The Sydney Morning Herald today reports on the bi-monthly New South Wales state polling numbers from its regular Resolve Strategic series, in a report that does not appear to be online at the time of writing, although the results can be found on the website’s Resolve Monitor feature. This records little change on the previous result, with Labor unchanged at 29%, One Nation unchanged at 25%, the Coalition up a point to 24%, and the Greens unchanged at 11%. With Mike Newman now anointed as One Nation’s prospective parliamentary leader, there is now a three-way preferred premier question which has Chris Minns at 27%, Kellie Sloane at 15% and Newman at 8%, compared with Minns’ 36-16 lead over Sloane two months ago.
The poll combines the New South Wales results from the pollster’s last two monthly national surveys for an overall sample of 1100. The 550 respondents to the more recent monthly survey were asked about the federal-state agreement on tighter gun laws, finding 63% in support with 19% opposed.
Further New South Wales state election news:
• The Australian reported on Tuesday on a poll of 1000 respondents conducted for the Minerals Council of Australia by Insightfully, which had Labor and One Nation each on 29%, with the Coalition on 18% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted August 5 to 12 from a sample of 1000.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reported a fortnight ago that a “recent private poll” in Cessnock, which will be contested for One Nation by leadership hopeful Mike Newman, had One Nation leading Labor by 50% to 24%.
• James Griffin, who succeeded Mike Baird as Liberal member for Manly in 2017, announced a fortnight ago that he will not seek re-election. The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports candidates for Liberal preselection could include upper house member Natalie Ward; Adelaide Cuneo, who “works in the energy sector”; and Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Elouise Massa, who has campaigned for a government takeover of Northern Beaches Hospital since failures were identified by a review into the death of her son, will run as an independent.
• A week on from James Griffin’s announcement, Liberal colleague Alister Henskens announced that he too will bow out at the election as the member for one of the party’s safe seats. Henskens entered parliament as the member for Ku-ring-gai in 2015, transferring to the successor seat of Wahroonga after it was abolished in 2023.
• The Byron Shire Echo reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain has won a Labor preselection ballot for the seat of Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Henskens is northern suburbs not eastern.
The main SMH article is now online.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/voters-deliver-verdict-on-guns-as-political-division-widens-20260918-p60y9d.html
NSW Labor should be re-elected on Resolve’s numbers, though it would be helpful to see a regional breakdown.
Whereas the primaries in the Insightfully poll could produce a very messy parliament.
I’d probably expect Labor’s vote to be distributed well enough to hold government in OPV, but there ought to be concern as to where its been lost – presumably in the peri-urban or regional areas to ONP, but are they getting a swing in the inner metro areas to challenge the Liberals? I can imagine a big chunk of the lost Coalition vote is in the rurals and outer suburbs to ONP but is there an SA-style movement from LIB to ALP in inner Sydney as well?
Looking forward to getting more detailed polling as the campaign continues, should concern Labor that ONP and the Coalition are getting nearly 50% between them
newyboy and anyone who knows about regional Labor holds
Why did Cessnock went pear shaped for Labor (ON 50%, Labor 24%)?
Is any regional Labor seat safe anymore?
How can NSW Labor get most seats in NSW parliament let alone majority?
Minns approval rating dropped by 8%, going all to NSW ON leader, who is an unknown? What is happening?
People in Cessnock didn’t leave the party, the party left them
Cessnock has almost certainly a ‘Red One Nation’ Voter base (leans Labor economically, let and let live for Gays (supports Gay Marriage) but also nationalist being pro-Jan 26, voted No to the Voice and believes in the Anglo-Celtic Default) indicated from a very High No Vote for the Voice Referendum with at 72-75% No Vote under current boundaries. Secret Harbour by election has indicated as they had around 70% No Vote for the Voice.
Remember NSW has optional preferential voting for state elections, so some of that One Nation vote won’t necessarily go back to the Coalition in terms of 2nd preferences.
The new NSW One Nation leader is getting way more publicity and airtime on radio than Kelly Sloan – would the Liberals be comfortable with this?
My guess is another Labor minority government elected next March, Labor loses Cessnock and Camden but gains Ryde and one or two other seats in the Sydney metro area. Miranda is a chance, Simon Earl running again, he almost won it last time. Terrigal is similar, same Labor candidate from last time nominated again, he was ahead on election night but got swamped by postals and absentees.
In the Hunter and Central Coast, only Newcastle, Charlestown, Lake Macquarie and Terrigal are probably safe from a major incursion. The first two because they both have parts that are ‘inner city’ and upper middle class – sectors not naturally attractive to One Nation, Lake Macquarie by having Greg Piper as an independent MP, and Terrigal because its coastal areas are upper middle class and a more distant extension of the North Shore. However – Upper Hunter, Cessnock, Maitland, Port Stephens, Wallsend, Swansea, Wyong, The Entrance and Gosford could all see major ON inroads if not wins. With the exception of Upper Hunter, all are Labor seats. OPV and the distaste of some Liberal voters to preference ON will at the least provide a buffer. Otherwise it could get a tad ugly. The only solace to Labor is that they might be able to pick up Terrigal in the process.
“The main SMH article is now online.”
Someone needs to fix their graphs on the polls. They have IND and OTH both on 5% but IND has a bigger bar. And their poll adds up to 99%. Perhaps the poll should have IND at 6%.
My estimates of a 2PP accounting for vote exhaustion are:
* Labor 54.65 to ON 44.55, with an estimated exhaustion based on last election but with some tweaking to reduce it. For example I can’t see Greens voters exhausting anywhere near as much in a Labor vs ON contest, for example.
* ALP 55 to LNP 45, directly using last election exhaustion.
@ blackburnpseph, I would say Wallsend is probably not going to fall to One Nation as the Labor margin is just very big to begin with and the No Vote to the Voice was not as high with polling booths mainly just around the national average or even below.
Can someone advise if the Upper Hunter is more Anglo than you would expect?
Wallsend was the only Newcastle seat to survive 2011. Labor since 1894, its lose would be highly symbolic
Upper Hunter has a relatively high Aboriginal population but is otherwise very anglo-celt.
I don’t think anything is being taken for granted .
The assumption that the One nation threat is limited to the wider hunter and a few regional and outer metro suburban ring preserves is wrong.
Surely the main takeaway from Resolve is that the current ICAC hearings don’t seem to have touched the Coalition vote one iota. I’d expected some kind of swing to One Nation.
I’d love to see regional breakdowns, but I don’t think One Nation will do as much damage to the ALP in western Sydney as some commentary suggests. I think the ALP will be smashed outside of Sydney, but without One Nation making inroads in western Sydney, it’s difficult to see the ALP losing.
The media is burying ICAC as much as possible. Compare the hysteria about the fake news “$15 billion” in Victoria vs the LNP’s clear and obvious corruption in cahoots with the catholic church.
Chris Minns is giving Greens voters very few reasons to want to preference Labor and a lot of reasons not to. It’ll be interesting to see if the exhaustion rate is higher than usual or not
It was good to hear Kellie Sloane say she isn’t going to form government with One Nation, not that it’s very likely that she’d be in the position to at any rate
The NSW Liberals today promising to halt the gun buyback scheme, obvious pitch to the farmers in the bush who claim they need 20 guns supposedly to manage feral pests or whatever else.
I wonder how Kelly Sloane sells that policy in Sydney electorates where the Minns Government initiative is popular, according to recent polling.
The seat of Manly likely to fall to an independent, now James Griffin is retiring from politics.
My seat of Wahroonga is now without a Liberal MP too, or will be when Alistair Henskens retires in March, not that I think a Teal independent would have much chance in these leafy suburbs of Sydney’s North Shore. Maybe the Libs will preselect the woman who almost won Bradfield last year.
Dangers for Labor have got to be Penrith, Camden, South Coast, Bega, Cessnock.
Lismore doesn’t worry me, because of the personal local popularity of Janelle Saffin in that seat.
Minns really has to make some gains in Sydney – Ryde, Miranda, Oatley all come to mind, Lane Cove is perhaps a smokie.
We have another NSW poll, though sponsored by Minerals Council so could have a thumb on the scale.
https://www.onenewsaustralia.com/pauline-hanson-outranks-minns-and-albanese-in-exclusive-nsw-favourability-poll/
And a taste of the questions being asked..
https://minerals.org.au/resources/solid-majority-of-nsw-voters-support-uranium-mining-for-zero-emissions-energy/
SMH reporting Liberal fundraising for the state election in marginal seats is either non-existent or barely adequate for a March campaign.
“We have another NSW poll, though sponsored by Minerals Council”
An online poll, paid for by corporate interests, run by a PR company and editorialised via a far-right propaganda site to boost Australia’s leading racist. The corpo-fascist pipeline is in full swing.
“More than two-thirds of New South Wales voters (67 per cent) support uranium mining in the state if it helps address climate change”
Which it won’t. So it doesn’t matter.
These days, Wallsend would go Independent or even Green before it went One Nation (or Liberal).
But I tip it will stay strongly Labor.
Penrith should be fine, Bega too with a highly popular sitting member and longtime local obstetrician.
South coast has a bit of fizz to it but wide spread dissatisfaction with the controlling phoney One Nation bloc on the local council over the past two years with its highly qualified CEO Andrew Constance at the helm has been a shambles.
The greens and Minns thing will be an interesting situation due to the perception of the NSW Libs as very much Turbullish small l liberals
We can only hope that ICAC continues to remind everyone of the Jean claude show lol
Liberal insider in today’s SMH claims the One Nation vote is very soft and it can be won back by the Coalition in outer metropolitan and rural seats – we’ll wait and see on that one!
I do like Chris Minns a lot and he’s got some decent ministers, namely Daniel Mookey and John Graham and Paul Scully and Penny Sharpe. Election result in March though will be a mess, I suspect!
The main allegation against Minns from many on the left is that he’s too beholden to the Daily Telegraph and Ben Fordham on 2GB. A good example could be the state government now deciding to block the Sydney City Council demolishing 7 buildings in the CBD to construct a gigantic town square, the Tele and 2GB have been leading the opposition to that proposal, so have the unions – in order to protect the jobs of those who work in the Woolworths building for example.
“Chris Minns is giving Greens voters very few reasons to want to preference Labor and a lot of reasons not to. ”
The only reason Greens Political Party supporters need to preference Labor is that it will help stop Pauline Hanson’s One Nation from winning.
You don’t want Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to win seats do you?
“there is now a three-way preferred premier question which has Chris Minns at 27%, Kellie Sloane at 15% and Newman at 8%”.
That adds up to just half the respondents. That’s woeful.
I would like to comment to those who believe mistakely that One Nation would sweep the Central Coast and Newcastle to stop and think for once. I live in the seat of Gosford and the Labor member Liesl Tesch is very popular and would need to be blasted out of the seat to lose it. We are not all rednecks up here now and the demographics have changed significantly over the years.
Also my son would lives in the seat of Newcastle reckons it would be more likely to fall to a good independent or green before any right wing party secures it at the next election.
Also thank you to Poll Bludger i have read many comments over the years and first time posting here.
Welcome Coastie One!
A good first up comment.
Liesl Tesch is indeed a powerhouse of a local MP
Coastie One: G’day and welcome! I too doubt very much that One Nation will be winning any seats on the Central Coast, and I reckon Terrigal is a decent chance for a Labor pickup this time – it was almost won in 2023, and they’ve nominated the same candidate again, a really great young bloke.
I too think people who don’t live in NSW sometimes have little understanding of the situation in some regional areas of the state.
I’m interested in politics in other states where I don’t live, but I don’t pretend to be an instant expert on Victoria or Qld.
I’ll add that I hope very much that Labor wins Miranda, because an extra few seats in Sydney would balance out any losses to One Nation and also because Simon Earl is a top bloke and it’d be nice if he can finally get into parliament – he’s tried a lot of times both federally and statewide before.
Is Janelle Saffin running again in Lismore? She’ll be 72 at the election. (Greg Piper isn’t much younger, but apparently is running again in Lake Macquarie.) It’s safe for Labor as long as she’s there, but gets interesting without her – it could end up as a four-way mess.
Janelle is running no dramas there!
She has a great team under her and a great nsw left stalwart
Guess the Coalition didn’t learn that nationalistic culture wars does gain any vote. Copying the same RW Culture War talking points about replacing ‘progressive’ content with ‘Western Civilzation’ would somehow improves Maths and Reading.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/19/coalition-education-curriculum-changes-first-nations-content-western-values
What an inspirational reason to preference Labor, they’re better than One Nation. Does the bar get any lower?
Liesl Tesch is indeed a good local member but she represents a shit party that will be very hard to vote for. I’m really hoping we have a strong independent run in Gosford
Welcome Coastie One, the demographics of Gosford are definitely changing with all the apartments that have gone in and people moving here because it’s cheaper than Sydney. I don’t buy the argument that having to do so could cause them to be angry about having to. Especially given many will be able to work from home at least some of the time rather than face the daily commute
Parts on the Coast are still very white though and potential targets for One Nation. It’s interesting that the Greens vote is so much stronger in Newcastle and Wollongong than it is in Gosford and Wyong
While I agree Kellie Sloane is trying to appeal to the Teal style Liberals she’s still dictated to by a party that doesn’t know what it believes in, promising to wind back gun law changes for farmers is the perfect example of that
We’re in for a fascinating election come March
i thought pollbludger was balanced. ALP /greens voters are in for rude shock on the Central Coast and Hunter Valley..
“What an inspirational reason to preference Labor, they’re better than One Nation. Does the bar get any lower?”
All preferencing is about who you least want to win.
Pollbludger commentary is many things, balanced is not one of them.
Kelly Sloane being tough on gang crime is inconsistent with her promising to stop the gun buy back scheme. And I think I’m over her constantly reminding us that she was there at Bondi on that awful Sunday afternoon, as if what happened then was all about her.
HBG – Chris Minns is giving Greens voters very few reasons to want to preference Labor and a lot of reasons not to. It’ll be interesting to see if the exhaustion rate is higher than usual or not
++++++++++++++++++
Agree, but its worse than that. Minns doesn’t even try to canvass a left vote of any sort and about any topic. I get the feeling if ONP/LNP fly abortion up the flagpole again he will do nothing or actively jump in.
BTW where did the actual Liberals go?
Where’s the government of Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird, Gladys Berejiklian, all fairly moderate, and Dom Perrottet, hard Catholic but deliberately softening his disposition in office?
Where are the NSW Libs of the calibre of Nick Greiner, Philip Ruddock, John Alexander, even heaven help us John Howard, Alex Hawke or Scott Morrisson, who had some check on their nuttiness imposed by actually having to govern.
Corleone says:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 4:30 pm
BTW where did the actual Liberals go?
Where’s the government of Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird, Gladys Berejiklian, all fairly moderate, and Dom Perrottet, hard Catholic but deliberately softening his disposition in office?
Where are the NSW Libs of the calibre of Nick Greiner, Philip Ruddock, John Alexander, even heaven help us John Howard, Alex Hawke or Scott Morrisson, who had some check on their nuttiness imposed by actually having to govern.
=========
Corleone,
What is the point you are making?
Do you want the Libs to have more “moderate Libs” put forward, and if so, how will that get their conservative base back.
“BTW where did the actual Liberals go”
Into ICAC witness boxes, mostly.
Barry O’Farrell: Lying to ICAC.
Mike Baird: Lead the Libs while MP’s were corruptly taking money from prohibited donors.
Gladys Berejiklian: Found to have engaged in serious corrupt conduct. Corruptly ignored statements of corruption made by the man having a secret relationship with her, while they were making decisions of how to use public funds. Should have been jailed.
Dom Perrottet: I’ll give him this, he wasn’t dumb enough to get caught on wiretaps. Still involved in the Jean Nassif scandal because he sacked Eleni Petinos while she was refusing to sack David Chandler, the target of “The Reformers” and Nassif.
Nick Greiner: Found by ICAC to have been “conducting himself contrary to known and recognised standards of honesty and integrity”.
Philip Ruddock: Children overboard.
John Howard: Children overboard. Gave us Pauline Hanson.
Scott Morrisson: Robodebt
One of the reasons One Nation is so popular is because of the endemic corruption and self dealing within the LNP.
Nadia, i think the Liberal base has fundamentally changed, it was probably more liberal, but it’s definitely become more conservative than liberal. Liberalism didn’t work. Government has failed at the basic jobs of the state,which must always primarily be to look after the disadvantaged. Under liberalism, or neoliberalism, governments kept growing, but it’s spending increasingly skewed towards already privileged people, particularly the classes of government. John Howard’s government probably did most to get this process going in Australia, but the ALP has effectively co-opted these policies over the last 20 years, as they particularly advantaged their new middle class urban constituencies.
I tend to agree with the public consensus there’s no difference anymore between moderate Liberals and the ALP.
The Wombat,
The final breach between the Libs and their Conservative base occured when PM Morrison wedded himself to “net zero” on 26-Oct-2021.
He backflipped on his commitments during the 2019 election campaign.
I’m guessing he backfliiped because moderate Libs were worried about their inner city leafy seats.
He, and the Libs, lost those seats anyway. Those seats are gone for good.
The remnant “conservative” base supported Dutton until Jane Hume (a moderate) sabotaged the last election by attacking WFH entitlements. This caused a lot of women to flee the LNP and vote Labor.
The remnant “Conservative” base then abandoned the LNP after the election and started moving their support to ON during 2025. Reason: Why support a Liberal party when you have saboteurs such as Jane Hume, Melissa Price, Andrew Bragg and Anne Ruston. These 4 politicians are basically “Labor lite”.
Jane Hume being elevated to the Deputy Leadership role in Feb has caused ON to jump up to around the 25% mark. The former “Tory” Libs know the enemy within their party, so they’re parking their vote with Pauline until the Libs get their act together.
Jane Hume needs to go. Until she does, the Fed Libs will continue to have problems.
Anyway, that’s my read.
Hastie is far bigger problem for the Libs than Jane Hume is.
I agree with you on that point Ghost.