Canadian election results live!

Live commentary on results from the Canadian election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Wednesday 10:16am Back to Brexit, and the government lost a crucial vote on Tuesday that means it is unable to guillotine the Brexit bill through the Commons by Thursday.  The second reading of the Brexit bill passed by 329 votes to 299, with 19 Labour and most independents voting with the Conservatives.  However, the guillotine motion failed by 322 to 308, along similar splits as Saturday’s Letwin amendment.   In both cases, opposition from the ten DUP MPs was critical in swinging these two votes against the government.

A long delay to Brexit is now very likely.  Jeremy Corbyn has said Labour will agree to an election once such a delay is in place.  Polls currently give the Conservatives a large lead.

Wednesday 9:56am The final seat result was as below.  The final popular votes were 34.4% Conservatives, 33.1% Liberals, 15.9% NDP, 7.7% Quebec Bloc and 6.5% Greens.  Turnout was 66.0% of eligible voters (down 2.8%).

6:23pm The Liberals lead in the last two undecided seats, and are likely to win 157 of the 338 seats, losing just one net seat in Ontario.  The Conservatives have 121, the Quebec Bloc 32, the NDP 24, the Greens three and one independent.

5:57pm So Canada is likely headed for a Liberal government supported by the more left-wing NDP.

5:55pm Antony Green has an overall summary of vote and seat changes since the 2015 election.  Currently Liberals and NDP have 180 seats combined, easily exceeding the requirement for a majority (170 seats) (post modified).

4:50pm Assuming current figures are near final, here’s how they compare with the CBC Poll Tracker (in brackets)

Libs 156 seats, 33.0% (137, 32.0%)

Con 122, 34.5% (124, 31.6%)

Quebec Bloc 32, 7.9% (39, 7.0%)

NDP 24, 15.9% (35, 18.4%)

Green 3, 6.4% (1, 7.5%)

So the Conservatives exceeded their polling in popular vote terms, beating the Liberals by 1.5% instead of losing by 0.4%.  But they lost the seat count by 34 instead of 13.  Far too many votes wasted in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while the Liberals won Ontario easily.  And probably some tactical voting.

3:28pm It greatly helps to be regionally concentrated if you’re a minor party in a single-member system.  The Quebec Bloc currently have 32 seats on 8.1%, the Greens just three seats on 6.3%.  The Bloc won 33.0% in Quebec, the only province they contested.

3:14pm Not much change in the results.  156 Liberal leads, 121 Conservative, 32 Quebec Bloc, 25 NDP, three Greens, one independent.  Conservatives lead Liberals by 1.3% on popular votes; could also be some tactical voting by left-wing supporters.  If these results hold, Liberals plus NDP will have a majority (170+ seats).  I hope the NDP will push the Liberals to electoral reform.

2:25pm I’m going for a walk on a (rare) sunny day in Melbourne.  See you in 30 minutes.

2:24pm The Conservatives currently have a 0.6% lead over the Liberals in popular votes despite trailing by 35 in seats leading.  It’s possible that there are big vote sinks for the Liberals in the cities still to be counted, or that the Conservative vote was too inefficiently distributed (see Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan).

2:14pm Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, voted for a right-wing government at the June 2018 provincial election, but the Liberals are currently leading in 77 of the 121 seats from that province.  Another example of state elections not correlating strongly with federal results.

2:00pm Maxime Bernier broke away from the Conservatives to form the far-right People’s Party during the last term.  CBC says he’s lost his seat.

1:53pm 152 Liberals, 118 Conservatives, 35 Quebec Bloc, 24 NDP, three Greens seat leads.  Called elected are 82 Liberals, 75 Conservatives, 18 Bloc, three NDP, one Green

1:31pm A big problem for the Conservatives is massive vote wastage in Alberta.  They currently have 72% of the vote there, but there are only 34 seats in that province.

1:22pm 140 Liberals, 107 Conservatives, 30 Bloc, 20 NDP, one Green seat leads.  22 losses for the Liberals, enough to cost them their majority.

1:11pm CBC News calls a Liberal government, probably a minority but we’ll see!

1:09pm 122 Liberals, 95 Conservatives, 21 Bloc, ten NDP, two Greens.  Liberals shown losing 16 seats, enough to cost them their majority (had 184 of 338 in 2015)

1:00pm 93 Liberals, 69 Conservatives, 18 Bloc, nine NDP, one Green

12:53pm 71 Liberals, 44 Conservatives, 12 Bloc, eight NDP, one Green leads

12:51pm 58 Liberals, 40 Conservatives, 12 Quebec Bloc, eight NDP, one Green seat leads.

12:46pm 48 Liberals, 29 Conservatives, eight Quebec Bloc, six NDP and one Green seat leads.

12:03pm Will have lunch now, so I’m back in time for the 12:30pm deluge!

12:02pm In Atlantic Canada, the CBC Poll Tracker had voting intentions of 37.1% Liberals, 26.8% Conservatives, 20.0% NDP and 12.1% Greens.  Results so far are 41.3% Liberals, 29.7% Conservatives, 16.7% NDP and 10.1% Greens.

11:57am One seat in Quebec closed at 10:30am, and that puts the Quebec Bloc on the board (very termporarily).  Seat leads are 26 Liberals, five Conservatives, one NDP and one Green.  Called seats are 17 Liberals, three Conservatives, one NDP

11:45am Greens are on the tally board, leading in one seat.  25 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP, one Green.  In 2015, all Atlantic Canada seats went Liberal.

11:35am 24 Liberals, seven Conservative, one NDP leads.  Ten Liberals, two Conservatives, one NDP called elected.

11:27am Antony Green tweets that these provinces are showing a 12% swing from Liberal to Conservative, but the Liberal vote was huge in 2015, and it may not carry to the rest of the country.

11:22am 24 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP seat lead, including eight Liberals called elected

11:09am 22 Liberals, six Conservatives, one NDP seat lead, including five Liberals called as elected.

11:03am Now 16 Liberals, nine Conservative and one NDP seat lead.  Polls in most of Canada do not close until 12:30pm, with British Columbia (42 of 338 seats) closing at 1pm.

10:50am Welcome to a live blog of the Canadian election results by Adrian Beaumont.  The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation has up-to-date figures.  Polls closed at 10:30am AEDT in four eastern provinces (32 of 338 seats), and the Liberals have leads in 12 seats, to two for the Conservatives, and one NDP.  These eastern provinces are pro-Liberal compared to Canada overall.

In the latest on Brexit, Commons Speaker John Bercow did not allow the government to bring back its meaningful vote motion after it had been amended on Saturday.  The government will now attempt to ram the Brexit legislation through the Commons by Thursday, but even if it succeeds, and the legislation is not unacceptably amended, the House of Lords is a big problem.

The Lords is far more pro-Remain than the Commons, and does not like to be rushed.  As the Letwin amendment states that approval of the deal is delayed until all legislation passes parliament, it is likely that the government will need to accept at least a short Brexit extension.

Brexit, Canada preview and elsewhere

The Letwin amendment delays approval of a deal Brexit, as Boris Johnson sends three letters to the EU. Also: minority government likely in Monday’s Canadian election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

On October 17, Boris Johnson agreed a Brexit deal with the European Union. On October 19, the Letwin amendment passed the Commons by 322 votes to 306. All current Conservatives voted against this amendment, as did six Labour MPs. But the ten Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MPs voted in favour, as did many of the expelled Conservatives.

The Letwin amendment withholds approval for the deal until legislation to enact Brexit has passed parliament. If not for the amendment, the deal would likely have passed, as some who voted for the amendment indicated they would support the deal itself; they only voted for Letwin to ensure a no-deal Brexit on October 31 did not occur.

As approval of the deal was delayed, Johnson was required to request a Brexit extension. He sent three letters: an unsigned copy of the letter required by the Benn Act, an explanatory letter from the UK’s EU ambassador and a signed letter from Johnson explaining why he does not want an extension. I do not know what the EU, lawyers and courts will make of these contradictory letters.

No current Conservative MP has spoken against the deal. Unlike Theresa May’s deal, which applied a backstop to the whole UK, Johnson’s deal only applies to Northern Ireland, with the rest of the UK free to change trading arrangements. As commentator Stephen Bush wrote, this freedom appealed to hard Leavers far more than May’s deal.

Johnson reverted to the EU’s original offer, which May had rejected owing to her need for the DUP to form a government. Johnson wants an election, so he doesn’t care about the DUP causing trouble, and was happy to shaft them.

Whether legislation passes parliament, is rejected or unacceptably amended, an election is likely coming soon, as Jeremy Corbyn says he will support an election once a long extension is granted. If the deal is enacted, a transition period until December 2020 will mean no economic consequences until then. Polls suggest a favourable reaction to the Brexit deal has further boosted the Conservatives.

Labour’s best chance to win the next election is to attack the Brexit deal as a sell-out to the right. But one explanation for Labour’s surge before the June 2017 election was that inflation-adjusted wages were down 0.5% in the year to May 2017; they are up 2.0% in the year to August 2019.

Minority government likely in Monday’s Canadian election

The Canadian election will be held Monday, with polls closing Tuesday Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT). Canada uses first-past-the-post. According to the CBC Poll Tracker, voting intentions are 31.7% Liberals (centre-left), 31.4% Conservatives, 18.2% NDP (left-wing), 8.2% Greens and 7.0% Quebec Bloc (left-wing, separatist). Seat expectations are 139 of 338 Liberals, 121 Conservatives, 40 Bloc, 35 NDP and two Greens.

If, as is likely, no party wins a majority (170 seats), the party with the most seats could form a minority government. If the Conservatives won the most seats, they could be ousted by an agreement between the Liberals and other left-wing parties. However, this did not occur after either the 2006 or 2008 elections. Perhaps reform of the electoral system could be a bargain for support.

Canada uses staggered polling times, so that most polls close at the same time. However, the four eastern provinces’ polls close by 10:30am Tuesday AEDT, but they account for just 32 of the 338 seats. Most polls close at 12:30pm AEDT, with polls in British Columbia (42 seats) closing at 1pm. We should have a rough idea of the result by 1:30pm. Canadian media list seats as either “leading” (a candidate leads in the vote count) or “elected” (called for a candidate).

Election updates: Portugal and Argentina

  • With the four overseas Portuguese seats declared for the October 6 election, the Socialists won 108 of 230 seats (up 22) and the conservatives 84 (down 23). All other parties’ seats are as in my previous Portugal
  • There will be an October 27 Argentine presidential election. A candidate needs at least 45% to win without a runoff. In 2015, conservative Mauricio Macri won, ending 12 years of left-wing presidencies. Polls give left-wing candidate Alberto Fernández over 50% and about a 20-point lead over Macri.

Brexit, Israeli election results and upcoming elections

Latest Brexit developments, stalemate in Israel and previews of elections in Austria, Portugal, Poland and Canada. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Boris Johnson said he wants a deal with the European Union, but has also said that if there is not a deal, he will ignore parliament’s legislation, and break free of the EU like “the Incredible Hulk”. Courts in Northern Ireland and England upheld parliament’s prorogation, but a Scottish court rejected it. The Supreme Court is expected to rule by next week. Polls in the last week gave the Conservatives nine-point or better leads, except for ComRes (just a one-point Conservative lead).

The key question is whether Johnson is serious about coming to a feasible deal with the EU, or is he pretending so he can blame the EU and parliament once talks collapse? A feasible deal would be attacked by Nigel Farage and hard Leave Conservative MPs, and be unlikely to pass parliament, which three times easily rejected Theresa May’s deal.

The remainder of this article will be a recap of the Israeli election, then previews of elections in Austria (September 29), Portugal (October 6), Poland (October 13) and Canada (October 21). Except for Canada, all these countries use proportional representation.

Neither side wins Israeli election 

The 120 Knesset members were elected by proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. At the September 17 election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud won 31 seats, one behind the left-leaning Blue & White. With potential allies, Netanyahu had 55 seats, to 56 for the opposition.

Yisrael Beiteinu (YB), with nine seats, is the kingmaker. Netanyahu failed to form a government after the April 2019 election because YB advocated introducing conscription for the ultra-Orthodox, which religious parties opposed. YB’s leader, Avigdor Lieberman, said prior to the election that he would only join a Likud and Blue & White government. Neither the left nor the right can claim victory in this election.

Austria (September 29) 

Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold. At the October 2017 election, the conservative ÖVP and far-right FPÖ formed government, having won a clear majority of seats. In May, this government collapsed after the FPÖ leader was accused of collusion with a Russian oligarch, and new elections were scheduled.

Polls have the ÖVP leading with 35.5%, followed by the centre-left SPÖ at 21.6%, the FPÖ at 19.8%, the Greens at 10.9% and the liberal NEOS at 8.5%. The ÖVP would prefer to govern with NEOS, but it is unlikely that these parties will have enough seats. The alternatives are another ÖVP/FPÖ government, or a grand coalition, which had governed prior to the 2017 election.

Portugal (October 6)

Portugal uses proportional representation at the regional level; bigger parties win a greater share of seats than their national votes imply. After the October 2015 election, the Socialists formed a minority government supported by the Left Bloc, Communists and Greens.

There has been a trend towards right-wing and far-right parties internationally, but Portugal is the exception. The Socialists have 39.6% in the polls, the combined vote for conservative parties is just 24.5% and other left-wing parties have a combined 24.1%. The only question, given the bonus for big parties, is whether the Socialists win a majority in their own right.

Poland (October 13)

Poland uses proportional representation in multi-member constituencies with a 5% national threshold for single parties and 8% for coalitions. At the October 2015 election, the Law and Justice (PiS) party won a majority on just 37.6%, as the centre-left coalition fell below the 8% threshold and was wiped out. While socially conservative and anti-immigrant, PiS is economically left-wing.

Polls for this election give PiS 45% of the vote, followed by a coalition of right and left-wing parties on 27% and a centre-left coalition on 13%. It is likely that PiS will win another majority, but the centre-left should return to parliament.

Canada (October 21)

Canada uses first-past-the-post. At the May 2011 election, the Conservatives won a majority on just 39.6% as left-wing parties split virtually all the remaining vote. Prior to the October 2015 election, which the centre-left Liberals won with a majority, current PM Justin Trudeau promised to reform the electoral system, but disappointingly he wimped out.

I will use CBC analyst Éric Grenier’s Poll Tracker. This currently gives the Conservatives 34.4%, the Liberals 34.1%, the left-wing NDP 13.8%, the Greens 9.5% and the Quebec Bloc 4.4%. Although the two major parties are tied in vote share, the Liberals are expected to win 167 of the 338 seats, the Conservatives 139, NDP 16, Quebec Bloc 12 and Greens four.

Canadian election thread

Stephen Harper’s three-term Conservative government faces defeat in today’s Canadian election, if the polls are accurate – although in Canada, that’s often not the case.

Canada’s national election takes place today, and it appears Stephen Harper’s Conservative government has the odds stacked against it as it seeks a fourth term in the face of a resurgent Liberal Party. Polls will close progressively from the east of the country to the west between 10am and 1pm Sydney and Melbourne time. Bowing to modern realities, Canada has repealed a law that banned reporting of results on provinces where voting was still under way, so the count will fold in a manner broadly familiar in Australia, with the earliest results to be reported from the eastern provinces and the thickest flow coming about an hour or two later on.

The opinion poll industry in Canada hasn’t been in particularly good form in recent years, having seriously underestimated the Conservative vote at the last federal election in 2011, and badly miscalled provincial elections in British Columbia in 2013 and Alberta in 2012. For what it’s worth though, poll aggregators suggest the most likely outcome is that Harper will make way for a minority government under Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, who bears the most famous name in Canadian politics as the son of Pierre Trudeau, the longest-serving prime minister of the modern era. The Liberals are of the left to the extent that they are the traditional party of government that’s not the Conservatives, but they also have to reckon with the rivalry of the trade union-backed New Democratic Party, whose breakthrough performance in 2011 reduced the Liberals to third place. The picture has also been complicated in recent decades by the notional separatists of the Bloc Québécois, although they appear not to have recovered from the drubbing they copped on their home turf of Quebec at the hands of the NDP in 2011.

The projections of CBC News and the Toronto Star suggest the Liberals stand to win around 145 seats, leaving them about 20 short of an absolute majority in a chamber that is growing from 308 to 338 seats. The Conservatives are well behind on around 120, while the NDP appears set to return to its traditional third party status with about 70 seats. So far as vote shares go, the Conservatives have spent the two-month campaign stuck in the low thirties, putting them well below the 39.6% that secured them a bare majority in 2011. The big story has been the consolidation of the anti-Conservative vote behind the Liberal Party – a remarkable achievement, given that they started about 10% behind the NDP. The Liberals gained steadily from the beginning of the official campaign period in August and moved ahead of the NDP around the time of the final debate on October 2, which triggered a snowball effect as tactical voters sided with the party best placed to defeat the Conservatives.

This points to the fact that Canada retains a British-style single-member first-past-the-post electoral system, tailored to fit a two-party system that neither country still possesses. In the absence of preferential voting, the hopes of the struggling Conservatives rest on Liberal-NDP vote-splitting enabling them to secure victories from a low share of the vote. Not surprisingly, the Liberals are making an issue out of electoral reform, promising an all-party committee to review alternatives to first-past-the-post. Prominently featured in the discussion are the alternative vote, otherwise known as optional preferential voting, and proportional representation by single transferable vote, the electoral system of choice for Australia’s upper houses.

Further Australian perspectives on the election are offered by Charles Richardson and Antony Green.

Canadian election: May 2

Canadians go to the polls on Tuesday to decide whether to grant a third term to Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, who have been in minority government since 2006. The Conservatives currently have 143 of the parliament’s 308 seats, with their main rivals the Liberals on 77, the separatist Bloc Quebecois on 47 out of the 75 seats in Quebec, and the leftist New Democratic Party on 36. The current election campaign has produced a major astonishment in the polls, which after pointing to a roughly status quo result at the start of the campaign have had the NDP rocketing into second place at the expense of the withering Liberals. Localised polls also show the NDP taking the lead over BQ in Quebec. The precise impact of such shifts in terms of seats would require an expertise on matters Canadian which I cannot claim. Nonetheless, there is serious discussion of the prospect of an NDP-led coalition with the Liberals, granting the prime ministership to the party’s leader Jack Layton rather than Liberal Opposition Leader, Michael Ignatieff (a circumstance with many precedents at provincial level, but not federally). Failing that, they might at least displace the Liberals as the official opposition. The latter result would seem to my untrained eye to be a lot more likely: surely any split in the left-centre vote will prove a boon to the Conservatives, who monopolise the right. It is also tempting to recall that the Liberal Democrats went into last year’s British election with expectations nearly as lofty as those of the NDP, only to be disappointed on polling day.

Canadian election minus four days

In the interests of Anglosphere outreach (with apologies to our friends in Quebec), here is a thread for discussion of Tuesday’s Canadian election. Conservative leader Stephen Harper has headed a minority government in Canada since the defeat of Paul Martin’s Liberal government at the January 2006 election, and has called an early election in the hope of securing a majority. However, recent polling suggests his party’s vote has softened from the high to the low thirties, slightly lower than where it was at the 2006 election. The Conservatives currently have 127 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons (lower house) against 95 for the opposition Liberal Party, led by Stéphane Dion. On the cross-benches are Bloc Québécois (48 seats), the New Democratic Party (30 seats), the Green Party (one seat) and three independents. Canada has a single-member electoral system, but lacks the even geographical spread of party support that enshrines the two-party system in Australia. In particular, the separatist Bloc Québécois usually polls over 40 per cent of the vote in its home province, and holds a majority of its 75 seats. Canada also has a Senate, but it is unelected and has only residual powers.