Advertiser poll: 51-49 to Labor in SA

The Adelaide Advertiser has published a small-sample (365) poll of state voting intention which gives Labor a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 39 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for Liberal after distribution of informal and undecided. The paper’s previous state poll in February had 476 respondents, and showed Labor leading 57-43. Respondents were also asked how the current leaders compare with Alexander Downer, which takes the idea of his entry into state politics a little more seriously than I would have. The Advertiser blotted its polling copybook with this dubious effort in early August, but its long-term record isn’t so bad (although it usually uses larger samples). The polling is conducted in-house, I believe by its classified advertising staff.

Advertiser poll: Maywald on 11 per cent in Chaffey

The Adelaide Advertiser has published a poll showing Nationals member Karlene Maywald has suffered a disastrous collapse in support in her Riverland electorate of Chaffey. Taken from a sample of 460 voters, it shows Maywald on just 11 per cent after distribution of informal and undecided, compared with 53.2 per cent at the 2006 election. Maywald holds the cabinet posts of River Murray and Water Security under a highly unusual arrangement which began when Labor was in a minority government position during its first term. The poll puts the Liberal vote at 51 per cent compared with 28.2 per cent at the election, with Labor up from 9.8 per cent to 19 per cent. Fifty-seven per cent think Maywald “hamstrung” by her cabinet position against 34 per cent who think she “represents the best interest of the electorate”, and 50 per cent believe the state’s National Party (such as it is) should merge with the Liberals.

This thread may be used for general discussion of South Australian state political matters.

UPDATE: Matt Sykes, David Walsh and Adam Carr in comments makes the pertinent point that respondents appear to have been asked only which party they would vote for, which can’t have done Maywald any favours. Carr goes so far as to say that “a poll that didn’t put her name in the question is a fraud, and knowing the Advertiser probably a deliberate one”.

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in SA

State Newspoll bonanza, episode five. All this and two by-elections tomorrow. Has there ever been a greater week in all of history? Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead in South Australia increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 in the first quarter. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 41 per cent, while the Liberal and Nationals are down one point to 36 per cent. Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith can at least point to an encouraging 47 per cent approval rating, although he trails Mike Rann as preferred premier 54 per cent to 27 per cent.

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in SA

The latest quarterly Newspoll survey of South Australian state voting intention has Labor’s lead at 53-47, its lowest in three years. This compares with 56.8-43.2 at Mike Rann’s landslide re-election in March 2006. Labor’s primary vote lead is 41 per cent to 37 per cent: on both measures the two parties have exchanged 1 per cent since the survey from the previous quarter. Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith, who I haven’t been paying much attention to since he took over the leadership from Iain Evans early last year, has an encouraging satisfaction rating of 45 per cent against 25 per cent dissatisfied. However, Mike Rann’s satisfaction rating is up from 51 per cent to 53 per cent, and his preferred premier lead has widened from 50-25 to 54-24.