Category: Tasmanian Politics

UPDATE (18/7 9pm): Now YouGov, which began the campaign with a poll painting a much rosier picture for Labor than its peers, ends it in the same fashion, while still finding them having faded over the course of the campaign. The Liberal vote is unchanged at 31%, with Labor down four to 30%, the Greens up three to 16% and independents up two to 20%. It also provides a two-party preferred result (redundant of course under Hare-Clark, except for purposes of comparison) showing Labor leading 55-45, and has Dean Winter leading Jeremy Rockliff by the same amount. The poll was conducted July 7 to 18 from a sample of 931.

Tasmania’s unwanted and unloved state election campaign is drawing to a conclusion, and the Poll Bludger will as always be the place to watch the action as it unfolds tomorrow evening, courtesy of a live results facility that will look broadly similar to last year’s, perhaps with a few bonus features if I can work them out in time.

The one bit of substantial late polling comes courtesy of the Liberal Party, which has been providing regular numbers from its internal research by EMRS to The Mercury, and I for one am trusting enough to think they’re not just making them up. The latest result apparently encompasses 1000 responses from two waves of polling this week and last week, the latter of which was reported earlier in The Mercury, and records no change in having the Liberals leading 37% to 26%, with the Greens down one to 14% and the collective independent vote up one to 19%.

Two other minor items of polling: the same Mercury report that has the EMRS numbers relates that Pyxis (the company responsible for Newspoll) finds 34% think the government deserves to be re-elected compared with 53% for “time to give someone else a go”; and Pulse Tasmania reports a Community Engagement finding that 28.3% out of 872 respondents surveyed in the division of Franklin favour David O’Byrne for Labor leader ahead of 15.7% for Dean Winter.

For any who missed it, here’s another embed of my appearance with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, which was recorded on Monday.

The Mercury today reports on a third round of EMRS polling for the Liberal Party, the previous two of which were detailed in the previous post, with the latest encompassing a sample of 518 (the first two were reportedly 550) surveyed from Sunday to Tuesday. The latest result has a reported Liberal lead of 37% to 26%, out from 34.5% to 28.2% in the June 29 to July 1 round, with the Greens up from 13.9% to 15%, independents effectively unchanged at 18%, and the Nationals managing only 3% (remembering that they are contesting only three of the five divisions). Jeremy Rockliff leads Dean Winter 43-30 as preferred premier, in from 45-29 in the first round of polling a fortnight. The report is currently available only in the print edition but will likely be in the online edition by morning.

The Australia Institute has also been ekeing out result of a YouGov poll of 842 respondents conducted from June 12 to 16, which have not encompassed voting intention. The latest batch finds 55% believe Labor should attempt to form a minority government with Greens and independent support if unable to win a majority, with only 31% disagreeing, as compared with a respective 48% and 37% for the Liberal Party. An earlier round had 74% agreeing salmon companies should have to pay royalties for leases over public waters and 14% disagreeing, following a question saying economist Saul Eslake thought it a good idea, and 36% favouring “seeking more federal funding” as the best response to budgetary challenges, ahead of 29% for increasing mining royalties and 12% with replacing stamp duty with land tax on primary residences.

At the end of the first week of the three-week early voting period, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission relates that 16,817 votes have already been cast at pre-poll voting centres, more than double the 7,650 from the equivalent stage of last year’s election. There is no further news on the polling front, which doesn’t come as too much of a surprise, unless you count a social media post from RedBridge Group director Kos Samaras saying he “believe(s) there is another in the field (not ours) that has the Liberals in front by a fair chunk”, which would be consistent with the DemosAU poll and inconsistent with YouGov. The indefatigable Kevin Bonham says he is “aware of a third (private) poll which I may say more about that falls somewhere between these two, with a far lower but still quite high independent vote (around 12%) and the Liberals slightly ahead, with both majors in the low 30s”.

The dominant electoral story of the past week is the Liberal Party’s suggestion that it will challenge the eligibility of Jessica Munday, high-profile non-incumbent Labor candidate for Franklin, on the grounds that her seat on the WorkCover Tasmania board constitutes an office of profit under the Crown. This would presumably involve a challenge through the Court of Disputed Returns in the event that she is elected, which if upheld could lead to another candidate being declared elected or a fresh election being held in Franklin. Kevin Bonham notes the obvious recourse of a recount of the existing votes, as occurs when a seat falls vacant, “would be unsatisfactory as this would reward a party that had run an ineligible high-profile candidate”.

A legal opinion prepared for the Liberal Party goes so far as to raise the prospect of “the result of the general election across all electoral divisions being declared void”, which from this bush lawyer’s perspective seems a bit of a stretch – a view that has the concurrence of Kevin Bonham (again). Labor has responded with legal advice from former Solicitor-General Michael O’Farrell endorsing its position that a constitutional amendment from 1944 distinguishes the state provision from its federal equivalent, such that it does not apply to Munday’s case.

UPDATE (6/7): The Sunday Tasmanian today reports on two rounds of recent EMRS polling for the Liberal Party, from samples of 550 each. The more recent, from June 29 to July 1, had the Liberals leading Labor 34.5% to 28.2%, with the Greens on (I gather) 13.9% and independents on 17.8%. An earlier round from June 15 to 17 had the Liberals on 32.3%, Labor on 28.7%, the Greens on 14.0% and independents on 19.2%. The Nationals hardly registered in either. Results from Franklin, which one would hope combine the samples from both polls, are Liberal 39.2%, Labor 23.0%, Greens 16.1% and independents 21.7%, with the Liberals seemingly expecting a result of Liberal three, Labor one, Greens one and David O’Byrne one, with the last seat a race between independent candidate Peter George and a second Labor candidate. The Liberals are “hopeful of picking up a fourth seat in Braddon after seeing the EMRS results and believe they are also a chance of securing a fourth in Bass”.

Results from a second poll of the Tasmanian election campaign, conducted by DemosAU for an unidentified peak body, have been published in full by Pulse Tasmania, providing breakdowns by division from substantial sub-samples, the overall sample being 4289. The results are markedly more favourable to the Liberals than the YouGov poll, though both have similar field work periods: June 19 to 26 for DemosAU, June 15 to 25 for YouGov. Both major parties are down on the 2024 result, the Coalition from 36.7% to 34.0% and Labor from 29.0% to 26.3%, with the Greens up from 13.9% to 15.0% and independents from 9.6% to 19.3%.

The tables below account for both pollsters’ divisional breakdowns, together with the results from 2024 election.

My own take on how the DemosAU result would play out is that the Liberals could just about hope to maintain their 14 seats, or fall one short; Labor would likely be up one to 11; the Greens could win five six, depending on whether the Liberals get 14 or 13; there would be five independents, up from three; and the Nationals would fail in their bid to account for three seats currently held by the Jacqui Lambie Network. YouGov suggests it’s Labor that could get to 14, reducing the Liberals to 12, the Greens to five and independents to four. To summarise:

Bass. Both polls, though especially YouGov, had an independent vote high enough to suggest that former Jacqui Lambie Network member Rebekah Pentland has some hope of retaining her seat as an independent. Whereas DemosAU suggests this would be in the context of a status quo result (three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens plus Pentland), the YouGov poll, both in terms of its small-sample breakdown and its general thrust, suggests Labor has some hope of taking a seat off the Liberals. The DemosAU poll suggests a second seat for the Greens would in fact be more likely than a third for Labor.

Braddon. Both polls suggest the issue is what will become of the seat won in 2024 by the Jacqui Lambie Network, with DemosAU finding little encouragement for the Nationals in their bid to fill the gap. DemosAU suggests it will come down to a race between a fourth Liberal and a seat for the presently unrepresented Greens, while YouGov’s breakdown suggests a third seat for Labor. Both are encouraging for independent incumbent Craig Garland.

Clark. DemosAU’s 27.5% independent result, which almost matches YouGov’s 30%, suggests incumbent Kristie Johnston will be joined by former senior Liberal Elise Archer, although a lot depends on how it breaks down. With the Liberals over two quotas and Labor and the Greens not far off, the result suggests an independent could poll relatively strongly but still fall short – a status quo result.

Franklin. DemosAU has an extraordinary 35.4% for independents, which suggests that Peter George’s ticket will perform very strongly without depriving independent incumbent David O’Byrne, or win a second seat if it does. The remainder would have Liberal down from three to two, and Labor and the Greens unchanged on two and one. Conversely, the YouGov numbers suggest a third seat for Labor at the expense of a second independent.

Lyons. Here the DemosAU result allows for an independent only if one out of the seven ungrouped contenders dominates the others. Otherwise it looks more like three each for Liberal and Labor (a gain of one in Labor’s case) and one for the Greens. YouGov’s numbers suggest an independent win to be more likely without offering clarity as to whether Liberal or Labor would be reduced to two seats.

Two developments on the Tasmanian election, one being the publication of the Poll Bludger’s election guide, including an overview page and a guide for each seat, each with tables, charts, interactive maps, historical detail and voluminous candidate summaries.

The other is the first public opinion poll of the campaign, which suggests Labor is best placed to emerge as the largest party and has at least some hope of stitching together a government arrangement with the independents rather than the Greens. Conducted by YouGov between June 15 to 25 from a sample size of 1287, the poll has Liberal on 31%, down from 36.7% at the March 2024 election; Labor on 34%, up from 29.0%; the Greens on 13%, down from 13.9%; and a generic independents response on 18%, up from 9.6%. Jeremy Rockliff maintains a 43-36 lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier.

The poll having been conducted before the declaration of nominations on Friday, the independents result (together with the lack of a result for the Nationals, who are fielding candidates in the three non-Hobart divisions) might be thought imprecise. But with the usual caveats applying for small sum-samples, the breakdowns by electorate show a pattern of independent support consistent with recent form, peaking at 30% in Clark, where Kristie Johnston seeks re-election and former senior Liberal member Elise Archer hopes to re-establish a career independent of her old party. The result in Franklin is 20%, as it will probably need to be if Peter George is able to parlay his strong federal election result into a state seat without depriving independent incumbent David O’Byrne. The 19% result in Braddon is encouraging for Craig Garland, and 15% in Bass likewise for Rebekah Pentland.

An question that allowed respondents to choose three out of ten potential motivations for their vote choice interestingly included both “pro” and “anti” options for the Macquarie Point AFL stadium, salmon farming and privatisation. The Macquarie Point options scored 55% between them, shading “investing in more health” on 52%, of whom 33% were “anti” and 22% “pro”, with little if any indication of geographical variation. Salmon farming had 18% for “anti” and 17% for “pro”, with some indication of urban electorates leaning to the former and regional ones the latter. Opposition to privatisation was a motivation for 34%, compared with 18% for support. Respondents were also asked if they supported or favoured privatisation and asset sales, with respective results of 36% and 47%.

There is much to report from Tasmania, as all concerned scramble to get candidates in position for an election no one saw coming. After winning three seats last year and promptly falling to pieces, the Jacqui Lambie Network will not contest the election, while One Nation is not registered at state level. Stepping into the breach to some extent are the Nationals, who are placing themselves at odds with both major parties by opposing the AFL stadium deal, and have recruited two of the three incumbents who were elected under the JLN banner. I’m going to hold off publishing an election guide until the announcement of nominations on Friday week gives me all the information I require. For now, a summary of each of the five contests:

Bass. With recently defeated federal member Bridget Archer joining incumbents Michael Ferguson, Rob Fairs and Simon Wood, the Liberals have a fierce internal contest for their three seats with no guarantee that it won’t be reduced to two. Labor faces a very different situation, with Michelle O’Byrne’s retirement leaving Janie Finlay the only defending incumbent. Other candidates are yet to be announced. Greens incumbent Cecily Rosol is presumably well placed. Rebekah Pentland is the only one of three Jacqui Lambie Network members from 2024 who will seek re-election as an independent rather than with the Nationals, who will presumably field a candidate of their own.

Braddon. Here the Liberal ticket is even more crowded, with two former federal members joining a trio of incumbents that includes Premier Jeremy Rockliff together with Roger Jaensch and Felix Ellis. One is Gavin Pearce, who declined to recontest the federal seat of Braddon at the May election, at which former Senator Anne Urquhart gained it for Labor. The other is Stephen Parry, who served in the Senate from 2005 until the Section 44 crisis in 2017, and last month ran unsuccessfully for the upper house seat of Montgomery. Labor has two defending incumbents, Shane Broad and Anita Dow, and one further candidate announced in Central Coast councillor Amanda Diprose, whose 2.1% vote share at the 2024 election was the fourth highest out of seven Labor candidates. Miriam Beswick is running for the Nationals after winning a seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2024 and parting company with the party shortly afterwards (together with Bass member Rebekah Pentland). Braddon is the only division currently unrepresented by the Greens, whose lead candidate is environmental lawyer Vanessa Bleyer.

Clark. Liberal (Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie), Labor (Ella Haddad and Josh Willie) and the Greens (Vica Bayley and Helen Burnet) each have two defending incumbents. The two majors have each announced a third candidate: the Liberals have Marcus Vermey, a butcher from Sandy Bay who did well to poll 5.5% in 2024, while Labor has Luke Martin, an adviser to Dean Winter and former Glenorchy alderman. Kristie Johnston is seeking re-election as an independent, and a further high-profile independent has emerged in Elise Archer, who held a seat for the Liberals from 2010 to 2023 and served as Attorney-General under three Premiers (each of whom received unflattering assessments from her in text messages that were leaked to the media, precipitating her departure from parliament).

Franklin. The main development here is the candidacy of independent Peter George, who polled 21.7% as a candidate at the federal election with support from Climate 200, outpolling the Liberals and reaching the final preference count. This may complicate matters for the seat’s existing independent, estranged former Labor leader David O’Byrne. The Liberals have three defending incumbents in Jacquie Petrusma, Eric Abetz and Nic Street; Labor two with party leader Dean Winter and Meg Brown, who will be joined on the ticket by Unions Tasmania secretary Jess Munday, fresh from a surprise defeat in the preselection to fill Anne Urquhart’s Senate vacancy. Another party leader, Rosalie Woodruff, is presumably well placed to defend the Greens’ seat.

Lyons. Guy Barnett, Mark Shelton and Jane Howlett are seeking re-election for the Liberals. Labor has two incumbents in Jen Butler and Casey Farrell, but the latter has only been in parliament since March, when he won the recount to fill the vacancy created by Rebecca White’s successful move to the federal seat in May. The Mercury reports a Labor ticket to be announced today will include Brian Mitchell, who held the federal seat from 2016 until he agreed to make way for White. Incumbent Tabatha Badger is defending the Greens’ seat. Andrew Jenner, who was the only one of the three Jacqui Lambie Network members to remain with the party after its fracture in August 2024, will presumably be rubber-stamped as a Nationals candidate at a preselection on Saturday. Also seeking Nationals preselection is John Tucker, who held a seat as a Liberal from 2018 to 2023 and then as an independent until his defeat at the March 2024 election.

Tasmania faces its second state election in 15 months after Governor Barbara Baker today granted the dissolution and July 19 election requested by Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff after his defeat last week in a parliamentary no-confidence motion. Rockliff made his request yesterday, but was told by Baker she would spend the next few days considering all options. However, it appears she heard enough when Labor leader Dean Winter ruled out trying to form a new government, the announcement of the fresh election being made late this afternoon. I will now set to work on getting a guide to the election place as quick as humanly possible, and will as usual be publishing live results and projections on election night and beyond.

The election held in March last year, which was likewise held early in a vain bid by Rockliff to strengthen his position in parliament, returned 14 Liberal, ten Labor, five Greens, three Jacqui Lambie Network and three independent members, with the Liberals forming a minority government after obtaining guarantees from the JLN members (two of whom quit the party in very short order) and more qualified support from two of the independents. The most contentious issue in Tasmanian politics of recent times has been a plan to contribute $615 million to construction of a stadium presently budgeted at $945 million that will house a new AFL team to enter the competition in 2028. As dearly as Tasmanians would love their own team in the competition, there is a distinctive sense that the state is being fleeced by a rapacious AFL and that the imposition is more than the state can afford. However, the plan has the support of both major parties, prompting a sense within Labor that cross-benchers were stealing their thunder in leading the charge against the government on the issue.

When Treasurer Guy Barnett foreshadowed privatisations in bringing down a budget last week that forecast deficit and debt blowouts, Labor leader Dean Winter saw an opportunity to deal the party back in the game by moving a no confidence motion against Rockliff and challenging the cross-benchers to support it. As well as the state of the budget, Labor was also able to invoke the government’s disastrous failure to provide adequate berthing facilities for new Bass Strait ferries operating out of Devonport, prompting the resignation of Treasurer Michael Ferguson last October. Ignoring Rockliff’s threats of a fresh election, the Greens and two independents lent the motion their support, and it duly carried by a single vote last Thursday.

There were suggestions that Winter aimed to do no more than claim the scalp of Rockliff as Premier, but the Liberals have been resolute in their determination to maintain him as leader, in the teeth of criticism from the business community and conservative Liberal Senator Jonathan Duniam. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a view that the party would do better at a prompt election with Rockliff than by “waiting for the next crisis and facing voters with a less popular alternative, such as Michael Ferguson”. For his part, Winter has rejected the notion of Labor taking over without an election in a government that would rely on the support of the Greens.

Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system involves five electoral divisions (the same ones that apply at federal level) electing seven members each (increased from five at the 2024 election), making it difficult for either major party to score a majority. The Greens won five seats last year, balancing a failure in the Braddon division by winning two seats in Clark. Jacqui Lambie says her party will not contest the election, and unless the members have done a better job ingratiating themselves locally than I am crediting them with, their seats in Bass, Braddon and Lyons (the latter being the only one remaining with the party) presumably represent low-hanging fruit for other parties. Presumably better placed are Kristie Johnston (Clark), David O’Byrne (Franklin) and Craig Garland (Braddon), who were elected as independents in 2024.

The most recent poll from the state, conducted by EMRS from May 13 to 17, had Labor in its strongest position since it last held office in 2010, albeit that this amounted to only 31% of the vote, compared with 29.0% last March. The Liberals were down from 36.7% to 29%, with the Greens holding steady on 14% compared with 13.9%. The poll continued to gauge support for the Jacqui Lambie Network, who were on 6%. Labor presumably has high hopes of improving off its low base of two seats in each of the five divisions, particularly after its 9.0% swing in the state at the federal election. However, it faces a major challenge in winning enough seats to meet its own pre-condition of governing without the support of the Greens, and with the Liberals also on the downswing after 11 years in government, there is a strong possibility that the election will fail in its presumed goal of breaking the parliamentary deadlock.