Author: William Bowe

A busy week of federal polling continued yesterday with a new result from YouGov, which had Labor’s two-party lead out from 51-49 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Leadership ratings were not included on this occasion, but there was an Anzac Day-inspired question inviting respondents to choose between assertions that Australia “should be prepared to fight for our country’s values”, favoured by 46%, and that “we should be sceptical of politicians who want to commit troops to wars not necessary to the direct defence of Australia”, favoured by 42%. There was a marked tendency for younger respondents to favour the latter (44% to 34% among the 18-to-24 cohort) and older respondents the former (60% to 34% for those aged 65 and over). The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1514.

Results from a YouGov state poll for Queensland will be published at 2pm today in the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: For now it only offers the finding that 53% would prefer Steven Miles to Annastacia Palaszczuk as Premier and 47% vice-versa. Voting intention evidently to follow tomorrow morning.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has both parties up on the primary vote, Labor by two to 31% and the Coalition by one to 35%, with undecided down two to 4%. The Greens are on 11%, reversing a three-point spike last time, and One Nation gets its best result for the term with a three-point surge to 9%. The Coalition moves back into the lead on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up three to 49% with Labor down one to 47%. The monthly leadership ratings find Peter Dutton with net positive approval for the first time from this or any other pollster, with a four-point gain on approval to 44% and a three-point drop on disapproval to 41%. Anthony Albanese up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 43% and 48% respectively.

A regular question on national mood found a one-point increase in those who consider the country headed in the wrong direction to 50% and a one point drop on right direction to 32%. When it was put to respondents that the government’s Future Made in Australia policy would “provide funding for large-scale renewable energy projects that support the creation of local jobs”, 51% were in favour with 18% opposed. Fifty-two per cent said they would support nuclear power, up two from October, with 31% opposed, down two. A question on Israel’s military action in Gaza recorded a five-point drop in those who thought Israel should permanently withdraw to 32%, with 19% considering its actions justified (up one) and 19% favouring a temporary ceasefire (down one). Twenty-nine per cent supported recognition of a Palestinian state with 24% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1145.

After two successive polls with the Coalition in the lead, the latest weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor back in front 52-48 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition is down three to 35.5%, the Greens are up two-and-a-half to 16% and One Nation is steady at 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1617.

Preselection news:

• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports Leon Rebello, solicitor at King & Wood Mallesons, won a Liberal National Party preselection on the weekend to succeed the retiring Karen Andrews in McPherson. Other candidates were Ben Naday, lawyer and former staffer to Andrews, and David Stevens, managing director of a private strategy and investment consulting firm and Howard government cabinet policy unit adviser.

• Ian Bushnell of RiotACT reports four candidates have nominated for a Liberal preselection vote to be held on Saturday to choose the party’s lead Senate candidate in the Australian Capital Territory: Giulia Jones, who served in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2022; Jerry Nockles, deputy chief executive of Independent Higher Education Australia and unsuccessful candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2022; Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy; and Kacey Lam-Evans, a former ministerial adviser to Christopher Pyne who now works for his lobbying firm. Zed Seselja lost the party’s ACT Senate seat to independent David Pocock at the 2022 election.

• Mark Phillips of Brunswick Voice reports Samantha Ratnam, the Greens state party leader, has won the party preselection ballot for the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, prevailing over the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (steady). On personal ratings, all we are told for now is that Anthony Albanese has a net minus six (up one), Peter Dutton a net minus 15 (steady), and Albanese holds a 13-point lead as preferred prime minister (down one). UPDATE: Albanese is steady on 44% approval and down one to 50% on disapproval; Dutton is down one on both approval and disapproval, to 36% and 51%; preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-34 to 48-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1236.

Nine Newspapers also brings us the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which gives Labor its weakest result since the election. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 30%, with the Coalition up one to 36%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation steady on 5%. Resolve Strategic does not include two-party preferred results, but the report quotes its director Jim Reed saying Labor and the Coalition were tied “after preferences were calculated on the stated intention of survey respondents“.

Both leaders record improved personal ratings: Anthony Albanese is up five on approval (or more specifically, his combined very good and good result on his “performance as prime minister in recent weeks”) to 43% and down four on disapproval to 45%, while Peter Dutton is up four to 40% and down two to 42%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 40-30 to 41-32. The poll was conducted Wednesday through to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

The poll also includes results on favoured household assistance measures for the looming budget, which are interestingly broken down into low, medium and high income cohorts, producing startlingly different results. Given one of five options to pick, only 3% on low incomes favoured lower income tax rates, with 28% supporting higher welfare payments and 27% energy bill relief. For the high income cohort, 27% favoured “downward pressure on inflation and interest rates” (presumably to be accomplished through no household assistance at all), with only 8% favouring higher welfare.

The Coalition has now chalked up consecutive two-party preferred leads in Roy Morgan for the first time this term, its lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49. The primary votes are little changed, with Labor up half a point to 30%, the Coalition up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706. The Financial Review also published further results from its Freshwater Strategy poll showing 38% support for a longer term for the House of Representatives, with 44% opposed.

Preselection news:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, is all but certain to win decisive Socialist Left backing to fill Labor’s Victorian Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Linda White in February. However, four further candidates are rated likely to nominate for the factional ballot, though not to win, “to force a party ballot amid frustration over ethnic diversity and union influence”. They are Wesa Chau, director of public policy at Multicultural Leadership Initiative; Pamela Anderson, chief executive of Labor women’s advocacy group Emily’s List; Nadia David, a farmer and criminologist; and Sorina Grasso, deputy mayor of the City of Knox. The party’s national secretary, Paul Erickson, and Victorian Attorney-General Jill Hennessy, have reportedly knocked back approaches to nominate.

• Samantha Ratnam, Victorian Greens leader and member for the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, has announced she will quit state politics to seek preselection for the federal seat of Wills, which Peter Khalil retained for Labor ahead of the Greens by margins of 4.9% in 2016, 8.2% in 2019 and 8.6% in 2022. She faces a rival in the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford, but Annika Smethurst of The Age rates Ratnam a “near certainty” in a party ballot for which voting wrapped upon Wednesday. The Age further reports the Greens hope to “unite conservative Muslim voters with young progressives”, it being presumed that the former will be disaffected over the government’s stance on the conflict in Gaza.

• A Liberal preselection last fortnight for the Perth seat of Tangney, which the party will be optimistic of recovering after Sam Lim gained it for Labor with an 11.9% swing in 2022, was won by Mark Wales, SAS veteran, Survivor winner and author of a novel about a future war with China. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports Wales was a “clear winner” over Howard Ong, an IT consultant, and Sean Ayres, a litigation lawyer and staffer to the previous member for the seat, Ben Morton.

• The Financial Review reports Roanne Knox, former Deloitte consultant and founder of children’s fashion label Chasing Sunshine, will shortly be endorsed by the Liberal state executive as the candidate for Wentworth, where teal independent Allegra Spender defeated now Senator Dave Sharma in 2022. Peter King, who held the seat for a term before being deposed for preselection by Malcolm Turnbull in 2004, was earlier rated as a contender, has ultimately declined to nominate.

• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports Jess Collins, conservative-aligned Lowy Institute research fellow and unsuccessful candidate for the late Jim Molan’s Senate vacancy in November, will contest the Senate preselection ballot for the next election, potentially posing a threat to Andrew Bragg, a moderate who alienated many in the party by supporting the Indigenous Voice. The other incumbent, centre right-aligned Hollie Hughes, is likely to get the top position.

Newspoll has not reported according to the three-week schedule it usually observes, but the Financial Review fills the void with the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll. This records a tie on two-party preferred after a 51-49 result in favour of Labor last time, but it’s based on only the slightest changes on the primary vote, with Labor steady on 31%, the Coalition up one on 40% and the Greens down one on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 45%, Peter Dutton is up two to 32% and down two to 41%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 47-38 to 45-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1055.