The Herald Sun reports a DemosAU/PremierNational poll of Victorian state voting intention has the Coalition’s two-party lead over Labor narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 25% (up two), Coalition 30% (down two), One Nation 20% (down two) and Greens 14% (up one). Ben Carroll’s personal ratings are up two for positive to 23%, down two for neutral to 40% and steady on 37% for negative; Jess Wilson’s are down two on positive to 33%, up one on neutral to 42% and up one on negative to 25%; and Warren Pickering’s ratings have responded only moderately to the recent elevation to his public profile, up three on positive to 22%, down five on neutral to 38% and up two on negative to 40%. The poll was conducted September 10 to 20 from a sample of 1020. A full report featuring detailed breakdowns should be on the pollster’s website later today.
UPDATE (1/10): The Herald-Sun today has a Freshwater Strategy poll that gives the Coalition a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 24%, Coalition 29%, One Nation 22% and Greens 14%. A three-way preferred premier question has Jess Wilson at 37%, Ben Carroll at 30% and Warren Pickering at 13%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1030.
I am also pleased to announce that the Poll Bludger’s Victorian election guide is now online, with all the customary features: tables, charts, interactive maps and analysis of all 88 lower house seats and eight upper house regions, plus a general overview of the electoral terrain and state politics generally over the past parliamentary term.
No less exciting is a new addition to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate that aims to make sense of the new electoral terrain by projecting outcomes for all 88 seats, based on modelling and the latest reading of the poll aggregate. To cut a long story short, the model is based largely on the relationship between federal and state election results in South Australia, the only case study so far of how voting patterns have changed since One Nation’s apparent transformation from minor to major party, together with Indigenous Voice referendum results (a pointer to strength for One Nation), data on outright home ownership (a pointer to the Liberals) and whether the seat has a Coalition incumbent (which appeared to be a relevant factor in the seats where the Liberals held out against One Nation in South Australia). If this approach proves its worth, I may end up applying it to the federal context.
The seat projection currently suggests Labor will be copping it at both ends, losing exactly enough seats to the Coalition to give the latter a bare majority of 45 seats while also bearing almost the entire brunt of One Nation’s 15 seat haul, in contrast to South Australia where Labor’s primary vote was 37.5% as compared with BludgerTrack Victoria’s current estimate of 25.2%. The former includes what would undoubtedly be some surprise Liberal gains in Melbourne, including Albert Park, Eltham and not least the Premier’s seat of Niddrie, with the very considerable qualification that the model makes little allowance for candidates’ personal votes. One Nation is credited with a new empire extending from Melbourne’s outer north and west through the Ballarat seats to Ripon, along with scattered gains elsewhere. UPDATE: A correction/revision to the model has made its projection less rosy for the Coalition, who are now at only 38 seats.
Sample sizes are too low to be making confident assertions based on subsamples.
I doubt there is only 5% primary vote difference between inner Metro and regional for ON.
I am surprised the regional belt around Ballarat and Bendigo has looked so dire for the ALP pretty much this whole term. Jacinta Allan is/was the member for Bendigo East and I’d think having a Premier from Bendigo would have created a bit of a firewall in Bendigo at least.
Likewise I think the regional samples are often red herrings in terms of trying to predict uniform swings for certain seats, housing tenure and education are more informative when you combine multiple polls that publish such breakdowns
A good write up on where things sit from Casey Briggs
I actually think the Nats are a decent shot of holding off One Nation to a degree, they seem better placed in Victoria than federally on that front
Can an independent break through anywhere? The system is against them
And how many seats do the Greens win with the help of the Socialists, who didn’t get a mention in the article
A fascinating stat re the Liberals not winning a seat north or west of the Yarra this century
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-03/victorian-state-election-unpredictable-casey-briggs-analysis/107216078
@LukeM
From what I gather, people in Bendigo are particularly angry at Jacinta Allan for seemingly jaunting off to Melbourne to give them everything and leave them behind.
That Federal Labor almost lost Bendigo on a 10% swing indicates that yeah, they are really angry at Labor there.
Ballarat might at least hold up in Wendouree, but Eureka and Ripon will probably flip. Although the local MP here Juliana Addison did a blunder about a month ago in revealing on social media that she is actually somewhat shocked and frightened by the amount of hatred the One Nation mob has against her and Labor, and they just rammed at her in response.
From what I gather, people in Bendigo are particularly angry at Jacinta Allan for seemingly jaunting off to Melbourne to give them everything and leave them behind.
********************
Again I am genuinely interested, don’t know why people are reacting badly to me asking genuinely.
Following the logic, Premier from small city heads off to the big smoke. What were Bendigo people expecting? What is it that Jacinta failed to do in Bendigo that was making them angry, not just disappointed? I’m definitely disappointed but hardly angry or hating her, as the other poster suggested. She hardly seems an object of hate.
@Corleone
Free access to Sky News that fills their heads with venom against everything that goes against Murdoch interests, as well as Jacinta Allan’s failure to act against that, I reckon.
It isn’t fair, but politics is rarely fair and now Victorian Labor appears to be about to pay the price for inaction in the past 3 years, and the rest of us with them.
Freshwater poll has finally turned up on their website.
The primaries (as already published here), are located in row 208.
Unfortunately they don’t provide the demographic distribution of the vote (inner,outer, regional etc).
Link: https://freshwaterstrategy.com/2026/10/02/herald-sun-freshwater-strategy-september-polling-data/
Interesting the favourables by party
ALP: positive 36% negative 49%
LIB: positive 42% negative 35%
ONP: positive 38% negative 45%
GRN: positive 33% negative 39%
Albanese running at -20%, Wilson with a much lower negative rating (21%) than the Liberal Party (35%)
Interesting too that Freshwater chose to ask the voter whether the respective state leaders should campaign alongside their “federal counterpart”.
Fairly lame poll though by Freshwater. They could’ve provided the regional voting breakdown, as other pollsters do. Not too sure why they didn’t as it’s what everyone wants to know!
No Favour- good info. I still can’t understand how everyone is projecting ON to sweep through outer metro when they’re polling third and well behind the Coalition.
CN – Agreed.
Consider the Redbridge MRP (which is now outdated). Even when One Nation was just ahead on primaries back then (at 27%), this was the modelled outcome for each of the three parties when they made the top two:
– ALP (26%) – 35 seats from 72 contests
– L/NP (26%) – 39 seats from 49 contests
– ONP (27%) – 12 seats from 49 contests
One Nation did very poorly at translating contests into seats. In contrast, the Coalition did very well from preferences. And Labor was in between.
And this was with One Nation leading!
Depends on what you mean by ‘sweep’ outer metro
The 2 main conservative forces have both a conflicting and dovetailing vote distribution – the Coalition are strong in the rurals and in the inner/middle belt of Melbourne’s south and east. ONP are also strong in the rurals but their metro strength is in working class outer metro seats where the Liberals are already coming off a low base and are projected to lose voteshare statewide.
There will be inner eastern seats like Hawthorn where the gap between LIB and ONP could be higher than 30% on primaries, and that would not close all that much even if the polling got closer IMO, I don’t think it’s that controversial to believe ONP will do quite a bit better than their statewide vote in potentially close 3CPs like Hastings, Yan Yean, Ripon and Pakenham, however I’d be surprised if the Liberals outperformed theirs.
Soooooooo,
Went to a birthday party yesterday.
I was talking to a citizen of Porepunka. She told me with a perfectly straight face that;
1) Deși Freeman was just a good local bloke. Innocent to boot.
2) It was an assassination.
3) Dan ordered the hit.
She was deadly serious – and yet completely Gonzo.
They’re out there people, and they have just as many votes as you and I do. And they believe this shit.
We are in for troubled times.
No matter the primaries, the combined LIB/ON vote looks overall undeniably higher than ALP/GRN this time round, which under a fair voting system, heavily implies a LIB victory.
I am mostly ambivalent about state government changeovers generally but I really wish the Libs hadn’t committed to repealing the treaty the state signed with Aboriginal people… it’s so hard to progress stuff like this and it is so pointlessly destructive to tear it down.
It also makes state parliament look like they can’t be trusted to honour their agreements.
It’s ok to have massive policy fights over roads and schools and law and order and stuff like that but there are some things that grow in value with continuity and patience.
The Liberals are in the box seat for victory, they could’ve just done a smaller target “hug Labor close” strategy without this particular policy change that is a bit too cruel for me.
Mabwm
Yep many people have lost touch with reality. They really have.
For eg. I rarely go to a bank branch. I had to do it not long ago for my mum.
I walked in and it was really busy. Another mature woman followed me in and saw how busy it was too.
She proceeded to say deadpan that the govt is shutting down all the branches cos they want all money to be digitised so they can track what we spend it on. Cos they want to ban us eating meat.
Myself and another customer just burst out laughing.
Social media has cooked the critical thinking skills of people.
Also. In what world should anyone take Pauline Hanson and her party seriously. She can barely string a coherent sentence together.
I seriously have been waiting for the general populace to wake up from their stupor.
I am mostly ambivalent about state government changeovers generally but I really wish the Libs hadn’t committed to repealing the treaty the state signed with Aboriginal people… it’s so hard to progress stuff like this and it is so pointlessly destructive to tear it down.
*****
Jess is a puppet of far right religious zealots. I know her private school girl persona is irritating, but if that was all it was I could live with it. It’s knowing that her strings are pulled by Bretheren and other crazies.
@Victoria,
Yup! This all powerful government.
I had a bloke tell me all about how Dan was using chemtrails to flood the north of the state to force the people along the river to move to the capitals.
I asked him why Dan would (or could!) do such things from beyond the political grave. No explanation forthcoming other than a knowing look and a dismissive snort at my naivety.
Another bloke, a bikie, told me the government was going to make everyone ride electric motor bikes rather than the charming roar of his Harley.
And then there are the “15 minute city” conspiracists.
Our fellow humans have lost the ability to rationalise.
Hate is so easy. Troubled times have come. To my hometown, my hometown.
I find it hard to believe that so many of labor’s outer western, northern and eastern seats will fall to ON, but national party seats will not. Many of these peri-urban seats have had a massive influx of younger couples with a high proportion of naturalised migrant citizens and professionals – these areas are very multiculturally diverse. For example – It’ll be a very chilly day in hell before the well liked and long term labor local member for Sunbury is beaten by an anti-vaxxer – the new suburbs in that electorate are very diverse. Last election, most of the polls at this stage were underestimating labor’s final TPP by around 2-4% with many suggesting we were heading for a hung parliament. I’m beginning to think a labor-greens government is almost as likely as a LNP-ON one, but fear we’re heading for the latter. It might be a good election to lose – the dysfunction of the LNP with the added chaos of ON will save Albo federally too. Labor needs to campaign on what Wilson will cut, who she’ll sack, and what assets she will sell – and link her policies on climate, fracking, forests, health, education, and migration to her old IPA backers & trump and millionaire donors. The US midterms could play in labor’s favour if they link Wilson & co to trump. – e.g. How many lib candidates and staff did internships with the GoP or related ‘think tanks’?
Mabwm
I am quite anxious regarding the outcome of the election.
My optimistic side says surely sanity will prevail.
The pessimistic side. A huge holding of breath.
Another polling to seat model that is out there. We will know whose models are correct after the election, no way to know now.
https://abjago.net/4PP-projections-from-senate-results/2026-victoria-districts
A Victorian election predictor using the 2025 Senate results as a basis
Oct 3, 2026
“With One Nation continuing to do well and the Victorian state election coming up, here’s a predictor for Victoria.
As always, I’m not claiming any serious predictive power! Every party campaigns differently between elections and people vote differently in House and Senate elections.
This also ignores other parties and independents, as the numbers are based on Senate votes.
The default numbers in the calculator (about 17% Greens, 39% Labor, 34% LNP and 9% One Nation) are based on the 2025 result (specifically, the four-party-preferred calculation).
For something more like September 2026 polling, try 14% Greens, 24% Labor, 29% LNP and 22% One Nation.”
(those figures he suggest give us 3 GRN, 36 ALP, 46 L/NP, 3 ON )
I would say around 1/3 of the population have some level of algorithm induced psychosis. I am very pessimistic about where things are going, and not just this election.
And yet another poll & seat aggregator here…
Link: https://theswingison.com/track-polls/vic26
This one has the Libs sitting on 38 seats, Labor on 28, ON on 14 & Greens shy of 6.
Corleone says:
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 1:18 pm
I am mostly ambivalent about state government changeovers generally but I really wish the Libs hadn’t committed to repealing the treaty the state signed with Aboriginal people… it’s so hard to progress stuff like this and it is so pointlessly destructive to tear it down.
*****
Jess is a puppet of far right religious zealots. I know her private school girl persona is irritating, but if that was all it was I could live with it. It’s knowing that her strings are pulled by Bretheren and other crazies.
===================
Vert true Corleone. After listening to this interview she did with 3AW, it’s apparent she’s disguising her intentions somewhat.
Link: https://www.3aw.com.au/how-jess-wilson-is-preparing-to-become-australias-first-millennial-premier/
Key takeouts:
* She ducks and weaves questions about forming a coalition with O.N.
* WFH – she ducks and weaves maintaining it as a right, instead deferring to the “current arrangements” which will not be altered under a gov’t she leads. Where have we heard that one!
* Confirms that the Court of Appeal will be split (code speak – she’ll appoint a raft of Capital C conservative Judges)
* No mandatory gaol sentences, except immediate remand if a person breaches bail for 25 specific crimes.
* Royal Commission – she’ll appoint two more Commissioners (Code speak – she’ll appoint two Capital C Conservatives to the RC who will override the current Labor appointed Commissioner 2 to 1)
* RC terms of reference will be expanded to cover – you guessed it – political donations.
* A budget update (mini budget) will be prepared within the first 100 days if she’s elected.
Code Speak – this is the budget where she will naturally find a “hidden financial black hole”, and can then walk back election committments.
Further code speak – this will be used to initiate public sector sacking in 2027 (similar to what Kennett did in 1992/93).
Oh well, it’s really up to Victorian’s what they want I suppose.
CN says:
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 8:54 pm
No Favour- good info. I still can’t understand how everyone is projecting ON to sweep through outer metro when they’re polling third and well behind the Coalition.
============
Neither do I
Max says:
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 3:57 pm
Likewise I think the regional samples are often red herrings in terms of trying to predict uniform swings for certain seats, housing tenure and education are more informative when you combine multiple polls that publish such breakdowns
======================
It’s actually good that most pollsters (bar Freshwater) do regional samples for Victoria for the simple reason the Victorian Upper House is split into regions. It’s not a statewide vote like most other Legislative Councils areound the country.
Gorks says:
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 2:04 pm
I would say around 1/3 of the population have some level of algorithm induced psychosis. I am very pessimistic about where things are going, and not just this election.
==========
I’ll be honest and say I’ve got a more positive view of our fellow human beings.
There is an element who are fanatical, but it’s very small.
Sometimes I look at the comments section in articles by the Daily Mail or News24, and literally gasp when reading some of the feral/venom hate which people type. But then you look at how the article is spun – usually with a picture of the target politician looking smug etc – and you realise that the article is just trying to elicit a reaction out of their audience. None of the comments are anywhere near amateur psephology in orientation.
I think about 5% of people are a bit feral. When I come across these sorts, I listen to what they have to say and simply move on. They’re not a big group though, just loud.
I still believe Nats have the most to fear from ON.
Labor have the most to fear from all 3 right wing parties in roughly equal measure because they are the party in government and have taken traditional inner city wealthy electorates, which the Libs should get back, the provincial city fringes, which the Nats should be getting back, and some that Labor will lose directly to ON filled with white flight cookers and crazies.
But the Nats may not get those seats back from Labor, but they could go straight to ON.
Is Victoria the cooker capital of Australia? It’s sounding like it
Massive hypocrisy from Jess Wilson to support the Voice but oppose Treaty imo (doing the opposite makes more sense)
Although it could be similar to Gillard on same sex marriage i.e. being told what to say and believe
@HBG – No, Victoria is not the cooker capital of Australia. Far from it. Our cookers are just the loudest and the next to face an election.
At the weekend they called for the immediate imprisonment of the last two state Premiers. One voluntarily left office 3 years ago!
The issue here in Victoria is we have a 12 year old government and a Cost of Living crisis. The government would normally be toast due to that alone, however here in Victoria the masses have given up on the libs too! As you know nature abhors a vacuum – so here come the cookers, the Nazis and the vagabonds to fill that void. They can’t believe their luck.
Just when we Victorians needed the Libs to step up and be decent, they went AWOL.
re the cookers: the caravan will move on.
There are an enormous number of people nationwide who feel the system has passed them by. They want to blame everybody but themselves. They do a day trip to the inner city and notice that Melbourne really is a multicultural metropolis.
They have no idea how lucky they are to live in a peaceful wealthy first world country. Because their basic needs are met they start to obsess on mindless bullshit.
Yes, sorry to disappoint our RWNJ friends on this site and the web at large – we are suffering from cultural stultification and naivety. Add a little prejudice and you are just two steps away from jackboots in the streets.
There is no suggestion Dan and Jacinta should be fairly tried – just they should be imprisoned before Christmas. These people are dangerous. And very soon they will be having coalition discussions with the Libs and the remnants of the Nats.
Sustainable future
I would be more than happy with a Labor greens minority govt
I read Chip Le Grand in the Age condemning the Airport Rail link and Keilor East railway station promise as “Pork Barrelling”, despite such a rail link having been promised and promised by various hues of government since 1963. Two days later he wrote another article on the same subject to inform his readers that the Lib leader, Ms Wilson had promised to build the link and station as proposed. He headlined as “Hold my beer …..”. Appears she did not bother telling her shadow Transport Minister, Matthew Guy, of the decision so that he condemned the proposal out of hand.
How embarrassing !!!
The Age runs a list of political/election stories after each such article. Strangely the Labor bad article is there but the Wilson hold my beer story has vanished.
How about that !
MABWM I hope you’re right. I do think there is a bit of lockdown hangover still that’s impacting things to a degree, even though there’s been a big Labor win since
While there’s life there’s hope, I’m still hoping for a minority Labor Government supporter by the Greens with half a dozen seats
Oh and don’t forget the potholes, even Zoe Daniel mentioned them today
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/oct/04/australia-government-cost-of-living-wealth-gap
Hear, fucking hear! A focus on how to make a great and wealthy country a fairer and more united country would make a great narrative, but labor seems too gutless to go there. If every question was answered through the prism of ‘we’re trying to build a better, more united and fairer country’ labor could blow the cookers and the cooker adjacent LNP out of the water. Labor should say you don’t make a country fairer and more united by trying to divide us, promote hate, cut wages and give tax breaks to the wealthiest.
Vic labor needs to brand Hanson as a whinging cooker Karen from Queensland and go hard on the whackjob views of many of the vic candidates. And have fun with it. They could then point out that there’s a tissue paper thickness between the ON whackjobs and many of the vic libs’ evangelicals – maybe even brand Wilson as a whinging Karen from the leafy burbs of Kew? (& apologies to all Karens – every Karen I know is delightful and think we should adopt ‘Pauline’ as the alternative term for self entitled cookers).
Me too Victoria, but it’d probably end in tears – imagine the apoplexy of the murdoch and seven media group. Many in labor hate the greens (and vice versa) – Albo is one of the worst. That’s what happens when somebody with a bad conscious has to deal with someone who is a bit of self-righteous wanker (as greens often are). I wish they’d focus on the real enemy a bit more (the main issue being that labor still essentially has keating’s soft Thatcherite economic ethos, so doesn’t see the libs economic agenda and growing inequity as ‘the enemy’ ).
“someone who is a bit of self-righteous wanker (as greens often are).”
Thank you.
I’m a fully paid up Greens member.
And I am a self-righteous wanker.
So, again, I say Thank you!
I wouldn’t have thought being seen at a bikie rally was a good idea in the middle of an election campaign?
@William
Thank you for the fantastic seat projections page!
A suggestion I have if not too difficult is to highlight on the map which seats the model is projecting to flip – perhaps adding a yellow border, different shading, or a symbol in the middle of the district shape.
One thing I’ve been thinking about is whether there will be a “regression to the mean” in terms of swings at this election, since in 2022 there were quite significant swings against Labor in the outer north and west, while at the same time it made gains in the eastern suburbs which are almost certain to reverse.
For this reason I think your model might be overly bullish on Labor in seats like Ashwood, Box Hill and Ringwood, while overestimating One Nation in Greenvale, Kalkallo, Mill Park and Sydenham where it’s possible that the cohort of grievance voters has already largely deserted the government.
MABWM – I’m an ex- green member, will probably once again hand out their how to vote cards, and will preference them and other more progressive candidates ahead of labor, but the self-righteous wankery is something the greens need to be more self aware / less stereotypical about. The number of candidates who look like (and have the upper middle class first name and double-barrelled surname) of a greens parody is not the way to appeal to a wider electorate.
William
In the election guide, you have the One Nation candidate for Geelong ‘To be announced’
John De Lorenzo was announced this morning.
___________________
John is a father of 2 adult children. Born in Colac, John has strong ties to regional Victoria providing deep understanding of regional communities, agriculture and industry.
John now lives in Geelong where he has built a career with more than 20 years’ experience in Geelong’s manufacturing and export industries.
John has an MBA and brings practical commercial experience, strategic thinking and a strong focus on accountability and results, having managed people, resources, financial performance, and productivity within complex and competitive business environments.
John’s commitment to community service includes many years serving on regional and rural health service boards, including a term as Board Chair.
Providing firsthand insight into the challenges facing regional health services and communities. He has also volunteered on school and sporting club boards.
In 2025, John stood as an independent candidate for the federal seat of Corio, reflecting his belief that voters deserve genuine local representation.
John is now joining One Nation to contest the Victorian electoral district of Geelong.
His decision reflects his belief that Victoria needs stronger government accountability, greater financial discipline, less bureaucracy and a stronger focus on practical outcomes for families, workers, businesses and local communities.
John’s priorities for Geelong include easing cost-of-living pressures, improving local infrastructure and services, supporting manufacturing and local employment, strengthening communities, reducing unnecessary bureaucracy and ensuring Geelong has a strong voice in the Victorian Parliament.
John is not entering politics as a career politician, he believes voters deserve a representative who understands the real-world experience and understanding the consequences of government decisions, asks difficult questions and hold governments accountable.
Real experience. Independent judgement. Practical solutions. A stronger voice for Geelong.
The Herald Sun reports today: “Herald Sun poll conducted by Freshwater Strategy finds voters would rather a Coalition-One Nation government than a Labor-Greens government”:
“The Herald Sun poll conducted by Freshwater Strategy found voters would rather a Coalition-One Nation government than a Labor-Greens government, 49 to 41 per cent, while 10 per cent were undecided.”
“Among the 1030 voters surveyed between September 24 and 28, 55 per cent said the prospect of a Coalition-One Nation government was likely to affect their vote, compared with 46 per cent who said the same of a Labor-Greens government.”
“As revealed by the Herald Sun last week, the poll revealed Labor’s primary vote had dropped one point to 24 per cent and one point for the Coalition to 29 per cent since August, while One Nation (22) and the Greens (14) remained steady.”
And an eye-catching “shock” seat poll for Footscray, apparently only able to be published in the Daily Mail:
“The Greens-commissioned survey of 1,000 voters, conducted between September 22 and October 1, puts One Nation on 28.6 per cent of the primary vote, narrowly ahead of Labor on 27.5 per cent.”
“If reflected at the ballot box, the figures would represent a 15.6 percentage point collapse in Labor’s primary vote in just four years.”
“The poll places the Liberals on 15.1 per cent, the Greens on 14.9 per cent, and other parties and independents on a combined 13.9 per cent.”
Interestingly, “A Greens spokesperson has disputed the poll – claiming their vote in the electorate is over 30 per cent – despite it being leaked by Greens and Labor sources.”
Victoria – Carroll says he’ll refuse to govern requiring the green votes, same arrangement as Tasmania I guess. Same outcome I project – a very long spell in the wilderness.
@Nadia
We have new regional details from the Freshwater poll but it’s pretty vague
‘Regional VIC’:
ALP: 24
LNP: 30
ONP: 26
Melbourne:
ALP: 24
LNP: 29
ONP: 21
So according to this poll it’s really just oscillations between the ONP and presumably the Green vote that is dictating the state of play between Melbourne and the regions
Thanks Max.
Above reported by the Herald Sun:
“The Freshwater Strategy poll of 1030 Victorian voters, conducted between September 24 to 28, shows One Nation’s vote has risen to 26 per cent in regional Victoria while the Coalition’s primary vote has grown to 30 per cent — one point higher than the statewide average — both well ahead of Labor’s 24 per cent.”
“It compares to One Nation’s 21 per cent vote share in Melbourne, which trails both the Coalition on 29 and Labor on 24.”
“The regional vote share has means on a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor 57 per cent to 43 per cent in the regions, a nine-point gap compared with a four-point margin in Melbourne, where the Coalition leads 52 to 48.”
“The poll also found 55 per cent of Victorians believed it was time to give the Coalition a chance in government, compared with 33 per cent who believed Labor had done enough to deserve re-election.”
The Victorian Coalition should be happy with the regional breakdowns given it has good leads in both regional Victoria and Melbourne – and should benefit further from preferences. Though it’s annoying we don’t have Melbourne divided into outer and inner metro – only DemosAU and Redbridge have been consistent in releasing detailed regional breakdowns for Victoria.
In surprisingly good news for Victorian Labor, Roy Morgan have released on their website a seat prediction based on “seat by seat analysis of Roy Morgan data from the past 6 months, with preferences allocated based on how electors said they would vote”. The numbers are:
– ALP 40 (-16) seats
– GRN 6 (+2) seats
– L/NP 31 (+3) seats
– ONP 11 (+11) seats
This would result in a Labor minority! Very little information is provided otherwise.
Thanks for this NF, fascinating numbers. While there’s life, there’s hope
Looking forward to seeing the full report
It’s ridiculous from Carroll to say he won’t work with the Greens
Surely the right answer to that question, especially in the current environment, is to say something along the lines of
We will work with the Parliament the voters elect
I think one factor Ben Carroll at least for now ruling out to consider governing with the Greens might be due to Shoebridge’s Ukraine comment.
Yeah nah Marh, he’s a Shoppie, of course he hates the Greens
He thinks it’s smart politics to try and distance himself, all it does is make himself look stupid if he backs down
The question for Labor, and the Greens, if that’s where it lands, and I hope it does, is if Carroll won’t do it as leader, is there someone else who will?
Sure as hell beats taking the Tasmanian approach
Hard Being Green – Agree they’re fascinating numbers. I’m a bit sceptical until I see further information though. The line “data from the past 6 months” is alarming – a seat result modelled like this would be much more likely on Roy Morgan’s February or April primaries than their more recent August primaries. The Coalition winning 3 seats compared to One Nation winning 11 seems unlikely now.
I’m guessing most Victorians don’t know who Mamdani is, hopefully some are about to find out
State owned supermarkets and copying his approach on crime, which appears to be having results in NYC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-08/victoria-greens-state-supermarkets-election-campaign/107239256