Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September (open thread)

Detailed polling for the last quarter credits One Nation with a towering lead in Queensland, and finds Labor losing ground among lower-income earners.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, which are notable in having both major parties well down on the April-June aggregation in Queensland (Labor down five to 25%, the Coalition down three to 19%, the Greens up three to 12% and One Nation up four to 36%) and the Coalition running fourth in South Australia (Labor steady on 32%, One Nation down one to 31%, Greens steady on 14%, Coalition down three to 13%), albeit that the sample in the latter case is only 369.

As well as being well ahead of both major parties in Queensland, One Nation is one point clear in New South Wales and only one point behind Labor in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor is down five among the 35-to-49 age cohort, compared with one to three among the other three, and One Nation is up four among 18-to-34 and three among 35-to-49, while being little changed among the older cohorts, although the party’s support is still by some distance weakest among 18-to-34. Labor is down six points among those on incomes below $50,000 and, no doubt relatedly, eight points among renters, while One Nation is respectively up four and five.

The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 13 and September 18 from an overall sample of 4967.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 thoughts on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September (open thread)”

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  1. Griffsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:09 pm
    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:03 pm
    What has the no-name handmaiden got that Faruqi has not got?
    A bit of a Greens mystery, that one.

    Hyphenated surname? Environmental lawyer? Anglo-Celtic background? Perhaps there is more.
    ________________________________________
    Well if it makes you feel any better, and I’m sure it will, both her parents died in horrific circumstances.

  2. nath says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:31 pm
    Griffsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:09 pm
    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:03 pm
    What has the no-name handmaiden got that Faruqi has not got?
    A bit of a Greens mystery, that one.

    Hyphenated surname? Environmental lawyer? Anglo-Celtic background? Perhaps there is more.
    ________________________________________
    Well if it makes you feel any better, and I’m sure it will, both her parents died in horrific circumstances.

    _________

    No it doesn’t, nath. Ill of you to think that.

  3. Griffsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:35 pm

    You should probably just apologise for the earlier inference and be done with it.

  4. “Meadow Heights has it easier than the suburbs further north. It at least has 22 hospitals within 15 kilometres”.
    That is nuts. A quick look on google maps can tell you that. Even if you give the most generous area (a 15km square box), there is 4. Broadmeadows Hospital, Craigeburn Community Hospital and with one private & one public North Epping hospital. Even if you threw in La Trobe & Northpark Private that’s still only 6.

    To get anywhere close to 22 you have to draw a 30km diameter circle from the middle and then you could capture Keilor, Sunshine, a few in Brunswick, Sunbury and get to a dozen or so.

    Silly.

  5. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:16 pm
    Diogenes says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:13 pm

    I like the visuals of a death row inmate having an attempted execution ending in a lights and siren rush to a hospital.

    Bizarre. Life imitating art… the bring out yer dead monty python skit.

    ——–

    It appears the Supreme Court of the Universe granted her clemency.

  6. Griffsays:

    No it doesn’t, nath. Ill of you to think that.
    ________________
    I feel for ya. A young woman you know nothing about is elected deputy of her party and all you wan’t to do is put shit on her. By the way, her hyphenated name is a tribute to her deceased parents’.

    Poor you.

  7. Strange Fruit says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:39 pm
    Griffsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:35 pm

    You should probably just apologise for the earlier inference and be done with it.

    _______

    What inference? I stated facts. Awkward facts.

  8. nath says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:43 pm
    Griffsays:

    No it doesn’t, nath. Ill of you to think that.
    ________________
    I feel for ya. A young woman you know nothing about is elected deputy of her party and all you wan’t to do is put shit on her. By the way, her hyphenated name is a tribute to her deceased parents’.

    Poor you.

    ____________

    I knew deep down you are just a softie 🙂

  9. David, there is a lot of truth in the assertion that the current interest rates are having a greater impact than the (much higher) rates in the late 80s/early 90s. That’s because the average house price and therefore the average mortgage is a much higher proportion of annual earnings now, than it was then. A slight increase in interest rate on a big mortgage has a greater impact on available household funds than a higher rate on a small mortgage.

    Yes, there are lots of reasons for that – including Philip Lowe who did his best to mislead borrowers into thinking rates would stay low. Government “sugar hits” for borrowers have also not helped. And there is some likely impact of the financial inexperience of high rates among young borrowers generally.

    But blaming the borrowers is not a solution. The stand-out problem is high house prices as a proportion of earnings. Sadly, nothing will solve that for folk who have committed to high mortgages at low interest rates, and who must now suffer the impost of high and increasing repayments.

  10. Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:44 pm

    What inference? I stated facts. Awkward facts.

    —————–

    You know what I was talking about. Nath has already dragged you over the coals, so I will desist. But do yourself a favour and try not getting sucked in so easily by Boerwar’s latest idiocy.

  11. Strange Fruit says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:53 pm
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:44 pm

    What inference? I stated facts. Awkward facts.

    —————–

    You know what I was talking about. Nath has already dragged you over the coals, so I will desist, but do yourself a favour and try not getting sucked in so easily by Boerwar’s latest idiocy.

    __________

    Are you sure? Where nath leads good people surely must follow 🙂

  12. “They’ve renovated old Tangaras, saving millions on having to buy new trains. Good? Nah. “The Opposition Says” NSW taxpayers deserve better than tarted-up hand-me-downs.”
    Reminds me of the simultaneously whinging in the mainstream media (ABC, Murdoch Rags, Guardian) about how evil the Labor government in Victoria is for spending so much on rail, then up north how evil the Labor government in NSW is for not spending enough on rail.

  13. Griffsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 7:55 pm

    Are you sure? Where nath leads good people surely must follow

    —————-

    He is fairly amusing.

  14. She’s done very well for herself.

    Got the senate job by default.

    Got the deputy leadership job after two years of nothinigburgers by hanging onto Shoebridge’s coat tails.

    She’s done very well out of SH-Y’s ‘brutal’ politics.

    No wonder Faruqi is totally pissed off.

    Still, having a leadership team of TWO lawyers, one a millionaire marxist from a suburb with a median house value of $4.5 million, is exactly the sort of team likely to appeal to swinging ON voters.

  15. BW, I have consulted MY pet octopus – Kees, by name (he’s Dutch) – and he predicts a drop in the opinion polls for the Greens in forthcoming polls.

    I agree with Kees.

  16. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 8:03 pm

    She’s done very well for herself.

    Got the senate job by default.

    Got the deputy leadership job after two years of nothinigburgers by hanging onto Shoebridge’s coat tails.

    —————-

    Lacking in qualifications to be the deputy leader of an environmentalist party, is she?

    She is in fact, better qualified to be the Environment Minister than the current Environment Minister.

  17. The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned that first home buyers who used the Albanese government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme face a greater risk of falling into negative equity as property prices head towards their biggest correction in four decades, fuelled by four interest rate rises this year.
    Releasing its six-monthly health check of the Australian financial system today, the RBA found households overall had enough savings and cash-flow buffers to manage the stress caused by rising interest rates and high inflation, but financial distress was building among low-income borrowers.
    The release of the Financial Stability Review comes just two days after the RBA raised the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent, a decision expected to amplify the sharpest housing market downturn in four decades.
    Figures from Cotality show the median property value in Sydney falling more than $112,000 since a February peak and declines in other major capital cities accelerating.

  18. Strange Fruit said –

    She is in fact, better qualified to be the Environment Minister than the current Environment Minister.

    ——————————–

    Please link what she said today about her plans to protect the environment.

  19. Michele Bullock is the greatest politician the Liberal Party has had for 6 years. She doesn’t let a day go to waste without attacking the Government. She won’t be happy until unemployment is doubled along with the mortgage rate.

  20. I must be watching different ABC broadcasts, as the coverage on house prices and interest rates seemed pretty sober and even-handed to me.

  21. Americans are increasingly frustrated with President Trump about the cost of living these days, and most hold him responsible for higher-than-usual prices.

    Sixty-five percent of adults overall say higher-than-usual prices are the result of Trump’s policies, while 67% of Republicans say higher prices are due to factors beyond the president’s control. In October 2022, 44% of the public said higher prices were a result of then-President Biden’s policies, and 87% of Democrats said the prices were beyond his control.

    Trump is also falling short of expectations on the cost of living, with 69% of the public saying his handling of the issue has been worse than expected, including 52% of Republicans.
    https://apnorc.org/projects/most-blame-president-trump-for-higher-prices-and-are-unhappy-with-how-he-is-handling-the-economy/

  22. Yeah, which makes it an incredible own goal. Instead of a pro-worker head of the RBA we have a corporate stooge who doesn’t care about the wreckage her desire for mass unemployment and gigantic cuts to public services will cause.

    Or at least someone who will shut up and not run their mouth attacking the workers for wanting better pay, conditions and jobs.

  23. Sarah Hanson-Young has spoken out about major divisions in the Greens party room, offering support to newly elected leader David Shoebridge and describing politics as “brutal”.
    The South Australian senator contested Wednesday’s leadership ballot, finishing behind Shoebridge and outgoing deputy leader, Mehreen Faruqi. Former leader Larissa Waters shocked colleagues by resigning on Monday, over serious health concerns.
    Hanson-Young was eliminated after the first ballot with only two votes.
    “God, politics can be brutal,” she said in a video posted to social media, after a bush walk with her husband on Thursday. “Friendships made and lost, but it takes all types. We all care so deeply about the future of this country and the future of the planet.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/oct/01/politics-can-be-brutal-sarah-hanson-young-speaks-out-about-divisions-within-greens

  24. shellbell:

    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 6:26 pm

    ‘Wonder how often NSW has joined QLD in a High Court argument when different political parties are in power.’

    Burns v Corbett (2018), where NSW (Berejiklian) was the Appellant; and Qld (Palaszczuk) & three other states were Interveners, though it is not quite on point, as the appeal concerned constitutional issues, but you didn’t qualify your question thus.

    https://www.hcourt.gov.au/sites/default/files/eresources/2018/HCA/15.pdf

  25. davesays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 8:27 pm

    Please link what she said today about her plans to protect the environment.

    ———————

    I haven’t the first clue what she said today about the environment. How about you just tell everyone what she said and let them judge for themselves?

  26. Luigi Smith says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 8:10 pm

    BW, I have consulted MY pet octopus – Kees, by name (he’s Dutch) – and he predicts a drop in the opinion polls for the Greens in forthcoming polls.

    I agree with Kees.

    Bluey reckons that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

    Kees could be on the money. Bludger Track is on 13.2% following a slight upward trend recently. That is 1% up since the last election. One per cent is Water’s claim to fame.

    Shoebridge is not personally likable or, as they like to say, relatable. His ‘profile’ is almost designed to push all the ‘wrong’ buttons for the culture war Greens.

    He doesn’t seem to give much of a stuff for Koalas.

    He was good mates with Red Rhiannon. The Koala faction and the Culture War factions ran her out of the Party.

    But the Trots have won now. Which explains why no-name got up.

    In his unbridled ambition, Shoebridge has seriously pissed off a significant real leader in Faruqi… I know, I know.

    Thorpe, Cox… Faruqi? I doubt that Faruqi will follow Thorpe and Cox into eventual electoral oblivion. She will hang around and go for Greens No 1 in 2029. Between then and now she owes Shoebridge and No-name nothing but trouble.

    My guess, FWIW, is that the Greens are going to bounce around in a narrow range with 12% in the middle.

  27. Pegasussays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 8:35 pm

    Bullock was appointed by Chalmers.

    ————–

    He hired her, he’s also for responsible for firing her before she deliberately causes a recession he will then get blamed for.

  28. I wonder if there are any similarities between yesterday’s FlyDubai FZ 981 cockpit fight and the Malaysian Airlines MH 370 disappearance.

    I guess we’ll never know.

  29. The UK’s long-term borrowing costs have climbed to their highest level since 1998 after a global rout in bond markets deepened.
    Yields on 30-year gilts, which determine the interest the Treasury pays to borrow over that period, broke above 6pc for the first time in 28 years on Thursday amid growing concerns of inflation.
    It marks the first time that any G7 nation has faced an interest rate of more than 6pc on its debt since Italy during the eurozone debt crisis in 2012.

  30. 55 seems to be a bit long in the tooth for the youth party leader. He is not really young at heart, either.

    More like a grumpy old man shouting at the clouds.

    He will be 57 at the next election and an ancient sixty by the end of the next government.

    Do the Greens have a mandatory retirement age?

  31. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 9:01 pm

    The UK’s long-term borrowing costs have climbed to their highest level since 1998 after a global rout in bond markets deepened.
    Yields on 30-year gilts, which determine the interest the Treasury pays to borrow over that period, broke above 6pc for the first time in 28 years on Thursday amid growing concerns of inflation.
    It marks the first time that any G7 nation has faced an interest rate of more than 6pc on its debt since Italy during the eurozone debt crisis in 2012.

    Thanks. Burnham’s heart is in the right place, IMO. But what real life policy options does he have?

  32. When the GOP senator is down or on par in Kansas, trouble looms for Trump:

    ‘The Republicans have not lost a Senate seat in Kansas for almost a century. The last time was during the farm foreclosures of the Great Depression in 1932, when Franklin Roosevelt crushed Herbert Hoover in a tectonic landslide.
    …
    But Hoover is what he (Trump) risks becoming across the Prairies, where the Iran war has pushed farmers to the brink and a flock of Trump 2.0 chickens are coming home to roost.

    The Cook Political Report says a once rock-solid Republican Senate seat in Kansas is starting to look like a “dead heat” in the midterms. The Democratic rival was ahead in the last two polls.

    RealClearPolitics polling has moved neighbouring Nebraska from “lean Republican” to “toss-up”.

    Iowa’s Republican senate candidate is eight points behind in the latest poll. She is calling for a “successful and immediate” end to the war in Iran – a contradiction in terms and one that also confounds the White House. Trump announced a subsidised $US15 billion ($21.6 billion) steel plant in Iowa to try to save the seat.

    The US constitutional quirk is that agrarian states are vastly overweighted in the Senate due to the Connecticut Compromise of 1787. What happens to them will determine whether Trump loses control of both chambers of Congress in five weeks.

    It will determine whether he succeeds in breaking America’s public and private institutions and establishing, perhaps irreversibly, an authoritarian, winner-takes-all, clan-based state in alliance with a hubristic tech oligarchy.

    It will tell the world whether the American people are finally going to rein in the belligerent fabulist that they so recklessly unleashed a second time.

    Did Trump ever imagine that his masked immigration “ICE” agents would cause such chaos in the rural economy and meat-packing industry of a state like Kansas?

    “These ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table and keep the cattle supply chain moving,” said the Kansas Livestock Association last week.

    Total US farm debt has hit $US605 billion. Trump’s war has added to the pain.

    Did he imagine that his attacks on Canada might cost him a state so far from the border? It turns out that Bombardier has large operations in Wichita and the workers are scared after he threatened to ban sales of Canadian aircraft in the US.

    Grain farmers saw a collapse of sorghum and soybean sales last year – to Brazil’s advantage – after China retaliated against Trump’s trade war. US cattle farmers fared better because of high beef prices.

    Then came Trump’s tariff waiver on 300,000 tonnes of imported beef, flooding the US market with meat in time for the midterms – much of it from Argentina, which US taxpayers had earlier rescued with a $US40 billion bailout.

    The American Farm Bureau Federation says Chapter 12 bankruptcies across the rural Midwest rose 70 per cent last year as farmers were squeezed by the rising cost of farm machinery, chemicals and inputs. Large numbers are sinking deeper into debt to stay afloat.’

    – SMH

  33. Luigi Smith says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 9:00 pm

    I wonder if there are any similarities between yesterday’s FlyDubai FZ 981 cockpit fight and the Malaysian Airlines MH 370 disappearance.

    I guess we’ll never know.

    Good question, IMO. And, yes, we’ll likely never know.

  34. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 9:01 pm

    Do the Greens have a mandatory retirement age?

    ——————–

    Do you need another poem?

  35. Sloan on the Greens leadership vote:

    https://youtu.be/3LDOFpWIwPc (~ 9 ½ mins)

    He believes that it was the right decision for the Greens, whose vote is stuck at 12%. Will it help them break out? Ms Farqui would not have. Shoebridge? Maybe – we’ll have to wait and see.

  36. Mavis says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 9:07 pm

    When the GOP senator is down or on par in Kansas, trouble looms for Trump:
    …

    All true. And it builds a cumulative load on an ag sector which is increasingly controlled by monopolies or near monopolies in seed, fertilizer and farm machinery supplies. The farmers are allowed just enough income to keep farming while they slowly sink under ever increasing mountains of debt.

  37. AI:

    Old Boerwar stands upon his lawn,
    Complaining loudly since the dawn.
    He glares across the picket fence
    At Harold, shouting with no sense.

    “The cumulus is not your foe!”
    Bawls Boerwar at the silly show.
    “Stop bellowing at misty grey
    And wasting half a Tuesday away!”

    Yet Boerwar does not see the jest:
    He yells at Harold, sore oppressed—
    Two ancient storms of wrath and doubt,
    Both screaming what the wind blows out

  38. In politics you only can believe the people who tell you to your face that they did not vote for you.

    If you want a friend – get a dog. (But not a Black Labrador according the the UK Labour Nature Minister)

  39. Yet more parlous polling for Trump personally, and there’s little he can do to turn it around, as there are only 33 days to the midterms.

    ‘WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are deeply frustrated with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and rising prices, with most panning his performance and blaming his policies as higher costs threaten his party’s chances in November.

    A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that only 17% of U.S. adults approve of the Republican president’s handling of the cost of living. Just 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, marking a new low.’

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-economy-approval-trump-midterms-8d5809758a31b29c73f4351a8008147c?user_email=d2d27b71c44e06ed5ebdc3f22c370344cbf8e0127f9adda52a32116d26aa498f&utm_medium=Morning_Wire&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=Morning%20Wire%20Thursday%20Oct%201%2C%202026&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers

  40. Sixty seems awfully ancient for a Greens leader aspiring to the youth brand, but Bob Brown started at 60 and ended at 67.

    So there is a precedent for a grumpy old Greens man shouting at the clouds.

  41. I think Shoebridge was a shrewd appointment for the times we are in.

    His previous work in senate estimates and hearings have been very good.

    His ability to communicate clearly on key issues impacting voters and the ineptness of some of the policy decisions being made across a wide range of areas will hopefully lead to some cut through for the Greens.

  42. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 9:23 pm

    So there is a precedent for a grumpy old Greens man shouting at the clouds.

    ——————

    Did you enjoy it?

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