Category: Federal Politics 2022-2025

YouGov’s second regular poll for the year (not counting last fortnight’s MRP poll) records substantial movement to minor parties and independents since the last such poll in mid-January, with Labor down four points to 28% and the Coalition is down two to 37%. Having almost nothing to do with this is the debut from Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of the Patriots, which we are told accounted for only 1% out of a total “others” share of 13%, up three points. The Greens are up two to 14% and One Nation is up one to 8%. The two-party preferred result, which now uses preference flows less favourable to Labor than those at the 2022 election, is unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

Despite the fall in their parties’ collective vote share, both leaders record improvements in their net approval ratings, with Anthony Albanese steady on 40% approval and down three on disapproval to 52%, and Peter Dutton up one to 44% and down three to 46%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 44-40 to 42-40. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1501. It is apparently the case that “YouGov will continue to publish weekly tracking polls leading up to the next election”.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll was quite a bit better for Labor than the Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy results, crediting them with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last week. Labor was up three-and-a-half on the primary vote to 31.5%, with the Coalition down three to 36.5%, the Greens up one to 13.5% and One Nation down half to 5%. This translates into a Labor lead of 53-47 using 2022 election preference flows, compared with 51-49 to the Coalition last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1666.

Also:

• The West Australian reports polling conducted for Australian Energy Producers by JWS Research has some eyebrow-raising results in three federal seats. The Liberals are credited with a crushing primary vote lead of 56% to 28% over teal independent Kate Chaney in Curtin, compared with a post-redistribution 41.4% to 29.8% based on the 2022 result. In the new seat of Bullwinkel, which has a notional Labor two-party margin of 3.0%, Labor’s vote is said to have crashed from 36% to 15%, putting them third behind the Liberals on 41% and the Nationals on 22%. Yet there is little sign of this implied swing of around 25% in Tangney, where the Liberal vote edges up from 40% to 41% and Labor is down only from 38% to 35%, suggesting Labor to be still competitive in a seat it holds on a 2.6% margin. The poll had a combined sample of 2529, and included further questions on “the Greens’ policy to ban new gas projects” and whether “the natural gas industry was important to WA’s economy”. UPDATE: The Australian further reports two-party leads for the Liberals of 65-35 in Curtin and 56-44 in Tangney, the latter being quite a bit more than I would have thought based on the primary votes.

• Two reports have emerged of unrelated seat polls conducted by uComms, Geoff Chambers of The Australian reporting that a poll conducted for Climate 200 credits teal independent Allegra Spender with a 57.2-42.8 lead over Liberal candidate Ro Knox in Wentworth, from primary votes of 32.6% for Spender, 35.0% for Knox, 14.7% for Labor and 10.8 for the Greens. The poll was conducted on February 12 from a sample of 1068. The report notes “a feeling in Coalition ranks that the seat, along with the northern Sydney teal electorates of Mackellar and Warringah, won’t be won back”, together with concerns about Nicolette Boele in Bradfield. The other uComms poll, conducted for the Australian Forest Products Association, credits Liberal candidate Andrew Constance with a 52.8-47.2 lead over Labor incumbent Fiona Phillips in Gilmore, with no primary votes provided. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 684.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a minister saying there is “not a f**king chance” of a budget being brought down on March 25, with the popular view within the government remaining that an April 12 election will be called immediately after the Western Australian state election on Saturday week.

Yesterday’s interest rates cut has put election timing speculation into sharper focus, but the most widely touted option all along has been April 12, the earliest date that avoids overlap with the campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8. Labor MPs cited by The Australian today were “unanimously against a March budget, given the deficits it would forecast”, which is to say they would favour the three week window from March 29 to April 12 over an election on the other side of Easter in May. The first of these dates is rated a “small possibility”, and would help Labor prosecute the case that a corner has been turned on interest rates, which would be complicated in the very likely event that rates are kept on hold at the Reserve Bank’s next meeting on April 1. However, Labor sources cited by David Crowe of Nine Newspapers “play down the idea of an election being called this weekend”, as March 29 would require. Counting against April 12 is its being the date of Passover, sensitivity towards Jewish concerns being a priority at the moment. No one seems especially discouraged that it would land in the middle of school holidays in Victoria and Queensland.

The latest on the polling front:

• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor steady on 30%, the Coalition down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up one to 9%, with a steady 4% undecided. The 2PP+ measure has both Labor and the Coalition on 48%, after the Coalition led 49-47 last time. Monthly leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese down two on approval after an unusually strong result last time to 43%, and up three on disapproval to 48%. Peter Dutton is down one on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 45%. The monthly “national mood” question likewise erases an anomalous improvement last time, with right direction down seven points to 31% and wrong track up five to 51%, both results being identical to the December survey. A quite of questions on “awareness of Labor’s achievements” records high awareness of $300 energy bill rebates (77% aware, 23% unaware) and TAFE and HECS debt cuts (66% and 34%), but relatively low awareness of consecutive budget surpluses (46% and 54%). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1146.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5 based on respondent-allocated preferences, and a narrowing from 51.5-48.5 to 51-49 going off 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 28% (down one), Coalition 39.5% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up one-and-a-half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1666.

• The Australian yesterday has a supplementary result from Monday’s Newspoll finding 25% of the view that inflation would be higher than it is now if Peter Dutton and the Coalition were in government, 24% lower and 31% about the same.

A big day for federal opinion polling, with at least the possibility of more to come:

• The regular Newspoll from The Australian finds the Coalition leading 51-49, unchanged on three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (undecided). Anthony Albanese is steady at 37% approval and up one on approval to 58%, while Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 41% and steady on 51%. No sign yet of a preferred prime minister result (UPDATE: Albanese’s lead widens 44-41 to 45-40). The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1244.

• YouGov has the first of what it promises will be regular multi-level regression and post-stratification polling, a formidable effort compiled from 40,689 interviews conducted between January 22 and February 12. This produces estimates for all 150 electorates based on their demography, which you can learn more about on the YouGov site. Its median projection is 73 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor, eight for independents and one each for the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. For all the talk of Victoria, it suggests Labor’s biggest headache is New South Wales, where it trails in Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Hunter, Macquarie, Paterson, Robertson, Shortland and Werriwa. A summary list names Labor’s other projected losses as Aston, Chisholm and McEwen in Victoria, Bullwinkel and Tangney in Western Australia, and Lyons in Tasmania, though there may be more to it than that because the full data set also finds the Liberals marginally favoured in Boothby in South Australia. With the caveat that MRP has a better record with standard two-party contests than with minor parties and independents, Labor is favoured in all three of the Greens-held seats in Brisbane (even historically conservative Ryan) and to recover Fowler from Dai Le, while the teal incumbents are reckoned to be “safe”. In terms of national voting intention, the Coalition leads 51.1-48.9 on two party preferred from primary votes of Labor 29.1%, Coalition 37.4%, Greens 12.7% and One Nation 9.1%. An excellent results display allows you to bring up each electorate’s results individually and download a full data set.

• The News Corp papers have the first instalment of a promised “tracking poll” series by RedBridge Group and Accent Research targeting a selected sample of 20 marginal seats, chosen to reflect a balance across states, city and country and Labor-held and Coalition-held. The poll finds the Coalition with a two party lead across the seats of 52-48, compared with a 51-49 lead for Labor across the seats in question in 2022. The primary votes are Labor 33%, Coalition 43% and Greens 12% – by my reckoning, the combined result in these seats in 2022 was Labor 33.9%, Coalition 38.3% and Greens 11.1%. As with the recent conventional RedBridge Group federal poll, Coalition voters were more firm (61% solid, 31% soft) than Labor voters (45% and 41%) in their voting intention. The poll was conducted February 4 to 11 from a sample of 1002. The series will proceed on a fortnightly basis until the election is called and a weekly basis thereafter.

And a big week on the electoral law front:

• The government’s campaign finance legislation passed in the Senate on Wednesday after it won Coalition support by increased the proposed cap on donations from $20,000 to $50,000 and reducing the proposed cut in the threshold on public disclosure of donations, currently at $16,900, to $5000 rather than $1000. Teal independents remain aggrieved that they will be limited to spending $800,000 on their individual campaigns, whereas the parties will be able to supplement their locally directed efforts with their nationally targeted advertising, and say they will seek to reverse the changes if they gain the balance of power at the next election.

• Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the Cormack Foundation, which manages about $125 million in Victorian Liberal Party assets, may have broken the rules in making a $500,000 donation to right-wing campaign group Advance Australia without the knowledge of the party. In common with Labor’s similar Services & Holdings entity, the Cormack Foundation is exempt from the state’s $5000 donations cap only if operated for the “sole” or “principal” benefit of the relevant party, and a similar provision applies in the legislation passed in federal parliament last week. Chip Le Grand of The Age reported in December that a group of unsuccessful independents were preparing a High Court challenge against the exemption in Victoria.

• The High Court this week rejected Clive Palmer’s attempt to have a law preventing deregistered parties from re-registering before another election is held declared unconstitutional. His United Australia Party voluntarily deregistered after the 2022 election, citing administrative reasons. The provision was intended to prevent newly deregistered parties having their names appropriate by newcomers, and did not envision an existing party behaving as Palmer’s has done, for which electoral law expect Graeme Orr says was likely motivated to avoid having to make financial disclosures. The ruling did not discourage Palmer from cranking up his customary pre-election advertising onslaught this week.

Two new federal polls:

• RedBridge Group has its first federal poll since November (not counting its MRP poll with Accent Research), which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred compared with a 50-50 result last time. On the primary vote, Labor is down three to 31%, the Coalition up two to 40% and the Greens steady on 11%. The poll also finds Coalition supporters are more firm in their voting intention (61% solid versus 34% soft) than Labor voters (51% solid and 39% soft). Attendant media coverage is making much of regional breakdowns showing a 9% swing against Labor in the outer suburbs, compared with 5% in the inner and middle suburbs, essential no change in provincial cities, and a 3% swing in Labor’s favour in rural areas, although the error margins on these individuals breakdowns are around 6%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1013.

• The regular weekly Roy Morgan poll likewise records the Coalition with a 51.5-48.5 lead on both the respondent-allocated and previous election flow measures of two-party preferred (which were respectively 50-50 and 50.5-49.5 in Labor’s favour last time). The primary votes are Labor 29% (down one), Coalition 40.5% (up two), Greens 11% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688.

This fortnight’s Essential Research poll has Labor steady at 30%, the Coalition down one to 36%, the Greens steady at 12%, One Nation up one to 8%, and undecided down one to 4%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has the Coalition up a point to 49% and Labor steady on 47%, with undecided steady at 4%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1150.

Also featured is the Essential poll was an occasional suite of questions on leadership attributes, finding Anthony Albanese scoring low on positive qualities and high on negative ones, though respondents are less likely to view him as not handling pressure well than changing his opinion or being out of touch, and not at all prone to seeing him as aggressive. Peter Dutton gets favourable scores on being decisive and handling pressure, somewhat unfavourable ones for the others, and interestingly manages to break even on aggression. Charts are included showing how the leaders’ ratings have tracked historically, showing drops across the board for Albanese between surveys in March 2023 and February 2024.

The poll finds 37% support for the Coalition’s proposed tax discounts for small businesses to spend on meals and entertainment with 31% opposed. Questions on diversity, equity and inclusion find 44% supporting and 26% opposing the proposition that “we need to proactively address the historical injustices that continue to have an impact today”, but 47% agreeing and only 14% disagreeing that “programs that elevate particular minority groups, such as targets and quotas, deliver worse outcomes”. Forty-three per cent felt the government was not doing enough to combat anti-Semitism, compared with 30% for enough and 9% for too much, and there was an exactly even split on whether majority or minority governments are preferable.

Also out this week is the second federal poll from DemosAU, with results similar to the first in November: an unchanged 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1238.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a tie on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred figure, after the Coalition led 52-48 last time. The primary votes are Labor 30% (up half), Coalition 38.5% (down two), Greens 11.5% (steady) and One Nation 5.5% (down half). The two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor leading 50.5-49.5, after trailing 51-49 last time, which I believe is Labor’s first two-party lead in a national poll since the Roy Morgan poll of November 18-24. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1694.