After a period in which we have only had sketchy reporting of sometimes dubious private polling, the Courier-Mail offers the first statewide poll of Queensland voting intention in two months, courtesy of YouGov (and while I’m on the subject, please note my recently published Queensland election guide, to which you will find a permanent link on the sidebar).
The result is somewhat at odds with some of the media narratives in showing Labor with a 52-48 lead, reversing the result of the last such poll in early June. Both major parties are on 37% of the primary vote, which is up five in Labor’s case and down one in the LNP’s, while the Greens are steady on 12%, One Nation is down three to 9% and Katter’s Australian Party is down one to 2%. The most recent state poll was a Newspoll in late July, conducted by YouGov but published by The Australian rather than a News Corp tabloid, which had the LNP ahead 51-49 from primary votes of Labor 34%, LNP 38%, Greens 12% and One Nation 11%.
• Labor leads 57-43 in Brisbane, a 1% swing to the LNP compared with the 2017 election, suggesting Labor may struggle to retain Aspley (1.2%) and Mansfield (1.6%). The primary votes are Labor 42% (43% in 2017), LNP 34% (31%), Greens 16% (13%) and One Nation 6% (9%).
• The LNP leads 54-46 on the coasts, a 3% swing to Labor, enough to net Labor Bonney (1.7%) on the Gold Coast and put the LNP under pressure in Currumbin on the Gold Coast (3.3%) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast (3.4%), and perhaps also Pumicestone (0.8%) which straddles the Sunshine Coast and outer metropolitan Brisbane. The primary votes of Labor 33% (27%), the LNP 46% (43%), Greens 12% (11%) and One Nation 7% (12%).
• The LNP leads 53-47 in the regions, a 1% swing in their favour – and while regional results are prone to be variable, this would bring Labor-held Mundingburra (1.1%) in Townsville down to the wire if uniform. The primary votes are Labor 32% (30%), LNP 35% (31%), Greens 7% (5%), One Nation 14% (21%) and Katter’s Australian Party 7% (8%).
On leaders’ ratings, Annastacia Palaszczuk is at 57% approval (up eight from the last YouGov, but down six on a Newspoll result a fortnight ago) and 27% disapproval (down six on both YouGov and Newspoll), while LNP leader Deb Frecklington is at 29% approval (up three on the June YouGov poll) and 32% disapproval (down three), indicating an unusually high uncommitted rating even for a state Opposition Leader. Palaszczuk holds a 48-22 lead as preferred premier, out from 44-23 in the June YouGov poll.
The poll has an unusually large sample size of 2000 – big enough to produce credible sub-samples for the regional breakdowns – as well as an unusually long field work period, running from Thursday, September 24 to Thursday, October 1.