Two federal polls that reported this week:
• The monthly Essential Research poll recorded a recovery for Labor after a particularly bad result last time, up three on the primary vote to 29%, with the Coalition down four to 22%, One Nation up two to 25%, the Greens down one to 12% and undecided up one to 6%. Labor edged into a 48-46 lead over the Coalition on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, after the Coalition led 50-45 last time. Anthony Albanese was up two on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor was down one to 31% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The full report features extensive further questions on immigration (including a finding that general attitudes have improved since April, with 46% viewing it as generally positive and 39% as generally negative, up five and down six respectively), one on gambling, and another on (indirectly) Ed Sheeran. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1008.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll breaks from the pollster’s recent practice in encompassing a fortnight of surveying, and presumably half consists of the result that was published last week, with an overall sample of 2569. The movements on last week’s result are duly more modest than Morgan’s recent form, which was presumably the idea: Labor up one to 26%, One Nation steady on 25.5%, the Coalition up one to 22.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor is out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and steady on 52-48 on previous election flows. With its expanded sample, the release linked to above also treats us to full voting intention breakdowns from the mainland states.
“Labor was racist 70 years ago so it’s okay that Pauline is racist now” is not a winning argument.
MAGA Mike Johnson still thinks the GOP will win the House. The GOP’s internal polling, however, points to a defeat:
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/03/politics/republicans-congress-control-midterms
Where’s George Sorus when you need him? Oh, I see the Sorus family has donated $US102 million to the Dems. Another $200m should do it.
The underlying foundations upon which a justification for the existence of a relatively very recent invasion of another groups lands and interacting structures which were subsequently decimated by a marauding mob of convict peasants and their gaolers, stems from such an outlandishly simplistic racist rationale.
It hardly needs suggesting that the lack of unity, despair and dissatisfaction that exists in modern day Australia is.built from such nonsensical racist claptrap.
You are a pathetic little twerp hiding behind a cowardly facade of bullshit to justify your life’s work.
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 10:34 pm
Where did I say Hanson being racist now is OK. The thread wasn’t even about One Nation or Hanson.
goll says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 10:40 pm
You write utter garbage. I have written nothing racist. Just because you don’t like the facts doesn’t make the facts or me a racist.
Mavis says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 10:40 pm
Funny how multi-million dollar donations are undemocratic, except when they go to the left.
I guess we get the Redbridge poll tomorrow then, followed with the usual Roy Morgan on Monday.
Labor is on 60% of the 2PP vote right now on the state level in New South Wales.
Holy shit.
I didn’t think I would see the day that it would actually happen.
The ABC have this article:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-04/iran-war-electrification-climate-goals/107213828
It’s OK, although there are some curious omissions. For example, it starts off by stating:
And follows up with:
Both statements are correct. However, I’m not sure why the following was not included:
https://www.iea.org/news/electrification-takes-centre-stage-as-hormuz-shock-spurs-countries-to-seek-to-enhance-energy-security
It also correctly states that:
They include a graph to back this up. Unfortunately, they use the wrong metric – capacity (GW), which shows that ~20% of new capacity was fossil. Capacity is not generation (TWh). They should have used this graph which shows fossil generation going backwards:
One bright spot of the article was the inclusion of Jan Rosenow who has this excellent site:
https://janrosenow.substack.com/
The story that Steve linked yesterday now has some footage:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-03/tornado-tears-through-ulladulla-in-nsw-south-coast/107225262
That was some storm last night! But it moved away very quickly.
NYT/Siena Senate polling.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/us/senate-polls-texas-kansas-ohio-alaska-iowa.html
The energy revolution continues to travel its obviously needed direction despite the best efforts of the politicians and business community attempting to extract their fossilized monies from the world’s largest environmental threat.
Th only question that remains is whether the damage caused by the fossil interests has caused irreparable damage and how will the earth adjust.
Probably more angst and fighting between both between international communities and within communities.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Ukraine will step up strikes on Russian refineries in response to Moscow’s aerial terror: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/03/8056324/
US and Russia are negotiating multibillion-dollar deal on Lukoil assets: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/03/8056300/
Russian Billionaires Fund 1% of State Budget in ‘Voluntary’ War Levy: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/86036
Russia rehearses invasion and occupation of Central Asian country during military exercises: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/03/8056251/
Brazil’s Federal Police and ABIN warn of possible US Coup: https://paydayreport.com/brazils-federal-police-and-abin-warn-of-possible-us-coup/
Half of UK wants to rejoin EU and backing it could drive up Labour vote, megapoll finds: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/half-want-to-rejoin-eu-and-backing-it-could-drive-up-labour-vote-megapoll-finds
Vile Image Emerges of New White House Press Aid: https://www.thedailybeast.com/vile-image-emerges-of-new-white-house-press-aide-beni-rae-harmony/
Trump Expresses Sympathy for Accused Cornell Seven Rapists: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-expresses-sympathy-for-accused-cornell-seven-rapists/
New Fox Poll—a Disaster for Trump—Rattles Fox Anchors: “Wake Up!: https://newrepublic.com/article/216173/new-fox-poll-a-disaster-trump-rattles-fox-anchors-wake-up
Trump promises ‘nearly $100’ to seniors 30 days before Election Day: https://www.ms.now/news/trump-seniors-cash-medicare-midterm-election
Map Shows Trump’s Approval Rating in Every State 1 Month Until Midterms: https://www.newsweek.com/map-trump-approval-rating-every-state-one-month-until-midterms-12518724
Ted Cruz blasts JD Vance as ‘insecure,’ says he’s focused on helping GOP win midterms: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/03/ted-cruz-blasts-jd-vance-as-insecure-says-hes-focused-on-helping-gop-win-midterms-01106033
Trump urges calls to Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton in push for permanent daylight saving time: https://apnews.com/article/trump-tom-cotton-daylight-saving-time-cellphone-4c92c5171df81d0bb674a831fad49bc9
Tennessee’s prisons chief is resigning after failed execution of Christa Pike: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/03/us/christa-pike-tennessee-prisons-chief-governor
ven @ 225pm – Re: Ancient Egyptians.
The bust of Nefertiti wasn’t painted brown, through artistic licence, nor were the people depicted from every level of society in the burial tombs of the Pharaonic Period.
It is believed that the closest modern ethnographic group to that of the Pharaonic Period is the Egyptian Coptic Christians.
Centuries of invasions from both Africa and Asia BCE may have produced significant variety to the genotype of the ancient Egyptians.
The Pharaohs, themselves, through their many concubines and wives, many of whom were arranged for treaty purposes did not pass on a completely ‘Pharaonic’ bloodline.
The last ruling dynasty, the Macedonian based Ptolemy line kept to the family.
However, I believe, that it would be unlikely that anyone would still retain a pure Pharaonic bloodline dating back over 2.000 years.
I’m sure that someone here with a greater knowledge of genealogy and ethnicity could supply further information regarding this matter.
They said you’d never get anywhere
Well, they don’t care and it’s just not fair
That you know, and I know better
GO THE KNIGHTS!
Shame about the colour, but I’m glad that Brisbane have elevated the Eastern Bin Chicken to it’s rightful position in the Olympic Emblem.
Hegseth calls US-built nuclear submarines the ‘apex predator’ of the seas. But are they right for Australia?: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/oct/04/hegseth-apex-predator-nuclear-submarines-right-for-australia-aukus-ntwnfb
Ben McKay discusses the Greens’ leadership stoush, FWIW. A puff piece, IMO.
The ending posits that the Greens’ leaders don’t matter to Greens supporters because the latter are values-based supporters. There are assertions in the body of the article by people who assert the opposite. My view is that that is neither is supported by evidence.
https://citynews.com.au/2026/solid-and-safe-why-the-greens-chose-shoebridge/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Simon Kuestenmacher
@simongerman600
Показване на превод
In the US data centres are booming while all other private construction is shrinking. HT @SteveRattner
23:01 · 30.09.2026 г.
·
65,2 хил.
Показвания
https://x.com/simongerman600/status/2105281971056201814?lang=bg
can someone post the stunning graph?
FMD, the Guardian is now platforming Varoufakis. This is the economic klutz who the SYRIZANs invited to bugger off from their Government the only time he had a real world opportunity to fuck things up.
Which he duly did.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/oct/04/yanis-varoufakis-australia-interest-rate-rise
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 8:16 am
Ben McKay discusses the Greens’ leadership stoush, FWIW. A puff piece, IMO.
The ending posits that the Greens’ leaders don’t matter to Greens supporters because the latter are values-based supporters. There are assertions in the body of the article by people who assert the opposite. My view is that that is neither is supported by evidence.
https://citynews.com.au/2026/solid-and-safe-why-the-greens-chose-shoebridge/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
___________________
Yes, largely party insiders talking themselves up.
Also, “redistributive taxes attracting One Nation voters” – yes, just like changes to superannuation taxes, negative gearing and CGT changes caused One Nation voters to flock to Labor. Im sure those same voters will love the Greens plan to take away their current negative gearing on top of that.
Don’t you think with ‘apex predators’ like Trump and Hegseth at the helm of US regime and Putin at Russian regime and pointing more of the same in near to medium future, it is better for every nation to have nuclear weapon
UK Voting Intention Via @OpiniumResearch , 30 Sep – 2 Oct. Changes w/ 23-25 Sep :
LAB: 30% (+2)
RFM: 25% (+1)
CON: 17% (=)
GRN: 11% (+1)
LDM: 9% (-1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Ven says:
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 8:26 am
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 8:05 am
Hegseth calls US-built nuclear submarines the ‘apex predator’ of the seas. But are they right for Australia?: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/oct/04/hegseth-apex-predator-nuclear-submarines-right-for-australia-aukus-ntwnfb
Don’t you think with ‘apex predators’ like Trump and Hegseth at the helm of US regime and Putin at Russian regime and pointing more of the same in near to medium future, it is better for every nation to have nuclear weapon
_________________________________
Any article that is comparing the through-life cost of AUKUS verses the specific construction cost of the Canadian build is not a credible piece of journalism.
Besides, the Canadian government is going to have a fun time explaining why it is buying from the new Nazi party in an election or two
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/20/europe/berlin-mecklenburg-vorpommern-election-afd-intl
Re Ven @8:17
Morning all. First question from an ignorant Brisbane Lions fan to any loyal Knights supporters, what does “Better than Lego” mean?
Adelaide media is no help in answering this question 🙂
Socrates @ 0909
Yes I also am curious about the t-shirt and question. I’ve asked a few LEGO fixated colleagues but they too are stumped for an answer.
Part 3 of Sarah Martin’s excellent deep dive into One Nation. This series is a must listen.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2026/sep/28/the-populist-money-nation-episode-3-podcast-ntwnfb
It’s just so disheartening that many are falling for this money making scam.
It’s actually embarrassing.
I’m not a rl fan but even I know that’s a quote from Matty Johns in 1997.
Matthew Johns likened the first premiership win by Newcastle to being better than Lego when asked by a reporter. Basically seeing the win through the eyes of a little kid.
We’re partnering and buying from an authoritarian regime that materially supports ethnic cleansing and is headed by a leader that is a multi-time bankrupt and convicted of sexual assault.
Thanks re Lego.
HH thanks for the international roundup. Good to see UK finally coming to their senses about Brexit.
I can hardly blame Ukraine for defending themselves but this current strategy will do world oil prices no favours in the next few months.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/03/8056324/
Neatly, this will harm both Putin and Trump’s interests politically. Two birds with the one drone.
Richard Dennis – So what’s a new leader of Australia’s balance-of-power party to do?
https://thepoint.com.au/opinions/261002-so-whats-a-new-leader-of-australias-balance-of-power-party-to-do
“The Greens’ recent leadership change from Larissa Waters to David Shoebridge was both rapid and polite. But while the change might have come as a surprise, what is more predictable is the hand wringing from much of the commentariat and the Prime Minister about whether the Greens should be ‘populist’ or ‘pragmatic’, and whether they should act like a ‘party of government’ or a ‘party of protest’.
:::
Obviously, Anthony Albanese would like the Greens to hand those 10 votes over for free, and obviously both the Greens elected representatives and their voters want them to extract a more progressive price. And that’s where David Shoebridge’s job becomes so interesting.
:::
The next step is to avoid the banal binaries of ‘principle vs pragmatism’ and ‘protest vs progress’ and instead focus entirely on showing voters that what really matters to them is what also matters to your party. To be clear, that approach is not easy or uncontroversial, but it is much better than taking advice from newspaper columnists who will never vote for you, working for newspapers whose readerships are perhaps the only thing falling faster than the major parties’ primary vote.
:::
While no one will blame the Opposition for being oppositional, and no one will blame Pauline Hanson for leading a protest party, the Greens, like the Democrats before them, will come under enormous pressure to do little more than tweak and amend the legislation that this Labor Government can’t talk the Coalition into passing.
Being in the balance of power when Anthony Albanese’s Labor Government is trying to be more progressive than Angus Taylor’s Coalition can stomach, is a mixed blessing for the Greens.
Such relevance forces the media to reluctantly pay at least some attention to them while providing them with a unique opportunity to show voters what their principles and priorities really are.
:::
Only time will tell whether Albanese can crush the progressive ambition out of the Greens, under the weight of other people’s expectations of their pragmatism, or whether Shoebridge can use the Greens’ ability to demand more from Labor to show voters that we, as a nation, are only ever just a day away from voting for a gas export tax, or free dental care.
One thing is for sure: these days, even the media have to admit that who you vote for really matters.”
I would think the Greens would utilise the option of abstaining on votes more often and being clearer on why they’re abstaining.
An example of why we can’t have nice things in Victoria.
Background:
Long term community advocacy to reinstate a direct Mildura to Adelaide coach service (the last service having closed in 2021 due to COVID and border lockdowns). Media coverage in the local paper and radio is strong and a local Facebook group established.
New beginnings and hope:
A person from Adelaide with connections in the area undertakes extensive consultation about the potential for a direct service commencing late 2026. Lots of excitement and discussion.
Announcement:
A new twice weekly service commencing from Monday 12.10 will operate between Mildura and Adelaide via Renmark. Lots of coverage across traditional media and socials. I’m booked on the inaugural service from the City of Churches at 0900 Monday 12.10 to Mildura.
Feedback:
The local socials light up about the cost of a one way ticket… $135 which yes is expensive but cheaper than driving or flying via Melbourne to Adelaide. The operator of the new service has made it crystal cleat that they have received zero support from both the Vic and SA state governments in terms of subsidies.
So the usual negative nancies and moaners here in Mildura complain, bitch and moan about the cost but also demand a service (but are unwilling to pay).
Unbelieveable. The sense of entitlement and ‘what about ME!’ here is incredible. I thought Melbourne was pretty bad but up here… hmmm…. Lots of ON conflutes in front yards. The forthcoming state election campaign will be brutal.
I still get pulled up in the street with people demanding in a screeching “why are you here! You’re from Melbourne. WTF are you doing here”
My quiet response is: “To save you from yourself. Enjoy your day”
What’s the new greens political party leader to do? Whatever his boss Vladimir Putin tells him to do ofc
Steven.in.mildura
Never get between an Australian and a bucket of government money
On the submarine article Bizzcan is right. You can’t compare the cost of buying/building one sub class with the total cost of buying, operating and maintaining another. Not apples with apples. So you can’t say for the cost of 8 SSNs under AUKUS we could get 20 SSKs.
The real total cost of the Canadian 12 SSK project is around $160 billion, not $30 billion. See https://quwa.org/north-america/canada/canada-selects-the-type-212cd-what-the-86-billion-industrial-package-actually-involves/
That being said, the total cost of AUKUS is not $368 billion. That is just the cost to 2055, including infrastructure, sub construction and operations up to then. Beyond then we would still have at least 30 more years of operation, maintenance and disposal. Total cost of AUKUS is probably >$500 billion.
https://www.pbo.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-05/The%20cost%20of%20nuclear%20submarines%20PDF.pdf
Sub maintenance over 30 years is typically 1 1/2 to 2 times the construction cost. So if a sub costs $2 billion to buy or build, the total program cost is $5 billion to $6 billion.
The total life cycle cost of the cancelled French SSK (diesel) sub project was $220 billion, not the $50 billion construction cost. The Naval contract was $35 billion. The rest of the construction cost was for the combat system by Lockheed Martin ((>$10 billion) and weapons.
There was a lot of (deliberate?) switching between construction, total, real$ and inflation adjusted costs in quoting the French sub contract cost, which gave the false impression that it was over budget when cancelled. It was not. Mission accomplished for Scomo.
I’m convinced that Gen X has largely been brainwashed and poisoned by deliberately engineered ‘anti-social’ social media algorithms.
It’s insidious.
Abbott’s NBN hit job = Scomo’s French sub hit job.
Same game plan. The question is who is directing the play?
Zoe Daniel – Australia’s wealth gap is growing and so is the anger over it. How do we fix this absolutely hopeless state of affairs?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/oct/04/australia-government-cost-of-living-wealth-gap
Lego isn’t very exciting.
So it’s not Rugby, it’s Rugby League.
Rugby must mean Union. I think.
My sister lives in Balmain. So Tigers. They seem an affluent area.
Further on subs, the operation and maintenance cost arguments apply to all sub options for Australia, diesel (SSK) and nuclear (SSN).
AUKUS still faces many costs and risks in respect of maintenance costs. It requires Australia to maintain 2, possibly 3 sub classes at the same time, each from different nations with separate supply chains. That means different spare parts, infrastructure, crew training, maintenance worker training, simulators etc.
IMO in terms of delivery risks, AUKUS remains an insane plan, especially the very high risk UK component.
Isn’t Newcastle terrible for Climate Change with all that coal? Shouldn’t we be hoping the city dies out?
Rex Douglas @ #790 Sunday, October 4th, 2026 – 9:52 am
it crosses all generations, generations are just made up of humans, and humans come with all the same built in psychological triggers and weaknesses.
Dio
“Rugby” is literally the shibboleth in the Northern states. To use it in the manner you did immediately marks you as a foreigner.
Balmain was the great working class slum – Neville Wran often used his Balmain origins for working class cred but it is now heavily gentrified. You won’t get harbourside for under $15M
Grandson went to sleep in the car so I stayed while rest of party want to event, and want to sleep next to him, after a while the car went ballistic informing all there was sleeping child in the car.
Nanny state, pfft. Nanny car.
What I didn’t know was you could touch the screen to calm the car down. You live and you learn I suppose.
Newcastle lost it’s steel industry 26 years ago and is rapidly losing its power generators but remains the largest coal exporting port in the World. Coal from Wallsend (where I grew up and where yesterday’s accident occurred) was the 19th C standard for high thermal power and low sulphur.
Sam Maiden not a fan of Larissa Waters at all, quite a brutal attack on Insiders this morning. Very unfair imo
Also discussed the history between Mehreen Faruqi and Lee Rhiannon with David Shoebridge being on Team Rhiannon at the time. For what it’s worth, not a lot imo
Worth noting that Ukraine wasn’t mentioned at all in the discussion around the Greens leadership change
I found this interesting from the article BW posted
“The latest quarterly Newspoll review included heartening news for the Greens: the party is one point behind Labor among those younger than 35 and one point ahead of the coalition in SA.
Kos Samaras, director at pollsters RedBridge, says the key ingredient for a Greens’ surge is time.
“Thirty-five per cent of gen Z report to us voting Green, irrespective of geography, which is not what we saw with millennials when they were in their 20s,” he says.
“Millennials are still voting for the Greens in the same number they were when they were in their 20s, which is about high teens.” ”
It was confirmed we’ll get a poll in the AFR tomorrow (tonight)