The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, which are notable in having both major parties well down on the April-June aggregation in Queensland (Labor down five to 25%, the Coalition down three to 19%, the Greens up three to 12% and One Nation up four to 36%) and the Coalition running fourth in South Australia (Labor steady on 32%, One Nation down one to 31%, Greens steady on 14%, Coalition down three to 13%), albeit that the sample in the latter case is only 369.
As well as being well ahead of both major parties in Queensland, One Nation is one point clear in New South Wales and only one point behind Labor in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor is down five among the 35-to-49 age cohort, compared with one to three among the other three, and One Nation is up four among 18-to-34 and three among 35-to-49, while being little changed among the older cohorts, although the party’s support is still by some distance weakest among 18-to-34. Labor is down six points among those on incomes below $50,000 and, no doubt relatedly, eight points among renters, while One Nation is respectively up four and five.
The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 13 and September 18 from an overall sample of 4967.
Mr Koch, a long-time financial commentator and the Economic Director for Compare the Market Australia, argues high oil prices are also driving up inflation, but Canberra’s spending has “gone unchecked and under the radar” for several years while the Iran war has become a “convenient scapegoat”. “The other big driver is government spending, which is at levels equivalent to the pandemic, when they actually had to spend a lot of money to stop us from going into a great depression, so it was warranted,” he told news.com.au.
“Now it’s business as usual and they’re spending at the same level. You talk to builders and they go, ‘God, we can’t get any staff because all of these government projects are paying so much money’.
“All these infrastructure and energy transition projects are bumping up the cost of labour. Public sector wages are growing about one per cent more than private sector wages… These sorts of things, I reckon, need to be called out.”
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/breaking-point-david-koch-unleashes-on-government-rba-before-expected-interest-rate-hike/news-story/d796b807fef6a8484e36275704d33ff6
Well I’ll be, Mr Koch.
A government spending money on needed infrastructure and the renewable transition.
We need to stop that right now or we’ll go broke and interest rates will go up.
Let’s just stop government spending now and spend massively to catch up in a few years.
We are so lucky that people of the mindset of Koch are nowhere near the treasury benches
Some of these economists have NFI!
Go the SA Greens, hopefully just the first domino to fall
Seem a no brainer that there should be law changes to clarify the position here. Providing board and lodging should be treated differently, on all fronts, to being a traditional landlord. Rules could be around the owner remaining a resident of the property
So many empty bedrooms while we have people living in tents and cars
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-28/homeowners-who-want-to-rent-spare-bedrooms-worry-tax/107174184
Mary Peltola, Democratic senate candidate for Alaska is leading in the polls. She has an authentic back story…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/27/us/politics/mary-peltola-alaska-senate.html
I’ve been busy and have only just got to AEMO’s last Quarterly Energy Dynamics report:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2026/qed-q2-2026.pdf
Mild weather, an increase in renewable energy and an influx of batteries (large and small) in the National Electricity Market led to plummeting fossil fuel use and prices in the second quarter.
The increase in renewable energy at the expense of fossil fuels was notable with gas-fired generation 30% lower than in Q2 2025 and at its lowest Q2 average since 2003:
The Cheaper Home Batteries program proved its worth:
That and the tripling of big batteries squashed the duck curve:
Reduced peak prices lowered wholesale prices across the board:
The ABC have an article about the SA blackout from 10 years ago. Their idea of an impartial commentator is Danny Price, an agricultural economist who is best known for the dodgy nuclear modelling (which he provided for free) used by Dutton in the last election. The following article is written by a competent person:
https://theenergy.co/articles/lessons-from-south-australias-2016-blackout
Re Ireland, it is clear that “Loyalists” have not been loyal for decades, least of all to his Majesty’s elected government and by extension, His Majesty, and I suspect they actually despise him.
Nor are they Unionists, for much the same reason. Union with an entity they obviously despise, and if Scotland leaves not sure what they are. And even if by some Nationalist fantasy had them all repatriated across the Irish Sea, I doubt Scotland would want them.
We saw this in South Africa, one of the Afrikaaner resistance militia called themselves the “Low German/Dutch Resistance Movement” and I thought there is no way you guys would survive in modern Netherlands. You are pathetic Boers, farmers in a world that doesn’t need boorish stockmen, in the Netherlands farming means giant greenhouses with people who’ve studied plant husbandry to the nth degree.
A transplanted identity no longer relevant in the modern world. I doubt more than a few English kids these days have heard of King Billy and the Boyne and all that.
Kochie & Hughsey, figures
Having travelled extensively across Iran- it is not a full of religiously crazed ideologues….. Guess what, it is full of friendly ordinary people getting on with their lives. And by friendly I mean the most open and friendly people – highly educated and civilised.
Women do wear a head covering though. I mixed in Christian and Jewish communities- even gay areas. I am sure there is some hostility to minorities- but have we noticed the rantings of One Nation here or Trump?
People openly hated the religious regime- and I mean everyone…sadly they are trapped.
Been There
David Koch is not an economist. He has never trained or worked as one. He is a former finance journalist who now works promoting financial products.
He is no better qualified to understand or run the economy than Barnaby Joyce.
Low income earners are the same people who will get scammed by Indian scammers
The same people who voted for Trump in the last election
https://www.ft.com/content/6de668c7-64e9-4196-b2c5-9ceca966fe3f?syn-25a6b1a6=1
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https://www.ft.com/content/6de668c7-64e9-4196-b2c5-9ceca966fe3f?syn-25a6b1a6=1
The results also show poorer and less-educated voters now think Republicans best represent them — a reversal from 12 years ago, when Democrat Barack Obama was president.
After a deep-dive into the data, here are five takeaways.
Simple facts reallly
Dog whistling works
Nicely said, Socrates. Koch is a third-rate product of commercial TV. And a boofhead to boot.
It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out from Thursday
Good move from the government, the fact the fees cost us $6 billion per year shows how much little amounts add up
Hopefully business is transparent about how they apply the changes. I’d rather know what I’m paying up front than copping a fee when I pay, even if that means small price increases
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-28/surcharge-ban-interchange-fees-impacts-businesses-and-customers/106660248
I see that the dirt file units have finally done some forensic work on the Rhinehart grab for backroom political power.
Elon Musk eat your heart out.
The Newspoll Quarterlies are trending to a Hanson/Taylor government by 2029.
The various anti-Labor slaggers will then have their heart’s desire.
Anyway, the big news of late is moths – mostly Bogongs, but also others. On the S-Coast, in addition to the more populated areas:
https://thenightly.com.au/australia/why-are-there-so-many-moths-bogong-moths-swarm-sydney-illawarra-and-central-coast-c-22932303
E. coli outbreak linked to raw milk cheese brand: CDC, FDA: https://abcnews.com/GMA/News/coli-outbreak-linked-raw-milk-cheese-brand-cdc/story?id=136766868
Trump, 80, Gets Loudly Booed at College Football Game: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-80-gets-loudly-booed-at-college-football-game/
Trump Heckled With Profane Accusation on Live TV: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-heckled-with-profane-accusation-on-live-tv/
Amnesty International calls for abolishing ICE: https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2026/09/24/amnesty-international-ice-abolition-chicago-minneapolis-immigration-enforcement-abuses
White House airs another government-funded ad, this time with Trump warning of ‘final battle’: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/27/politics/white-house-trump-government-funded-ad
OpenAI halts training of latest models as reports mount of AI agents going rogue: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/27/openai-halts-training-of-latest-models-as-reports-mount-of-ai-agents-going-rogue
U.K. police arrest 5 near airbase used by U.S. on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-air-base-england-police-investigation-9.7360081
Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran ready for ‘doomsday’ war with U.S., but leaves diplomacy on the table: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/27/iran-foreign-minister-keeps-indirect-talks-with-us-open-state-media.html
12 men against 13 for more than half the match. I’ve never been prouder of the Newcastle Knights:
“Knights stun Panthers to book NRL grand final berth after Nathan Cleary suffers compound fracture”
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/sep/27/penrith-panthers-nathan-cleary-suffers-compound-fracture-nrl-preliminary-final-newcastle-knights
“Knights earn date with destiny as Nathan Cleary’s injury puts Panthers dynasty on the brink”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-27/panthers-knights-cleary-nrl-grand-final/107201360
While the Newspoll quarterly polls tell part of the story they can be a bit misleading because there is quite a bit of movement during a quarter
Overall though, I guess they align with where things sit more broadly i.e.
One Nation likely leading, unfortunately
Labor well sub 30 and potentially headed for sub 25
LNP sub 20
Greens in the teens
Others around 10 or so
Combined “majors” sub 50
All that leads to #PlentyIn28
Bring on Morgan this afternoon
Time for work, Mondays suck. Enjoy your day folks
Well said BK
@HBG:
“Overall though, I guess they align with where things sit more broadly i.e.”
Except that isnt likely to be telling the complete story.
The rise of ON seems to be creating a polarised – mainly, but not exclusively – three cornered contest where by polls that focus on the traditional metrics of national primary votes and 2PP are really missing the action.
IMO, it is likely that Labor’s primary votes and 2PP has collapsed in rural Australia and those regional centres that it has already lost over the past decade (think Rockhampton and Gladstone) and has more generally, has frayed significantly because of the ongoing economic pressures occasioned by ‘sticky inflation’ and a misdirection amongst ‘low information’ voters to ‘blame Albo’ for everything, even things manifestly caused by other actors (especially Donald Dipshit).
What does that actually mean, with 20 months still to run until the next FE? IMo, it is an unknown, but we are getting very little guidance from current polling – which seems to me to serve only one purpose – to enable Albo gaslighting by the Labor phobics across the political spectrum. In this regard the Pegasus’s and P1’s of this world are no different from Hanson, Gina and Jane Hume.
I think we will get a better picture of ‘where the winds are blowing, and how hard they are blowing’ in the next round of Redbridge MRP polling (not that they are accurate in terms of seat counts, but they do serve a purpose). In the meantime my best guess is as follows (assuming and election was called for this year);
Labor will be comfortably returned in about 70+ seats it currently holds (inner urbs, middle ring metro and outer metro seats that are multicultural and with a higher than typical eduction rates).
Labor would also make the 2CP in another 60+ seats.
And then:
Because of the absolute fracturing of the right and centre-right, IMO:
The Teals and ‘Centre-alliance’ type MPs will all hold their seats, and a couple more LNP seats may fall to them;
The LNP will lose at least half of their current holdings, mainly to ON, but a couple may go to Labor and Teal/Centre Alliance type Indis; and critically
Of the 20 odd seats that Labor holds in regions, peri-urban and outer suburban rim seats, it manages to hold onto – and see off ON – in about half to two thirds of these.
Thereby leaving Labor with a comfortable majority in the lower house of something between 80 and 90 seats.
One last thought. at the moment, federal Labor is suffering from the slow corrosion of a co-ordinated ‘Get Albo’ campaign that kicked off last year when he was on his honeymoon and the feedback loop caused by sour economic conditions. With another 20 months to run, this could end up blowing Labor out of the water, especially with a potential 2-3 rate rises and the intractability of both the Ukraine war, and the absolute clusterfuck that threatens global trade via both the Gulf and the Red Sea thanks to the axis of idiots (Bibi and Dipshit). So there is that.
ABC: Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher are today set to unveil a $6 billion improvement to the federal budget.
The Final Budget Outcome for 2025-26 is expected to show a deficit $6 billion lower than the $28.3 billion deficit forecast in the budget in May.
The announcement comes just a day before the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to increase interest rates for the fourth time this year.
Labor’s weakness among working age voters in WA may reflect growing frustration with strained public services and bureaucratic dysfunction. The government may recognise the problem, but finding a way to address it without further exposing it is difficult.
I’m not surprised Roger Cook moved from Kwinana to West Perth for 2 reasons:
1. He has so many problems to fix he might as well live in his office.
2. The Kwinana Freeway is so congested, commuting in could leave him working from his car for half the day.
HH thanks for the international roundup. World security and economy still looks shaky.
Which is why the following news should be celebrated rather than listening to David Koch. How can government spending be too high if the budget deficit is improving??
Interest rates are facing pressure internationally but the domestic economy is still OK.
They used to be regular October visitors to Sydney, diverted from their migration path and dragged to the coast by hot, dry Westerly winds. They’d get in everywhere – houses, city skyscrapers.
Some time before 2010 they disappeared. Good to see them back, but probably not so great for the moths on their way to the Snowys.
“ Which is why the following news should be celebrated rather than listening to David Koch. How can government spending be too high if the budget deficit is improving??”
_____
Most neo-classical and neo-liberal economists would say ‘YES’!!!
Kochie would seem to have half a point (always a dangerous position) in that the parts of the private sector we want to see ‘go’ to address the ongoing supply-chain backlogs IS competing with Government programs that are scooping the pool in terms of available labour in the workforce. In many ways this is a similar situation faced by the non-mining sector competing with trades that has beset the economy for the past quater of a century.
As with most things, the origins story behind this cluster fuck is John Howard and the LNP, who deliberately underinvested in vocational skills training in favour of importing skilled temporary visa workers.
IMO ‘the answer’ however is NOT to shut down government infrastructure programs (which is what both ON and the LNP want to do in Victoria) but to fast track more investment in upskilling the overall Labor market. IMO, the government should be looking again at a training wage scheme in critical areas of the economy, plus resisting the ‘migration cut’ idea – at least as it applies to those same sectors: because we need more, not less workers there.
Not just boofhead to the boot but boofhead of historic proportions. And yet he made truck load of money in this lucky country.
Andrew_Earlwood
And you honestly can’t understand why people like you turn others off your beloved party?
You, and the other Labor crusties here who simply can’t fathom the bipartisan parties steady decline (because that’s what it is, rather than a steady rise in No Notion support) – make me want to laugh. Or possibly cry.
AE
That is true in construction, which is Koch’s half point. The trouble is that Morrison spent a lot of money on low value pork. So Labor inherited both a large deficit and a backlog of needed infrastructure projects with a growing population.
The other contrary half point, is an increase in the size of the public service following a reversal of the Morrison government’s foolish policies that over-used consultants. That is needed too.
HH DP
And yet we call US a developed country. US has all the best medical technology in the world and yet have one of the poorly designed medical systems in atleast the developed world.
Remember, ‘heck of a job brownie’ for the work done New Orleans during Bush jr. years.
I am face palming thinking that Trump made Bush jr years look like a relatively calm years.
Australia has a deficit of about $22 billion ($US 15 billion). That’s less than 1% of GDP. On debt and deficit we’re doing great compared to most of the world, including the US, UK, France, Germany and most EU countries.
Not that anyone gets that message from the media.
“ And you honestly can’t understand why people like you turn others off your beloved party?”
_____
You always assume that you speak for ‘people’ P1.
You only speak for ‘people’ who are Labor phobic. Folk who don’t need me as a reason (but are often happy to sulk and blame shift when I call them out).
P1 – you are the Pepe LePew of Bludger.
Andrew_Earlwood
Nope. I’m the Roadrunner, and you are Wile.E.Coyote – you always find it surprising when there is no longer anything to support you.
From Dailykos
Has labor started handing out a “how to be insufferably condescending” guide at branch meetings or something?
Bad faith arguing is the least convincing thing yall can do, but it’s also what you seem to default to.
The first thing I’d point out is that it’s naive to think one nations popularity is confined to the regions. Those rather large “save Australia” or whatever rallies with people draping themselves in Australian flags were effectively one nation rallies held in every capital city. The call is coming from inside the house.
Next is the slight of “low information voters” engaging in a “get albo” campaign. Which is it, are they low information, or are they engaged in a political campaign, because I would intuitively think that someone who is engaged enough to want to “get albo” would be reasonably well informed. They may not be using the same sources or drawing the same conclusions as you, but that doesn’t make the “low information” barb stick, and it just makes you look pretentious.
The last and most obviously disenguous point is that the coalition, one nation, greens and everyone else are in some concerted way scheming to get albo merely out of malice or hate. It’s a ludicrous devaluing of any point of view but your own – as though nobody could possibly have their own informed political viewpoint and decide that the labor party isn’t the one that best represents them. Supporting another party doesn’t inherently make someone a conspirator in your made up plot.
You’re welcome to be a partisan – but gosh it makes you look silly when you strawman people.
South Africa won on day match against Australia by 32 runs
https://www.cricinfo.com/series/australia-in-south-africa-2026-27-1525634/south-africa-vs-australia-2nd-odi-1525656/full-scorecard
Temba Bavuma has blossomed as batsman after becoming captain. Australia were 191/2 to be all out 333
You can see the main Newspoll Q3 graphic in my Bluesky post, open the the post then click on the image to enlarge.
https://bsky.app/profile/leroylynch.bsky.social/post/3mwjwwrl7lk27
From Dailykos
Trump TV
– SMH
One swallow does not a summer make, but given that Oz was down four for a time, this was a great win. It also gives coach Les Kiss five in a row, showing that a change of coach can reap dividends. With the World Cup due next year in OZ, this win is a real morale booster.
Torchbearer@0715am
You will get no argument from me on this. It is the regime, with the basji and other informers, that is the problem. It seems a lot like the former East Germany and the Stasi.
Unfortunately, Trump has only strengthened the regime.
D&M I don’t know where you got your PhD, but I’m starting to think it was off the back of a Kellogs Cornflakes box, if this is your level of comprehension:
I never mentioned “leaving Iran alone”. I referred to Trump’s casual threats to “annihilate” the entire country, which is a lot different level of intervention to just “leaving them alone”, or not.
No country deserves to be annihilated, much less over their non-conformance to religious standards that you expect them to adopt. Islam has been the religion of Iran for 1,500 years or more. The Persian civilization goes back several thousand years further, back to when our own ancestors were still painting themselves blue. Let Iran decide what’s appropriate for Iran.
Yes, women have been persecuted there for not conforming to religious dictates, even unto death. Likewise, here, one woman a week is beaten, shot or burned to death for disobeying their husband or partner. Both situations are unacceptable. Let’s not single Iran out for annihilation, invasion or any other military prosecution over their failures before we sort out our own.
Trump doesn’t give a damn about women’s rights anywhere, whether that be Iran or America. He is not threatening to annihilate Iran because women there are oppressed. He is threatening to annihilate them simply because he can. He’s a psychopath, a serial killer, high on absolute power, enjoying the idea that if he wakes up in a bad mood he can go and kill someone to cheer himself up. Like all psychopaths, he started out small, sinking tinnies in the Caribbean, but his hunger for killing others – the ultimate power trip – needs more and more victims.
This isn’t the first time he’s mused about obliterating Iran, sending it – and it’s women and children that you seem so concerned about – “back into the Stone Age”. He did that first in a National address back in April. Now it’s resurfaced. Having exhausted the word “obliterate”, he’s turned to a new word: “annihilate”. You can tell he’s in love with the idea of annihilating an entire country. It’s clear he really wants to do it, but probably isn’t sure whether his generals and admirals would carry out the order. So he normalises the concept of pre-emptive annihilation in the meantime, inventing and reinventing a grievance, “nuclear weapons” (this time), to egg himself (and ultimately us) on, so as to keep the issue alive.
Trump is not championing your quaint notions of “womens’ rights” or “social justice” as regards Iran. You would be a fool for thinking that you can use him nevertheless to achieve the goals you deem desirable, like he’s some kind of useful idiot who can be steered in the right direction. Plenty of people before you have dealt with Trump on that basis before, to their regret and ruination.
He’s out to rule the world, not reform it. And if the world rejects him, the world can go to a hell of his making. Whatever you do, don’t look to Donald Trump for even collateral salvation. You’ll be bitterly disappointed if you do.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/mike-baird-resigns-as-cricket-australia-boss-amid-bbl-sale-fallout-boon-to-fill-role-20260928-p610y5.html
Mike Baird seems like a genuinely nice person – but he’s a true Liberal at heart. Hasn’t never seen anything collectively owned that he doesn’t think he cant sell…..
Boerwarsays:
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 7:37 am
The Newspoll Quarterlies are trending to a Hanson/Taylor government by 2029.
The various anti-Labor slaggers will then have their heart’s desire
—————————
ON is way ahead in Qld. We knew that’d be the case. Labor smash ON everywhere else once preferences are counted. Labor’s not losing 19 seats on that. Labor will lose 7 seats in Qld, a couple to the Greens, and be back normal there. Might drop a couple to ON in outer NSW regions. Won’t lose that many otherwise.
Maybe a few in the outer suburbs but they have plenty to play with. Even then I think those outer suburbs end up with Labor still once they work out ON aren’t on their side. Imagine those under $50000 thinking ON is going to help them. Can’t surely be that dumb. They vote against every Labor proposal in Parliament to help them. One election campaign will pur them straight, like the last time.
Midnight in Drumcree
And the Orangemen and Nationalists are still separated by a large police presence ( Scottish police reinforcements have been seen)
There are increasing Unionist calls to collapse the administration on the pretext that Sinn Fein and First minister, Michelle O’Neill are supporting the protestors; an illegal activity under the Public Processions (Northern Ireland) Act 1998.
I predict that a general election called under these circumstances would drive voters to their respective hard line parties. While this is unlikely to give the DUP first party status, it would be beneficial to them as they are currently under threat in the polls from both UUP and TUV.
The rise of the extreme parties – ON and Greens – will continue and potentially Socialist parties (although this is probably the Greens in Australia) as interest rates and inflation rise. These are long term issues and should be confused with short term spikes caused by wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. People with lose their houses, families break up and increase in lawless behaviour. In this environment people will look to a “strong man/woman” to lead. People forget that large swathes of Europe were under dictatorships in Europe in the 1930s (Poland, Baltic states, Hungary, Romania etc..) not just Italy, USSR and Germany. All arrived because of economic hardship. People talk of ON/LNP coalition, maybe it will Lib/Lab coalition.
Latest NI polling (July):
I didn’t realise DUP was in such a perilous situation – collapsing the assembly is probably their best way out. The election is due next May
Sinn Fein 22%
DUP 15%
Alliance 10%
UUP 16%
SDLP 13%
TUV 12%
Green 5%
Aontu 3%
People before Profits 2%
Other 2%
BB
We are not in disagreement about Trump’s dangerous bombing and threats towards Iran. And he has made the situation far worse for the people of Iran.
But the Iranian regime does a good line in propaganda, of which I am more than sceptical.