The first poll of the Queensland election campaign has emerged courtesy of the Seven Network, which promptly commissioned the fast workers at ReachTEL to conduct an automated phone poll last night that captured 1583 respondents. So far as voting intention is concerned, the result doesn’t do much to encourage talk of a Liberal National Party recovery achieved on the back of Operation Boring. The poll has the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, albeit that this marks a shift from 51-49 in favour of Labor at the last such poll on November 28. Both major parties have recorded a slightly higher primary vote, with Labor’s 38.1% (up 0.8%) being its best result from ReachTEL since the Newman government came to office, and the Liberal National Party’s 40.3% being 1.1% higher than last time. This time the difference comes off other, down from 9.1% to 7.7%, rather than Palmer United, which is at 6.3% only 0.2% down on the November poll, but 9.1% below its peak in July.
There are better indications for Campbell Newman on personal ratings, with his very good rating continuing an ascent from 13.4% in early to September to 17.5% in late November to 21.7% now. However, his very poor rating has been stable, and at 32.4% is high in absolute terms. Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ratings are perhaps suggestive of a slight tendency for voters to be jumping off the fence, with the middle rating on the five-point scale (satisfactory) down from 31.7% in late November to 28.7%, very good up 1.4% to 12.9%, and very poor up from 16.3% to 19.4%. The overall net ratings, subtracting negative responses from positive, are minus 11.1% for Newman and minus 8.5% for Palaszczuk. Further questions on preferred LNP leader, whether the LNP deserves re-election and who respondents expect to win produce almost identical results from last time, which you can read all about here.
Essential Research has also provided results of state voting intention combined from its weekly polling during the first half of December, which in the case of Queensland encompassed a fairly limited sample of 507. This result had Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, after the LNP led 52-48 in November, with primary votes of 38% for the LNP (down two), 37% for Labor (up two), 10% for the Greens (up two), 5% for Palmer United (down one) and 3% for Katter’s Australian Party (steady).