Live Commentary
9:31am Tuesday In elections to the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberals won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (up 22 since 2022), while the left-wing coalition won 88 seats (up 11). Other parties winning seats appear to be centrist to right-wing. In the Senate, the Liberals won 19 of the 54 seats up for election (up 14), with the left holding its six seats. The Liberals have a total of 29 of the 81 seats, to nine for the left.
1:28pm (Two paragraph entry) With all first round votes counted, Bolsonaro defeated Lula by 47.0-45.2, a 1.9-point margin. Of the remaining votes, 5.1% were for centrist candidates and 2.2% for another right-wing candidate. Lula won’t win the October 25 runoff unless he gains votes directly from Bolsonaro.
Most polls understated F. Bolsonaro, but not as badly as they understated J. Bolsonaro in 2022. The most accurate first round poll (Futura) gave Bolsonaro a two-point lead. That poll gives him a 2.9-point lead in the runoff.
10:53am There has been a clear trend to Lula in late counting, with Bolsonaro’s lead down to 47.6-44.5 with 95% in.
10:13am With 85% counted, F. Bolsonaro leads Lula by 48.5-43.5. In 2022, Lula won the first round over J. Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2.
9:45am With 65% counted, Bolsonaro falls below 50%, but leads Lula by 49.6-42.3. Counting has stalled for a while.
9:14am With 47% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.2-41.6. Bolsonaro probably won’t get a first round majority, but it looks as if he’ll win the first round and be the heavy favourite in the October 25 runoff.
8:40am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.7-41.1. While there remains a small swing to Lula in the federal district, there’s a big swing to Bolsonaro in Tocantins. With 84% counted there, he leads by 50.7-43.1. In 2022, Lula beat J. Bolsonaro in Tocantins by 50.4-44.0 in the first round.
8:05am With 12% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.1-40.7. The federal district is the most complete with 70% counted. If current figures there are accurate, Lula will have a small swing to him there compared with the first round result in 2022.
7:35am With 2% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 49.7-41.8.
6:59am Monday The Guardian has live results. In 2022, initial results favoured Bolsonaro more than the final figures.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 7am AEDT Monday (note, not AEST anymore) for the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil uses staggered polling hours, where polls in a trailing time zone open and close an hour before those in a leading time zone. This means all polls will close at the same time.
Unless one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote today, a runoff between the top two will occur on October 25. The two main candidates are Workers’ Party incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. At the 2022 presidential election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff by 50.9-49.1, ending Bolsonaro’s presidency after one term. Polls had understated Bolsonaro at that election.
Brazilian polls include undecided, so both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are doing better than their current vote shares indicate, with Lula usually ahead in first round polls. The other four listed candidates are in the single digits. With undecided removed, I expect the first round winner (Lula or Bolsonaro) to get at least mid-40s, not far from a majority.
In 12 polls of the likely runoff by different pollsters taken since September 24, Bolsonaro has an average lead of 0.5 points, with a range from a four-point Lula lead to a 5.5-point Bolsonaro lead. Bolsonaro has gained a lead for the runoff since I last wrote about Brazil two weeks ago.
Federal elections to the legislature will also be held today. In the Senate, 54 of the 81 seats will be up for election with two senators elected for each of Brazil’s 27 states using first past the post; the other 27 senators were elected in 2022. All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation using multi-member electorates based on the states.
US and NZ elections updates
US midterm elections occur on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation on September 25 that Donald Trump’s US net approval was at a record low -23.0 in Nate Silver’s aggregate (it’s now -23.5). In Silver’s forecast model, Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot (9.1 points on September 25). They have a 73% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 93% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives (previously 69% and 91% respectively).
The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday that the right-wing parties had a lead over the left-wing parties, with the centrist Opportunity a reasonable chance to gain the balance of power. The Greens surged four points to a record high 16% in a late September Verian poll.
Canadian Quebec provincial election on Tuesday AEDT
Results of the Canadian Quebec provincial election will come out on Tuesday AEDT. The 127 seats are elected by FPTP. At the 2022 Quebec election, the conservative nationalist CAQ won 90 of the 125 seats on 41.0% of the vote, the centre-left Liberals 21 on 14.4%, the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) 11 on 15.4%, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) three on 14.6% and the Conservatives zero on 12.9%.
Analyst Éric Grenier says the polls give the PQ 30.0% of the vote, the Liberals 23.5%, the Conservatives 19.4%, the CAQ 15.0% and QS 10.8%. Seat projections give the PQ a point estimate of 68 seats, the Liberals 36, the Conservatives 16, QS seven and the CAQ zero. If this occurs, the CAQ would be wiped out after winning a big majority in 2022, while the PQ would win a majority from just three seats.
UK by-election in Starmer’s former seat on Thursday
Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras in early September. The by-election for this seat will occur on Thursday. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.
Opportunity party becoming kingmakers could result in a good Labor government being given the ability to do things they otherwise would get savaged by the media for looking ag (introducing a universal income, land tax) but with the threat that if it goes pear shaped NZ ends up one election down the track getting the same reaction that Gillard’s failed minority government gave Australia. A right wing snapback that takes a decade to overcome.
The Greens Political Party here could learn a thing or two from Opportunity.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-ADz7pI0x-vunS03gjEyIg4TkvbNbjxl/view?usp=drivesdk
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wwzoV4iifh7gd01qobkS4yc1rmNAZ8e5/view?usp=drivesdk
I did a simulation of the 2026 Brazillian Presidential Election based on opinion polling.
The Greens haven’t helped them in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election with some of their decision as their national conference this weekend.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/oct/04/green-party-votes-adopt-policy-zionism-racism
“The Greens have formally adopted a policy that equates Zionism with racism and calls for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state, a move opposed by the bulk of the party’s MPs and which is expected to face legal challenge.”
The count will take a while as there are 15 candidates. Will be interesting to see who does better out of Reform and Restore.
As to QUEBEC there was some rather strange campaigning by the PQ on abolishing the monarchy and ignoring the constitutional role of the Lieutenant General within Quebec.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/parti-quebecois-monarchy-lieutenant-governor-fact-check-9.7363970
What in the actual fuck?
I am largely sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinian people and have a very negative view of the present Israeli leadership, but that is absolute madness.
The only viable answer to this violent quagmire is a genuine two-state solution. Anybody arguing for anything different is just asking for the bloodshed to continue.
Damn. Over that quickly.
I was preparing for weeks of counting, not every damn vote on the night. Lmfao
Flavio Bolsanaro looks, sounds …and probably is …a carbon copy of his father.
He is certain to be the favourite in the run-off – and I understand Brazilians like backing a winner when they vote.
If elected, Bolsanaro snr will no doubt be freed PDQ and Lula back in custody.
Looks like another incumbent is gonna go down to economic discontent.
Probably going be 2022 all over again in being very close. The Bolsonaro led on Lula has been reduced from 3% to 2% as more of the Lula’s strongholds in the north east (home to the Black population) being counted.
I fear it might be closer to the 2018 result !!
@PaulTu, the combined far-right vote is just under 49.5% and I wouldn’t compare 2026 to 2018 as Bolsonaro’s 2018 vote was inflated because he was stabbed, PT was in a massive corruption scandal, Lula was disqualified as he was going on trial for corruption and the replacement PT Candidate Fernando Haddad was completely horrible in campaigning.
When are they going to count the Chamber of Deputies and Federal Senate votes?
Good wins for Bolsonaro’s side in the portion of Senate seats up for grabs, and in the House of Reps or whatever they call it.
Much more fragmented than e.g. USA but clearly leaves the right in one of their strongest positions in a long time.
Also won 5 governorships I believe.
NZ seems a real stalemate with the smaller parties on both sides gaining at the expense of the two larger parties as the campaign goes on.
Thanks for the post Adrian.
CBC is currently projecting a minority PQ government.with a projected 59 seats (64 required for majority)
CAQ almost wiped out.