Unconnected electoral developments of the last fortnight or so:
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports the top end of Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket has been confirmed, with Penny Wong and Don Farrell unopposed for first and second position respectively. Starick notes that Farrell will be 80 by the end of a prospective six-year term beginning from mid-2028.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports a challenge to Liberal MP Angie Bell’s preselection in the Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff has fallen through, prospective nominee Trent Belling telling the Liberal National Party’s federal division council he had “taken the advice of many” in deciding to withdraw. Belling is a disability housing developer and the party’s metropolitan vice-president.
• DemosAU this week published a Tasmanian state poll showing that recorded little change on its last result in June/July, with the Liberals steady on 28%, Labor up one to 22%, One Nation steady on 21% and the Greens up one to 15%. Jeremy Rockliff was rated positively by 35% (steady), neutrally by 30% (up three) and negatively by 35% (down three), while Labor’s Josh Willie was respectively at 21% (down two), 50% (up two) and 29% (steady). Rockliff led over Willie on preferred premier was 42-34, compared with 41-32 last time. The poll was conducted September 1 to 20 from a sample of 1097.
• The Northern Territory’s Mulka by-election of September 12, arising from the retirement of independent member Yingiya Mark Guyula, ended with Labor’s Yiwarr McGrath polling 1960 votes to independent Andrew Blamey’s 574. This is Labor’s second by-election gain from the cross-bench since the August 2024 election, which reduced Labor to four seats, the first being when the Darwin seat of Nightcliff was won from the Greens in March. The governing Country Liberal Party continues to hold 17 seats, with Labor on six and two independents.
The world leader of the Exclusive Brethren church, which ran a covert campaign supporting the Coalition at the last federal election, has described Jews as evil, malicious infidels who are unable to ever atone for the sin of killing Jesus. Leaked church records spanning more than two decades reveal Bruce Hales, the church’s leader and “Elect Vessel”, repeatedly preaching to his 56,000-stong global flock that Jews are beyond redemption.
“The poor Jew, still in the darkness of Judaism, trying to atone for the things they’ve done wrong; their lies and their iniquity, and their wickedness,” Hales, the Brethren’s “Man of God”, said in 2009.
The Jews’ sin, Hales insists, is not recognising Jesus as the son of God, then “murdering” Him. He refers to Yom Kippur, the holiest day on the Jewish calendar, as when Jews “go on in their darkness trying to atone”. “They fell into evil … It’s not something they can eliminate,” he said in a separate 2009 ministry, adding in 2010 that this was a “terrible thing. What a void.”
https://archive.li/oOauL
In the EPL: Manchester City found guilty of 114 charges: Fifty-four were for failing to provide accurate financial information from 2009-10 to 2017-18
Fourteen were for failing to provide accurate details for player and manager payments from the same period
Five were for failing to comply with Uefa’s rules from 2013-14 to 2017-18
Seven were for breaching Premier League profitability and sustainability rules from 2015-16 to 2017-18
Thirty-five were for failing to co-operate with the investigation from 2018-23. Punishment yet to be announced City face a range of sanctions from a fine to points deductions and even expulsion from the Premier League. Or a combination of all.
Austin Peterson: GOP state Senate candidate in Minnesota. During a debate
Moderator: What have you done to ensure clean water in our community?
Peterson: Yeah, you know, it’s not that—I’m trying to think of one, I’m just trying to think of a good answer here. Clean water is really important. Looking at it from where I live, near Rollo, we live near lakes country, right? So, environmentally, we canoe a lot on our lake, and when we put gasoline in our boats, right—we’re putting that gasoline in on the shore and not in the lake. So, I mean, it’s small things, but when we look at clean water—Minnesota, when I think of Minnesota, I think clean water, I think trees, I think outdoors—and so it’s important for us to all live by high standards to protect our resources.
William the Greens are on 15 in the Tassie Poll
Hoping the Dockers get it done today
Politics & Poll Tracker
@PollTracker2024
#TexasSenate
New York Times focus group of a dozen Trump 2024 voters from Texas weigh in on Ken Paxton:
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2103109068453753113?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2103119217817960699%7Ctwgr%5E29f2be7de2474d3de0f5c815c32b537521b813b3%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F9%2F25%2F800103079%2Fcommunity%2Fabbreviated-pundit-roundup%2F
Silver Bulletin:
The blue wave is mostly in red states. That’s a little weird.
Still Counting EP3. Plus some quick thoughts on that NYT poll in Maine.
The NYT is a very honest (and highly-rated) pollster that doesn’t herd. So a variety of interpretations are possible:
1. Noise/sampling error;
Collins being particularly tough to beat;
2. Democrats’ polling strength being concentrated in red states, not blue states.
3. The third interpretation is the one I want to briefly explore here.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-blue-wave-is-mostly-in-red-states
Supreme Court looking to do their bit to screw the midterms approving the use of SAVE to verify voters
It’s going to be very messy
Shout out to the Socceroos who came within a whisker of beating Brazil
There is a chart.
@Redistrict
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
New @CookPolitical: with less than 40 days to go, the most critical voters are the “doubly disenchanted” – the ~17% of Trump disapprovers who aren’t (yet) in the Dem column. The critical pain point for them? Energy/gas prices. My full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…
12:49 AM · Sep 25, 2026
·
65K
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https://x.com/Redistrict/status/2103134694711976183?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2103134694711976183%7Ctwgr%5Ea40d3de36dbdf6a7875e3d42a8745575b4e65cd6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F9%2F25%2F800103079%2Fcommunity%2Fabbreviated-pundit-roundup%2F
Bill Scher
@billscher
Updating again as several polls dropped today. Sept. Senate polls avgs no internals:
NC: D+8.6
GA : D+7
NH: D+5.3
TX: D+3.4
AK: D+3.3
OH: D+3.1
MI: D+2.6
ME: D+2.1
MN: D+1.75
IA: D+1.3
NE: Tie
KS: R+1.8
SC: R+2
FL: R+6.5
MT: R+13.5
No polls in SD/MS/ID (not counting ATR poll)
@billscher
Bill Scher
@billscher
Sep 24
Updated Sept. Senate polls avgs, no internals. MI inches ahead of ME.
7:05 AM · Sep 25, 2026
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9,510
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https://x.com/billscher/status/2103229369430786062?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2103229369430786062%7Ctwgr%5E60cacd1b15f7bd3be3bdb1178c51c980e2cdb896%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F9%2F25%2F800103079%2Fcommunity%2Fabbreviated-pundit-roundup%2F
UK Survation poll covering 22-23 September (compared to their last on 9-10 September)
Labour: 27% (-1)
Reform: 24% (+1)
Conservative: 21% (=)
Lib Dems: 11% (+1)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Restore: 2% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (-1)
Others: 4% (=)
Leadership Approval:
Andy Burnham: Approve 45% (+2), Disapprove 29% (+1), net +16 (+1)
Kemi Badenoch: Approve 39% (+2), Disapprove 31% (+2), net +8 (=)
Nigel Farage: Approve 32% (=), Disapprove 50% (+1), net -18 (-1)
Ed Davey: Approve 28% (+1), Disapprove 27% (-1), net +1 (+2)
Zack Polanski: Approve 19% (-2), Disapprove 45% (+4), net -26 (-6)
It seems the UK Greens have dropped the ball for the moment.
UK Greens will get a big boost when Zack Polanski wins the by-election on the 8th (from memory)
What will the Hanson/Taylor Government do about the PBS?
We know that they will make swingeing cuts to taxes.
We know that they oppose governments interfering with markets.
We know they are against government subsidies for social security payments.
The obvious outcome is that the PBS will at the very least be wound down to some extent.
It may be cut out altogether.
It is a certainty that medicines are cheaper under Labor and will be much more expensive under Hanson/Taylor.
@HBG
Ah, yes, the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Holborn_and_St_Pancras_by-election
It might not be quite the cakewalk for Polanski to win. He’s taking a pretty big gamble here, especially with his approval ratings. If he loses then that’s going to look pretty bad for his political leadership.
Plus I see that George Galloway is also running, that may spoil things for him.
Its hard to know which story is the worst this morning.
But Canada saying they are prepping for a US invasion is pretty up there.
Polanski has worst net approval rating amongst leaders.
It appears he is branded effectively as anti-semite by his opponents.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump asked Zelenskyy to travel to Moscow for meeting with Putin, but he refused, Bloomberg says: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/09/25/8055093/
Ukraine to Produce Its Own Patriot Missiles as Trump Approves License, Zelenskyy Says: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-to-produce-its-own-patriot-missiles-as-trump-approves-license-zelenskyy-says-22856
Macron cites ‘several signs’ Russia preparing to mobilize 300,000 people: https://kyivindependent.com/macron-cites-several-signs-russia-is-preparing-to-mobilize-300-000-people/
Trump asks Xi to stop helping Iran: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/09/25/trump-asks-xi-to-stop-helping-iran/?accesscontrol=facebookchannel_open
Khamenei Adviser Issues Ultimatum: If Iran Cannot Have Flights, No One In The Region Can: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/khamenei-adviser-issues-ultimatum-if-iran-cannot-have-flights-no-one-in-the-region-can-12097561
Lula says Trump wants to ‘colonise’ and capture Brazil’s resources by meddling in election: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/25/lula-says-trump-wants-to-colonise-and-capture-brazils-resources-by-meddling-in-election
Argentina’s poverty rate climbs to nearly one in three under Milei: https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260925-argentina-poverty-rate-nearly-one-in-three-milei
East German town bans future Holocaust memorial plaques: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/east-german-town-bans-future-holocaust-memorial-plaques-2026-09-25/
Asian grooming gang who preyed on girls in seaside town as recently as 2024 then blamed parents who ‘can’t look after their kids’ jailed for 82 years: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16159823/Asian-grooming-gang-preyed-girls-seaside-town-blamed-parents-jailed.html
Democrat Files 26 Impeachment Articles Against Trump Over War, ICE, Corruption: https://truthout.org/articles/democrat-files-26-impeachment-articles-against-trump-over-war-ice-corruption/
Hegseth Issues Veiled Order to Military to Vote Republican in Midterms: https://newrepublic.com/post/215887/pete-hegseth-veiled-order-military-vote-republican-midterms
Supreme Court Hands Trump Huge Win in Quest to Make Voting Harder: https://newrepublic.com/post/215878/supreme-court-donald-trump-win-voting-verification
Supreme Court rejects GOP’s third effort to capture Democratic House seat in Missouri: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/25/politics/supreme-court-rejects-gop-third-effort-to-capture-house-seat-from-missouri
CEO who drew ire for posting photo of ‘Lake America’ sweatshirts ‘no longer an employee’: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/ceo-who-drew-ire-for-posting-photo-of-lake-america-sweatshirts-no-longer-an-employee/
New Mexico jury finds Facebook liable for deceiving users about privacy protections: https://apnews.com/article/facebook-meta-new-mexico-privacy-lawsuit-3f822af6a0628b983f942754d21b5ba6
New Jersey lieutenant governor resigns after sexual harassment accusation: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/25/new-jersey-lieutenant-governor-resigns-dale-caldwell
“Where Are the Cameras?”: Trump, 80, Is Confused About Own Media Ban: https://newrepublic.com/post/215871/donald-trump-80-confused-media-ban
We’ve had a very dry September in Melbourne town this month.
The weather gods decided we should get some rain today.
No one told them to wait another day for some much needed rain
The weather gods aren’t interested in any silly grand final. lol
Exclusive: Vietjet registers first aircraft in Australia
https://australianaviation.com.au/2026/09/exclusive-vietjet-registers-first-aircraft-in-australia/
Good discussion.
I’m in the camp of being upfront with the US now and telling them we’ll pick our battles according to our national interests.
I think it’s disingenuous to be anything else.
Unbelievable, isn’t it?
That Canada is prepping for a US invasion is mind boggling.
Canada was supposed to be the closest neighbour and ally.
“The weather gods aren’t interested in any silly grand final. lol”
Football is supposed to be cold, wet, and miserable.
HH DP
newyboy
What garantee Trump can give to Zelensky that he will not be killed of he goes to Moscow?
Nothing. Zilch. Nada.
Shame about the wet weather in Melbourne today.
If it hangs around I think Brizzy will handle it better.
We have only received 14 mm for the whole month. Usual average is about 56 mm
I guess I’ll keep tapping away at this. Apologies. I won’t be offended if you scroll. The language in this article on the dangers of AI is confused, flawed.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/26/openai-hack-australian-government-anxiety-global-dilemma-artificial-intelligence
No! I don’t know if the report is accurate, but the warning should be of – the potential risks of allowing frontier AI to BE DEVELOPED too fast without guardrails. AI does not have agency. People are developing this. People have names. Name them.
That was better.
Again, horseshit. Who developed checked and authorised the “instructions”?
Also horseshit. Agents do not “know” anything. They are not sentient. Metaphor is not reality.
I need a bigger bucket. Horseshit. The technology isn’t doing the development, people are.
OK.
Not OK. AI is not sentient. Software doesn’t “decide” anything. Sometimes it does unexpected things. We used to call this buggy software.
And finally, the words of immune insulated Elons and Donalds aren’t worth listening too, beyond trying to scry whirling cyclones.
Thats how I remember it as a kid.
Now there’s never any mud.
HH DP
Supreme court allows Trumps’s voter screening tool
What can go wrong?
Apparently due to glitches in Texas voter registration system, 100000 voters already registered are up in the air
I have noticed that September has been mostly dry. Probably for the best since August and June were very wet.
Hopefully this Super Special Monstrous Mecha Godzilla Ultimate Mega Giga Yotta El Nino the meteorologists keep hollering about won’t make it too much of a problem over the summer.
Morning all. So much for my first footy tip last night. I hope the Lions go better today. 🙂
HH thanks for the international roundup. These stories both highlight the grim state US democracy is in. I can’t imagine either of them happening in Australia.
https://newrepublic.com/post/215887/pete-hegseth-veiled-order-military-vote-republican-midterms
https://newrepublic.com/post/215878/supreme-court-donald-trump-win-voting-verification
I think Trump will try to steal the mid term elections. He already is. I hope he fails.
Trump allies embrace martial law ahead of midterms. They openly said so to ‘The Atlantic’.
Late Riser 9:07am
Well said. If AI does damaging things it is because human beings programmed it to do so.
If the creators of AI are not prosecuted for criminal acts they caused AI to perform it is because human beings in Justice Departments (or Ministerial offices?) decided not to do so.
HH
This is a massive case of cheating, involving tens of millions of pounds per year for ten years. It makes Lance Armstrong look amateur.
Also, when we recognise that professional football is big business not a hobby, this is a massive fraud. Will it be prosecuted as such?
In terms of forest and grassland fuel in the Australian east and south-east.
In terms of lots of other things…?
Ante Meridian
I responded to your comment at 11.51 on the last Open thread this morning on that thread.
Apologies.
Big Data Poll for Michigan.
https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/wolverine-state-poll-el-sayed-leads-rogers-for-us-senate-in-michigan/
Michigan Senate (Total Voters):
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 46.7%
Mike Rogers (R): 42.1%
Certain to Vote:
El-Sayed: 49.8%
Rogers: 43.5%
Extremely Enthusiastic:
El-Sayed: 55.3%
Rogers: 39.5%
Seems that despite the efforts of the Epstein class, most Democratic voters are at the stage that they’re willing to strap themselves to a missile aimed at the Republicans (not literally of course, but there’s real voter anger out there).
Kirsdarke it’s definitely a gamble for Polanski and the Greens but I’m glad they’re rolling the dice
Ven – can a Jewish person be anti-Semetic
Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms—https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-expects-renewed-bombing-after-midterms-5982ee50
You regularly read reports about Republicans in Chumpistan meddling with voting rights, obviously in order to avoid eventual impeachments and criminal trials.
However, most examples of the MAGA fraternity I have seen suggest they are quite thick between the ears. If it becomes more difficult to vote, surely these are the people most impacted.
Just done a shop for todays BBQ at Highton butchers Geelong.
1 Scotch fillet steak – sliced into 2.
1 Beef Shashlik
$35.04
Only really do it on Grand Final day so classed as a special occasion.
From previous thread:
e.g.w.says:
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 10:43 am
Bystandersays:
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:58 pm
nathsays:
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:08 pm
Holdenhillbillysays:
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 9:24 pm
Sydney man Nathan Ballesty has been sentenced to three years’ imprisonment for performing a Nazi salute
Seems a bit excessive. I would have thought twelve months would have been a sufficient wake up call.
=======================================================
Wow: three years for a non-violent hand gesture.
What would you recommend for someone materially supporting the slaughter of tens of thousands of innocent children, the murder of hundreds of journalists, the killing of doctors, nurses, paramedics and aid workers; none of whom have committed a single act of violence?
There is a paywalled article in the West Australian about a chemo free cancer treatment being trialed in WA, apparently with considerable success.
The trial is being led by Professor Chan Cheah. His name would be a pretty good indication of his heritage.
These are the people that MAGA morons in Chumpistan and lunatic Hanson acolytes here want to kick out of the country.
I agree, 3 years is too much. Rapists often get the same sentence. Feels off to me.
Aviation Industry Joke:
Q: How do you become a millionaire?
A: Be a billionaire and buy an airline.
Not sure why anybody in their right mind would enter the Australian airline market.
There is just not the room for a viable third carrier – how many have tried and how many have succeeded? Before anyone says Virgin – back in 2001 it was a race to see who could hold on. Ansett ran out of cash first – Virgin had very little in the bank.
Farrell getting the gig yet again at his age is a sign that Labor isn’t adapting to meet the new reality of politics in 2026. Perfect opportunity to set up a good, younger future member of the leadership and signal to the electorate that they realise it’s no longer ‘business as usual’. But instead he’ll sit there until he’s 80.
That’s after his son in law was parachuted into a seat in State parliament which was happily occupied by a minister who is now out of parliament.
If I’m a disaffected voter looking for someone to shake things up, none of that is telling me Labor are the party for me.
I’m not a fan of mandatory sentences, but the guy went down for more than just the Nazi salute which would have been a mandatory 12 months on its own
Minns doing his thing
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-25/sydney-man-first-jailed-under-nazi-laws/107198174
I somehow missed that element of the whole Michaels knifing… I mean voluntary retirement saga. So slimy.
Trump’s approval rating drops to 37% in a WSJ poll, the lowest of any president heading into a midterm election in Journal polls dating back to 1990.