ve seen show: Obama trouncing Hillary in Georgia, Alabama, and Illinois; Hillary trouncing Obama in Arkansas and Oklahoma; Hillary with leads in New York and Tennessee; and Obama with leads in Delaware and Utah (although there’s only one wave of exit polls for Utah). Everywhere else–including Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Arizona, and California–is extremely close.

8.20am (Eastern Australian daylight time). This post will be used to cover today’s Super Tuesday developments, though I don’t promise that my coverage will be greatly timely or comprehensive. We’ll see how we go. The action will begin in earnest when polls in most of the eastern states close at 8pm US eastern time – noon eastern Australian daylight time. Polls in all-important California close three hours later. The one conspicuous exception is West Virginia, which uniquely held a state presidential convention today rather than a primary or caucuses. This has already wrapped up, resulting in Mick Huckabee securing the 18 delegates under the winner-takes-all vote. Huckabee won on the second round of voting after trailing Mitt Romney at the first by 464 votes (41 per cent) to 375 (33 per cent), with John McCain on 176 (16 per cent) and Ron Paul on 118 (10 per cent). Paul was then excluded, and at this point McCain’s supporters were reportedly instructed to throw their weight behind Huckabee to thwart Romney. This delivered victory to Huckabee with 567 (51.5 per cent) to Romney’s 521 (47.4 per cent).