Category: Federal Politics 2025-2028

Post-budget federal polling part one (open thread)

Four polls record variable impacts on voting intention after a negative response to last week’s federal budget.

As always, a flurry of federal polling is emerging in the wake of the budget, with more to follow over the coming days. Newspoll in The Australian finds Labor holding its ground on 31% of the primary vote, the winners out of any budget backlash seemingly being One Nation, up three to 27%, putting them well ahead of the Coalition, down one to 20%, with the Greens down one to 12%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are unchanged at 40% approval and 57% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is respectively up three to 36% and up two to 48%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Albanese’s lead at 46-38, in from 46-37.

This is despite perceptions of the budget’s impact on the economy being the worst recorded since Labor’s horror post-election budget in 1993 (Newspoll has consistently posed the same suite of post-budget questions since 1988), with 22% rating it good for the economy (in fact no different from last year’s budget, which came six weeks before Labor’s landslide win) and 47% bad (up 15 points on last year). In terms of personal financial impact, the net result is the worst since the Abbott government’s disastrous debut budget in 2014, with 11% expecting they will be better off and 52% worse off. However, this is not immensely worse than for the Albanese government’s first budget in October 2022, for which the respective results were 12% and 47%. On the other regular Newspoll post-budget question, relating to whether the opposition would have done better, the results are unremarkable: 39% say yes and 47% no, compared with 38% and 47% last year.

Further questions find 48% expecting the budget will worsen inflation, 9% improve it, and 32% make no difference; 39% expecting they will pay more tax, 7% less, and 41% no change; 27% rate it a step in the right direction on housing, compared with 38% for wrong direction and 22% for no difference; and 26% felt the government was “rebalancing the playing field to make things further” compared with 47% for “driving a wedge between younger and older generations” and 18% for neither. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1252.

Other polls are less sanguine with respect to Labor’s electoral standing, the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers finding them down three points to 29%, with the Coalition unchanged on 23%, One Nation up one to 24% and the Greens up one to 12%. The poll notably has Angus Taylor leading Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister by 33-30, after Albanese led 33-32 last month. Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 34%, while his poor plus very poor rating is up four to 56%. Taylor is respectively down four to 37% and up three to 29%.

The Resolve Strategic poll finds 24% saying the budget will be good for their household compared with 35% for bad. Thirty-six per cent say the broken promises have damaged their view of Labor, with 31% saying they have not and 14% holding that their view of Labor has improved. However, pluralities are recorded in favour of the changes in capital gains tax, supported by 36% and opposed by 21% with the remainder undecided or neutral, and negative gearing, supported by 35% and opposed by 21%. Of 11 budget measures canvassed, only the cancellation of further work on the Inland Rail project, supported and opposed by 27% apiece, does not find more supportive than opposed.

A Freshwater Strategy poll for the News Corp papers records a tie on two-party preferred, after a 53-47 in the pollster’s last result three weeks ago, with Labor down three on the primary vote to 29%, the Coalition up two to 25%, One Nation up one to 26% and the Greens down one to 11%. The poll finds 21% rating the budget as positive and 46% as negative in terms of economic impact. Forty-five per cent say the changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax and trusts have reduced their trust in Anthony Albanese and Labor, with 13% saying their trust has increased. Forty-one per cent say they are less likely to vote Labor compared with 15% for more likely. Fifty-eight per cent believe the budget increases the chances of further interest rate rises, compared with 10% for decreases and 21% no effect. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1384.

A poll by Wolf & Smith, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 1002 (for “Amplify, a non-partisan community group founded by tech investor Paul Bassat”, as related by the Financial Review), has Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 24%, One Nation on 22%, the Greens on 11% and others on 13%. It finds pluralities in favour of the changes on negative gearing (41% with 32% neutral and 27% opposed) and capital gains tax (38% with 35% neutral and 26% opposed), but only for those who own their homes outright is it felt the impact will more likely be positive than negative (37% positive, 43% neutral, 20% negative), followed by prospective homebuyers (34%, 28% and 38%). Only 16% said the changes would be positive for renters and mortgage-payers, with a respective 45% and 43% expecting it to be negative.

Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)

In a quiet week for federal polling, Roy Morgan records only modest changes on last week’s result.

Newspoll didn’t report this week on its normal three-weekly schedule, presumably to allow clear air for the Farrer by-election. But we do have the weekly result from the ever-reliable Roy Morgan, which had Labor up a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one to 25%, One Nation up half to 22% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on preference flows from the 2025 election. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1605.

Farrer by-election live

Live results and commentary on the count the federal by-election for Farrer.
Projected 3CP Projected 2CP Win Probability

Click here for full display of Farrer by-election results

End of evening

Writing in advance of last week’s Nepean state by-election in Victoria, I noted that the share of an electorate’s population that was over 18 and had no educational qualifications beyond high school was a highly useful predictor of One Nation support at the South Australian election in March: the specific formula being 0.543 – 0.555x. That formula suggested One Nation would score 26.6% in Nepean and 31.9% in Farrer, whereas the actual results were 24.5% and (on current counting) 39.4%. In both cases One Nation enjoyed the benefit of a forfeit by Labor, whose vote shares at the previous election were and 32.6% and 15.1% respectively. Clearly then Farrer was a stronger result for One Nation than Nepean, and can also be considered above the par of the South Australian result. Two factors likely explain the relatively weak result in Nepean: a less vigorous One Nation campaign and a state Liberal Party in better electoral shape than its counterparts federally and in South Australia.

Another two random observations. First, turnout appears to be on track for around 86%, where the by-election norm is more like 82%. This raises the possibility that One Nation’s surge has enthused previously disengaged voters. Secondly, as I noted during the count, Coalition preferences look to have split about 60-40 in favour of One Nation over Michelle Milthorpe, which is quite a lot stronger for Milthorpe than I would have guessed — about the same as in the independent-versus-One Nation contest for Stuart at the South Australian election, where the independent (Geoff Brock) would seemingly have been more attractive to conservative voters than one who has struggled to shake off the “teal” tag (with how-to-vote cards favouring One Nation in both cases). One possibility is that Liberal and Nationals efforts to tar David Farley with the Labor brush (which “brought 1996 attack ads to a 2026 realignment”, in the estimation of Kos Samaras) had an impact on the voters who remained loyal to them, while failing entirely to entice defectors back into the fold.

Election night commentary

12.15pm. I believe we’re done for the evening, with all booths reported on both the primary and TCP apart from the oddity of the electronic assisted voting result. Late counting will mostly be postals and a small number of provisionals, neither of which are likely to change a One Nation margin that reduced from 9.4% and 7.3% when the big pre-poll booths reported at the very end of the evening.

11.05pm. All but two pre-poll booths are in, recent additions including the Albury pre-poll with nearly 12,000 formal votes, which will knock a point or two off the current raw 59.5% One Nation vote when it reports on two-candidate preferred.

10.24pm. The Griffith pre-poll voting centre becomes the largest booth to report so far with 6582 votes, and it too is a bit below par for One Nation.

10.10pm. The Leeton pre-poll voting centre has provided the first substantial new numbers in over an hour, other than a few special hospital results. Its 2794 votes are a bit above par for Milthorpe and a bit below for One Nation.

8.55pm. The election day booth count is pretty much completed, not counting special hospital and remote mobile results that probably aren’t getting done tonight. However, pre-poll voting centres that collectively accounted for over 38,000 votes are yet to come through, and should in theory do so tonight, though larger centres (Albury pre-poll centre had 12,586 votes) sometimes don’t report until the following day.

8.40pm. My projection and the published TCP result have settled at around 58-42, meaning One Nation have achieved a slightly bigger win over Michelle Milthorpe than Sussan Ley. One Nation are doing at least as well on pre-polls as on election day votes; the postals that are in are stronger for Liberal and weaker for One Nation than the remainder, but about the same on the One Nation-versus-Milthorpe two-candidate count.

8.18pm. David Farley and One Nation are claiming victory. If you’re enjoying my coverage — which among other things provides the only place where you can easily observe the booth results — please consider a tip through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of the post. The results feature in particular involves a lot of work and actually costs money to run, at least in months where the mapping goes over the Google bandwidth limit (as it did very handily in the month of the South Australian election).

8.09pm. This seems a particularly bad result for the Liberals, whose primary vote — barely into double figures — is only slightly shading the Nationals, whose weak showing is less of a surprise. This is never good territory for the Greens, but it may be noted that their vote share is down more than half even in the absence of a Labor candidate. Right-wing small parties are collectively down by around half as One Nation sucks out their oxygen.

8.03pm. Around two thirds of the booths are now in on the primary vote, which includes two of the 12 pre-poll voting centres, both from rural areas. One of which is a little better for One Nation than the local election day booth, the other a little worse. I remain surprised by the evenness of preferences — the estimates I was using at the very start of the count would have allocated about 65% of these preferences, nearly 80% of which are coming from parties of the right, to One Nation. Currently it looks more like 55%.

7.35pm. I’ve just farewelled myself from Ben Raue’s live webcast, which ended with us both concurring that One Nation had gained the seat. My results system had in fact done so nearly half-an-hour earlier, but as noted, it was always my feeling that it was going to go too hard too early for One Nation. Now though we have enough booths in from Albury that it seems that Michelle Milthorpe will at best equal her result there from 2025 against Sussan Ley, and perhaps go backwards slightly, when she needs to be winning these booths big to redress rural booths that are in some cases going against her by upwards of 80-20. The one glimmer for her as I noted was that she seems to be doing better than expected on Liberal and Nationals preferences, but as those parties are only accounting for about 20% of the vote between them, this doesn’t decisively change the overall pictures.

6.30pm. We have a booth in, which is Rankin Springs in the electorate’s north. The good news is that my results system is functioning, the bad news is that it’s been too aggressive too early, so don’t take the “probability” reading too seriously until some real numbers are in.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Farrer by-election. From 6:30pm to 7:30pm I will be appearing on a live webcast hosted by Ben Raue of The Tally Room, so I probably won’t have much to offer in the way of commentary during that period, which will start at around the time the first results are in. We can expect that to happen quite quickly as this is a largely rural electorate with many of the 94 booths (including remote mobile and multiple special hospital booths) dealing with perhaps as few as 150 votes that won’t take long to count. On the other hand, the fact that there are 12 candidates will slow things up at least somewhat.

First, some insight into what my results facility is trying to achieve here. The two-candidate preferred result from the 2025 election was Liberal-versus-Michelle Milthorpe, which few expect to be repeated this time, including the AEC who are conducting a One Nation-versus-Milthorpe count, in line with what is generally expected to be the result. That means there is no historic data to work off in projecting swings in two-party terms. However, my own system is more concerned with projecting off the primary vote, and then filling the gap with an estimate of preference flows. These will be entirely estimated for the early part of the count, and will then switch to the flow indicated by the two-candidate count when enough of it has been conducted.

I am a little wary that my system will be too aggressive in calling it for One Nation based on the first results, which will be from rural areas where One Nation will be especially strong. This becomes troublesome for projection (at least the way I do it) when we have a paradigm shift of a result. The primary vote swing to One Nation in the early booths seems likely to be extremely high, and applying that swing to the final result from 2025 may serve to overestimate them. When larger booths come in from bigger population centres, notably Albury, the One Nation swing may come down, and with it the projected result. In other words, there’s a good chance my system will be calling it for One Nation quicker than I’d like to. If betting markets are on the money, this will ultimately be academic: Betfair is offering $1.10 on a One Nation win, $6.20 for Milthorpe, $10 for the Liberals and $20 for the Nationals.

Farrer by-election minus two days

A summary of campaign developments ahead of Saturday’s Farrer by-election, where an emerging consensus has One Nation’s David Farley as the front-runner.

Two days to go until the Farrer by-election, which as always is the subject of a Poll Bludger election guide and will be covered here on election night and beyond with live results and projections (see the Nepean results page for an idea of how that will look) and attendant commentary.

The only opinion poll to have emerged during the campaign came from independent Michelle Milthorpe’s camp, and in showing her almost level with One Nation candidate David Farley on the primary vote it suggested she was not quite where she needed to be, given that Liberal and Nationals preferences will assuredly favour Farley. As for the Coalition’s own prospects, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column spoke last week of “anecdotal reports” of Liberal polling that put its support “in the low teens and falling”, while former Nationals leader David Littleproud said in March that he expected the party to finish last (which he presumably meant out of Farley, Milthorpe and the Liberals).

A Liberal source quoted by Sky News struck a still more encouraging note for Farley in saying he would win “even without preferences from the Coalition”. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals’ decision to favour Farley over Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards has “Labor hardheads stumped”, given the imperative for the Coalition to deny One Nation a foothold in the lower house. In her column in Nine Newspapers today, Niki Savva notes two explanations: that conservatives in both parliament and the party membership “would have gone nuclear” if they did not favour One Nation (also the view of Campbell’s Liberal sources), and that Milthorpe once elected would prove impossible to dislodge, “whereas One Nation MPs tend to implode and quit”.

For all the high expectations surrounding his prospects, Farley has had a troubled campaign. Reports over the past few weeks have noted he made a donation to Milthorpe’s campaign for the 2025 election, describing her at the time as a “straight shooter”, and had expressed interest in running as a Labor candidate at the 2022 election. Farley has departed from key points of his party’s script, telling a candidates’ debate last week that the number of migrants coming to Australia was “not too high”, and saying one advantage of better economic management would be in allowing for “more generous” foreign aid.

For her part, Michelle Milthorpe has sought to distance herself from the “teal” label, invoking as her model Cathy McGowan and her successor Helen Haines, independent members for Indi on the other side of the Victorian border. Milthorpe told The Australian earlier this week that net zero by 2050 was “untenable”, that coal and gas must “play their part”, and that Australia should consider opening more oil refineries. The Australian last week reported that Milthorpe’s claim that Climate 200 had provided only 2% of her campaign funding was complicated by the $60,000 she has received from Regional Voices Fund, whose donors largely overlap with Climate 200’s. She has also indirectly benefited from the more than $500,000 raised by progressive campaign group GetUp! to target One Nation during the campaign.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly YouGov poll for Sky News reports improvements in Labor’s primary vote and Anthony Albanese’s personal standing.

The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up three points to 30%, the Coalition up one to 21%, One Nation down three to 24% and the Greens steady on 14%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition is unchanged at 54-46, but is much improved against One Nation at 57-43, out from 53-47. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor is steady on 38% and down one to 42%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 45-36, and his lead over Pauline Hanson is out from 50-39 to 54-35. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample size unspecified in the report, which was likely around 1100 (UPDATE: It was actually 1500, as is typical for this series).

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor steady at 29.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down one to 21.5% and the Greens down one to 13%. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is unchanged at 54.5-45.5, while its lead on previous election preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1681.

Federal polls: RedBridge Group and Freshwater Strategy (open thread)

Two similar sets of voting intention numbers, and an improved result for the government on its handling of the fuel crisis.

Two new federal poll results:

• The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group poll that finds the Coalition recovering from what was perhaps a too-bad-to-be-true result last month, with Labor down a point to 31%, the Coalition up five to 22%, One Nation down two to 27% and the Greens steady on 13%. Two-party preferred measures have Labor leading the Coalition by 54-46 and One Nation by 55-45 (in each case compared with 53-47 last time). A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese at 33%, Pauline Hanson at 23% and Angus Taylor floundering at 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are improved by five points in net terms, with his approval rating at 34% and disapproval at 43%. Angus Taylor is up one to minus two, Pauline Hanson down two to minus one, Matt Canavan up one to minus two, Larissa Waters down two to minus four, Chris Bowen down two to minus 16, and Donald Trump down three to minus 58. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1014.

• The Sunday News Corp papers had a Freshwater Strategy poll with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 23%, One Nation on 25% and the Greens on 12% — numbers identical to the last such poll a month ago. Anthony Albanese leads Angus Taylor by 44-38 on preferred prime minister. Net approval ratings are plus 10 for Angus Taylor, plus four for Matt Canavan, plus five for Pauline Hanson (down five), and minus nine for Albanese. The poll found 30% would be more likely and 24% less likely to vote One Nation if it entered a coalition with the Liberals and Nationals, while 34% would be more likely and 27% less likely to vote for the Liberals or Nationals. The poll also shows a marked improvement for the government on its response to fuel prices, with 31% now satisfied, up from 17% in last month’s poll, and 47% dissatisfied, down from 59%. Thirty-three per cent said they were satisfied with the government’s response to the Iran war, up three, with dissatisfaction at 37%, up four. The government’s announcement of cuts to the NDIS had 47% supportive and 25% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware and 31% not aware. Considerable further detail should follow reasonably shortly on the pollster’s website.

Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two new federal polls are both little changed on last time, with one recording an improved view of relations with China.

The monthly poll from Essential Research has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition steady on 24%, One Nation up a point to 25% (overtaking the Coalition for the first time in this series) and the Greens up a point to 11%, with a further 5% undecided. The Coalition continues to have its nose ahead of Labor on this pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has the Coalition up two to 49% and Labor up one to 47%, with the balance undecided. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and steady at 51% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down one on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 34%.

Further questions find 26% approving and 42% disapproving of the US and Israeli military action on Iran, with 34% approving and 26% disapproving of Australia’s response. Twenty-one per cent said they would support sending troops if requested by the US and Israel with 50% opposed; 32% supported and 35% opposed the government’s actual policy of sending weapons and equipment to countries like the United Arab Emirates; and 37% said they would support and 31% oppose offering refuge to displaced civilians.

Questions on international relationships find sentiment towards China softening considerably as compared with 2021: where 12% then felt Australia should get closer to China “in terms of diplomatic and trade relationships” compared with 51% for “become less close”, the respective numbers are now 21% and 26%. For the United States, “get closer” is down from 32% to 21% and “become less” close up from 14% to 34%. The Guardian’s report says the sample was 1067, and the field work dates were presumably last Wednesday to Monday.

The sometimes volatile weekly series from Roy Morgan is little changed this week, with Labor down half-a-point to 30%, the Coalition down half-a-point to 23%, One Nation up one to 22.5% and the Greens up half-a-point to 14%. Labor holds two-party preferred leads over the Coalition of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, in from 55.5-44.5 last week, and 54-46 on previous election preferences, in from 54.5-45.5 The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1587.

YouGov: Labor 27, One Nation 27, Coalition 20 (open thread)

The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll defies recent suggestions of a dip in One Nation support, finding the party equal with Labor for the first time.

The latest fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov records One Nation level with Labor in this series for the first time, with Labor dipping three points to 27% and One Nation matching them with a two-point gain. The Coalition is steady on 20% and the Greens up one to 14%. Labor holds two-party leads of 52-48 over the Coalition (in from 54-46) and 53-47 over One Nation (steady). Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 57%, and holds leads on preferred prime minister of 44-39 over Angus Taylor and 50-39 over Pauline Hanson. Angus Taylor is steady at 38% approval and up four on disapproval to 43%. The poll was conducted April 14 to 21 from a sample of 1501.

Michelle Grattan of The Conversation reports on a uComms poll conducted for the campaign of independent Farrer by-election candidate Michelle Milthorpe, which has Milthorpe and One Nation candidate David Farley all but tied on the primary vote, at 30.0% and 30.9% respectively, with 7.9% reported as undecided. However, Farley would presumably get the better of preferences from the Liberals on 16.1% and the Nationals on 7.1%. The remainder includes 3.8% for the Greens and 1.2% for Family First. The poll was conducted April 9 and 10 from a sample of 1116.

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