Category: Federal Politics 2022-2025

The Guardian has a report on the fortnightly Essential Research poll that doesn’t include its voting intention numbers, which we will get with the publication of the full report later today. It does include the pollster’s monthly personal ratings, which have Anthony Albanese at 40% approval (down three) and 50% disapproval (up four) and Peter Dutton unchanged at 42% and 41%. The poll also finds 44% support for Peter Dutton’s call for a pause to the arrival of Palestinians from Gaza with 30% opposed, with younger respondents having a notably more liberal view than older. Only 29% rated that Australia was on the right track, compared with 52% for the wrong track. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1129.

UPDATE: The primary vote intention numbers are Labor 29% (up one), Coalition 33% (down one), Greens 13% (down one) and One Nation 7% (steady), with 6% undecided. Labor now leads 48-46 on the 2PP+ measure, after a 47-47 result last fortnight.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, reversing the result from last time. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (down one), Coalition 39.5% (up one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 4% (steady). The two-party measure that uses preference flows from the 2022 election has it at 50-50, after Labor lead 51-49 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1701.

I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday on the Northern Territory election, and what it likely portends for looming Queensland (quite a bit) and federal (rather less) elections.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, after a 50-50 result last time, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up one), Coalition 38.5% (up half), Greens 13.5% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one). The pollster’s previous election preferences measure of two-party preferred has Labor’s lead unchanged at 51-49. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1698. Also of note on the polling front are further figures from the weekend’s Freshwater Strategy poll showing 50% support for a blanket ban on sports betting advertising, with 29% opposed. It also found 70% support for the actual government policy of a limit of two ads per hour up to 10pm with 16% opposed, the former figure presumably including many who feels it does not go far enough.

Federal preselection news:

• Labor’s national executive has taken over the party’s federal preselection process in Victoria at the behest of Anthony Albanese, invoking the disruption caused by the redistribution and its abolition of the Labor-held seat of Higgins. Among other things, this seems likely to ensure the Socialist Left-backed Basem Abdo succeeds the retiring Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, which had been the source of some discontent in local branches. There are also reports that the federal branch of the Liberal Party is preparing to take over the affairs of its New South Wales branch after the sacking of state director Richard Shields in the wake of the council elections fiasco.

• Both the Liberals and the Nationals have candidates in place for the new seat of Bullwinkel on Perth’s eastern fringe, with army veteran and former journalist Matt Moran winning a Liberal preselection vote on the weekend ahead of Holly Ludeman, veterinarian and activist against a ban on live sheep exports, and lawyer Jonathan Crabtree. Former state party leader Mia Davies has been confirmed as the Nationals candidate. The West Australian today reports that a poll of 800 respondents in the electorate showing the Nationals polling well clear of the Liberals, although the more remarkable fact of the poll is that it has Labor leading 52-48, suggesting next to no swing from 2022. The primary votes quoted are Labor 22%, Nationals 20%, Liberal 12%, Greens 10% and independents 10%, with 23% undecided.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Gavin Pearce. The two identified as front-runners are Belle Binder, a “young entrepreneur who has pioneered an innovative farm labour scheme”, and Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead, with speculation the latter will withdraw amid strong backing for Binder from senior party figures. The report notes Senator Anne Urquhart and state MP Anita Dow have been identified as potential Labor candidates, but that the seat will only be reckoned an attractive prospect for Labor if federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek “sides with local industries in imminent decisions over a mine tailings dam at Rosebery and salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour”.

• Thomas Kelsall of InDaily reports Zane Basic, factional conservative former staffer to federal MP Nicolle Flint and current staffer to Queensland MP Bert van Manen, has won Liberal preselection to take on independent Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo. Basic won a party ballot ahead of Adelaide councillor Henry Davis.

• The Greens have endorsed Remah Naji, social worker and organiser of Justice for Palestine, as its candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton>. It remains unclear if Labor member Graham Perrett will seek re-election or make way for state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell, which would resolve an issue faced by the state branch in meeting its affirmative action quota.

The latest monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review has the Coalition maintaining the 51-49 two-party lead it opened in the previous poll, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 41% (up one) and Greens 12% (down one). Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%, while Peter Dutton is up a point on each to 37% and 40%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister narrows from 45-39 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1061.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is notable in recording a four-point dip in Labor’s already soft primary vote 28%, although the dividend goes mostly to the Greens, up three to 14%, rather than the Coalition steady on 34%, with One Nation steady on 7% and a steady 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is back to having Labor and the Coalition tied at 47% apiece, with the balance undecided, with Labor steady and the Coalition up a point. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.

Some insight into the government’s precarious position is provided by a suite of questions on prospects for the coming year, finding 67% expect the cost of living situation to worsen with only 11% expecting it to improve, with broadly negative sentiment also recorded in relation to employment and wages. Questions on Indigenous issues find a 58-42 split in favour of the proposition that Indigenous disadvantage is a result of “the personal decisions they make” against the alternative of “systemic” explanations, and a 59-41 split against establishing a Makaratta commission to negotiate a treaty.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a 50-50 tie on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51.5-48.5 lead last time, from primary votes of Labor 29.5% (down one), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 14% (up two) and One Nation 5% (down half). The pollster’s alternative two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election has Labor ahead 51-49, in from 51.5-48.5 last week.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. Labor is down a point to 32%, the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 6%. Anthony Albanese is down a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Peter Dutton is is down one to 40% and up one to 50%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-39. The poll also finds 22% expect a majority Labor government after the next election, 33% minority Labor, 24% minority Coalition and 21% majority Coalition. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1266.

Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, showing Labor up a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 37%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation down one to 6%, suggesting a two-party preferred very close to 50-50. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up two to 34%, with poor and very poor down three to 51%, while Peter Dutton is respectively up two to 41% and down two to 38%. Dutton maintains a one-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 35-34 to 36-35. The breakdowns show roguish-looking movements on gender that cancel each other out, with Labor up five among men to 32% and down four among women to 25%, and the Coalition down four among men to 39% and up two among women to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Looming ahead are the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll on Tuesday and a big week in South Australia, where the Liberals will choose a new Opposition Leader tomorrow and a draft state redistribution will be published on Thursday.

Time for a new thread, but with not much to report – so the weekly Roy Morgan poll gets a rare guernsey. This week the pollster has Labor ahead 51.5-48.5 on both its respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures, respectively comparing with 50.5-49.5 and 51-49 last time. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 5.5% (down one). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1655.

Two items of preselection news:

• The Nationals have preselected Gunnedah mayor Jamie Chaffey to succeed Mark Coulton when he retires from his rural New South Wales seat of Parkes at the next election. Chaffey won a local party ballot on Saturday from a field of three.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports five nominees for Liberal National Party preselection for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of veteran member Warren Entsch: Alana McKenna, a “local aviation identity” who has Entsch’s endorsement; Sam Brayshaw, a geologist said to be supported by “far north Queensland conservative establishment figures Deirdre and Colin Ford”; local branch secretary Darcy Sanders; Jeremy Neal, a former Cairns councillor; and Margaret Milutinovic, who promotes herself as a “financial goddess”.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.