Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

Western front communiqué #6

• One aspect of the Mark Latham descendancy that cannot pass unremarked is its impact on the Western Australian election, not to mention the Western Australian election’s impact on it. While the Queensland Labor leadership’s public interventions got the most press, the Western Australians’ were the most frantic. With a Friday announcement of a February 19 election the only logical course for them to follow, Geoff Gallop’s government faced two possible scenarios going into the campaign – ongoing collateral damage from instability at the federal level if Latham stayed, or a morale-boosting return to prominence for local boy Kim Beazley if he went. It fell to Jim McGinty, Health Minister, Attorney-General and Left faction power-broker, to go one better than Peter Beattie and Bob Carr had yet done with a public demand on Sunday that Latham quit. That achieved, an election announcement is all but certain to follow no later than Friday.

• In other illness-related retirement news, the Albany Advertiser reported yesterday that Cyril Rodoreda has withdrawn as the Liberal candidate for Stirling, which had been looming as one of a large number of interesting contests between the Liberals and the Nationals in the south-west. Nationals member Monty House is retiring after 19 years in parliament, and the party has nominated WA College of Agriculture principal Terry Redman in his place. In keeping with the usual fluidity of conservative politics in the south-west, former Nationals vice-president Vicki Brown, who had been spoken of earlier as the party’s likely candidate, is instead running as an independent.

• For us serious psephologists, the biggest sensation of the week is that Antony Green has made minor adjustments to three of his post-redistribution seat margin estimates. Of these the most exciting is the extra 0.1 per cent breathing space afforded to the Liberals in finely poised Darling Range.

Whither Werriwa

The Poll Bludger does not make it his business to commentate on the political state of play outside of election season, so here at least the "whither Labor?" stuff will remain on ice until 2007. As far as this corner of cyberspace is concerned, the big story to emerge from today’s retirement announcement by Mark Latham is that a by-election looms for his south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa. Whoever ends up winning will become the fourth successive member for Werriwa to take their seat after a by-election, a tradition going back to 1952 when young Sydney barrister Edward Gough Whitlam added 12.4 per cent to Labor’s margin after the death of member Hubert Lazzarini. Werriwa remained Whitlam’s home until he quit politics after leading Labor to a second successive electoral disaster in 1977. John Kerin, who held the seat of Macarthur for Labor at the 1972 and 1974 elections before being swept away in 1975, won a by-election on 23 September 1978 with a swing of 12.1 per cent, similar to that achieved by Whitlam 26 years earlier. Kerin would go on to serve successfully as Primary Industry Minister in the Hawke Government and unsuccessfully as Treasurer in the period when Paul Keating sat on the back-bench after his failed first challenge in 1991. For some reason he saw fit to re-contest the seat at the 1993 federal election but moved to the back-bench immediately afterwards and bowed out from politics before the year was through. Then came the turn of Mark Latham, who easily survived a 6.3 per cent swing to the Liberals at a by-election held on 29 January 1994.

The Constitution and the Electoral Act are silent on the timing of by-elections, such that the government could theoretically not hold one at all if that were of any advantage to them. Since this is never the case, there seems no reason to doubt that what the Australian Electoral Commission describes as the "guiding principle" regarding such matters will be observed, namely "to hold the election as early as possible so that the electors are not left without representation any longer than is necessary". Since Latham has yet to hand his resignation to the Speaker, and in view of the wide discretion allowed to the government in setting the date, it is still hard to say when that might be exactly.

While a great deal has been written on the subject of who might replace Latham as Labor leader, the Poll Bludger has heard nothing about who might be in contention to replace him as member for Werriwa, but does not doubt that intensive manoeuvering is already under way. Presumably the Carr-for-Canberra idea is dead and buried, as the possibility of him filling the vacancy is nowhere being canvassed. Whoever gets Labor’s nomination, the precedent of Cunningham in 2002 suggests there is no certainty they will carry the seat. Thus will the new Labor leader arrive in the job facing a potentially dangerous early test of electoral strength, although it is likely their honeymoon effect will prevent a replay of Cunningham where Labor lost a safe seat to the Greens a year after the struggling Simon Crean took over.

Gallop poll

Yet another shocking opinion poll for Geoff Gallop’s Labor government, this time from Roy Morgan, which can always be relied upon to paint a rosier picture for Labor than its rivals. Today’s results show a 3.5 per cent shift to the Coalition since the poll taken two months ago, reducing Labor to 49.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. On the primary vote, Labor are down 3 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Coalition are up 2 per cent to 43.5 per cent. Family First have been given a separate entry for the first time, although their 1 per cent support may not justify it. The trend from all three polling organisations is hard to miss:

Westpoll Morgan Newspoll
ALP LNP GRN ALP LNP GRN ALP LNP GRN
December 40 51 5 39.5 43.5 8 34 49 7
Oct/Nov 41 50 6 42.5 41.5 9 – – –
Aug/Sept 46 47 5 47.5 38 7 38 41 9
Election 10/2/01 37.2 34.4 7.3 37.2 34.4 7.3 37.2 34.4 7.3

Not so fast

Geoff Gallop says, "there won’t be an announcement this week on the election. I don’t think I’ll be going to see the Governor this week, but watch this space and we’ll see when the election comes". Leaving aside the perplexing shift from "won’t be" in sentence one to "don’t think" in sentence two, this appears to rule out February 12 without locking in February 19, although in reality the latter date is all but certain.

Western front communiqué #5

With seasonal festivities out of the way, the Poll Bludger will now endeavour to lift his work rate as the Western Australian election looms ever nearer.

• The silly season has taken on an altogether different complexion in the wake of the tsunami catastrophe, but the effect has been to make the new year period an even greater dead zone than usual for substantial domestic political coverage. The Gallop government has thus been afforded no opportunity to shape the agenda as it prepares for the coming election in the face of deteriorating opinion polling. Accordingly, great import is being read into news that Premier Geoff Gallop will make a major policy announcement at the WA Media Club on Friday, described by AAP as a "hastily arranged keynote speech". Monica Videnieks of The West Australian reports that this is being seen as an attempt to regain the initiative ahead of an announcement of an election for either February 12 or February 19. Elections on these dates would respectively need to be called no later than January 14 (this coming Friday) or January 21.

• The contest for the well-heeled riverside electorate of Alfred Cove, won from unpopular Liberal heavy Doug Shave by Janet Woollard of Liberals for Forests in 2001, looms as the election’s most interesting sideshow. To the Poll Bludger’s mind, there has never seemed any reason why Woollard should not be able to match the electoral longevity of the similarly placed member for Churchlands, Elizabeth Constable, who has been untroubled by Liberal challengers since entering parliament at a 1991 by-election. However a number of those in the know appear to think differently. Liberal preselection for the seat was hotly contested and eventually won by Court government Workplace Relations Minister Graham Kierath, who lost his seat of Riverton in 2001. Michael Southwell, noted local journalist and Greens preselection candidate, wrote in November that Woollard "cannot and will not retain her seat" because she has failed to make an impact over the logging debate or the ongoing issues surrounding the finance brokers scandal which were primarily responsible for her winning the seat in the first place. If Woollard really is in trouble, she has been thrown a lifeline by The West Australian, whose page two gossip column Inside Cover has devoted much of its space over the past week to a "civil disobedience" campaign by Applecross traders rebelling against a Melville City Council demand that a poster promoting Woollard be removed from a local shop window. The complaint was initiated by Kierath, while the high-profile mayor of the council in question, Katherine Jackson, is also running as an independent after failing to win Liberal preselection. The demand has led to a rash of Woollard posters appearing locally as shop owners express solidarity in opposition to the demand, which has led to talk of a High Court challenge on constitutional grounds if the council proceeds with a prosecution.

One day in February

Monica Videnieks of The West Australian has had a fair bit to say recently on the likely timing of the state election, offering this on Monday:

If (Premier Geoff Gallop) chooses a campaign longer than the typical four weeks, Dr Gallop can call the State election as early as tomorrow (didn’t happen – PB). But it is more likely an election for February 12 would see Dr Gallop visiting the Governor, Lt-Gen John Sanderson, after January 11. If the Government opts for a February 19 election, Dr Gallop’s trip to Government House is more likely to take place in the week of January 18. The Premier can opt to delay the election until May 21, although this would run against the Government’s argument for fixed terms and could be seen as a sign it is afraid of a vote.

The article also cites Harry Phillips of Edith Cowan University saying a January 18 poll would give Labor "more time to remind voters of its accomplishments, particularly difficult at the moment with news of the South-East Asian tsunami disaster saturating the media".

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