Author: Adrian Beaumont

US Georgia Senate runoff election minus four days

The last action of the midterms is important for Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate after the 2024 elections. Also covered: the Malaysian election and UK developments.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The first section of this article has been copied from my article Thursday mainly about the Victorian upper house results for The Conversation.

The United States November 8 midterm elections are not quite finished, as the Georgia Senate contest has gone to a runoff Tuesday, with polls closing at 11am Wednesday AEDT. At the November 8 election, Democrat Raphael Warnock won 49.4% and Republican Herschel Walker 48.5%. A Libertarian, with 2.1%, prevented a majority for either candidate, and so the runoff. Polls for the runoff suggest Warnock is narrowly ahead.

Democrats currently lead the Senate by 50-49. Even if Warnock loses, they will still control the Senate on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. But this election is important because Democrats face a very difficult Senate map in the 2024 elections.

Of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2024, 23 are Democrat-held and just ten Republican-held. Democrat-held seats include three states – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio – that Donald Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020. Democrats need to win Georgia next week to have a realistic chance of keeping the Senate after the 2024 elections.

Republicans likely won the House of Representatives on November 8 by a margin of 222-213 over Democrats, the exact reverse of Democrats’ 222-213 majority after the 2020 elections. Republicans lead the overall House popular vote by 50.7-47.8 according to the Cook Political Report.

Update Sunday: The final undecided House seat, California’s 13th, has been called for the Republicans, confirming a 222-213 House win.

US polls understated the left, in contrast to polls at other recent major national elections

At the Australian national election, polls overstated Labor’s primary support and understated UAP, although polls were better after preferences as Labor performed better than expected on preference flows. Polls also understated the right at recent Brazilian and Israeli elections.

Polls for the US midterm elections understated the left (Democrats), particularly in some key Senate contests. In New Hampshire, Democrat Hassan defeated Republican Bolduc by 9.1%; polls gave Hassan only about a two-point lead. Democrat Fetterman defeated Republican Oz in Pennsylvania by 4.9%, but most polls gave Oz the lead, although Marist College (Fetterman up six) was an exception. Democrats also outperformed their polls in Arizona and Nevada.

We should not assume that polls will be biased against Warnock in Georgia, just because they were generally biased against Democrats at the midterms. Poll bias can change from one election to another, and the Georgia runoff is a different election.

Anwar Ibrahim finally becomes Malaysian PM

Anwar Ibrahim was finance minister in Mahathir Mohamad’s conservative UMNO government in 1998, but was removed from all posts that year, and jailed in 1999 after a trial for sodomy and corruption that was criticised by human rights groups. At the 2018 election, Mahathir led an anti-UMNO coalition to victory and became PM, but his coalition broke down, and UMNO returned.

Malaysia’s parliament has 222 members elected by first past the post. The November 19 election produced the first hung parliament in its history, with Anwar’s reformist PKR winning 82 seats on 37.5%, with the nationalist BERSATU on 73 seats and 30.4%, and UMNO on 30 seats and 22.4%. Most parties pledged to join a unity government led by Anwar, with a confidence vote scheduled for December 19.

UK Labour maintains huge poll lead, and receives big swing at by-election

It’s over a month since Rishi Sunak became Britain’s PM on October 25. Labour is maintaining a huge lead with its vote in the high 40s in UK national polls, with the Conservatives in the low to mid 20s in most polls. Some of the Conservatives’ losses recently are benefiting the far-right Reform, which was at 9% in a recent YouGov poll.

A parliamentary by-election occurred Thursday in the Labour-held City of Chester. Labour won by 60.8-22.2 over the Conservatives with 8.3% for the Liberal Democrats and 3.5% Greens. At the 2019 general election. Labour won this seat by 49.6-38.3 with 6.8% Lib Dems and 2.6% Greens. This seat was a safe Conservative seat until Labour won it in the 1997 landslide. The Conservatives regained it in 2010, but Labour won it by just 93 votes in 2015 and expanded that margin greatly in 2017.

Victorian election live

Live coverage of the count for the Victorian state election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.

End of evening update (WB)

My results system will continue ticking over through late counting, but until I iron out a few bugs that seem to be having the effect of overrating Greens and independents’ chances in tight races, I recommend favouring the ABC’s projections over mine to the extent of inconsistencies. So while the Greens have easily won Richmond, it seems unlikely they will add further to their existing three seats; and it is unclear that any independents will win, with incumbents losing to the Nationals in Mildura and Shepparton, teals being only possibilities in Hawthorn and Mornington, and a number of hyped independent challengers in Labor seats having made only the faintest of impressions.

I haven’t had time to look at the Legislative Council at all, but the preliminary projections of the ABC suggest the Greens are returning as a force in the chamber, up from one seat to four, with Labor on 15 and having myriad possibilities of assembling the required 21 votes out of 40 from another sprawling cross-bench.

Live Commentary

11:32pm There’s a lot of counting to go in the upper house, but the current results look promising for a progressive upper house.  It’s 15 Labor out of 40, 15 Coalition, four Greens, two Legalise Cannabis, one Animal Justice, one Fiona Patten, one Shooter and one One Nation.  If this holds up (I’m not confident given group voting tickets), then the left side will have 23 of the 40 upper house seats and the right 17.  And with that, it’s time for bed for me.  William Bowe will resume coverage of the Victorian election.

11:16pm I’ve done a short article for The Conversation on the results so far.  The Coalition would have been thrashed given the 54.3-45.7 current statewide numbers, but furthermore they’ve lost seats in net terms to Labor, rather than gaining.  The swing to the Coalition was inefficiently distributed, being wasted on safe Labor seats, while some swings to Labor were on Coalition marginal seats.

9:53pm The ABC has Labor losing Morwell and Nepean to the Coalition, but gaining Bayswater, Glen Waverley, Hastings and Polwarth.  If that holds, Labor would be up two in Labor vs Coalition seats.

9:40pm Labor has clearly won a majority, but I’m not sure yet how large the Greens surge will be.  Early votes are now being reported in some seats, and look better for Labor in swing terms than Election Day votes.

9:13pm Greens leading in seven seats now, but in Albert Park they’ve fallen behind the Libs on primary vote, and this will be a Labor vs Lib contest with Labor winning.  Greens gains have been called in Northcote, Richmond and Footscray, while Preston is close between Labor and the Greens with Labor just ahead.

8:31pm There are two Lib-held seats where Labor is currently leading: Bayswater and Glen Waverley.

8:28pm While the Greens are currently winning Albert Park, the final primary vote projections show the Libs getting into second, in which case it’ll be Labor vs Lib with Labor winning.

8:22pm With 33% counted in Hawthorn, teal ind Lowe is leading the Libs by 52.3-47.7 on projected 2CP.  She has climbed into second ahead of Labor and projections suggest she’ll stay second.

7:58pm Greens now winning EIGHT lower house seats.  But with 9.3% counted statewide, swing against Labor down to 3.1% two party, and they’re winning this count by 54.5-45.5 — exactly what Newspoll said.

7:52pm Daniel Andrews will easily win Mulgrave.  The Libs have made their first gain from Labor in Nepean, with a 6.3% swing.

7:45pm Some bug in the PB results now, but before they went offline the Greens were winning SEVEN lower house seats, which would be a great result for them and up from their current three.

7:35pm With 4.1% statewide counted, two party swing against Labor drops to 3.8%, and they’re now up 53.8-46.2 statewide.  They’re leading or have won 47 lower house seats, enough for a majority.  The Coalition is leading in 24 seats and the Greens in five.

7:29pm Now down to a 9.6% swing to the Libs in Yan Yean, with Labor winning by 57.6-42.4 with 6.3% in.

7:28pm With 5.5% counted in Yan Yean, there’s a massive 14.5% swing to the Libs, with Labor still winning by 52.7-47.3.

7:24pm With 2.7% counted, overall swing against Labor reduces to 5.2%, and they lead by 52.3-47.7.

7:16pm Overall swing against Labor increases to 7.3% two party with 2.0% counted.  Only ahead by 50.2-49.8 now, which would see them lose their lower house majority.

7:08pm Teal Independent Melissa Lowe currently winning Hawthorn 54-46 over Libs.  Problem is she’s currently third behind the Libs and Labor.

7:06pm Back to a projected lead of 51.9-48.1 to the Greens in Footscray with 1.8% in.

7:04pm First booth in Footscray is a strong swing to the Greens, who would gain this seat from Labor if that holds up.

6:59pm PB results now projecting a 5.0% overall two party swing against Labor, though that would still be a 52.6-47.4 win for Labor; this might not be enough for a majority.

6:44pm With 1.5% counted in Euroa, the PB projected swing so far is 1.7% to Labor.  It’s a safe Nat seat, but not a good early sign for the Coalition

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

William Bowe is working for Channel Nine, and has asked me to provide live commentary on the Victorian election. Once a result for the lower house is clear, I will need to write an article for The Conversation. The rest of this intro post is from my article for The Conversation on the large final Newspoll lead for Labor.

There are 88 single-member lower house seats with members elected by preferential voting, and 40 upper house seats in eight five-member electorates. The election in the lower house seat of Narracan has been postponed owing to a candidate’s death.

As at Friday, ABC election analyst Antony Green said 43.4% of all Victorian enrolled voters had voted early in-person, and a further 13.3% had applied for a postal vote. With a likely final turnout of around 90%, that means over 63% have already voted. Early voting has increased since 2018.

The early voting will slow election night counts as early vote centres will likely take until late at night to report their counts. The Poll Bludger said Friday that some postal votes will also be counted on election night. Counting could also be slow owing to the large numbers of candidates.

In the upper house, with eight five-member electorates, a quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. It’s probably not safe to call for anyone not elected on quota on election night as small changes in vote share can give a different result under group voting tickets (GVT).

The ABC will have projections of upper house results using its calculator. But this calculator assumes that all votes are above the line ticket votes. If a party that needs help from other parties’ GVTs is beating a bigger party by a narrow margin, that lead would likely disappear once below the line votes are factored in.

Introductory note by William Bowe.

The VEC is conducting non-standard two-party preferred counts in the following seats: Labor versus Greens in Albert Park, Bruswick, Footscray, Melbourne, Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Preston and Richmond; Liberal versus independent in Benambra, Brighton, Hawthorn, Kew, Mornington and Shepparton; Labor versus independent in Melton, Point Cook and Werribee; independent versus Nationals in Mildura; Greens versus Liberal in Prahran.

At first, the projections in the live results will assume the VEC has picked the two candidates correctly. As it becomes apparent in which seats it has not done so, which these days is just about inevitable in at least some cases, I will have to make a manual adjustment so that preference estimates are used to calculate a two-candidate preferred result (such estimates are also used until a respectable amount of the two-candidate preferred votes are reported). To illustrate this point: until I make such an adjustment, the system will give Labor no chance of retaining Hawthorn, since the count there is between the Liberal and an independent.

The results maps that can be accessed by clicking the button at the bottom of each electorate page indicate the locations of polling booths with white dots when no results are in; colour-coded dots when primary vote results only are available; and, when the booth’s two-candidate result has been reported, colour-coded numbers showing the percentage result for the party that won the booth.

US midterm elections late counting

Democrats are likely to hold the Senate, and still retain hope of an upset win in the House of Representatives. To be updated over the coming days.

10:59am Thursday Reps have just been projected to win California’s 27th. That gives them 218 seats and control of the House, with Dems on 208. If all current leads are retained, Reps will win the House by 221-214. Reps lead in the popular vote is down to 51.3-47.1, a 4.2% margin. Earlier, the Dem won Maine’s second 53.1-46.9 after preferences from an independent were counted. This will be my final update to this late counting thread.

3:27pm In Alaska Senate, with 80% counted, the Trump-endorsed Tshibaka’s lead over the moderate Rep incumbent Murkowski narrows to just 43.3-43.1 with 10.0% for a Dem. Those Dem preferences will help Murkowski. In Alaska’s only House seat, the Dem now has 48.1% of primaries, 8% higher than at the August by-election, and will win convincingly. Preferences will be tabulated Nov 24 AEDT.

2pm CNN has called California’s 41st for the Rep, moving them to 217 House seats and now just one away from the majority.

1:41pm Wednesday In non-counting news, Donald Trump has announced his 2024 presidential campaign. Perhaps that will assist Democratic turnout in Georgia’s Senate runoff election in three weeks. In counting news, the Dem’s lead in California’s 13th has been cut back to 50.3-49.7 today from 50.4-49.6 yesterday, but the Dem lead in California’s 47th has widened to 50.8-49.2 from 50.6-49.4 yesterday. CNN currently has the House at 216-205 to the Reps, wha are two wins away from a majority.

3:03pm Dems have overturned a Rep lead in California’s 13th district, and now lead 50.4-49.6 with 58% in. But trends in other California seats are good for the Reps. Also, New York’s 22nd has been called for the Reps. If current leads hold, the final House will be 221-214 to the Reps.

1:37pm Reps will win the Alaska governor, so the final governors’ results will be 26 Reps to 24 Dems. Dems gained Massachusetts and Maryland after moderate Rep governors retired. They also gained Arizona, while the Reps gained Nevada. All election deniers who ran in key swing states for secretary of state – a state’s chief electoral authority – were defeated.

1:05pm Tuesday With almost all votes counted in Arizona, Dem Hobbs will win the governor, a Dem gain; she currently leads by 50.4-49.6. But Reps will win two House seats by 1% or less, taking their tally to 214 seats to 204 for Dems, with 218 needed for a majority. Reps are near certainties now to win a House majority.

2:17pm While California’s late counting has generally been good for the Dems, the exception is the 41st district. The Rep has extended his lead to 51.3-48.7, from 50.7-49.3 yesterday. The Arizona late counting below would be from mail drop ins on Election Day, which were expected to help the Reps.

12:35pm Monday Today’s Arizona counting has been good for the Reps. In Arizona’s first district, the Rep has taken a 50.1-49.9 lead after the Dem led by 50.4-49.6 yesterday. In the sixth, the Rep has extended his lead to 50.3-49.7 from 50.2-49.8 yesterday. If Reps win both these districts, it’s very likely they will win the House majority. Also some US media, but not yet CNN, have called Oregon’s sixth for the Reps.

1:33pm Sunday Clark counting has put Dem Cortez Masto up by 0.5% or almost 5,000 votes statewide in Nevada Senate, and CNN has CALLED it for the Dems, a Dem hold. Dems now have 50 Senate seats to 49 for Reps, and they will HOLD the Senate on Harris’ casting vote, regardless of Georgia’s runoff result in December.

In the House, Washington’s third district has been called for the Dems, a Dem gain. This is a major upset. Reps now lead on seats by 211-204 per CNN, with some races in Arizona and Oregon still close and set to be decided on late counting.

7:20pm Arizona Senate has been CALLED for Dem Kelly as he leads by 51.8-46.1 with 85% counted. In Nevada Senate, Rep Laxalt retains a lead just over 800 votes after a Washoe batch cancelled out with rural counties. But Clark tomorrow should be decisive. In the House, CNN has called four more seats for Dems, who now trail by just 211-203, even though Reps still lead by 5.2% on popular votes.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

At time of writing on Saturday morning, CNN had Democrats winning 48 Senate seats (including seats not up for election and two independents who caucus with Democrats), Republicans had 49 seats and three races were uncalled.

Of the uncalled seats, Georgia will go to a December 6 runoff after no candidate won at least 50% owing to a Libertarian who got 2%. In Arizona, the Democrat leads by 51.7-46.1, and although Election Day mail drop offs are expected to help Republicans, they are unlikely to be enough to overturn that lead. In Nevada, the Republican currently leads by just 48.5-48.4, or just under 800 votes, but there’s more than enough late mail in Democratic-leaning Clark and Washoe counties to overturn that lead.

If Democrats win Arizona and Nevada, they will have 50 Senate seats, enough to control it on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. However, as I wrote for The Conversation on Wednesday night, Democrats face a very difficult Senate map in 2024, when they will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just ten.

House: Republican majority no sure thing

In the House of Representatives, CNN has called 211 seats for Republicans and 199 for Democrats, a net gain for Republicans of 12. There are 435 total House seats, so 218 are required for a majority.

Two of the remaining uncalled seats used preferential voting: Maine’s second and Alaska’s at-large. In both these cases, I will call for the Democratic candidates. In Maine’s second, the Democrat is leading by 49.2-43.9, and won’t be caught on preferences. In Alaska, Democrat Peltola is at 47.3%, with Republicans Palin at 26.6% and Begich at 24.2%. Peltola’s vote share is 7% higher than at the by-election she won against Palin in August, and should increase further in late counting.

If we give these two seats to Democrats, the House is currently 211-201 to Republicans, leaving 23 uncalled seats. Twelve of these 23 seats are in California, the most populous US state, with 52 total House seats. California takes about four weeks to count all its votes, and Democrats will hope that late mail assists them to overturn Republican leads there.

According to this spreadsheet, Republicans currently lead in 221 House seats and Democrats in 214, so Democrats would need to overturn four current Republican leads to win the House. Despite the tenuous lead for Republicans in seats, they are winning the House popular vote by 52.0-46.5, a 5.5% margin, according to the Cook Political Report. I believe this popular vote lead is partly explained by Democrats not contesting many safe Republican seats, so Republicans won nearly 100% of votes in those seats.

One other federal contest of interest is Alaska Senate, where the Trump-backed Republican Tshibaka leads the moderate Republican incumbent Murkowski by 44.2-42.8 on primary votes with 9.5% for a Democrat. Murkowski is likely to gain in late counting and Democratic preferences will assist her to hold her seat.

US midterm elections live

Republicans will probably win both chambers of Congress, though the Senate is much closer. Live commentary from late Wednesday morning.

Live Commentary

4:15pm In Nevada Senate, Laxalt’s lead down to 48.9-48.0, or just over 8,000 votes, on more mail from Washoe county.

2:19pm It’s looking very good for Dem Kelly in Arizona Senate. He now has a 51.7-46.1 lead after 79% is counted. Maricopa’s votes increased his lead, but mail drop offs still haven’t been counted.

1:52pm Rep Laxalt’s lead in the Nevada Senate race narrows to under 12,700 votes (49.2-47.8) on more counting from Dem Clark county.

12:21pm In the House, Reps now lead by 209-195 per CNN, a 12-seat net gain so far. They now lead in 221 seats to 214 Dem leads after flipping a Dem lead in Colorado’s third district.

11:52am Friday I’m not sure when we’ll get big mail updates from Nevada today. In Arizona, the most populous county, Maricopa, will be releasing new numbers at 2pm AEDT. Dem Kelly currently leads for Senate by 51.5-46.3 with 76% reporting.

5:16pm In the House, CNN has Reps winning by 209-191, and they’ve gained 12 net seats. But this spreadsheet had Reps only leading by 220-215 at 2pm today AEDT counting leads which haven’t been called yet. Despite the narrow current House margin, the Cook Political Report’s national popular vote tracker currently gives Reps a 6.1% overall lead.

4:57pm Rep Laxalt’s lead in Nevada Senate down to 49.4-47.6, or about 15,800 votes on more late mail. Is there enough late mail for the Dem to overhaul Laxalt?

1:20pm Today’s late mail updates in Arizona have been more favourable for Dems than the overall results in the county they were from. Dem Kelly now leads for Senate by 51.4-46.4 with 76% reporting according to CNN. However, mail dropped off on Election Day instead of posted may boost Reps. In Nevada, Rep Laxalt’s lead for Senate has fallen to 49.6-47.5, a little below 18,000 votes on late mail counting.

9:55am In Nevada, Rep Laxalt leads for Senate by 49.9-47.2 or 22,600 votes. But it looks likely there’s at least 160,000 mail remaining to be counted in Nevada’s two most populous counties, Washoe and Clark, and that mail will probably put the Dem back ahead. In Arizona, the last Election Day votes reduced the Dem Senate lead to 51.2-46.6. We’ll see if late mail helps the Reps.

6:30am Thursday CNN has now called 203 House seats for the Reps and 187 for the Dems, a net gain for Reps of seven seats. With 99% of Election Day precincts reporting in Arizona, Dem Kelly leads for Senate by 51.4-46.4. But there are still lots more late mail to count there. In other developments overnight, Wisconsin’s Senate contest was called for Rep Johnson, and Georgia as going to a Dec 6 runoff.

9:25pm I’ve been writing an article about the US midterm results for The Conversation, but in the meantime Rep Laxalt has overtaken Dem Cortez Masto for Nevada Senate by 49.9-47.2. Dems will hope late mail will give Cortez Masto the win. And in Arizona, Dem Kelly’s lead for Senate has narrowed to 52-46 with 91% of Election Day precincts reporting.

7:43pm In Arizona, Dem Senator Kelly’s lead cut to 53-44 on more Election Day votes. And the race tightens further in Nevada too.

7:30pm Reps are still up five sets net in the House, with eight gains to three for Dems. CNN gives them a 195-176 lead with 218 needed for control. Other US media have called more House races.

7:15pm With 65% counted in Nevada, Dem Senator Cortez Masto leads by 50-47. That lead will shrink as more rurals report, but late mail will help Cortez Masto. A likely Dem HOLD.

6pm In the House, Reps lead by 193-170 with 218 needed for control. But Dems have gained two seats, while Reps have gained seven, for a net gain of five for Reps..

5:17pm With 88% counted in Wisconsin Senate, Rep Johnson’s lead falls back to 50.7-49.1.

5:15pm Pennsylvania has been officially CALLED for Dem Fetterman in the Senate. Dem GAIN

5:08pm Arizona Secretary of State website says 72% of Election Day precincts are already in. Seems like a very good chance for Dem Senator Kelly to hold onto his current 57-41 lead.

4:57pm We finally have some results from Nevada. With 44% in, Dem Senator Cortez Masto leads by 54-43. That includes Clark county, the big Dem stronghold in the south-east, but not much from the Rep landslide rurals or the swing county of Washoe.

4:39pm Dem Warnock back ahead in Georgia Senate by 49.1-48.8 with 93% in. Remember the runoff if nobody gets 50%.

4:26pm In Kentucky, the “no” vote against a constitutional amendment banning abortion is leading 52-48 with 80% counted, even as the Rep Senator Paul won a blowout with 61%.

4:15pm In Wisconsin Senate with 80% counted, Rep Johnson leads Dem Barnes by 51.5-48.3. I’m not sure if late mail can snatch that lead back.

4:07pm With 91% counted in Georgia, Rep Walker leads by 49.1-48.8 with 2.0% for a Libertarian. Remember that if nobody gets at least 50% in Georgia, it goes to a Dec 6 runoff.

4:03pm Nate Cohn on Twitter. This would be a Dem Senate GAIN

3:50pm In the House Reps still lead by 179-146 according to CNN and have gained five seats. The 538 live blog says that some House seats that were expected to go to Reps have been retained by Dems.

3:35pm CNN has also called Washington for Dem Murray, a Dem Senate HOLD. Reps have held Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio.

3:33pm CNN has CALLED New Hampshire for Dem Maggie Hassan, who leads by 55-43 with 60% in. That’s Dem Senate HOLD.

3:14pm Dems have GAINED two governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts after moderate Rep governors of those states retired. Reps have easily held their big states of Florida and Texas, while Dems will hold New York and California.

2:40pm Nate Cohn tweets that Dem Fetterman is doing better than Biden just about everywhere in Pennsylvania. Biden won by 1.2%, so that points to a Dem GAIN in Pennsylvania’s Senate race.

2:18pm In the House, Reps have made five gains according to CNN, and lead by 147-82 so far. But Dems have held their two marginal seats in Virginia.

2:13pm The early mail in Arizona has come in, and Dem Kelly leads by 56-41 with 41% in for the Senate. But Election Day turnout was very good for Reps in Arizona.

2:02pm In Iowa Senate, the Dem has a 13 point lead with 27% in. Iowa is another state where early vote is counted first, and Election Day should allow the Rep to win easily.

1:50pm Dem Bennett has been CALLED the winner in Colorado Senate, a HOLD for the Dems. He leads by 19% with 48% counted. Meanwhile Dem Fetterman’s lead in Pennsylvania Senate narrows to 10% with 32% in, and Dem Barnes is leading in Wisconsin by 2% with 28% in.

1:18pm Dem Warnock has recovered the lead in Georgia Senate by 51.3-46.9 with 64% in.

1:14pm And in Ohio with 44% counted, Rep Vance is now only just behind Dem Ryan for Senate 50.1-49.8. Projection: Vance overtakes Ryan and Reps easily HOLD Ohio Senate.

1:10pm In North Carolina, Rep Budd has overtaken Dem Beasley by 49.2-48.8 with 68% in. Budd will go on to win as Election Day votes now dominate. Projection: Rep HOLD North Carolina Senate.

1:06pm In Georgia, Rep Walker has just overtaken Dem Warnock and leads by 51.5-46.7 with 61% in. Warnock may recover with more counting from urban Georgia.

12:51pm With 51% counted in Georgia, Dem Senator Warnock’s lead narrows to 50-48. Meanwhile, Rep Governor Kemp is leading by 52-47.

12:34pm With 14% counted in New Hampshire, Dem Hassan leads by 61-38.

12:31pm Dems are well ahead currently in Senate contests for Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. But these reflect early votes, and leads will narrow or be overturned once Election Day votes report.

12:16pm In fact there are now three Rep projected House GAINS from the Dems just in Florida.

12:13pm And in more good news for Reps in Florida, they GAIN the fourth House district from the Dems.

12:09pm In Florida, Rep Senator Marco Rubio and Rep Governor Ron DeSantis are projected winners with Rubio leading by 12 points and DeSantis by 16. That’s with 72% counted, and Election Day votes will make Florida even more Rep. Miami Dade county in the south, which voted heavily for Hillary Clinton in 2016, has been won by both Reps.

12:03pm In North Carolina’s Senate contest, the Dem leads by 54-44 with 45% in. But that’s early vote, and Election Day will favour the Reps.

11:53am In Virginia’s 10th House district, the Dem incumbent has a 52.5-47.4 lead over the Rep with 53% in.

11:45am In Georgia’s Senate contest, Dem Warnock leads Rep Walker by 56-42 with 29% in. That lead will narrow as more Election Day votes are counted.

9:45am Wednesday In many US states, voters register as either Dem, Rep or Nonpartisan/Other. Localities in some of these states report Election Day turnout throughout the day. There’s HEAVY Rep turnout that isn’t being matched by the Dems, and is overwhelming Dem early vote leads. This is pointing to an ugly result for the Dems today, with Reps overperforming their polls.

I have a one hour appointment at 10:30am. We’ll see how early results are looking when I return at 11:30am.

Continue reading “US midterm elections live”

Israeli election live

Netanyahu’s bloc ahead and could win a majority in Israel; live commentary from Wednesday morning.

Live Commentary

12:13pm Friday Nearly all votes have now been counted, and Meretz (3.16%) is still below the 3.25% threshold, while Balad has slid to 2.90%. According to Wikipedia, current results would give Netanyahu’s bloc 64 of the 120 Knesset seats.

9:20pm With the count now at 93.0%, Balad had been going backwards and is now at 2.96%, 0.29% below the 3.25% threshold. Meretz is also still below the threshold at 3.15%. But even if Meretz crosses the threshold, Netanyahu will have a majority. It’s time to call it. Projection: Netanyahu’s bloc will win a Knesset majority. That means the era of frequent Israeli elections is likely over, and the next election won’t be held for about four years.

7:52am Count now up to 88.8%, little change in results. If the Joint Arab List had not split into Hadash Ta’al and Balad, the combined total vote for that list may have denied Netanyahu a majority if Meretz had also crossed the threshold. By splitting, they risked Netanyahu winning a majority if one of the new parties didn’t make the threshold, and Balad is unlikely to make it.

6:41am Thursday With 87.6% counted, little change on the previous results, with Meretz (3.19%) and Balad (3.03%) still below the 3.25% threshold. Remaining votes should be counted over the next few days with the final result to be declared next Wednesday.

7:24pm With 84.3% counted, little change with Meretz (3.20%) and Balad (3.05%) still below the 3.25% threshold. On current numbers, a Haaretz update gives Netanyahu’s bloc 65 of the 120 seats. The only realistic hope for the anti-Netanyahu parties is for both Meretz and Balad to cross the threshold.

6:19pm That last batch was left-leaning, with Netanyahu’s bloc down to a combined 48.1%.

6:16pm With 79.8% counted, Meretz is up to 3.23%, just below the 3.25% threshold, while Balad is at 3.07%. Labor has 3.60%, Hadash Ta’al 3.94% and Ra’am 4.25%.

6:07pm It’s not just the parties who are currently below the threshold that is helping Netanyahu; his four parties’ bloc currently has 50.3% of the vote combined.

5:36pm With 71.3% counted in Israel, Ra’am receives a big boost and is up to 3.86%, well above the 3.25% threshold. But Hadash Ta’al, another Arab party, is teetering at 3.33%, while Meretz falls to 3.05% and Balad has 2.79%.

5:07pm The Danish election was also held Tuesday. The left-leaning “Red Bloc” of parties won 90 of the 179 seats, a one seat majority. The right-leaning “Blue Bloc” won 73 seats, and a new centrist party won the remaining 16 seats. The left retains office after winning in June 2019. They will be relieved not to have to depend on the Moderates.

4:33pm With 62.4% counted, the Arab party Hadash Ta’al drops back to 3.38%, Meretz to 3.17%, Balad to 2.75% and Ra’am to 2.47%. It’s looking as if Balad and Ra’am are done for, giving Netanyahu a bigger than expected majority.

3:59pm An update in the Haaretz live blog says that currently Netanyahu’s bloc would win 68 of the 120 Knesset seats. That’s with Meretz, Balad and Ra’am missing the threshold, and I think Meretz will make it on later counting.

3:52pm With 44.6% counted, Labor is up to 3.66% and Meretz to 3.24%, so both will probably clear the threshold. However, Balad has 3.11% and United Arab List (Ra’am) 2.87% – they’re both in serious jeopardy.

2:49pm With 34.6% counted, there are four parties that are just above or just below the 3.25% threshold: Labor (3.27%), the Arab party Balad (3.14%), the United Arab List (3.09%) and the left-wing Meretz (2.67%). Labor and Meretz should gain in later counting, but I’m not sure about the Arab parties.

12:38pm In past Israeli elections, the first votes counted have been skewed towards right-wing parties as Jerusalem reports relatively quickly, and the religious parties do well there. Tel Aviv reports later, and the left do better there.

12:35pm Turnout for the Israeli election was 71.3%. Official results are here, but unhelpfully don’t tell us how much has been counted. With a 71.3% turnout and 6.79 million overall electors, there should be 4.84 million votes. So 627,000 have been counted so far, which is 13.0% of turnout.

7:21am Wednesday: Exit polls give Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc of Likud, Shas, UTJ and Religious Zionists 61-62 of the 120 Knesset seats, enough for a majority. The anti-Netanyahu parties combined have 54-55 and an Arab party that is not aligned with the current government has the remaining four seats. Early exit polls have been wrong before, and we’ll need to wait for actual results.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Israeli election will be held today, after a government formed to keep out former PM Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed in June. The 120 members of the Knesset are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. A majority requires 61 seats.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Wednesday. Exit polls will be released soon after polls close, but the Election Day count is unlikely to be finalized until late Wednesday afternoon AEDT. There will be small additional counting over the next few days.

Right-wing parties that are likely to support Netanyahu are his own Likud, the religious Shas and UTJ, and the far-right Religious Zionists. The final allowed polls were published by Friday; they give these right-wing parties a combined 60-62 Knesset seats, while the current governing parties have 54-56 seats. An Arab party that is not part of the government has the remaining four seats.

Two Arab parties – Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am – are consistently shown as winning four seats, meaning they are just above the 3.25% threshold. If either were to drop below this threshold, they would win no seats and Netanyahu’s bloc would be advantaged and win a majority. The Arab Joint List split into two parties and one of the offshoots is unlikely to beat the threshold.

The biggest loser of this election is likely to be the right-wing Yamina party, which joined the anti-Netanyahu government under party leader and former PM Naftali Bennett. Yamina has joined with Jewish Home, and will run under the Jewish Home name, but is unlikely to surpass the threshold.

The biggest election winner is likely to be the Religious Zionists, which currently hold seven Knesset seats. Polls have them winning 12-15 seats to be the third biggest party behind Likud and the liberal Yesh Atid.

Other recent election results

After losing Sunday’s Brazilian presidential runoff election by 50.9-49.1, far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has not yet conceded defeat. However, some of his key allies have accepted the result. Leftist winner Lula will be sworn in as president on January 1, 2023.

Green Alexander Van der Bellen was easily re-elected Austrian president on October 9 with 56.7% of the vote, avoiding a runoff. The Austrian president is largely a symbolic figurehead.

At the October 3 election in the Canadian province of Quebec, the conservative CAQ won 41.0% of the vote and 90 of the 125 seats under first past the post. Four other parties split the remaining vote, with each winning between 12.9% and 15.4%.

At the October 9 election in the German state of Lower Saxony, the centre-left SPD won 33.4% of the vote (down 3.5%), the conservative CDU 28.1% (down 5.5%), the Greens 14.5% (up 5.8%), the far-right AfD 11.0% (up 4.8%) and the pro-business FDP 4.7% (down 2.8%). As the FDP missed the 5% threshold, the SPD and Greens will have a combined majority of 81 of the 146 seats.

While this result is encouraging for the left in Germany, the combined vote percentage for the current federal governing SPD, Greens and FDP has dropped into the mid 40s from 52.0% at the September 2021 German federal election.

Right-wing governments have taken office in Italy and Sweden after winning elections in September.

Brazilian presidential runoff election live

Lula will probably defeat Bolsonaro today; live commentary from Monday morning. Netanyahu could win a majority in Israel, while US polls stabilise.

Live Commentary

11:28am With virtually all votes counted, Lula wins by 50.9-49.1, a 1.8% margin. Brazilian polls slightly overstated Lula in the runoff, but were much better than in the first round. That first round gave them an opportunity to adjust their sampling to include more Bolsonaro voters.

10:16am With 99.4% reporting, Lula leads by 50.87-49.13, a 1.7% margin. That’s down from the 5.2% margin he won the first round by. In 2018, Bolsonaro won the runoff by a 55.1-44.9 margin.

9:17am With 92% reporting, Lula is winning by 50.6-49.4. Not as much movement to Lula in late counting as there was in the first round.

8:47am Lula has just overtaken Bolsonaro in the live count with 68% in, and will win from here. Projection: Lula has defeated Bolsonaro, and will be Brazil’s next president.

8:38am I believe Lula may be outperforming his first round margins in his own strongholds, while Bolsonaro does well in his. Gap now down to just 50.1-49.9 with 60% reporting.

8:29am Bolsonaro’s lead down to just 50.3-49.7 as nearly 50% have reported.

8:21am With 42% of the overall vote counted, Bolsonaro leads by 50.6-49.4. It took until 46% were counted last time for Bolsonaro’s lead to fall to 2.2%.

8:17am In 2018, Brazil’s most populous states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro both gave Bolsonaro 68-32 margins in the runoff. He’s not getting anywhere near that margin this time in either state.

8:12am With 34% in, Bolsonaro’s margin continues to narrow to under two points, 50.9-49.1.

7:58am With 24% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.3-48.7. He was further ahead at the same stage in the first round count, according to my live blog. In the first round, it took until 70% had been counted for Lula to overtake Bolsonaro.

7:50am With 18.5% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.6-48.4. I believe the current results point to a narrow Lula win when all votes are counted.

7:38am Bolsonaro’s overall lead has narrowed to 52.0-48.0 as 11% have reported.

7:34am With 58% counted in Tocantins, Lula is winning there by 52.5-47.5. In the first round, Lula won Tocantins by 6.4%.

7:28am With 4.4% of overall districts counted, Bolsonaro leads by 53.9-46.1. Early results will very likely be skewed to Bolsonaro.

7:23am 58% now counted in the federal district, and Bolsonaro’s lead reduced to about 59.2-40.8.

7:19am With 24% counted already in the federal district, Bolsonaro is leading there by almost 60-40. In the first round, he won this district by almost 15 points. In the 2018 runoff, he won by 70-30.

7:07am Monday Here is the Guardian’s live results for the runoff. Past elections it would be useful to track results against are the 2022 first round results and the 2018 runoff results by state.

7:48pm In the first round of the Brazilian election, early results were skewed towards Bolsonaro, as his strong areas counted faster than Lula’s. That’s likely to be the case again tomorrow morning.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

At the October 2 first round of the Brazilian presidential election, the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) led the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by a 48.4-43.2 margin. As nobody won over 50%, the contest goes to a runoff today. Lula was president from 2003 to 2010.

Brazil has four time zones, but voting hours are synchronised, so that polls in trailing time zones open and close an hour earlier local time than polls in leading time zones. All polls close at 7am Monday AEDT. As votes are recorded electronically, counting should be fast. There is no pre-poll or postal voting; all votes must be cast on Election Day. Voting is compulsory for those aged between 18 and 70.

Polls for the runoff have narrowed to include more Bolsonaro voters after they understated his first round support. The final six polls, which mostly include some fieldwork conducted after Friday’s debate, gave Lula a one to seven point lead. However, there were two Bolsonaro leads in polls conducted last week.

Even if Lula wins, the legislature is likely to be difficult for him. In my live blog of the first round election, I wrote that right-wing parties won a majority in both chambers of the legislature. Bolsonaro’s Liberal party performed particularly well.

In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.

Israel: Netanyahu’s bloc ahead and could win a majority

The Israeli election will be held Tuesday, after a government formed to keep out former PM Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed in June. The 120 members of the Knesset are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. A majority requires 61 seats.

Right-wing parties that are likely to support Netanyahu are his own Likud, the religious Shas and UTJ, and the far-right Religious Zionists. The final allowed polls were published by Friday; they give these right-wing parties a combined 60-62 Knesset seats, while the current governing parties have 54-56 seats. An Arab party that is not part of the government has the remaining four seats.

Two Arab parties – Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am – are consistently shown as winning four seats, meaning they are just above the 3.25% threshold. If either were to drop below this threshold, they would win no seats and Netanyahu’s bloc would be advantaged and win a majority.

US, UK and Danish polls

I wrote last Monday that Republicans have gained in the polls for the US November 8 midterm elections. Since that article, the FiveThirtyEight forecasts for the House and Senate have stabilised. Democrats now have a 52% chance to hold the Senate (55% last Monday), while Republicans have an 81% chance to gain the House (80% previously).

Rishi Sunak became Britain’s new PM last Tuesday. Polls conducted since then have shown the Conservatives improving markedly from the final polls of Liz Truss, but Labour still holds a massive lead. In six of the seven polls taken since Sunak became PM, Labour led by 24 to 32 points, down from the 27 to 39 point lead in Truss’ final days. The Conservative-leaning Opinium poll gave Labour a 16-point lead, down from 27.

The Danish election will be held Tuesday. All 179 seats are elected by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. The Social Democrats have governed since the left-aligned “Red Bloc” of parties won the June 2019 election. Polls have the Red Bloc leading the Blue Bloc by five to ten points.

Britain’s next PM and Brazilian runoff, Israeli and US midterm elections minus six to 16 days

Rishi Sunak set to win as Boris Johnson withdraws. Lula will probably defeat Bolsonaro in Brazil, Netanyahu could win again, and Republicans gain in the US.

6:52am Tuesday: Rishi Sunak is Britain’s next PM, after Penny Mordaunt conceded shortly before the close of nominations at midnight AEDT last night. He was the only candidate to pass the 100 nominations threshold. There will be no members’ ballot.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The next UK Conservative leader and PM will be decided by a fast-tracked process. Candidates will need at least 100 Conservative MP nominations by 2pm UK time today (midnight AEDT). As there are 356 Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, at most three candidates can reach the required nominations.

If only one candidate reaches the 100 nominations, that candidate is elected Conservative leader and PM. With former PM Boris Johnson withdrawing Sunday night UK time, only former Chancellor Rishi Sunak is likely to pass the 100 nominations required, and there will be no Conservative members’ ballot. That ballot was to be conducted by Friday using online methods.

The Guardian’s tracker of public endorsements from MPs gave Sunak 144 endorsements, Johnson 57 and Penny Mordaunt 24; she was the last eliminated candidate in the previous contest. Johnson claimed he had 102 nominees (including non-public endorsements), but did not continue his campaign even though he would have likely won a members’ vote, as he did not want to be leader of a parliamentary party that had rejected him decisively.

Since the September 23 “horror” budget, Liz Truss’ brief tenure has been marked by dire and worsening polls for the Conservatives. In eight national polls taken since last Sunday, Labour led by between 27 and 39 points. These polls were taken after Truss sacked Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on October 14 and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt.

In May 2021, I wrote for The Conversation that non-university educated whites are shifting to the right. However, a danger for right-wing parties is a perception they want to slash government services – examples are Australian polls after the 2014 budget and US polls during Donald Trump’s first year as president, in which he was attempting to gut Obamacare. We now have another example.

Brazilian presidential runoff: October 30

At the October 2 first round of the Brazilian presidential election, the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) led the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by a 48.4-43.2 margin. As nobody won over 50%, the contest goes to a runoff this Sunday. Lula was president from 2003 to 2010.

Polls for the runoff have narrowed to include more Bolsonaro voters after they understated his first round support. There has been further narrowing in the last week, with Lula ahead by just 52-48 in this poll aggregate; a recent poll gave Bolsonaro a 51-49 lead.

Even if Lula wins, the legislature is likely to be difficult for him. In my live blog of the first round election, I wrote that right-wing parties won a majority in both chambers of the legislature. Bolsonaro’s Liberal party performed particularly well.

In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.

Israel: Netanyahu’s bloc ahead and could win a majority

The Israeli election will be held November 1, after a government formed to keep out former PM Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed in June. The 120 members of the Knesset are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold.

Right-wing parties that are likely to support Netanyahu are his own Likud, the religious Shas and UTJ, and the far-right Religious Zionists. The last four polls give these right-wing parties a combined 59-62 Knesset seats, while the current governing parties have 54-57 seats. An Arab party that is not part of the government has the remaining four seats.

US: Republicans gain and could win both chambers at midterms

I wrote for The Conversation last Thursday that Republicans have gained in the polls for the US November 8 midterm elections. Since that article, the FiveThirtyEight forecasts for the House and Senate have worsened for Democrats.

Democrats now have a 55% chance to hold the Senate (61% last Thursday), while Republicans have an 80% chance to gain the House (75% previously). Republicans have taken a 0.5-point lead in the national House popular vote after trailing by 0.3% last Thursday; this is Republicans’ first lead since early August.

Brazilian first round presidential election live

Live coverage from Monday morning of today’s Brazilian election, which Lula could win outright. Also: UK Labour seizes a huge lead after the budget, US and Israeli polls.

Live Commentary

9:59am Tuesday The final presidential result is Lula over Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2. I think Lula would have won by about 53-47 if Brazil used preferential voting, so he’s still the clear favourite to win the October 30 runoff.

In the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberal party won 99 of the 513 Chamber of Deputies seats (up 66), while Lula’s alliance won 80 seats (up 11). There are many parties represented, but it looks as if right-wing parties have a majority. The Liberals won eight of the 27 Senate seats up for election, and two other right-wing parties won eight seats (there are a total of 81 senators). So both chambers will have right-wing majorities.

12:52pm With 99.5% counted, Lula’s lead hits five points, 48.3-43.3.

12:01pm With 98.5% counted, Lula leads by 48.1-43.5, a 4.6% margin. He will be a heavy favourite to win the October 30 runoff, but Bolsonaro has performed much better than polls expected.

10:48am With 92.6% counted, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 47.4-44.1, a 3.3% margin. The five pre-election polls gave Lula an eight to 16 point first round margin over Bolsonaro. They don’t look good.

10:34am There are big swings against Bolsonaro in the big urban states, like the federal district, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. But his vote is holding up much better in rural states like Amazonas, Para and Tocantis. Bolsonaro won the 2018 runoff by a 55.1-44.9 margin.

10:25am With 82.6% counted, Lula leads by 46.5-44.8, a 1.7% margin.

10:05am With 70% counted, Lula takes the lead by 45.7-45.5.

10am Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 46.0-45.2 with 60.3% reporting. But it looks likely that polls have understated Bolsonaro. He’s likely to lose this round when all votes are counted, but the margin could be close, and the runoff will be a contest. Shades of Trump in the US 2020 election?

9:34am Bolsonaro’s lead keeps shrinking as more votes are counted. He’s down to a 2.2% margin (46.7-44.5) with 46% counted.

9:21am With 35.5% counted, Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 3.5% nationally. 89% has been counted in Espirito Santo, and Bolsonaro leads there by 52-40. In 2018, he won this state by 63.1-36.9

9:11am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro still leads by 47.6-43.6 nationally. But he appears to be underperforming badly in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, both of which he won by 68.0-32.0 in 2018.

9:01am While there’s a big swing against Bolsonaro in the federal district, there doesn’t seem to be in Tocantins. With 65% counted here, Lula is winning by 48.9-45.3. Bolsonaro lost this state in the 2018 runoff 51.0-49.0.

8:51am With 16.2% reporting, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 47.9-43.4 nationally. In the federal district, with over 82% in, his lead is 52-37, down from 70-30 in 2018.

8:21am With 4.9% of the overall vote counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.8-42.1. He’s still winning the federal district 52-36 with 52% in.

8:08am Over 42% has been counted in the federal district, with Bolsonaro winning by 52-36. But in the 2018 runoff, he won the federal district by 70-30.

7:51am With 1.5% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.5-41.6 for Lula. I believe the current results are unrepresentative, and that Lula will improve when more results from the northeastern states report.

7:17am Monday The Guardian has results of the presidential election. So far just 0.14% has been counted

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election occurs today. If nobody wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two first round candidates will be held October 30. The major contenders are the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.

Brazil has four time zones, but voting hours are synchronised, so that polls in trailing time zones open and close an hour earlier local time than polls in leading time zones. All polls close at 7am Monday AEDT (note: not AEST). As votes are recorded electronically, counting should be fast. There is no pre-poll or postal voting; all votes must be cast on election day.

The final five Brazilian polls, mostly taken since Thursday’s debate, have had Lula leading Bolsonaro by eight to 16 points in the first round. If the contest goes to the October 30 runoff, the polls give Lula a nine to 17 point lead. Voting is compulsory for those aged between 18 and 70.

Brazilian polls include undecided. Lula is currently in the high 40s in the first round in most polls, but undecided is at 1-9%. If undecided were excluded, as most polls in Australia do, three of the last five polls would give Lula just over the 50% needed to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.

As well as the presidential election, there are legislative elections today. All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation, and 27 of the 81 senators (one per state) will be elected by first past the post. Many parties are currently represented.

In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.

UK Labour seizes huge lead after ‘horror’ budget

On September 23, new UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered a budget that would greatly reduce taxes to the benefit of the already well-off. Rather than cut spending, the tax cuts would be funded by borrowing. Owing to this borrowing, the UK pound plummeted on the financial markets.

Financial market turmoil continued last week. There have been nine UK national polls taken since Tuesday, and six give Labour leads of 17 to 21 points over the Conservatives, while three give Labour a lead of over 30 points. Prior to the budget, Labour’s lead was high single to low double digits. But the next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

US Democrats’ gains stall, Netanyahu could win again in Israel

The US midterm elections will be held November 8. I wrote for The Conversation Friday that Democratic chances in both houses of Congress have stalled recently, with Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate in the FiveThirtyEight forecaast down from 71% in mid-September to 68% now.

The Israeli election is on November 1, after a government formed to keep out Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed. A religious and right-wing coalition that would be led by Netanyahu’s Likud is currently polling at 59-62 of the 120 Knesset seats in the last four polls, with the current governing parties at a combined 54-57. The Joint Arab List split in two, and one of the new parties is unlikely to make the 3.25% threshold to win seats; this helps Netanyahu.