Tasmanian upper house (Elwick) election live

7.29pm. All booths now in: Taylor 48.5 per cent, Labor 38.3 per cent, Greens 13.2 per cent.

7.11pm. Three more booths have slightly increased the Greens vote to 12.9 per cent: Labor now unlikely to crack 40 per cent, Taylor unlikely to crack 50 per cent.

7.04pm. Kevin Bonham: “the bounce to (the Greens) operating in the 2010 state election is either no longer operating or else is being cancelled out by Taylor running as an independent and hence taking more of their votes than Martin did as a Labor candidate”.

7.01pm. Chigwell and Montrose booths leaves the situation unchanged: Taylor to probably come in a bit under 50 per cent, Labor around 40 per cent and remainder with the Greens. Whatever preferences from the latter do, Taylor will won comfortably.

6.52pm. Bonham confirms none of this is a surprise: last time Terry Martin as Labor candidate had exactly the same local strength that Labor does now as the sitting mayor.

6.48pm. Note that Kevin Bonham, who knows what’s going on much better than I do, is following the action in comments. He tells me Adriana Taylor who is “Terry Martin’s successor as Mayor of Glenorchy which more or less coincides with the Elwick boundaries”. So my presumption that this should be an easy recovery for Labor probably wasn’t the conventional wisdom.

6.47pm. Going off booth matching, Labor’s vote is down 16.9 per cent.

6.45pm. Seven booths out of 16 in now, and I don’t think there’s much doubt Taylor’s going to win. A shame I haven’t been following this, because this looks like a rebuff to the government.

6.40pm. Ooh! First figures are interesting. Independent Adriana Taylor wins both the Windermere and Collinsvale booths.

6.30pm. To my shame, I’d forgotten about the periodical election for the Tasmanian Legislative Council district of Elwick (located in northern Hobart) was this weekend. This post will be used for live reporting of the count, although I’m not sure how informative it will be. Here’s the quickest summary I can offer. There are 15 seats in the chamber: as of about two years ago Labor had five and the rest were independents. Then Labor’s member for Elwick, Terry Martin, quit the party and it became 4-11. Last year another Labor member, Allison Ritchie, quit parliament altogether, and the resulting by-election was won by Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin, who had previously been slated as the party’s challenger for a second seat in the lower house division of Franklin (which ended up going to Jacquie Petrusma). That made the numbers 3-1-11. Terry Martin meanwhile became embroiled in a very unpleasant scandal that has obliged him to not seek another term. Under the periodical election calendar the electorate of Aspley, covering the east coast and areas to the north-east of Hobart, was also due to be up for election, but nobody emerged to challenge sitting independent Tanya Rattray-Wagner and she has been elected unoppposed. Somewhat disappontingly given recent events, the Liberals have decided not to field a candidate, so the field is union organiser Tim Jacobson for Labor, “senior policy officer” Kartika Franks for the Greens, and “mayor” (of what I can’t say) Adriana Johnson as an independent. One would presume Jacobson will win very easily, putting the numbers at 4-1-10.

Pembroke by-election live

Tuesday, August 11

The preference distribution has been completed. Goodwin has been elected on the sixth count with 10,143 votes (51.1 per cent), with independent Richard James in second place on 5510 (27.7 per cent) and Greens candidate Wendy Heatley in third on 4125 (21.2 per cent). Goodwin’s final two-candidate margin over James will never been known, but is probably about 10 per cent. Here’s the piece I wrote for Crikey last week:

Tasmania experienced what might have been an Australian electoral first on Saturday: a by-election at which the incumbent party didn’t have the bottle to contest its own seat. Spooked by the circumstances of sitting member Allison Ritchie’s departure, state Labor calculated that a forfeit in the eastern Hobart upper house district of Pembroke would be less humiliating than a defeat. While the scattered vote among eight candidates leaves a lot of preference counting to be done, it’s clear the seat will go to Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin, a Hobart criminologist who had previously performed well at state and federal elections without quite bringing home the prize.

Labor’s calculation that the absence of its own candidate might muddy the waters in favour of a friendly independent proved badly misplaced. The field included two independents identifiable with the Labor cause: Honey Bacon, widow of former Premier Jim Bacon, and James Crotty, a left-winger considered to be the front-runner for a Labor preselection which never eventuated. Both woefully under-performed despite considerable pre-election publicity, failing to poll 20 per cent between them, while Goodwin easily headed the field with 38.5 per cent.

Goodwin will become only the second endorsed Liberal candidate to win a seat in the history of the Legislative Council, owing to a peculiar set of electoral rules which are so encouraging to independents (conservative ones in particular, due to the concentration of Liberal support in rural areas) that the party has long felt its interests are best served by keeping above the fray. The decision to break from tradition by fielding Goodwin, who had been lined up for a second tilt in the five-member lower house division of Franklin, represented a bold challenge by Opposition Leader Will Hodgman to David Bartlett’s government, which is due to seek a fourth four-year term in March.

As well as demonstrating Hodgman’s tactical nous, Goodwin’s success boosts the Liberal cause in terms of morale, fundraising potential and parliamentary talent, providing a capable addition to an Opposition which has had the same seven-member line-up since the 2002 election disaster. The result also suggests Labor has next to no chance of again returning three members in Franklin, which it only narrowly succeeded in doing in 2006. Two of the three then elected, Paula Wriedt and former Premier Paul Lennon, have since left parliament, leaving low-profile neophytes to defend the seats. One more loss on top of Franklin would cost Labor its majority, returning the Greens to a balance-of-power position they have not enjoyed since the major parties sought to nobble them by reducing the size of parliament in 1998.

Monday, August 3

I have an article on the by-election, probably subscriber only, in today’s Crikey. Acres of detail from Kevin Bonham at the Tasmanian Times, while Antony Green looks at the bigger picture.

Saturday, August 1

Please note that these figures are not being updated beyond election night.

# % PROJ.
Vanessa Goodwin 7134 38.5% LIB 38.5%
Honey Bacon 1848 10.0% IND ALP 19.1%
James Crotty 1681 9.1%
Wendy Heatley 2414 12.7% GRN 12.7%
Peter Cooper 1407 7.6% OTH 29.7%
Richard James 2117 11.4%
John Peers 1751 9.4%
Kit (Sharon) Soo 201 1.1%
.
100.0% of booth count conducted
75.2% of enrolled voters counted

8.49pm. 2007 more pre-polls have been added, and like the first batch they’ve gone over 40 per cent to Goodwin. Please note that my projections in the above table are no longer telling you anything useful now that all the booth votes are in.

7.41pm. Fair bit of local variation for informed locals to chew on. John Peers evidently has a lot of fans in the Bligh area, where his 21.0 per cent was over double his vote just about everywhere else. His support there clearly came at the expense of Goodwin, who recorded easily her worst result there. Her other weak booths were strongly Labor Risdon Vale and to a lesser extent Warrane, which provided a pocket of support for Honey Bacon who had her second best result after Risdon Vale.

7.34pm. Goodwin has saved the best till last, Tranmere giving her 49 per cent. The booth vote is now completed.

7.30pm. Excellent results as expected for Goodwin from Lindisfarne and Bellerive, about 40 per cent in each.

7.27pm. The three outstanding booths, Bellerive, Lindsfarne and Tranmere, were the weakest three of all for Labor at the 2007 federal election, hence the disparity between my projection for Bacon plus Crotty and the current total.

7.24pm. Large Howrah booth is Goodwin’s best yet, with 42.3 per cent.

7.21pm. Loatta Road ditto, and a particular poor result for Bacon and Crotty.

7.19pm. Biggest booth yet, Geilston Bay, is another strong result for Goodwin.

7.18pm. Warrane in, another strong result for Goodwin.

7.15pm. Bligh and Risdon Vale are less good for Goodwin, but Montagu Bay continues the trend. The result is no less beyond doubt.

7.10pm. Antony Green pretty much calling it for Goodwin as well.

7.05pm. Wentworth Street booth confirms the trend, and even at this early stage I’d say Goodwin’s lead is unassailable, given the size of the gap between her and her nearest rival, the poor show by Crotty and Bacon, and the tendency of preferences in these elections to a) spray all over the place due to the fact that how to vote cards aren’t allowed, and b) to a lesser extent exhaust due to the fact that voters only have to number three boxes.

6.50pm. 377 pre-polls provide further evidence that Goodwin is looking at an unassailable 40 per cent of the primary vote, and that Bacon and Crotty are doing less well than I expected.

6.45pm. The first booth to report is a normally very strong one for Labor – Mornington – and it’s given Vanessa Goodwin a very strong 34 per cent, and weak results for Bacon and Crotty.

6.33pm. Note the low Greens vote (6.9 per cent) from the mobile count, from an electorate that went about 16 per cent Greens at the last state election and 11 per cent at the last federal, suggesting it’s a conservative sample.

6.25pm. 131 mobile booth votes added, looking encouraging for Vanessa Goodwin, but perhaps these are old people’s homes and such. Still tinkering with my table. When booth results come in, it will show “projected” total votes for Liberal, independent Labor (Honey plus Crotty), the Greens and the others combined, based on swings compared with the 2006 election. I don’t make any guarantees about how good the predictive power this will be.

6.00pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live count of the by-election for the Tasmanian upper house district of Pembroke. There being no small rural booths, I’d say the first results should be in in about 45 minutes. The Electoral Commission’s results should, I guess, be appearing somewhere around here. I’ll hopefully have a table up soon in which numbers will be crunched, but if you find Antony Green more trustworthy he will be doing much the same here.

Pembroke by-election: August 1

Friday, July 31

Tune in tomorrow for the usual live coverage of the count. Michael Stedman of The Mercury has a thorough round-up of the campaign and candidates; Kevin Bonham and Peter Tucker have added a sequel to their earlier overview; and Tucker offers a few more cents’ worth at his own Tasmanian Politics site. Antony Green will also be covering the count at ABC Elections, and explains what will be on offer on his blog. The under-attended candidates’ debate can be viewed on YouTube.

Saturday, July 18

Labor has indeed chickened out, prompting a pertinent question from MDMConnell in comments: “When was the last time the party currently holding a seat refused to contest it at a by-election?” A field of eight candidates has come forward, who are dealt with in ballot paper order below. Further reading from Antony Green, Peter Tucker and Kevin Bonham at the Tasmanian Times, Center for Media and Democracy’s SourceWatch wiki and Malcolm Mackerras at Mumble (not sure exactly when he wrote his email to Peter Brent, but suffice to say the assertion that I had not noticed the by-election is erroneous).

Honey Bacon. The most colourful development of the campaign has been the entry of the widow of former Premier Jim Bacon. As a reporter on the ABC AM’s program noted, the vote-pulling power of the Bacon name appeared to be demonstrated in 1998 when the low-profile and unrelated Labor candidate Ken Bacon won a lower house seat in Lyons, and again when he was returned in 2002 with 14.3 per cent of the vote.

Peter Cooper. Cooper is listed as a Clarence councillor and taxi driver who lives in the electorate at Bellerive. Antony Green tells us he “previously contested Pembroke in 1983 when he polled 10.1 per cent, and 1989 when he polled 14.0 per cent”.

James Crotty. Crotty is a Hobart lawyer, described by Peter Tucker and Kevin Bonham as “left-leaning” and “green-tinged”. He polled 3.8 per cent as a Labor candidate for Denison at the 2006 election, and came close to beating David Bartlett on the countback in 2004 which followed the departure of Jim Bacon. More recently he has been touted as a lower house Labor candidate for Franklin at next year’s state election. It was reported that Crotty was set to be endorsed June 22, but the announcement was withdrawn due to “last-minute commitments”. The Mercury reported that Labor subsequently failed in bids to recruit Julian Amos, a lower house member for Denison from 1976 to 1986 and again from 1992 to 1996, and Wendy Kennedy, a “racing figure and local identity”. Labor then announced it would not field a candidate, at which point Crotty curiously anounced he would run as “independent Labor” and refused to rule out taking a position with the government if one was offered. Crotty has won the endorsement of Harry Quick, the former federal Labor member for Franklin who endorsed Vanessa Goodwin at the 2007 election out of distaste for his Labor successor Kevin Harkins (who was soon forced to stand aside), and more recently considered running against state Treasurer Michael Aird as Greens candidate for Derwent. Aird himself has denied reports he was at odds with David Bartlett’s decision not to formally endorse Crotty as a Labor candidate.

Vanessa Goodwin (Liberal). Antony Green describes Goodwin as “a 39 year-old criminologist and lawyer who has worked for the Department of Police and Public Safety for a decade with responsibility for implementing and managing several crime prevention projects such as Project U-Turn (turning around the lives of young offenders) and Project Samaritan (burglary prevention)”. Goodwin narrowly failed to win a state seat in Franklin at the 2006 state election, and performed more than creditably to pick up a 3.1 per cent swing as federal candidate for Franklin in 2007 – the best result for any Liberal candidate in the country, albeit under difficult circumstances for Labor. Like Crotty, Goodwin was expected to run as a candidate for Franklin at the state election, before the circumstance of the Pembroke by-election presented both candidate and party with an opportunity in which neither had much to lose.

Wendy Heatley (Greens). Antony Green describes Heatley as “a 46 year-old lawyer who works as a Director for the Australian Taxation Office in Hobart”, whose “involvement with the Greens stretches back to the days of the Franklin Dam blockade”. The Greens candidate for Pembroke in 2007, Neil Smith, polled 13.4 per cent, while Antony Green calculates the local booths produced Greens votes of 17.2 per cent and 15.8 per cent at the 2002 and 2006 state elections, and 8.0 per cent and 10.9 per cent at the 2004 and 2007 federal elections.

Richard James. James is an accountant and Clarence City alderman making his third bid for Pembroke. He performed extremely impressively to poll 32.6 per cent in 1995, and more modestly at the 1999 by-election and the 2007 periodical election at which Allison Ritchie was re-elected, respectively scoring 13.3 per cent and 18.4 per cent. He nonetheless made the final two-candidate cut on the latter occasion with 31.2 per cent against Ritchie’s 68.8 per cent. At the 2006 state election he ran in Franklin, polling a very modest 489 votes (0.7 per cent).

John Peers. A Clarence alderman since 1994, Peers polled 9.3 per cent running against Ritchie in Pembroke in 2007.

Kit (Sharon) Soo. Soo is listed as a PR consultant residing in Sandy Bay; beyond that, nothing is known.

Wednesday, July 1

A minor, but potentially very interesting, electoral event will take place in Tasmania on August 1, when voters in the Legislative Council district of Pembroke choose a replacement for outgoing Labor member Allison Ritchie. The Liberal Party’s normal practice of not contesting seats in the Legislative Council makes elections for the chamber, which normally take place for two or three of the 15 divisions each May, of little interest to those attuned to the adversarial cut-and-thrust of partisan politics. However, this time the Liberals have resolved to take the field with a quality candidate in a seat which is one of only four currently held by Labor. It thus looms as a fascinating test of strength for Premier David Bartlett, the apparently popular head of an ageing government who has yet to face the voters, and Opposition Leader Will Hodgman, who seems the Liberals’ most promising leadership prospect in recent memory despite his patchy record in the polls.

Pembroke covers most of the urban area on the Derwent River’s eastern shore, from Otago south through Lindisfarne and Bellerive to Tranmere. The by-election will be held under the newly redistributed boundaries which have added marginal areas at Otago at the northern coastal end and Mornington in the east, neither of which should have a measurable impact. The primary votes from this area at the 2007 federal election were Labor 44 per cent, Liberal 42 per cent and the Greens 11 per cent, with a two-party Labor margin of 5.6 per cent.

Ritchie announced she would quit parliament on June 20 after enduring a storm of controversy over her appointment of several family members to her staff. She was first elected to the seat in 2001 when she defeated independent incumbent Cathy Edwards, in large part due to her successful attacks upon Edwards’ dual role as Mayor of Clarence, and easily won re-election in 2007. Ritchie claims to have been the victim of a plot from within her own party, which presumably explains why she has decided to go now rather than wait for the more convenient juncture of early next year, when a by-election could be held with the state election in March (though Antony Green is unsure whether this is feasible) or the annual periodical upper house elections in May.

Things got really interesting last week when the Liberals, after initially signalling that they would follow their normal practice of sitting the election out, announced as their candidate Vanessa Goodwin, a Hobart criminologist who narrowly failed to win a state seat in Franklin at the 2006 state election, and performed more than creditably to pick up a 3.1 per cent swing as federal candidate for Franklin in 2007 – the best result for any Liberal candidate in the country, albeit under difficult circumstances for Labor, with popular incumbent Harry Quick retiring and his nemesis Kevin Harkins, the state secretary of the Electrical Trades Union, being forced to stand aside as candidate after his union became the focus of Coalition attacks. Given the disastrous performance of Liberal candidates in the upper house when the party last tested the waters in 2002, which voters evidently saw as an intrusion on the chamber’s cherished independence, this appears a bold move. However, there are reasons to believe circumstances will be different this time, partly due to the standing of the candidate, but also because this election is taking place in an urban rather than rural seat. It is in Hobart that Labor has succeeded in getting candidates elected, and it presumably follows that city conservatives are also less attached to the Legislative Council as an extension of local politics.

Remarkably, it is now Labor that is considering not fielding a candidate. It was reported that Hobart lawyer James Crotty was set to be endorsed June 22, but he withdrew due to “last-minute commitments”. Matthew Denholm of The Australian named as possible candidates Julian Amos, a lower house member for Denison from 1976 to 1986 (including a spell as minister in the Lowe/Holgate government from 1979 to 1982) and again from 1992 to 1996; Pharmacy Guild director Louise Sullivan; and Roger Joseph, former staff member for Harry Quick. Another interesting name to emerge was Kevin Harkins, whose recent re-emergence as a potential Senate candidate has been vigorously opposed by the Prime Minister. Evidently it is feared that none of these candidates will be the goods to take on Goodwin. A decision from the party was expected this afternoon, and has presumably been made but not yet reported.

The Greens have announced they will field a candidate, but are yet to say who. Michael Stedman of The Mercury also reported that Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy councillor and Liberal Party member who polled strongly against Treasurer Michael Aird in the May periodical election for Mersey, was considering standing, but she has presumably thought again now the Liberals are fielding an official candidate.

More from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics.

Morgan: 57-43

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, down from 58-42 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down 0.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 2 per cent to 38 per cent and the Greens are down 1 per cent to 7 per cent.

In other news, it’s all happening in Victoria:

• Peter Costello’s surprise announcement that he will not contest the next election has raised the flag on another epic Victorian Liberal preselection stoush in his Melbourne seat of Higgins, which housed successive Liberal prime ministers in Harold Holt and John Gorton. Furthermore, Costello has raised the possibility of an early departure and a by-election, “if it’s in the party’s interest”. Immediately prior to Costello’s announcement, Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam signalled his intention to run if Costello stood aside, after earlier testing the waters in Kooyong (see below). However, Peter van Onselen in The Australian reports that Costello has resolved to oppose Roskam due to equivocal comments he made to David Penberthy of The Punch about Costello’s future value in politics. Van Onselen further reports widespread displeasure at this and other remarks seen to be in breach of Liberal rules that preselection aspirations are not to be discussed with the media. Costello reportedly wishes for the seat to go to a former staffer, Kelly O’Dwyer. It had earlier been reported that O’Dwyer might depose incumbent Ted Baillieu loyalist Andrew McIntosh in the state seat of Kew. The other big name in the Higgins mix is Mal Brough, who has moved to Melbourne and is said to be hopeful of a return to politics that doesn’t involve further dirtying his hands in the morass of the Queensland Liberal National Party. However, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports party sources say he has “no chance”. Also mentioned are former state party director Julian Sheezel, who was said to be backed by Costello but opposed by Michael Kroger when talk of Costello’s departure was in the air after the election, Jason Aldworth, a former banking colleague of Michael Kroger and more recently a consultant for Crosby Textor; and, intriguingly, Tom Elliott, hedge fund manager and son of John, who memorably sought to depose Roger Shipton as member for this very seat in pursuit of his prime ministerial ambitions.

• Merchant banker Josh Frydenberg has won the hotly contested preselection to succeed Petro Georgiou as the Liberal candidate for Kooyong. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Frydenberg won the second round ballot over industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto by 283 votes to 239 after all other contenders were excluded in the first round. The result is a defeat for Ted Baillieu, whose power base had pursued various stratagems designed to thwart Frydenberg, the preferred candidate of the rival Kroger faction.

• The ALP national executive’s role in Victorian state preselections has been further expanded following John Brumby’s decision to refer to the body all state upper house preselections for next year’s election. Labor insiders quoted by David Rood of The Age relate that the decision will “all but end” the career of Theo Theophanous, who faces a vigorously contested rape charge and was recently among those named adversely in the state Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. This week the national executive acted as expected in relation to a number of lower house preselections referred to it in the wake of the latter imbroglio, selecting former Trades Hall Council deputy secretary (and wife of New South Wales Senator Steve Hutchins) Natalie Sykes-Hutchins to replace George Seitz in Keilor and confirming incumbents Telmo Languiller, Rob Hulls, Marsha Thomson and Marlene Kairouz in Derrimut, Niddrie, Footscray and Kororoit. It has also been confirmed that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will seek to move to the lower house by nominating for preselection in Essendon, to be vacated by the retiring Judy Maddigan. In his absence, the national executive has chosen incumbents Martin Pakula, Khalil Eideh and Bob Smith to head the ticket in Western Metropolitan (Smith currently represents South-Eastern Metropolitan).

• Helen Shardey, Victorian Shadow Health Minister and member for Caulfield, has indicated she will stand down at the next election. It had been reported she faced a preselection challenge from David Southwick, previously unsuccessful in the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and for the state upper house Southern Metropolitan in 2006.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that former Liberal MP Phil Barresi, whom he describes as a “factionally unenthusiastic Krogerite”, has been given the green light to attempt to recover the seat of Deakin which he held from 1996 until his defeat in 2007. Barresi reportedly won on the first round over eccentric perennial Ken Aldred, who was dumped in favour of Barresi in 1996 after peddling weird conspiracy theories, and one Deanna Ryall. Perhaps Barresi is encouraged by the precedent of 1984, when the Liberals unexpectedly recovered the seat (with some help from a redistribution) after losing it when the Hawke government was elected in 1983.

Elsewhere:

Glenn Milne in The Australian reports on the Labor succession in the federal seat of Macquarie, which will be vacated at the next election by Bob Debus. As Milne tells it, Debus or his supporters put it about that his recent decision to withdraw from the ministry and bow out at the next election, which helped the Prime Minister no end as he sought to construct a new cabinet in the wake of Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation, was conditional upon Debus being given the right to anoint his own successor. This was hotly disputed by Right powerbrokers who are bitterly opposed to Debus’s objective of freezing out industrial barrister Adam Searle, a Left faction colleague but personal rival.

• Two new goodies from Antony Green. An extensive paper for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library provides all manner of detail on the state’s Legislative Council election in 2007, while an accompanying blog post scrutinises the performance of the optional preferential above-the-line voting system introduced after the 1999 election produced a tablecloth-sized ballot paper and elected candidates from groupings that would be flattered by the “micro-party” designation. He further discusses the potential for such a system to resolve the issues which saw Steve Fielding elected to the Senate in 2004. For the more casual election enthusiast, a new 2010federal election calculator allows you set the two-party result to taste to find out the seat outcome in the event of a uniform swing. It turns out a 50-50 result would give the Coalition exactly half the seats and presumably allow it to govern with support of the three independents. Labor loses its majority at 50.8 per cent.

• Queensland independent MP Peter Wellington has introduced a private member’s bill providing for fixed three-year terms, with an escape clause if a new government cannot be formed in the wake of no-confidence motion and a provision allowing for a five-week postponement if there is a clash with a federal election or a “widespread natural disaster”. The major parties both support fixed four-year terms, which unlike Wellington’s proposal would require a referendum. Negotiations for such a referendum broke down last year when then Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg insisted on further unrelated reforms, but his successor John-Paul Langbroek has foreshadowed a more “flexible” approach in future discussions with the government.

Christian Kerr of The Australian evaluates the Australian political blogosphere.

UPDATE: Thanks to Rebecca in comments for bringing my attention to the fact that Allison Ritchie, Labor member for the Tasmanian Legislative Council district of Pembroke, yesterday announced she would quit parliament after enduring a storm of controversy over her appointment of family members on her staff. This will presumably result in a by-election shortly in Pembroke, where Ritchie defeated an independent incumbent in 2001 and won re-election in 2007. The Electoral Act allows the government enormous latitude on the timing of such a by-election, so I’ll hold off on giving it its own post until its intentions become clearer. Ritchie claims to have been the victim of a plot from within her own party, which presumably explains why she has decided to go now rather than wait for the more convenient juncture of early next year, when a by-election could be held with the state election in March or the annual periodical upper house elections in May.

Tasmanian Legislative Council elections live

NOTE: Results below were not updated beyond the day after the election. Official results are available from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

WINDERMERE VOTES % SWING PROJECTED
Dean* 7015 39.2% -11.2% 39.0%
Hay 4788 26.9%
Kaye 1750 9.8%
Sands 1433 7.9%
Whish-Wilson (GRN) 2904 16.3%
.
MERSEY
Gaffney 8344 42.9%
Jamieson 2590 13.3%
Laycock 3140 16.1%
Martin 5389 27.7%
.
DERWENT
Aird (ALP)* 9746 51.6% -25.9% 51.4%
Branch 6328 33.5%
Gunter (GRN) 2811 14.9%

Sunday

5.30pm. The last exclusion in Windermere shows Ivan Dean will be elected over Kathryn Hay by about 55-45. Whish-Wilson’s votes went 2,229 to Hay and 1,545 to Dean with 191 exhausting, leaving Dean on 9,743 (55.05 per cent) and Hay on 7,956 (44.95 per cent). While there will still be late counting of postals and the rest and a formal distribution of preferences at a later time, that wraps up the Poll Bludger’s coverage. Once again, congratulations to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission for promptly resolving the outcome and keeping the public informed of all aspects of the count’s progress, from which a couple of larger and presumably better funded bodies on the mainland could learn a thing or two.

5.15pm. The final exclusion in Mersey elects Mike Gaffney over Steve Martin with a two-candidate split of 11,676 (59.99 per cent) to 7,784 (40.01 per cent).

4.30pm. Now Kaye’s 2087 votes have been distributed in Windermere, going 836 to Dean, 647 to Hay and 604 to Whish-Wilson. Next up, the big one – 3965 votes to be distributed from Whish-Wilson, including 2904 of his own, 457 received as preferences from Sands and the 604 from Kaye. Hay needs to close a gap of 2473 votes, remembering that voters need only need number three preferences so some votes will start to exhaust at this point.

4pm. Another round of applause is due to the TEC for providing progressive updates on its provisional preference distribution. In Windermere, last-placed Ted Sands’ preferences have gone 457 to Greens candidate Peter Whish-Wilson, 347 to Ivan Dean, 337 to Peter John Kaye and 292 to Kathryn Hay. Rechecking has also given Dean a handy boost, docking 101 votes from Hay’s tally at the George Town booth. Hay now needs to make up a 2282-vote gap from the exclusion of Whish-Wilson (3361) and Kaye (2087). In Mersey, the elimination of last-placed Caroylnn Jamieson has sent 1107 votes to Gaffney, 828 to Martin and 636 to Laycock, so Gaffney needs fewer than 300 preferences from Laycock’s total of 3723 to defeat Martin. In other words, the only issue is the size of his margin. In Derwent, Kevin Bonham in comments corrects my earlier statement that there was no Greens candidate in 2003 – party affiliation was not listed at the time, but the one candidate who opposed Michael Aird ran under the party banner.

1am. A Tasmanian Electoral Commission media release informs us that a “provisional distribution of preferences” will be conducted today in Windermere and Mersey. Props are due to the TEC for this, and also for their counting of pre-polls and postals on election night.

Windermere. Kathryn Hay needs two-thirds of the minor candidates’ preferences in the context of a system which only requires voters to number three boxes (out of five in this case). I expected that Ivan Dean would win reasonably comfortably, and have emerged from the count duly impressed by the vote-pulling power of Kathryn Hay, whom Labor would do well to pursue if they’re not already. Antony Green: “It’s worth noting that Ivan dean’s vote held up in George Town, near the site of the proposed Gunns Mill, but was down between 10 and 20% through the rest of the electorate.”

Mersey. The only issue at stake here is the size of Mike Gaffney’s margin. I had tended to think Gaffney would suffer from his association with Labor, owing to past indications outside of Hobart of antipathy towards major party influence in the chamber, and the advancing years of the government. The success of a candidate who has been openly contemplating a ministerial position with the government might have been heartening news to Labor …

Derwent. … if it weren’t for the 26 per cent drop in Michael Aird’s vote, which can only be partly explained by the entry of the Greens (who have polled 15 per cent). Antony Green: “If you compare tonight’s result with the 2006 state election within Derwent, Labor has polled 51.6% compared to 64.8% in the Derwent booths, the Greens 14.9% compared to 10.3% in 2006, and Jenny Branch has polled 33.5% where the Liberal Party polled 22.9% in 2006.”

Saturday

7.58pm. Some pre-polls added for Mersey and postals for Windermere (good work by the Electoral Commission getting on to this on election night, and for what seems a well conducted count all round). The latter have gone 45 per cent to Ivan Dean, giving him a slight boost.

7.53pm. The last remaining booth, Newnham in Windermere, has reported a par for the course result. Ivan Dean’s career in politics depends on the flow of preferences from the Greens and two independents to Kathryn Hay.

7.51pm. All booths now in from Mersey – Gaffney’s vote has fallen a little further, but he’ll still win.

7.47pm … but Valley Road pulls him back again. Only Addison Street and Turners Beach to come.

7.44pm. Gaffney gains a further 0.5 per cent in Mersey from the large Devonport Central and Spreyton booths.

7.41pm. Kevin Bonham on Windermere preferences: “In Windermere just Newnham and postal to come, and Dean leading by nearly 11% on primaries. On the current figures, assuming Kaye’s preferences break evenly, Hay will need 73% of Sands and Whish-Wilson’s prefs to beat Dean assuming zero exhaust. But a few percent do exhaust and if enough anti-mill voters refuse to preference either Hay or Dean the exhaust % could be higher. At the moment Dean should survive, unless the Kaye prefs break against him as well.”

7.35pm. All booths now in from Derwent.

7.31pm. More booths in from Windermere, leaving only Newnham to come. Ivan Dean still looking shaky against Kathryn Hay.

7.27pm. Three more booths from Derwent, leaving just Austins Ferry and Bridgewater to come.

7.21pm. What’s more, the swing against Ivan Dean has picked up with the addition of further booths.

7.18pm. Despite what I’ve been saying, Kevin Bonham in comments reckons Ivan Dean is “not safe” as Hay will get Greens preferences. I tend to assume preferences in these elections scatter around a bit more than that, but local issues might mean that doesn’t apply here.

7.16pm. Four more booths added from Mersey.

7.14pm. 448 pre-polls and 1083 postals added for Derwent.

7.10pm. Most Derwent booths now in, Aird continuing to hover around 50 per cent.

7.09pm. Four more Windermere booths consistent with the overall trend.

7.07pm. Three more booths from Mersey suggest Mike Gaffney should win quite comfortably unless something unusual happens with preferences.

7.01pm. Three more booths from Windermere. Kevin Bonham in comments noted that the Norfolk booth which reported first was a good booth for the Liberals, but these have maintained the trend of an 8 per cent dip in Ivan Dean’s vote which should not be enough to trouble him.

6.55pm. Three more booths from Derwent maintain the overall trend.

6.53pm. Four booths, mobile and Hobart in from Mersey, and Mike Gaffney’s looking very good.

6.49pm. Seven new booths from Derwent. Looking very much like Aird will have to rely on Greens preferences, which he would have to rate as a disappointing result.

6.48pm. Changed the way I calcuate the swing and projection to correct for that.

6.44pm. Mobile votes in from Windermere as well – they dampen the swing shown (and boost the projection) because Ivan Dean is coming off a base of zero.

6.42pm. First results from Windermere are from Hobart and the substantial Norwood both – Ivan Dean down by 8 per cent, but looking good to retain the seat.

6.40pm. I should stress that the big booths at Bridgewater, Brighton, Claremont and Norfolk get 10 times as many votes as these ones, and they might tell a different story.

6.39pm. Kevin Bonham in comments notes these booths are showing the Greens vote much higher than at the state election. Fremantle home against West Coast.

6.33pm. Westerway in as well, and Aird’s vote there is down 36.4 per cent – if this keeps up he might have to rely on Greens preferences. Perhaps the trend showing to date is something to do with small booths beyond the orbit of Hobart.

6.31pm. Maydena booth reporting – Aird down 24.5 per cent there as well (remembering he polled 77.3 per cent overall last time).

6.30pm. Explanatory note: my “projection” is a projected primary vote, calculated by applying the swing shown on reporting booths with the total result in 2003. Obviously this is only being done with the incumbents.

6.28pm. Very big swings against Aird in both places, as should be expected against stronger competition, but not enough to suggest trouble.

6.27pm. Two small booths added for Derwent – Bronte and the booth in Hobart city – so the table’s looking good again.

6.25pm. 48 “mobile” votes added for Derwent. Since there was no such count in 2003, the “swing” currently shown for Aird is off a base of zero. Best ignore my “projection” for now! (It adds the booth swing to his total 2003 vote).

6pm. Polls have closed in the elections for the Tasmanian state upper house seats of Windermere, Mersey and Derwent. This post will provide live coverage, with first results due in in about half an hour. Further coverage from Antony Green at ABC Elections.

Tasmanian upper house elections: May 2

Friday, April 24

Legislative Council maps available for enjoyment courtesy of Adam Carr and Ben Raue. You can also access ABC Local Radio forums with the candidates for each of the three divisions from ABC Elections.

Tuesday, April 21

On Saturday week, one fifth of Tasmanian voters go to the polls – or at least, ought to go to the polls – to perform some reupholstering on the state’s 15-member Legislative Council. Members of said chamber are elected for six-year terms on a rotating basis, which sees either two or three of the single-member divisions face the voters each May. Of the 15 members, four are Labor and the remaining 11 are independent, including former Labor member Terry Martin. The Liberals have traditionally not fielded candidates, and were badly rebuffed when they did so in the early 2000s. This year is the turn of Derwent, held for Labor by Treasurer Michael Aird; Windermere, where independent Ivan Dean faces re-election; and Mersey, which is vacated by retiring independent Norma Jamieson. Further reading from Antony Green and Tasmanian Politics.

Windermere occupies interesting electoral real estate on the eastern bank of the Tamar River, from the mouth through Bell Bay of Gunns pulp mill fame on to the northern and eastern suburbs of Launceston. Ivan Dean, the member since 2003, has attracted a surprisingly large field of four challengers, who perhaps detected vulnerability when he failed to win re-election as Launceston mayor in 2007. Best known of these is Kathyrn Hay, a former Miss Australia who served a term in the lower house after being recruited by Labor. After surprisingly choosing to bow out in 2006, Hay is now running as an independent, and Peter Tucker of Tasmanian Politics reckons she “clearly has a chance”. Peter John Kaye is a former broadcaster and adviser to various federal ministers including Warwick Smith, and is presumably of Liberal sympathies. Ted Sands is a Launceston councillor who ran third in the mayoral election. Antony Green tells us he is “a former member of the Labor Party and nominated for Labor Party pre-selection in Bass ahead of the 2007 Federal election”. Also in the field is Greens candidate Peter Whish-Wilson, who not surprisingly is a “prominent anti-pulp mill campaigner”.

Mersey covers Devonport and its immediate surrounds. An open contest following the retirement of independent member Norma Jamieson, this has curiously failed to attract any more newcomers than Windermere. Lynn Laycock is well credentialled as mayor of Devonport, but she faces strong competition. Mike Gaffney is an interesting departure from the upper house norm. Since turning down an offer from David Bartlett of Labor preselection in Braddon, he has quit the party and decided to make his mark as an independent. However, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports he has “refused to rule out accepting a future ministerial position in a Labor government”, while Bartlett continues to describe him as a “good candidate”. How this will appear to voters who traditionally vote to defend the independence of the upper house remains to be seen. Carolynn Jamieson is the owner of local transport and metal fabrication businesses, a fluent Mandarin speaker and, significantly, the daughter of outgoing member Norma. A recent precedent for keeping it in the family was Tania Rattray-Wagner’s win in 2004 in Apsley, on the retirement of father Colin Rattray. Steve Martin is a Devonport restaurant owner and chairman of the Mersey Community Hospital group, who happily fesses up to work as “a part-time Electorate Officer for local Labor MPs”.

The great disappointment of this round of elections was former federal Labor MP Harry Quick’s abandonment of his plan to run against Treasurer Michael Aird in Derwent. The division extends from Hobart outskirts for about 100 kilometres through the Derwent Valley. Aird is opposed by independent Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy councillor and Liberal Party member said by Antony Green to be seeking preselection for Denison in 2010, and Susan Gunter for the Greens.

I am maintaining my yearly ritual of tallying independents’ voting in divisions, but as there have been only four this year there isn’t much to write home about. The table shows the proportion of divisions in which each member has voted with Labor. I have been dividing it into substantive and procedural votes since 2007. Note that Sue Smith has recently taken over the position of President from Don Wing, who had not recorded a vote since 2003.

. 2007-09
ALL
2007-09
SUB.
2002-07 expiry
Jim Wilkinson (Nelson) 3/11 1/9 25/59 (42%) 2014
Sue Smith (Montgomery) 8/11 6/8 19/58 (33%) 2013
Greg Hall (Rowallan) 8/12 7/10 27/64 (42%) 2012
Don Wing (Paterson) 0/4 0/4 2/14 (14%) 2011
Ruth Forrest (Murchison) 7/14 7/11 8/16 (50%) 2011
Tanya Rattray-Wagner (Apsley) 8/14 7/11 11/27 (41%) 2010
Terry Martin (Elwick) 3/13 3/11 0/1 (0%) 2010
Norma Jamieson (Mersey) 3/12 3/10 8/36 (22%) 2009
Ivan Dean (Windemere) 11/14 9/12 13/39 (33%) 2009
Kerry Finch (Rosevears) 6/14 6/12 22/45 (49%) 2008
Paul Harriss (Huon) 7/15 5/12 10/64 (16%) 2008
Tony Fletcher (Murchison) 6/48 (13%) 2005
Colin Rattray (Apsley) 19/36 (53%) 2004

Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread

So much going on at the moment that it can’t wait for the next opinion poll post:

• Brendan Nelson’s announcement he will vacate his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Bradfield at the next election could initiate another of the classic preselection clashes for the NSW branch of the Liberal Party has become justly famous in recent years. Party sources quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian say the preselection will be “the most open and hotly contested since Bronwyn Bishop succeeded Jim Carlton in the neighbouring seat of Mackellar in 1994”, with no clear front-runner and neither Right or Left controlling the seat. However, it is also “understood party bigwigs are intent on avoiding a repeat of the preselection debacle in 2007 in the southern Sydney seat of Cook”. Salusinszky’s report floated the possibility of his paper’s conservative pundit Janet Albrechtsen taking the field, but she promptly ruled herself out. Live possibilities apparently include another connection with The Australian in Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor and staffer to Nelson; Arthur Sinodinos, John Howard’s legendary chief-of-staff; Nick Farr-Jones, former rugby union international; Julian Leeser, executive director of the Menzies Research Centre; Geoff Selig, former state party president; Alister Henskens, barrister and local party office-holder; David Elliott, former Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive; Paul Blanch, a sheep farmer who ran in Calare in 2004; and, as always, Adrienne Ryan, former Ku-ring-gail mayor and ex-wife of former police commissioner Peter Ryan. The Sydney Morning Herald reports we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for a result:

A state executive meeting tomorrow is likely to discuss the timetable for the preselection race but because of a redistribution of seats in NSW, the final ballot will not be held until the end of the year. Because of that, most Liberal insiders believe the final candidate has yet to emerge.

• The Electoral Commissioner’s federal electoral determination has been published, confirming redistributions will need to occur to remove a seat from New South Wales and add one to Queensland. There seems to be some confusion abroard as to whether this scotches any chance of an election this year. As Antony Green explains, it is indeed the case that Queensland cannot be deprived of the seat which it is constitutionally entitled to at the next election now that the determination has been made, and it is indeed true that a redistribution process takes the better part of a year. However, the Electoral Act lays out a set of procedures for “mini-redistributions” in these circumstances, in which the two most or least heavily enrolled adjoining electorates in the state are either divided into three or merged into two. This has never happened before, and there would be obvious political difficulties in justifying an election held under such slapdash arrangements if it could possibly be avoided.

• Could Western Australia’s May 16 daylight saving referendum be the catalyst for a super Saturday of state by-elections? It certainly seems war clouds are gathering over the electorates of the two most powerful figures in the defeated Carpenter government: Jim McGinty, the member for Fremantle, and Alan Carpenter himself, who holds the neighbouring seat of Willagee (surely I have not so pleased the Lord that He would grant me neighbouring same-day by-elections in my own backyard?). According to Jenny D’Anger of the Fremantle Herald:

In the face of persistent rumours that veteran state Labor MP Jim McGinty is about to trigger a by-election for Fremantle by announcing his retirement, the Greens have called a war cabinet to talk tactics and anoint a candidate. It is all but certain they will choose South Fremantle’s Adele Carles, who came within a whisker of taking the seat at last year’s state election … Ms Carles says if the powerbroker is considering calling it quits he should do it so the by-election can coincide with the daylight saving referendum in May, saving thousands of dollars … The tom-toms have been beating for weeks that Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri was the shoe-in as Labor’s choice to replace Mr McGinty. But more recently a senior union figure has emerged as a front-runner, which a Labor insider says had Mr Tagliaferri threatening to run as an independent (Word around the campfire is that this refers to Dave Kelly, one of McGinty’s successors at the LHMWU – PB). The Herald’s Labor source said Alan Carpenter also had to be taken into account: If the former premier decides to quit politics the union figure may prefer Mr Carpenter’s safe Willagee seat, which is not threatened by the Greens. This would leave Fremantle open for Mr Tagliaferri. But both Mr McGinty and Mr Tagliaferri are denying a by-election is imminent. “It’s no more than rumour-mongering,” Mr McGinty barked down the phone, adding he stood by the Herald’s report last November that he had no plans to go early but was unlikely to run again in 2013.

• Killjoy Harry Quick has gone back on his threat to run against Treasurer Michael Aird as Greens candidate in the looming upper house election for Derwent. According to the ABC, Quick says “his family has played second fiddle to his political aspirations for too long”. An earlier report said he was “understood to be ready withdraw his nomination due to family pressure to stay true to the Labor Party”.

Essential Research: 61-39

Newspoll seems to have taken the week off, but there’s always Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead up to 61-39 from 60-40 last week. Also featured are questions on becoming a republic within the next few years (52 per cent support, 24 per cent oppose – the latter sounds a bit low), whether Australia should agree to allow Japan to conduct whaling if it limits its activities to the northern hemisphere (10 per cent agree, 81 per cent disagree), “how would you rate your loyalty to your employer” and “how would you rate your employer’s loyalty to staff”. Furthermore:

• The silly season endeth – Kerry O’Brien and Lateline are back, and parliaments federal, Victorian and South Australian resume today.

• The Australian Workers Union has released a comprehensive survey of workers’ attitudes to the global financial crisis, derived from 1016 interviews conducted by Auspoll. The headline finding is that 40 per cent fear losing their jobs in the next year.

• Parties’ disclosures of receipts, expenditure and debts are available for perusal at the Australian Electoral Commission, at least so far as donations of over $10,500 are concerned. Siobhain Ryan and Imre Salusinszky of The Australian and Bernard Keane of Crikey sift through the evidence; the latter also opens fire on the Coalition over its obstruction of legislation reversing the 2005 disclosure threshold hike. Keane notes that one travesty can’t be pinned on the previous government: that we have had to wait until February 2009 to find out what went on at an election held in November 2007. Anyone who imagines this has something to do with logistics should consider the practice in New York City, where donations have to be declared before election day and “made public immediately on a searchable, online database”.

• Antony Green returns from a fortnight in the wilderness (literally) with a belated post-mortem on the Liberals’ defeat in South Australia’s Frome by-election. As I suspected, independent Geoff Brock owes his win to a peculiarity of the state’s electoral system that saves ballot papers with incomplete preferences by assigning them the preferences officially lodged by their favoured candidate. Without this provision, 258 ballots that were thus admitted the day after polling day would have been informal, leaving Brock 38 votes behind Labor at the second last count rather than 30 votes ahead. Another issue has been brought to my attention by Kevin Bonham, who points to the fact that a certain number of Liberal voters harmed their candidate’s chances by voting Liberal rather than Labor. If 31 such voters had tactically switched to Labor, Brock would have been excluded and the distribution of his preferences would have given victory to Liberal candidate Terry Boylan. Public choice theorists call this flaw in preferential voting “non-monotonicity”, which is elaborated upon here (although Bonham reckons “some of their worked examples are wrong”).

• Antony also gets in early with a preview of Western Australia’s May 18 daylight saving referendum, which combines customary psephological insight with a keen eye for the state’s lifestyle peculiarities.

• Former Labor MLA Kathryn Hay will run as an independent for the Tasmanian upper house division of Windermere (extending from the outskirts of Launceston north to the proposed site of Gunns’ Bell Bay pulp mill), challenging independent incumbent Ivan Dean at the poll likely to be held on May 2. Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics reports that one of the the other two seats up for election, the Devonport-based division of Mersey, looms as a clash between Latrobe mayor Mike Gaffney and Devonport mayor Lyn Laycock. Mersey is being vacated by retiring independent Norma Jamieson.

• Staying in Tasmania, a recount has confirmed that the last remaining Labor candidate in Franklin from the 2006 election, Daniel Hulme, will assume the lower house seat vacated by former Tourism Minister Paula Wriedt.

• Mining magnate and former National Party director Clive Palmer is making himself visible as the Queensland state election approaches, having been profiled last week on The 7.30 Report and in a cover story for The Weekend Australian Magazine. The latest salvo in Palmer’s charm offensive is a demand of $1 million in damages for defamation from Anna Bligh, who said there was “something just not right about one billionaire owning their own political party” (the annual financial disclosures discussed previously list $600,000 in donations from Palmer to the Liberal and National parties). Sean Parnell’s Weekend Australian piece describes Palmer as a “notorious litigant”, who “once listed it as a hobby in his Who’s Who entry”. Palmer’s 18-year-old son Michael has been preselected as the Liberal National Party candidate for the safe Labor seat of Nudgee.

Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that Nationals-turned-Liberal Senator Julian McGauran will face a number of challengers in his bid for one of the two safe seats on the Victorian Senate ticket, with other incumbent Michael Ronaldson “widely expected to claim top spot”. The field includes prominent Peter Costello supporter Ross Fox, barrister Caroline Kenny and solicitor Cate Dealehr. Other names mentioned by Andrew Landeryou’s VexNews are Terry Barnes, a “former Tony Abbott adviser”, and Owen Lysaght, who ran as an independent in Chisholm in 2004.