Two federal polls that reported this week:
• The monthly Essential Research poll recorded a recovery for Labor after a particularly bad result last time, up three on the primary vote to 29%, with the Coalition down four to 22%, One Nation up two to 25%, the Greens down one to 12% and undecided up one to 6%. Labor edged into a 48-46 lead over the Coalition on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, after the Coalition led 50-45 last time. Anthony Albanese was up two on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor was down one to 31% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The full report features extensive further questions on immigration (including a finding that general attitudes have improved since April, with 46% viewing it as generally positive and 39% as generally negative, up five and down six respectively), one on gambling, and another on (indirectly) Ed Sheeran. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1008.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll breaks from the pollster’s recent practice in encompassing a fortnight of surveying, and presumably half consists of the result that was published last week, with an overall sample of 2569. The movements on last week’s result are duly more modest than Morgan’s recent form, which was presumably the idea: Labor up one to 26%, One Nation steady on 25.5%, the Coalition up one to 22.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor is out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and steady on 52-48 on previous election flows. With its expanded sample, the release linked to above also treats us to full voting intention breakdowns from the mainland states.
Lots of dumb commentary about Michelle Bullock on here last night. On a par with Trump’s critiques of the Fed Reserve. You should all be proud.
Rising interest rates are tough for young people buying homes. But rampant inflation is utterly destructive to an economy.
Bullock is not a Liberal. She is a strong, knowledgeable woman who stands her ground. If that doesn’t suit some of the blokes on here they can go post on Truth Social.
BTW. What everyone seemed to miss last night is that the reason the Greens went with Hodgins-May rather than Faruqi as deputy is the same reason we have Richard Marles as Deputy PM: you try to avoid having both from the same state.
Anyway, I can’t imagine that Faruqi would ever have settled for being deputy. It would have been like Gillard asking Rudd to serve as her deputy.
At Drumcree -day 5
The negotiated compromise was that the residents blocking the road would recognise the Orangemen’s right to parade and undertake not to block the march. The Orangemen would then agree not to march. The residents agreed but the Orangemen rejected the compromise, one of the Unionist leaders said they “would not walk away from marching” (it is Ireland)
Do as I say, not as I do.
…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-greens-need-to-let-the-sunshine-in-or-risk-stagnation-20261001-p611xe.html
The Guardian gives a ‘fence sitting’ prediction for Sunday’s Grand Final between the Newcastle Knights and the Sydney Roosters:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2026/oct/02/nrl-2026-grand-final-sydney-roosters-vs-newcastle-knights-decider-won-lost
My take: Grand Finals are different to all other games in any season. Form from the regular season is basically not applicable. The Knights lost to the Warriors and the Panthers in all their regular season matches this year, but prevailed over both of them in the finals. The Roosters have a 4-4 record in GFs in the NRL era, while the Knights have never lost a GF they’ve contested, despite being heavily favoured to lose both times.
Knights to win.
You’ve come out swinging this morning Meher Baba!
Newy – congrats on picking Newcastle. I thought they’d be mauled by the Panthers last week.
Hope the Knights win on Sunday, but I’ll pick the Chooks to take home the granny.
Very optimistic of you, newy. Roosters will win.
nadia – that’s where the smart money is, for sure. I frankly admit I’m going with heart over head!
Thanks for the good wishes for the Knights. I wasn’t able to get tickets for the big show itself, but it’s going to be all blue and red at Chez Newy Boy this Sunday.
Wombat – don’t blame you for the prediction. But, I never ever tip against my team. This finals series, that’s served me well. 😉
Chancellor Merz’s approval ratings have taken a further downturn in this new German poll.
Approval – 10%
Disapproval – 88% (Holey moley)
Generic primary vote across Germany (ie: East & West)
* CDU-CSU 20% (Current Governing party)
* AFD 27%
* Greens 16%
* SPD 13% (This party is similar to Labor, and is the current junior partner in Merz’s traffic light coalition)
* Die Linke 11% (The left – this party is the current version of the former East German gov’t)
Link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/german-chancellor-merzs-approval-rating-183337282.html
After engaging in the “Get Starmer” faction on PB at the start of the year, I might have to set up a “Get Merz” theme here.
His Defence Minister – Boris Pistorius enjoys fairly high approval ratings (at 50%), but he’s from the wrong party – the SPD. Very unlikely the CDU-CSU would use their numbers in Parliament to install Pistorius as Chancellor.
Google AI. Prompt 1: write a country and western song in fulsome praise of pauline hanson and barnaby joyce
Out where the red dirt meets the sky, and the gum trees stand up tall,
There’s a pair of boots on the dusty ground that answer every call.
From the rolling hills of New England to the Queensland sun and sand,
There are two true voices ringing out across this sunburned land.
(Chorus)
So raise your glass to Pauline, and cheer for Barnaby,
The ones who stand for the Aussie bush, for folks like you and me!
They don’t bow down to city slickers or the fancy corporate crew,
Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce, this country sings for you!
(Verse 2)
She’s the iron lady of the North, she says just what she means,
In a world of spin and promises, she’s the truest we have seen.
She fights for the farmer’s water, she fights for the working man,
Pauline stands up for the flag, the best way that she can.
(Chorus)
So raise your glass to Pauline, and cheer for Barnaby,
The ones who stand for the Aussie bush, for folks like you and me!
They don’t bow down to city slickers or the fancy corporate crew,
Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce, this country sings for you!
(Bridge)
Then look down south to Barnaby, with his Akubra tilted high,
He’s shouting for the regional towns beneath the wide blue sky.
A bloke who speaks the language of the shearer and the shed,
He keeps the heart of the nation strong, just like his old man said.
(Guitar Solo)
(Verse 3)
They’ve taken the hits and took the blows, but they never back away,
Holding the line for the battles fought in the towns of yesterday.
Together they are the bedrock, the spine of the Great Divide,
Walking the talk for Australia, with honesty and pride.
(Chorus)
So raise your glass to Pauline, and cheer for Barnaby,
The ones who stand for the Aussie bush, for folks like you and me!
They don’t bow down to city slickers or the fancy corporate crew,
Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce, this country sings for you!
(Outro)
Yeah, the country sings for you…
From the outback to the coast,
You’re the ones we love the most.
Pauline and Barnaby!
As the days have lengthened, the proportion of renewable energy in the NEM has increased – 49.2% in September, up from 41.7% in August and 48.5% in September 2025. The 12 month rolling average ticked up to 47.1% from 46.9%.
Also lengthening was curtailment – 5.4% for the month. Some of this would have been due to network congestion, but most of it would have been due to economic offloading, ie. switching off to avoid negative prices – a luxury the coalers don’t have. Until the coalers retire, breakdown, go offline for maintenance or a sabbatical, the renewable proportion will not grow much more.
Incidentally, some of the coalers must be struggling and might retire sooner than expected. With the lack of volatility in the wholesale market, spot price revenue has dropped – by >50% in Q2 cf Q2 2025. At the same time, coal prices have risen due to Trump’s excursion:
This doesn’t affect all the coalers, some have coal supplies which are not exposed to the global market – all of the Victorian plants, for example. Those NSW and Qld power plants who are competing with global buyers, however, are getting squeezed from both ends.
September 2026 Renewables Leaderboard
Tas 85%
SA 83%
Vic 50%
Qld 43%
NSW 43%
WA 41%
The next morning after the Knights’ first GF win in 1997, Matty Johns was ‘tired and emotional’ in his interview with Channel 7’s Natalie Barr:
https://youtu.be/anuqlsQHHMw?si=zzrnD9iZK6oq23DO
WB
In that EMRS Tasmania poll you published here about 10 days ago, on page 10 it also included the Federal Vote out of Tasmania. Not too sure whether you wish to plug this data into the BT data tab for Tassie, so your call. Won’t make much of a difference to the overall BT aggregates
Primaries {comparison figure with the Federal vote out of Tasmania at the 2025 election}
* ALP 29% (-7.6)
* LNP 17% (-7.5)
* ON 26% (+20)
* GRN 15% (+3.9)
* Oth/Ind 13% (-8.8)
Link (refer page 10)
https://www.emrs.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/EMRS%20State%20and%20Federal%20Voting%20Intentions%20Report%20-%20August%202026%20-%20FINAL.pdf
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/press-releases/expansion-of-rooftop-solar-scheme-cuts-upfront-cost-for-businesses-by-20/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/01/has-mississippi-long-dead-zone-democrats-been-revived-by-trump-voting-rights/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Enough of the shitty AI content. Its dull and its boring and its meaningless. There are far better ways to use it, like playing tic tactics toe or maybe global thermonuclear war.
Nadia’s back, I hope you’re not too disappointed Mehreen Faruqi didn’t become Greens leader
Just to correct, or rather inform, a couple of things from this morning
I member vote for Greens leader requires a change to the Greens Constitution, it failed last time it was put up but both the new leader and deputy hope it’ll be in place before the next election i.e. it couldn’t be used to decide the leadership this time
Mehreen Faruqi didn’t run for deputy
I liked Larissa but she was never comfortable doing these Zack Polanski style videos, David and Steph have got it nailed. Short, sharp and on message
It’s time to replace Labor
https://youtube.com/shorts/-uJDeUPTeBM
Edit. Nice to see the Greens hit 15 in Tassie
Bowen’s 50% renewables like was definitely premature
Some of the recent polling in Oz has the right/wrong direction of the country tipping into the high 50’s/low 60’s (being negative).
SEC Newgate report – Mood of the Nation – dated late Sep, has it at 68% (ie: wrong direction)
Link:
https://secnewgate.com.au/sec-newgate-mood-of-the-nation-september-2026-summary/
No primary numbers with this pollster.
There is also an equivalent Victorian report, which has the state at 73% wrong direction.
With regard to which party is best to handle the main issues in Victoria, the numbers are as follows (once again, these are not really primaries)
* Libs 27%
* ON 19%
* ALP 16% (don’t gasp, it’s not a primary vote figure)
* No-one 13%
* Greens 10% (bit brutal being tucked in there behind “no-one”)
Link: https://secnewgate.com.au/sec-newgate-mood-of-the-nation-2026-victoria-edition/
Ouch…
UK 30 year gilts top 6%.
The Stock Market dropped $63 billion yesterday.
House prices dropped 5% since the March peak.
And nobody knew they were there.
Hear, hear!
That ‘approval’ and:net approval’ is ‘Holey Moley’ of historic proportions.
I don’t think even Starmer was that unpopular.
Both governing parties since WW2 are polling a combined 33%.
Germany is ripe for another Nazi take over after 80 years.
Currently, European leaders are deeply unpopular except for Swiss leader.
Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 4:37 pm
I think Redbridge is up as far as new opinion polls are concerned. Otherwise I don’t think there will be another one until the next Roy Morgan poll in Monday, but don’t quote me on that one.
=========
From last night,
Yep TBM – Redbridge-Accent is a bit overdue. Last Sunday it was 4 weeks since their last poll, and obviously this Sunday will make it 5 weeks.
Don’t know if they’ll drop Sunday evening though as it will be in the middle of the Grand Final.
Might turn up today, or possibly Monday.
Rainfall in September was slightly below average across most of eastern Australia:
https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/variable=rainfall&map=anomaly&period=2month®ion=nat&year=2026&month=09&day=30
Edit: The ABC’s best has an extensive report:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-02/floods-storms-forecast-south-east-australia-after-dry-spetember/107217872
Greens politics is brutal.
Well below average in our neck of the woods. This weekend is make or break for spring growth. If we don’t get much rain now the bush growth will move into summer phase.
MAINE POLL BY Fabrizio/Impact for AARP
SENATE
Troy Jackson: 50%
Susan Collins: 47%
—
GOVERNOR
Hannah Pingree: 52%
Bobby Charles: 39%
—
GCB
Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 43%
2024 recall: Harris 48-42 | 9/20-22 | LV
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ph0Eg4WPC_fqa1AVIP-VmxzmIdnMZFo0/view?usp=drivesdk
If I’m not mistaken, I believe Fabrizio is Trump’s pollster.
Waleed Aly – The Greens were anti-establishment. Now it looks like they’re a part of it
https://archive.is/VWGw8#selection-217.0-217.74
“One explanation for its absence is that under Waters, the Greens have been too quietist. Too conciliatory. Too constructive. In that view, Waters might be able to point to certain legislative achievements – on investor taxes, on national environmental laws, on native forest protections – but she never grabbed us by the throat.
:::
And perhaps that points to the Greens’ greatest challenge: that in an anti-establishment moment, they come across as part of the establishment. They signed agreements with prime minister Julia Gillard, helped install a carbon tax and currently hold the balance of power in the Senate (again). When they behave moderately, they are part of the system. When they behave radically, they are obstructing things. One Nation, meanwhile, has the luxury of having never been the powerbroker, which means it can sound off as it likes while obstructing nothing. It promises a cleansing fire, not gridlock.
I suspect that’s what leads Shoebridge to talk of replacement. His plea is for power, not the balance of it. Replace Labor, and you’re acting, not obstructing. It’s an enormous, unlikely ask. It might fail spectacularly, in which case Labor probably survives in some battered way. But Labor will be nervous. The orange wave is turbulent enough, but it’s survivable as long as it crashes on the walls of our cities. This week’s economic news increases the chances it might finally breach those walls from one side. And if the week’s political developments cause a green wave to swell, too, Labor might find itself inundated.”
Just on Steph Hodgins-May being elected Deputy Leader of the Greens…
I think it’s quite a smart move given she’s from Victoria and the Greens Federal vote in Vic has shown an uptick of recent.
* Sep 22 YouGov – 18%
* Sep 28 Newspoll (aggregates) – 16%
* Sep 29 RoyMorgan – 16%
These are good figures for the Greenscoming out of our 2nd largest state, for which Steph & her Greens team in Victoria (mainly Ellen Sandell & Sami Ratnam) can take some credit for.
With YouGov – here is the link again to their News4 pulse.
https://www.news24.com.au/politics/australian-politics/we-have-stabilised-shadow-defence-minister-james-paterson-defends-angus-taylor-as-coalition-polls-near-record-low/news-story/027a26b263294e40f1921c0bfffc593f
If you scroll down to the Federal Voting Intention graph, and then click the drop down box for the state figures, you’ll see the Greens sitting there at a whopping 18%.
Fess @ 7.01am
Well, perhaps. But I personally think that having party members elect parliamentary leaders is a dreadful system, almost inevitably pushing a party further to one end of the spectrum or the other. Look at the rise of Corbyn in the UK or the way that Trump/MAGA now controls the Republican Party through the primary.
That Faruqi – who is a bit to the left of Shoebridge on some issues – is so confident that she would have won a poll of members says it all.
And polling among Latinos. Ouch!
https://nytimes.com/interactive/polls/latest-polls.html#methodology
Actually, just checking Bludgertrack, the Greens in Vic are now just over 14%, with the primaries for the other 3 parties all within about 1 point now.
* ALP 25.3
* ON 24.6
* LNP 24.1
Tight as!
Jim Chalmers’ attempts to soften a week of 15-year cash rate highs, runaway inflation and crashing housing approvals has fallen on deaf ears among the Labor party room, as one MP accused the Treasurer of “sounding like a used car sales man”.
There is growing caucus agitation over the government’s economic messaging, with both Anthony Albanese and Mr Chalmers attempting to blame stagnant inflation on the Middle East war, while deflecting blame from Labor’s deficit-riddled balance sheet.
This masthead spoke to 10 Labor MPs across various factions who were allowed anonymity to speak freely. One Labor MP said Mr Chalmers’ “usual lines” were no longer “washing well for people”. “It just sounds so scripted. It’s a worry for government that people will stop listening like they did with (former prime minister Scott) Morrison,” they said. “It’s like he’s a used-car salesman.”
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/usedcar-salesman-labor-mps-revolt-against-jim-chalmers-over-economic-spin/news-story/d2fd631719e1d14c38abd1a9fa49aa73
According to Nate Silver, the polling numbers are bad for Republicans in red states. The change in polling numbers in Blue states is not that much noticeable.
So based on that the Republican victory margins may very small but they will win in the end.
BTE, Trump is doing everything to rig the elections. And one more thing. US people have soft spot for Trump.
Australia A are doing better in this match:
https://www.cricinfo.com/series/australia-a-in-india-2026-27-1535669/india-a-vs-australia-a-2nd-unofficial-test-1535673/full-scorecard
Sam Harper batted his way into the main squad (with Nic Maddinson).
Edit: Both are good stories. Harper overcoming a series of concussions and Maddinson cancer:
https://www.cricinfo.com/story/sa-vs-aus-nic-maddinson-and-sam-harper-added-to-australia-s-test-squad-in-south-africa-1556765
Approval rating amongst Cuban Americans in Florida is still holding up for Republicans because there is whisper that Trump will invade Cuba in October, 2026, which is the cherished dream of Cuban Americans. Also, Rubio is a Cuban American. I can’t remember a Cuban American being so high up in any administration.
In 2000, Bush jr won Florida by 500 votes (aka with hanging chads) and Cuban Americans.
Yep. The insanity feedback loop is hugely powerful. As a party moves to an extreme it sheds members from the saner side of the street.
Dumping a known and seasoned national leader like Faruqi for a no-name Jilly-come-lately is a good move? What exactly are no-name’s concrete achievements? If any?
I can understand why the Trots would want Shoebridge and not SH-Y but No-Name for Faruqi?
Really?
HBG, Greens 15% in Tas: Tassie must be fertile ground for a Greens government experiment. Gosh the Libs are so bad! They’ve economically mismanaged us into an abyss of poverty; Labor has no policies of its own and is terrified of being lumbered with governing us out of the Liberal abyss. So, there’s an opportunity for the Greens to show us how it’s done.
Tassie to take one for the team! Only 35% more of the preferential vote to get.
HBG,
Yep I like Senator Faruqi. She comes across as a no bull***t politician, but I think the Greens have made a great choice with their new team on this occasion.
Someone here mentioned last night that it wouldn’t work for the Greens having two leaders out of NSW, which I agree with. Putting the Victorian Senator into the leadership is a smart move given that in some area’s of Melbourne the “Victorian Socialists” are breathing down their neck especially in Melbourne’s inner north.
Sen Shoebridge is, I believe, part of the infamous “eastern bloc” faction of the NSW Greens. He is closely aligned to Lee Rhiannon. This should serve to also calm the Victorian Socialists.
We’ll see how the polling reacts over the next few months.
Dare to dream Luigi, although a primary vote above 30 might be enough to give them the numbers to lead a minority government
Nadia that 18 in Victoria is great, bring on 20+ for the Greens in Victoria
I was hoping for Sarah Hanson-Young but I’m happy with where they landed and the energy the new leadership team is bringing. I don’t think Mehreen Faruqi could have done that
Luigi Smith @ #40 Friday, October 2nd, 2026 – 7:58 am
But we do also need to point out ON are polling at a level in Tasmania that they will get a Senate seat next election. And upwards of 8 of the 35 state parliament seats if an election was held today, the Greens hold 5.
Mostly Interested says:
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:06 am
Luigi Smith @ #40 Friday, October 2nd, 2026 – 7:58 am
But we do also need to point out ON are polling at a level in Tasmania that they will get a Senate seat next election. And upwards of 8 of the 35 state parliament seats if an election was held today, the Greens hold 5.
__________
This is the real game. ON to hold BoP in 28.
World News & Politics Patrol:
46,230 Russian Troop Losses in September, Moscow Prepares 120,000 New Conscripts: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/85841
Ukraine uses FP-7 ballistic missile in combat for first time – video: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/01/8056021/
US sends 2,000 Marines, carrier strike group to Mideast in Iran buildup: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610014004
US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/
Oil jumps 4% on reports China halts fuel exports: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-barely-changed-investors-assess-us-iran-peace-talks-gulf-exports-2026-10-01/
‘He’s a friend of mine’: Trump explains why North Korea has nukes but Iran can’t: https://www.firstpost.com/world/united-states/hes-a-friend-of-mine-trump-explains-why-north-korea-has-nukes-but-iran-cant-14049242.html
Counter terror police arrest UK-Iranian national over RAF Fairford investigation: https://news.sky.com/story/dual-uk-iranian-national-arrested-over-raf-fairford-incident-counter-terror-police-say-13594090
Trump Explodes on Reporter: ‘You Haven’t Asked Me One F-cking Positive Question’: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-explodes-reporter-time-interview-1235635165/
Trump Won’t Rule Out Declaring State Of Emergency Before Midterms: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-state-of-emergency-insurrection-act-midterms_n_6abe69b0e4b02a789b333fb9
Fetterman’s Secret MAGA Cash Grab Exposed in Leaked Message: https://www.thedailybeast.com/john-fettermans-maga-cash-grab-exposed-in-leaked-message/
Trump Kicks Out CNN Again Despite Judge’s Order: https://newrepublic.com/post/216069/donald-trump-kicks-out-cnn-judge-order
Child Rape Suspect Set To Become Chief of Police in Louisiana: https://www.newsweek.com/child-rape-suspect-set-to-become-chief-of-police-in-louisiana-12511922
Trump says he regrets nominating Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6123220-supreme-court-votes-against-trump/
Republicans Spending Over $7M per Day To Try and Save Ken Paxton in Texas: https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-spending-over-7m-per-day-save-ken-paxton-texas-senate-james-talarico-12511220
Trump says he rejected Secret Service plan to tear down Oval Office: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6123889-trump-rejects-oval-office-demolition-plan/
Trump’s Name Can’t Be Carved Into Institute of Peace, Court Says: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/trumps-name-cant-be-carved-into-institute-of-peace-court-says
Senators give cold shoulder to Hegseth plan to cut admirals, generals: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/6124198-senate-reacts-pentagon-purge/
Pentagon launches Office of Religious Affairs, will report directly to Hegseth: https://www.navytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/10/01/pentagon-launches-office-of-religious-affairs-will-report-directly-to-hegseth/
Renee Good’s family sues US government and immigration officials over her killing in Minneapolis: https://apnews.com/article/renee-good-lawsuit-6fbc82cd33b6f9f67514b47f138e23c6
Tennessee suspends executions as Christa Pike’s lawyer says failed lethal injection leaves her in critical condition: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/01/christa-pike-tennessee-governor-executions-year-pause
Orange Babyman does a deep dive into his demented Trumpyverse.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6123889-trump-rejects-oval-office-demolition-plan/
meher baba:
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 5:43 am
So says the self-appointed blog monitor!
Let’s see.
Leader? White, male, old, lawyer, rich, urban elite, marxist, egotistical, straight…
… right in the center of all the Greens Venn diagrams!
His handmaiden? A no-name tyro.
Fox polling on Texas and Iowa senate
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-its-lone-star-senate-showdown-between-talarico-paxton
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-turek-hinson-close-iowa-senate-race
Dem +2 in both
Florida down ballot could be a big surprise with Governor and AG flipping
https://youtu.be/X_-ur4gHqWw?si=dxleZHVwBXOvZ2NX