Category: Federal Politics 2022-2025

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 45 (open thread)

Essential Research spices up an uneventful set of voting intention numbers with a finding that nearly one in ten respondents choose the red pill.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll gives Labor its best result on voting intention in two months, their primary vote up two to 33%, the Coalition steady on 32%, the Greens up one to 14% and One Nation down two to 6%, with the undecided component down one to 5%. Their lead on the 2PP+ measure is out from 49-45 to 50-45. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1125.

Also featured are questions on COVID-19, including a finding that 52% consider Australia well prepared for future pandemics compared with 38% for not well prepared, and an unexpected foray on the “nature of reality”, which finds precisely equal proportions of Coalition, Labor and Greens voters alert to the fact that we are “living in a simulation”. The 301 Victorian respondents were asked to rate Daniel Andrews’ contribution to Victoria, with 37% opting for very good or quite good compared with 40% for very poor or quite poor.

Thursday miscellany: Greens and Liberal Senate vacancies, etc. (open thread)

Victorian Greens Senator Janet Rice to call it a day, Warren Mundine withdraws from contention to replace Marise Payne, and Josh Frydenberg confirms he will sit out the next election.

Apart from a few Indigenous Voice snippets, which I’m holding back for a dedicated post, the only polling action this week has been the regular Roy Morgan result, which has Labor leading 54-46, unchanged on last week, from primary votes of Labor 32.5% (up half), Coalition 35% (up half) and Greens 14% (down one-and-a-half). On the preselection front, there is the following to relate:

• Victorian Greens Senator Janet Rice has announced she will retire from parliament in the first half of next year. James Massola of The Age reports her successor will be chosen by a vote of 2000 to 3000 party members in November. The front-runner is Steph Hodgins-May, who has run three times for the party in Macnamara (known as Melbourne Ports up to 2016) and came within an ace of winning the seat in 2022. Other potential nominees are Monash councillor Josh Fergeus, academic and unionist Apsara Sabaratnam and lawyer Sarah Jefford.

• With Warren Mundine’s withdrawal last week from the preselection race to fill Marise Payne’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy, the position is now thought likely to go to Andrew Constance, former state government minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore at last year’s federal election. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports he may face competition from one of a number of factional conservatives: “Mina Zaki, an Afghanistan-born, anti-Taliban activist and cyber expert at consulting firm KPMG; barrister Ishita Sethi; lawyer Pallavi Sinha; Monica Tudehope, who has previously worked as Dominic Perrottet’s policy director; and former NSW Liberal MP Lou Amato”. Mundine has opted to remain in the business sector, but the Sydney Morning Herald further noted he had “caused angst” among hitherto supportive conservatives by defying the no campaign line on the desirability of a treaty or a changed date for Australia Day. The Sydney Morning Herald earlier reported the preselection was not likely to be determined until November.

• Josh Frydenberg announced last week he will not seek to win Kooyong back from teal independent Monique Ryan at the next election. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian says this has left Liberals questioning who might take over as leader if circumstances demand it after the next election, with Andrew Hastie “described by several as the party’s best hope, despite his relative inexperience”. Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex, has been mentioned as a likely contender for the Liberal preselection in Frydenberg’s absence, while a report in The Age put forward a number of familiar names as potential starters: “Lucas Moon, an anti-pokies campaigner at Hawthorn RSL, Melbourne councillor Roshena Campbell, former candidate Georgina Downer, Caroline Elliot, or past Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chair Karyn Sobels”.

• Alexi Diemetriadi of The Australian reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has resigned from the Liberal state executive ahead of a run for Liberal preselection in Bennelong, and that Shoalhaven councillor and former deputy mayor Paul Ell is “understood” to be considering running in Gilmore, where he stood aside in favour of Andrew Constance before the last election.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks round-up of Queensland politics relates that long-serving Labor members Graham Perrett and Shayne Neumann are under pressure to make way for female candidates in their seats of Moreton and Blair, with former state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell favoured by the Left in Moreton and state Ipswich MP Jennifer Howard “weighing up her options for a tilt at Blair”.

• Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a new post at The Conversation on developments in the campaign for the October 14 election in New Zealand.

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

Strong voting intention numbers for Labor and sagging personal results for Peter Dutton, but still no bottom in sight for the Indigenous Voice.

The latest Newspoll courtesy of The Australian maintains the general pattern of late in finding Labor maintaining strong leads on voting intention while Indigeous Voice support continues to collapse. The two-party result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, out from 53-47 last time, from primary votes of Labor 36% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 11% (down two) and One Nation 6% (down one).

The leadership ratings are highlighted by a slump for Peter Dutton, who is down six on approval to 32% and up three on disapproval to 52%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 47% and down three to 44%. Preferred prime minister is nonetheless little changed, with Albanese’s lead out from 50-31 to 50-30.

The good news for the government ends on the question of the Indigenous Voice, on which yes is down two to 36% and no is up three to 56%. Pyxis Polling’s promptly published methodology statement tells us the poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1239.

UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy): Less happy news for Labor on the voting intention front a Freshwater Strategy poll in the Financial Review, the third federal poll from this outfit this term. The previous poll in May gave Labor a lead of 52-48 when the general trend was around 55-45, and this one has it at 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 37% (steady) and Greens 13% (up one). Anthony Albanese has net negative personal ratings with 38% favourable (down four) and 41% unfavourable (up four), while Peter Dutton is at 30% (steady) and 40% (down two). Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 51-33 to 46-37. A question on the Indigenous Voice finds yes on 33% and no on 50%. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1003.

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45 (open thread)

Unsurprising results on federal voting intention and the Indigenous Voice from Essential Research, while RedBridge finds the Coalition making no headway in Victoria.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds both major parties unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 32%, with the Greens down two to 13%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 45% – the narrowest result this term – with undecided likewise at 6%. A result on the Indigenous Voice maintains the remorseless trend, with no up three to 51% (hard no up one to 42%, soft no up one to 8%) and and yes down one to 41% (hard yes down two to 28%, soft yes steady at 12%).

Regarding the government’s latest package of workplace laws, the poll finds 79% are in favour of criminalising wage theft, with only 6% opposed; 66% support “closing loopholes so that employers can’t use labour hire workers to undercut full time workers”, with 12% opposed; and 54% support “ensure that gig workers who work through digital platforms have minimum rights and entitlements”, with 15% opposed. Forty-nine per cent favoured “businesses maximising profits for shareholders” as the cause of rising living costs over 32% for the alternative cause of wage and salary increases for workers, and 42% felt workplace power tilted too much in favour of employers compared with 12% for workers. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1135.

Also doing the rounds is a Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group that shows primary vote shares much as they were at the November election, with Labor on 37%, the Coalition on 34% and the Greens on 13% (36.7%, 34.5% and 11.5% respectively at the election). However, Labor is credited with a wider two-party preferred lead of 56.5-43.5, compared with 55.0-45.0 at the election. The poll was conducted August 31 to September 14 from a substantial sample of 3001, allowing for credible breakdowns by gender, age, region, education, income and home ownership in the pollster’s report.

Weekend miscellany: Morgan poll, WA Voice poll, Queensland LNP Senate latest (open thread)

Roy Morgan finds Labor’s lead narrowing fractionally; a formerly strong poll series for the Indigenous Voice in WA goes south; and Gerard Rennick finds no joy in a bid to overturn his Senate preselection defeat.

Essential Research’s fortnightly poll should be along in the small hours of Tuesday – anything else that comes along on the poll front this week (not counting the regular weekly Roy Morgan) will be news to me when it happens. Here’s what I have for the time being:

• Roy Morgan’s weekly result has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). Since discovering Morgan’s results archive, I’ve been including its results in the BludgerTrack poll data page, but not in the poll aggregate itself.

• The West Australian had an Indigenous Voice poll from Painted Dog Research on Wednesday showing no leading in the state 61-39, after yes led 58-42 in June. The poll was conducted at some point earlier this month from a sample of 1285.

• The Australian reports Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has sought legal advice after a Liberal National Party committee knocked back his challenge to his 131-128 preselection defeat in July at the hands of party treasurer Stuart Fraser. While it was acknowledged that Rennick backer Peter Dutton should have been allowed to cast a proxy vote, as Fraser supporters David Littleproud and Adrian Schrinner had been, and that two people allowed to vote were ineligible, it was determined that the anomalies would not have affected the result, and that Rennick missed his opportunity to raise objections at the meeting. Of the ineligible voters, The Australian reports that “one apparently voted for Rennick and the other says they didn’t vote in the deciding round”.

• The full results from a RedBridge Group poll showing state Labor trailing 55-45 in Queensland, which was covered here last week, can be viewed here.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece on the October 14 election in New Zealand for The Conversation, where all indications are that Labour is facing defeat after two terms in government.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 34, Greens 12 (open thread)

Labor still well ahead on voting intention, but Resolve Strategic records prime ministerial approval in net negative territory and an ongoing decline in support for an Indigenous Voice.

Courtesy of the Age/Herald, the latest monthly federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic have with Labor down a point to 36%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 5%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but I make it to be 55-45 to Labor based on 2022 election preferences compared with about 55.5-44.5 last time.

As with last week’s Newspoll, the poll gives Anthony Albanese his first net negative personal rating as prime minister, with approval down four to 40% and disapproval up five to 47%. Peter Dutton is up four to 35% and down one to 44%, with Albanese retaining a 43-28 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 46-25.

The worst news for the government comes once again from the Indigenous Voice, with a forced response question now putting no ahead 57-43, out from 54-46 a month ago. A question allowing for an uncommitted response has no leading 49% to 35%. Combining this month’s results with last month’s to get reasonable sub-samples, no leads 56-44 in New South Wales, 51-49 in Victoria, 61-39 in Queensland and Western Australia and 59-41 in South Australia, with yes leading only in Tasmania by 56-44 off a particularly small sample.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1604.

Weekend miscellany: Voice and Queensland polls, Liberal Senate preselections (open thread)

Bad news for the Indigenous Voice and Queensland Labor from RedBridge Group, and three doses of Liberal Senate preselection news, including Marise Payne’s looming casual vacancy.

We should be due for the monthly Resolve Strategic poll next week, followed shortly by a New South Wales state result, and there’s no telling when something might pop up on the Indigenous Voice front. For the time being, there is the following news to relate:

• Two reports on RedBridge Group polls in the News Corp papers today, one showing the Indigenous Voice headed for a 61-39 defeat nationally after the exclusion of 15% persistently undecided, the other putting the LNP ahead 55-45 on state voting intention in Queensland. Primary votes in the latter case were LNP 41%, Labor 26% and Greens 14% (UPDATE: Further detail from the ABC). The former poll was conducted at some point following Anthony Albanese’s announcement of the October 14 date the Thursday before last, the latter was conducted August 26 to September 6 from a sample of 2012.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator Marise Payne has announced she will retire from parliament on September 30. Two names are dominating speculation about the vacancy: Nyunggai Warren Mundine, presently enjoying an elevated profile as a public face of the Indigenous Voice no campaign, and Andrew Constance, former state government minister and narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore at the May 2022 election. Liberal sources said Mundine would enjoy strong support from conservatives and Alex Hawke’s centre right, and would “even peel off moderate voices”. The Australian further reports Catholic Schools NSW chief executive Dallas McInerney could again be in a preselection mix, although some doubted he was “a realistic candidate, particularly given his affiliation to the ‘imploded’ Perrottet/Tudehope right faction”. Further possibilities named by the Sydney Morning Herald are “former RSL head James Brown and Jess Collins”.

• Liberal sources cited by Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian say it is now considered unlikely that Scott Morrison will vacate his seat of Cook before the next election. Cook is a notable exclusion from the list of seats where the New South Wales Liberals are proceeding to preselection, together with Mackellar, where it is speculated that the way is being left open for an attempted comeback by Jason Falinski. An imminent preselection would present an obstacle to Falinksi given his present role as state party president.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley and Hobart alderman Simon Behrakis will seek preselection for the two winnable positions on the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. This involves challenging incumbents Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, though Behrakis “is understood to be content with the No. 3 spot, should party preselectors prefer to favour the two incumbents”. Both prospective challengers are conservatives, but Behrakis is associated with Senator Jonathan Duniam and Blomeley with rival powerbroker Eric Abetz. The issue will be decided by the party’s 67-member preselection committee on November 25.

• Shane Wright of the Age/Herald made the case last week for an enlarged parliament, a subject that appears likely to be addressed when the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters completes its two-stage inquiry into the 2022 election. A motion carried at Labor’s recent national conference calling for the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory to go from two Senators to six prompted opposition Senate leader Simon Birmingham to call for the government to rule out changes to the parliament or electoral system before the next election.

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)

Three new federal voting intention results together with Newspoll produce Labor leads of around 53-47 to 54-46.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll find both parties down on the primary vote, Labor by two points to 31% and the Coalition down one to 32%, with the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up two to 7% and undecided steady at 6%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is unchanged at 51% to 43%, with the remaining 6% undecided. The poll also features monthly leadership ratings which give Anthony Albanese his weakest numbers since the election, down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 43%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 43%.

The poll records the no lead on the Indigenous Voice out from 47-43 to 48-42, which is at least a slower rate of decline for yes than other polls of late. Yes includes 30% for hard yes and 12% for soft, with no respectively at 41% and 7%. Small-sample state breakdowns have yes leading 45-44 in New South Wales, and trailing 44-43 in Victoria, 58-35 in Queensland, 58-34 in Western Australia and 45-37 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151.

Two further sets of voting intention were released yesterday, one being the weekly Roy Morgan, which has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, in from 53.5-46.5 last week. Labor must have done quite a bit better on respondent-allocated preferences than last week, as they are down one-and-a-half on the primary vote 33.5% with the Coalition up two-and-a-half to 37.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

The other is from RedBridge Group, which had Labor leading 54.1-45.9 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. There is no indication of sample size of field work period that I’m aware, but an accompanying graphic offers breakdowns by gender, age, AEC location category, education, income and language (English or non-English). (UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday from a sample of 1001.)

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