Two federal polls that reported this week:
• The monthly Essential Research poll recorded a recovery for Labor after a particularly bad result last time, up three on the primary vote to 29%, with the Coalition down four to 22%, One Nation up two to 25%, the Greens down one to 12% and undecided up one to 6%. Labor edged into a 48-46 lead over the Coalition on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, after the Coalition led 50-45 last time. Anthony Albanese was up two on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor was down one to 31% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The full report features extensive further questions on immigration (including a finding that general attitudes have improved since April, with 46% viewing it as generally positive and 39% as generally negative, up five and down six respectively), one on gambling, and another on (indirectly) Ed Sheeran. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1008.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll breaks from the pollster’s recent practice in encompassing a fortnight of surveying, and presumably half consists of the result that was published last week, with an overall sample of 2569. The movements on last week’s result are duly more modest than Morgan’s recent form, which was presumably the idea: Labor up one to 26%, One Nation steady on 25.5%, the Coalition up one to 22.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor is out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and steady on 52-48 on previous election flows. With its expanded sample, the release linked to above also treats us to full voting intention breakdowns from the mainland states.
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:05 pm
Upnorth says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:00 pm
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7:51 pm
Upnorth
Greetings. I have been following the terrible Bangkok flooding and am pleased that you are well.
中华人民共和国
All good for me and the family BW. Been helping some friends who are still flooded after a week. Water about a metre in their house and hasn’t shifted. Our Stray Dog shelter. fortunately is safe, but food is in scare supply.
The worry is there is more rain forecast next week and lots coming down the Chao Phraya. My friends up at Kanchanaburi are marooned and the Kwai Noi has broken its banks in several spots.
I think you guys better prepare for a summer of extremes. This El Nino will do strange things to the weather.
It may do. It is a matter of probabilities rather than certainties as I understand it.
Dad was at Kanchanaburi, I believe. Guest of the Emperor. I think it may have been there that he was bombed for the second time during the war. The first time was by the Japanese in Java. The second was by the Americans. He reckoned that the Americans were better at it.
中华人民共和国
My friends come from the Ban Pong/Tha Maka end of Kanchanaburi. Ban Pong was, at the start of the war, the major terminus for the rail line from Bangkok. From Ban Pong the Japanese drove the line, using your dad and thousands (mostly Asians) like him up the Kwai Noi and into Burma. It was bombed heavily by the Americans to disrupt Japanese supply lines.
I have told you before of their old Matriarch who still recalls “farangs” (white men) swimming naked in the river and her dad smuggling water and medicine to prisoners. She is now very frail and unfortunately had to leave her home due these floods. She will be back though I am sure.
They certainly lost. I can tell you how. I have seen the notches on the rifle stock. Visited the sites were men, women and children were slaughtered and their bodies burned on evidence-hiding pyres.
I can tell you why as well. It was a necessary precondition for stealing a continent.
In terms of the framing, one interesting thing is that some variation of the Indigenous economy worked for something like sixty thousand years. It was a sustaining, sustained and sustainable civilization. Apparently.
At my most optimistic I still give ours well less than a thousand years. Our superior civilization’s hedonistic consumerism is eating the place alive.
Luigi Smith says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7:45 pm
Sure – they have cost millions hundreds of thousands of dollars. That’s going to flow through to voters in time.
There’s no evidence to support that claim.
Good to see Upnorth back, Gday cobber hope you hang around for the Vic election.
The ON ‘rally’ or policy launch is a bit yeah nah, there is something in it that I can see appeals but so far, an this from a cynic, more police, airport link, melton electrification, all for Melbourne again, whats in it for the regions, or are ON taking us local yokels for granted just like the Nationals.
Somewhere I saw a ON plan for passenger rail back to Mildura – a reasonable, achievable and much needed thing but nothing today.
FUBARsays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:12 pm
Nice try.
For some reason, despite their advanced civilisation, they lost. Can’t work out why.
——————–
They probably lost because they weren’t racist pieces of shit.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:19 pm
“Civilization” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
civilization
/ˌsɪvəlʌɪˈzeɪʃn/
A civilization is a complex human society that features advanced social organization, urban centers, a ruling government, and a written language.
Strange Fruit says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:22 pm
Racism doesn’t generally come up in technical discussions of combat power.
Fubar, I wrote in the future tense.
Genuinely funny without the slightest notion of why, apparently. What is civilized about slaughtering innocent men women and children and doing so repeatedly for a century and a half?
Writing reports about it makes it civilized?
Arranging governance for the slaughter effort?
Building urban centers on the bodies?
Luigi Smith says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:29 pm
Who’s modelling did you base your claim on?
Fubar still pining for his au pairs.
FUBARsays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:26 pm
Racism doesn’t generally come up in technical discussions of combat power.
————–
Do you have any modelling to support that claim?
Boerwarsays:
Genuinely funny without the slightest notion of why, apparently. What is civilized about slaughtering innocent men women and children and doing so repeatedly for a century and a half?
___________
Just his usual racist schtick against Indigenous Australians.
It makes a welcome change from Shoebridge, I suppose:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/oct/03/one-nation-victoria-campaign-launch-abolish-first-nations-treaty-legalise-pepper-spray-ntwnfb
Fubar, I appreciate that my understanding is a bit dated, but one of the elements of combat power in my day was morale. An aspect of that can be race or nationality and how it’s perceived by opposing forces.
Look to the differences in the results achieved by Australian and US ground forces in Vietnam. The Gurkhas at Monte Cassino is a classic study. And there will be PhDs written about North Koreans in Ukraine.
OneNation can GAGF trying to appropriate Ned Kelly – there is nothing in their imported MAGA slogans which have anything to do with the Australia of the 1800s.
Redgum wrote this in memory of Ned Kelly..
https://youtu.be/x6SllcxLqNw?si=NvWUdGGFK-Fn7tAr
Boerwar
Are you arguing that today’s generation should feel responsible for what happened to the aborigines when the British first arrived and if so do you include yourself in that?
sprocket_says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:49 pm
OneNation can GAGF trying to appropriate Ned Kelly – there is nothing in their imported MAGA slogans which have anything to do with the Australia of the 1800s.
_______________
Well he was charged with assaulting a Chinese man named Ah Fook.
sprocket_says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:49 pm
Redgum wrote this in memory of Ned Kelly..
_______________________
Redgum covered it. They didn’t write it.
Have ON got a business case so that their extravagantly expensive new rural railways will make a profit?
ABC: “The party would scrap the proposed Suburban Rail Loop and Treaty, while increasing penalties for violent young offenders if elected”
When did the Suburban Rail Loop become the Suburban Rail Loop and Treaty?
“A small group of protesters was seen outside the One Nation event on Saturday, with about two dozen people holding signs and banners claiming that the party was racist.”
Claiming? How is it NOT racist? It’s founded by one of the most virulent racists in Australian political history and has continually espoused racist policy.
Lift your game ABC.
Messina Poll in UK on backing for UnBrexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/half-want-to-rejoin-eu-and-backing-it-could-drive-up-labour-vote-megapoll-finds
Nuclear armageddon would make a welcome change from Shoebridge.
Pauline is going to turn Australia’s most progressive state into a police state worthy of Bjelke-Peterson.
——————
One Nation has launched its Victorian election campaign, vowing to legalise the personal use of pepper spray, abolish the state’s treaty with Indigenous people, and scrap payroll tax in regional Victoria.
The Herald Sun reported that Northern Metropolitan candidate and creator of the party’s Please Explain Cartoon, Mark Nicholson, vowed at the launch that if One Nation won the election, former premiers Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan would be “in prison by Christmas”
Pickering:
“You make that happen by taking a pragmatic approach, not an expensive one, to ensuring we get more police on the streets, get our empty stations manned and ensure bail laws and sentences are fitting with the crimes.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/oct/03/one-nation-victoria-campaign-launch-abolish-first-nations-treaty-legalise-pepper-spray-ntwnfb
FUBAR:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:06 pm
The Kelly gang were criminals, whereas the miners involved in the Eureka Stockade were attempting to eke out a living under oppressive conditions, such as being forced to pay a licence fee of 30 shillings a month while being denied the franchise and the right to buy land, and those who couldn’t produce a licence risked being put in chains.
The uprising resulted in sweeping changes, and the leader, Peter Lalor, ended up in the Vic Parliament. Comparing the Kelly gang to the lot of the miners is misleading & specious. Granted, some of the soldiers and
police were killed in the melee, but 22 miners also lost their lives. The Eureka Stockade is seen by some historians as ‘the foundation of Australian democracy’.
If unions and Labor are ‘happy with the Flag of the Eureka Stockade ‘, so be it. It was a fundamental change to Australian society, and a clear warning to the powers that be that you can’t treat workers like second-class citizens. But conservatives, such as Howard, kept trying with it on
with, for instance, WorkChoices, which was widely condemned as ‘it shifted power heavily toward employers and stripped away foundational workplace protections for Australian employees.’
The Eureka Stockade was more an embryonic political movement than it was a criminal enterprise such as the Kelly gang.
I was arguing that FUBAR’s notion of what constitutes ‘civilization’ is wrong.
Horse thieves never prosper.
Fubar, re the modelling: have a read of this, https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/latest-release
The latest ABS data indicates a broad downturn in all new mortgage approvals. That’s consistent with the discussion here tonight about the downturn in auction clearance rates, however, the downturn varies greatly depending on the type of borrower.
While the total number of new loan commitments for dwellings fell 5.4% in the June quarter, there is a marked difference between loans for investors, all owner-occupiers and first home buyers.
* The number of new investor loan commitments for dwellings fell 8.6% in the quarter,
* Those for new owner occupier loan commitments for dwellings fell 3.3% in the quarter.
* The number of new owner occupier first home buyer loan commitments for dwellings fell 2.9% in the quarter.
In summary, investor loans are falling at three times the rate of first home owner loans. This seems to be consistent with Treasury’s modelled forecast at the time of the Budget, albeit the broader downturn has perhaps emphasised differences.
As a non-rugby person, who should barrack for tomorrow? I love the spectacle of the grand final.
Which one are the good guys-cool kids?
Desi was from Kelly country.
I assume that someone, perhaps a ghost writer, will mine the archives and make the right connections.
Fair enough Boerwar. I came late to the party.
I see that Dio is trying to start an intra-Bludger barney.
I am going to bed now and in an hour’s time.
Good night, all. I wish you sweet dreams.
good night sweet prince.
Diogenes:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 9:03 pm
The Roosters are favoured to win, but you can’t count the Knights out.
‘Bookmakers have priced the Roosters at around $1.42 to win, with experts tipping them by an average margin of about 8 points, while the Knights are outsiders at $2.85.’
Today’s vehicular incident might give the Knights more impetus to win.
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:22 pm
Good to see Upnorth back, Gday cobber hope you hang around for the Vic election.
The ON ‘rally’ or policy launch is a bit yeah nah, there is something in it that I can see appeals but so far, an this from a cynic, more police, airport link, melton electrification, all for Melbourne again, whats in it for the regions, or are ON taking us local yokels for granted just like the Nationals.
Somewhere I saw a ON plan for passenger rail back to Mildura – a reasonable, achievable and much needed thing but nothing today.
中华人民共和国
Hey mate. I will try and poke my nose in a bit more. Been busy up in the Middle Kingdom and Mongolia and even a stint in the Cayman Islands (there are a few here who gave sage advice on that one). One Nation rallies are never much chop. I do fear though that they will gain some traction. Hope you are well.
中华人民共和国
Diogenessays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 9:03 pm
As a non-rugby person, who should barrack for tomorrow? I love the spectacle of the grand final.
Which one are the good guys-cool kids?
Dio for what it’s worth, Easts “The Chooks”, are hated almost universally in the Rugby League community. They represent the silver toff well to do’s, that the Tories “used” to take for granted. Newcastle have a more a working persons team base. I for one hope the Knights get up, but I fear their Grand Final was played last weekend against OC’s beloved Panfers.
There is no Rugby Grand Final tomorrow. There is a Rugby League grand final.
“Which one are the good guys-cool kids?”
Newcastle Knights are a working class team. Sydney Roosters (nee Eastern Suburbs) are the upper class (as upper class as Rugby League can get) team for Bondi rich kids.
Diogenessays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 9:03 pm
As a non-rugby person, who should barrack for tomorrow? I love the spectacle of the grand final.
Which one are the good guys-cool kids?
—————-
A good start would be to not call it rugby, but who to support depends on whether you’re a working class man or a city boy toff.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 9:00 pm
It’s not my notion. It’s a formal definition by people far better qualified and probably much smarter than me.
The chutzpah of those in the left making demeaning statements about racism of Australians in previous centuries is off the charts. The Australian Labor Party and Unions were as racist as they come – ever heard of the White Australia Policy? John Curtin was a huge racist and sought political power based upon it. The US Democratic Party is the party of US Slavery.
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 9:14 pm
There is no Rugby Grand Final tomorrow. There is a Rugby League grand final.
“Which one are the good guys-cool kids?”
Newcastle Knights are a working class team. Sydney Roosters (nee Eastern Suburbs) are the upper class (as upper class as Rugby League can get) team for Bondi rich kids.
中华人民共和国
Thank you for pointing out the coding error and correct assumptions. Keep well good Ghost.
Or what Ghost of Whitlam said, same thing.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/02/nearly-200-people-under-observation-after-irkutsk-lab-worker-dies-from-plague-a93857
Mavis says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:59 pm
I’ll remember that next time some Police are murdered on the job. It’s OK if you think you’re oppressed.
You’re probably not getting out of the pub alive if you refer to it as a ‘spectacle’ either.
In Perth the NRL GF is just a filler before Bathurst.
UpNorth – good to hear from you again! Yes, no contest who to support tomorrow. I’m all ready for the chooks to get royally plucked.
Everyone was racist before the 1960s, with a few honourable exceptions.
Meanwhile, Robert Menzies visited was full of praise for the “new Germany” when he visited in the late 1930s.
FUBARsays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 9:23 pm
In Perth the NRL GF is just a filler before Bathurst.
—————–
Perf? Perf?
Do you have a source for that claim?
W.A. NRL grand final audience (2025): 400,000
Bathurst Average TV Audience: The live race broadcast averaged 2.003 million viewers nationwide in 2025
11% of the Australian population lives in W.A. (extrapolate an audience of 220,000 for the big car race)
No state by state breakdown of Bathurst audience figures is available, so lets assume you just pulled that statement from the same place you get most of your information.
You’ve been sniffing too many V8 exhaust fumes again.
Fact check, fact check in aisle 3.
newy boysays:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 9:31 pm
UpNorth – good to hear from you again! Yes, no contest who to support tomorrow. I’m all ready for the chooks to get royally plucked.
中华人民共和国
G’Day Mate – Good to see you maintaining the rage cobber! Fingers crossed.
Night all….
From Nikon’s annual wildlife photo comp. In combat the element of surprise is priceless and by golly the squirrel scores 10/10 for that .
https://www.comedywildlifephoto.com/images/gallery/1/00002071_p.webp
The Nikon Comedy Wildlife Awards
https://www.comedywildlifephoto.com/gallery/finalists/2026_finalists.php
FUBAR:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 9:16 pm
Many of your contributions to this site appear to be aimed at baiting others. Labor may’ve been racist, though I wouldn’t take it that far; it was a product of the norms of the times. And the Dems did support slavery, but both Labor and the Dems saw the error of their ways. Regrettably, Australian conservatives in the mould of a Howard or an Abbott have yet to change with the times, and probably won’t. As for the GOP, reference thereof is drawn to the grifting, obese oaf in the W H.
So, I see that since I was here in the morning the only defences of Shoebridge’s fatuous “we are against arming Ukraine, we would support it if the UNSC did but since Russia vetoes that we can’t” bullshit have been Rex’s predictable whataboutism, Nicholas the long-time Putinist, and this new Putinist Strange Fruit
HBG, respect for disagreeing with Shoebridge’s views. It’s entirely reasonable to disagree with a party’s policy but still find they’re the closest to you overall. Usually it’s only us Labor people here who do that, and right-wingers whenever the Coalition was temporarily trying to pretend to be human on something, it’s nice to see a Greens supporter not being completely culty.
Faruqi as Greens leader would have made no difference. Maybe some slight differences in focus since I agree Faruqi is less left-wing economically than Shoebridge and I have no idea what she thinks of the Ukraine conflict, but 1A and 1B as far as alienating the Greens soft support and being solely focussed on eating Labor, not on taking any voters off the right wing parties. Both Faruqi and Shoebridge have been on my shitlist for years, as regular readers will be well aware. They would both be happier with a 30 seat Coalition/ON majority government repealing every environmental regulation under the sun but the Greens taking 5 seats off Labor than they are with the present parliament.
“Pauline is going to turn Australia’s most progressive state into a police state worthy of Bjelke-Peterson.”
The track record of people elected as One Nation MPs continuing to take instructions from Pauline Hanson for any length of time is not particularly strong. She might TRY but given that a lot of the anti-government feeling in Victoria continues to boil out of resentment at COVID-era restrictions, curfews etc, I don’t think police state stuff would go over well at all with the the candidates let alone their supporters.
These guys talk a big game but the protests will be in their face pretty quickly if they overdo it.
If they win the election and they’re smart (which they aren’t), they’d stick to doing what people more or less want – keep the Labor infrastructure projects people want, make noises about cleaning it up from bikies etc, loudly turn up criminal penalties for violent crime and property crime (judges will mitigate it at sentencing time anyway), and just blame Labor for government debt while blithely adding to it to pay for their pork barrelling, as the Liberals always do.
Instead they’ll overreach and do right wing culture wars stuff people DON’T want and cut services people DO want and end up a one-termer like Bailieu/Napthine. We can but hope.