Category: Federal Politics 2025-2028

Three new federal polls produce a range of movements for the leading parties, partly but not entirely due to their different time scales (weekly for one poll, fortnightly for another, monthly for a third). The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov, which was an outlier last time in failing to show a drop for One Nation, comes good this time with a four-point drop to 26%, while Labor is down a point to 28%, the Coalition are up three to 20% and the Greens are down one to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred measures have Labor’s lead out from 54-46 to 56-44 against One Nation, and in from 54-46 to 53-47 against the Coalition. Pauline Hanson also takes a hit on preferred prime minister against Anthony Albanese, whose lead is out from 49-40 to 54-35. Albanese is up two on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is down three to 33% and up two to 49%, and Albanese’s lead over Taylor as preferred prime minister is out from 44-35 to 45-34. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1468.

The monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief has Labor down one to 26%, One Nation down one to 29%, the Coalition up three to 21% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are down one for positive to 25%, up two for neutral to 27% and and down one for negative to 48%; Angus Taylor is up two on positive to 24%, down one for neutral to 49% and down one for negative to 27%; and Pauline Hanson is down three on positive to 34%, steady on 23% neutral and up three on negative to 43%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 35%, Taylor up three to 22% and Hanson down two to 26%. Head-to-head ratings, which weren’t included last time, have Albanese and Taylor tied at 38-all, and Albanese leading Hanson 42-37. The poll was conducted July 3 to 8 from a sample of 2694.

As with the weekend’s Resolve Strategic poll, respondents were queried about their views on a range of statements advanced by Pauline Hanson during her National Press Club speech, with distinctly less favourable results – the most obvious explanation being that Resolve Strategic’s question specifically identified the views with Hanson whereas DemosAU did not. Resolve had 33% in favour and 39% opposed on the question of whether Australia “should be monocultural, rather than multicultural”, while an all but identically worded proposition from DemosAU has 25% in favour and 51% opposed. Hanson’s proposal for the ABC had 31% in favour and 40% opposed from Resolve, while DemosAU respectively has it at 21% and 54%. Where Resolve had 32% in favour and 36% against the contention that “it should be easier for companies to sack people”, DemosAU had 32% in favour and 43% opposed to the seemingly more gently worded “employers should have more flexibility to dismiss workers”.

After recording a nine-point slump for One Nation over its two previous polls, the weekly Roy Morgan series has them bouncing back five-and-a-half points to 28%, with Labor down half a point to 27.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 20% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation has duly narrowed, from 56-44 to 52.5-47.5, and its leads over the Coalition have narrowed from 55-45 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1612.

The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers is the latest to record a decline in support for One Nation, though the three-point drop on last month to 26% still leaves them ahead of the 24% recorded in the post-budget poll in May. The Coalition is up three to 23%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 28% and 12% respectively.

Movement on the three-way preferred prime minister question, which was posed for the first time last month, is yet more pronounced: Pauline Hanson slumps eight points to 25% with Anthony Albanese up four to 33% and Angus Taylor up five to 21%. Albanese’s combined very good plus good rating is up four points to 39%, his best since December, while poor and very poor are down two to 53%. Angus Taylor is respectively up three to 41% and up two to 34%. The question was posed of Pauline Hanson for the first time, who recorded a positive rating of 45%, but the negative rating is not provided in the report.

Responses were gauged to 13 propositions advanced by Hanson in her National Press Club speech, including some that polled favourably because they were unobjectionable. Of interest was that 39% agreed with Hanson that zero should be dropped and fossil fuels favoured over renewables in future, compared with 33% who were neutral and 27% who disagreed, a distinctly more climate-skeptical result than is usual from such questions. Hanson scored predictably well on immigration, but less so on cutting public broadcasting and withdrawing from the United Nations.

The poll had an unusually large sample of 2252, with around 1800 being the norm. I believe this is because its Victorian samples are being beefed up from now until the November state election to allow for monthly state poll results from samples of around 1000, as compared with the pollster’s normal practice of publishing bi-monthly results combining samples of around 500 from two national polls (as it will continue to do for New South Wales).

It’s been a particularly busy few days on the poll front, with Newspoll’s three-week cycle coinciding with YouGov’s fortnightly cycle and Essential Research’s monthly cycle and RedBridge Group thrown in for good measure. The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov parts company with the others in finding One Nation continuing to rise, at the expense of the hapless Coalition rather than Labor. Labor is up three to 29% and One Nation two to 30%, the latter a new record for the party from YouGov. The Coalition is down four to 17%, two points below its previous nadir around the time of the February leadership change, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor is down one to 36% and steady on 47%. Albanese’s leads on preferred prime minister are out from 43-38 to 44-35 against Taylor, and from 48-41 to 49-40 against Pauline Hanson. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1502.

The Guardian reports on the monthly Essential Research poll, with which the pollster’s data feature has been updated, though its full report with all its attitudinal questions will come later today. Inclusive of a steady uncommitted result of 5%, it has Labor up a point to 30%, One Nation down two to 26% and the Greens down one to 10%. The drop for One Nation might be thought especially significant coming from a monthly series, since the BludgerTrack trend measure records them gaining two-and-a-half points over this period.

The pollster’s 2PP+ continues to be unusually strong for the Coalition, who recover a 48-46 lead with the balance undecided, after Labor gained a 48-47 lead last month – my rough measure based on 2025 election flows has Labor ahead 51.3-48.7, out from 50.6-49.4. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 51%. Contrary to other recent polling, Angus Taylor is up three on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 37%.

The Guardian report relates negative responses to various One Nation positions: 15% in favour of privatising the ABC, 11% for shutting down SBS, 20% for ending multiculturalism, 18% for withdrawing from the United Nations, 18% for revising workplace laws in favour of employers, and 25% for stopping the renewables transition and focusing on fossil fuels. Only 26% were in favour of the party’s position on banning abortion after 20 weeks, but results were somewhat more conservative than when the question was last posed in November 2024: the 72% supporting abortion being legal in some or all cases was down seven points, and the 28% holding it should be illegal in some or all cases was up seven. Fifty per cent said they were concerned about One Nation being backed by Gina Rinehart, and 45% were concerned the party would “turn Australians against each other”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample that will have been a bit over 1000.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the biggest hit to One Nation of them all, down five-and-a-half points to 26%, with Labor up one to 28%, the Coalition up four to 21.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation on a measure based on respondent-allocated preferences is out from 51-49 to 53-47, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and unchanged at 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted last Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1639.

Two federal polls this evening show improved results for Labor, with The Australian reporting its primary vote at 33%, up three points on three weeks ago, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down one to an all-time low of 17%, and the Greens up two to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor takes a solid hit, down four on approval to 31% and up six on disapproval to 51%. The question was posed of Pauline Hanson for the first time, with results of 46% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s lead over preferred Taylor on prime minister is out from 44-38 to 47-36, while a three-way result has Albanese on 49%, Hanson on 31% and Taylor on 20%. When those favouring Taylor were then asked to choose between Albanese and Hanson, and the uncommitted excluded, Albanese records a lead of 57-43.

Respondents were asked which of three considerations loomed largest in their vote choice, with One Nation supporter being distinctive in breaking 38% for “they understand people like me”, compared with 13% or 14% for the other parties, and being less likely to choose “they have clear and realistic policies” (42% compared with 54% to 61%) and “the leader’s character and values” (19% compared with 23% to 31%). The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1235.

The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll is the first poll in a while that doesn’t have One Nation leading on the primary vote, although the gap between them and Labor is well inside the margin of error. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 30%, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens up two to 14%, their best result from this pollster for the term. Labor’s two-party leads are substantially increased: 56-44 over One Nation and 54-46 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, in both cases out from 51-49; and 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows, out from 52-48.

The three-way preferred prime minister question also records movement favourable to Labor, with Anthony Albanese up two to 33%, Pauline Hanson down two to 23% and Angus Taylor down three to 11%. Albanese’s favourable rating is up two to 31%, with neutral down two to 16% and unfavourable down one to 49%; Taylor is down four on favourable to 17%, up five on neutral to 28% and up one on unfavourable to 26%; and Hanson is down three on favourable to 37%, down three on neutral to 11% and up seven on unfavourable to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1006.

The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief has One Nation gaining two points to yet another new peak of 30%, with Labor up a point to 27%, the Coalition suffering a devastating five-point knock to fall to 18%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The pollster produces an estimated seats outcome from its polls based that makes use of data from its detailed quarterly MRP polling, and it has Labor on 71 to 81 seats, One Nation on 54 to 63, the Coalition on four to 11, the Greens on zero to four and others on four to eight. Respondents were also asked how they would vote with Tony Abbott leading the Coalition, with hardly little difference to the result.

Leader ratings record a deterioration for all three: Anthony Albanese is down one on positive to 26%, down one on neutral to 25% and up two on negative to 49%; Angus Taylor is down six to 22%, up five to 50% and up one to 28%; and Pauline Hanson is down two to 37%, down two to 23% and up four to 40%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese up a point to 35%, Taylor down four to 19% and Hanson up one to 28%.

Questions about the budget measures were again posed, recording a deterioration in support for all three: support for the negative gearing measures down two to 32% with opposition up two 31%; support for changes to capital gains tax discounts is up one to 29% with opposition up four to 33%; and support for the maximum 30% tax rate on family trusts is down three to 24% with opposition up seven to 41%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll also has One Nation smashing another series record with a two point gain to 31.5%, with Labor down one to 27%, the Coalition up half to 17.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 53-47 to 51-49, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54.5-45.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1575.

Two new federal polls, plus the detritus of a third:

• The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one to 28%, the Coalition up one to 21% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds 52-48 respondent-allocated two-party preferred leads over both the Coalition and One Nation, which are respectively unchanged and in from 53-47. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 35% and steady on 60% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down one to 37% and up four to 47%. Albanese holds a 48-41 lead over Pauline Hanson, out from 47-41. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to yesterday from a sample of 1492.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up two to 28%, One Nation steady on 29.5%, the Coalition down half a point to 17% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 14%. Labor leads the Coalition 54.5-45.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, where the previous poll had them leading 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54-46 using previous election flows. Labor leads One Nation 53-47 on a respondent-allocated two-party measure, in from 53.5-46.5.

• Nine Newspapers provides further results from the Resolve Strategic poll suggesting strong support for the various policies announced by Angus Taylor, including 42% in favour of linking immigration to completed house builds, with 18% opposed, and 42% in favour of scrapping the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes, with 17% opposed. Jim Chalmers has a 34% approval rating, steady on a month ago, with 39% disapproval, down one.

Also some non-poll related electorally relevant news:

• Sarah Ison of The Australian reported on June 8 that questions surrounded the eligibility of Western Australian One Nation Senator Tyron Whitten to sit in parliament. At issue is whether his shares in a family civil construction company that has a contract with a firm working on the Snowy Hydro 2.0 project falls foul of Section 44(v), which disqualifies those who hold “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth”. Matters for judgement identified by constitutional law expert Anne Twomey include whether the family firm qualifies for the exemption for “an incorporated company consisting of more than twenty‑five persons”; whether Snowy Hydro 2.0, which has a legal existence separate from the Commonwealth, counts as “the Public Service of the Commonwealth”; and, for the Senate’s judgement, whether Whitten had failed to properly disclose the matter.

• Two vacancies loom in Tasmanian Senate seats held by the Liberal Party, most imminently in the case of Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jonathan Duniam, who announced on Sunday he will leave politics once work on the Coalition’s immigration policy had been finalised. Wendy Askew also announced last week that she will not stand at the next election, and will thus retire when her term ends in mid-2028. The ABC reported Brad Stansfield, newspaper publisher, managing director of polling firm EMRS and former chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, will seek preselection, presumably suggesting he will be in the running to fill Duniam’s casual vacancy. Stansfield boasted support from Jeremy Rockliff, Peter Gutwein and Peta Credlin as well as Hodgman. Sue Bailey of The Mercury further reported former state Education Minister Sarah Courtney, who served in parliament from 2014 to 2022, was “also believed to be considering”.

• Yet another disturbance to the Senate’s Tasmanian contingent unfolded on May 14 when Tammy Tyrell joined Labor, increasing its representation in the chamber to 30 seats out of 76. Tyrell was elected for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2022, broke with the party in March 2024, and established her own Tammy Tyrell for Tasmania party in September 2024. Jack Quail of The Australian reports Tyrrell will sit with Labor’s Right faction, meaning she will have to overcome colleague Helen Polley to score a winnable spot on the Senate ticket at the 2028 election.

• I made a lengthy appearance with Tim Lester on the Seven Network’s The Issue podcast to discuss you-know-what, which I’m told was quite good.