Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

Labor sink to new lows on while poll series, while perking up in another.

Two markedly different federal poll results from the past few days, the more favourable for Labor being from the uneven Roy Morgan series, which has them up two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with One Nation down three-and-a-half to 23.5%, the Coalition down half to 20.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor is credited with two-party preferred leads on respondent-allocated preferences of 55.5-44.5 over One Nation (out from 53-47) and 56-44 over the Coalition (out from 52-48), and a lead of 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows (out from 52.5-47.5). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1585.

Conversely, the monthly Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result of the term, down five on the primary vote to 26% with the Coalition up four to 26%, One Nation down two to 23% and the Greens up one to 13%, with an undecided component accounting for 5%. The Coalition leads the pollster’s 2PP+ measure by 50-45, after Labor led 48-47 last time. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is respectively down one to 32% and down three to 41%. The regular national mood question has the “right direction” response down five to a new low of 23%, with wrong direction up six to a new high of 59%. The full report has further questions on workplace relations, social media and the “manosphere”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a ample of a bit over 1000, though details are not yet available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,820 thoughts on “Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. nathsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:51 pm
    FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:37 pm
    I am, in point of fact, a particularly haughty and exclusive person, of Adamite ancestral descent. You will understand this when I tell you that I can trace my ancestry back to a protoplasmal primordial atomic globule.
    ==============================================

    This statement requires more scientific knowledge than Fubar has ever shown to possess. Hence I believe it is forged. If pretending to be Fubar, try being stupider in future. As the slightest inkling of intelligence will give the game away.

  2. Nothing like an imminent election to suddenly focus the mind.
    ————————————————-

    “Victoria premier commits almost $450m to road projects if re-elected

    The Victorian premier, Ben Carroll, held his fourth consecutive press conference regarding the state’s roads this week, announcing $448m to upgrade roads in the western suburbs if re-elected in November.

    Carroll announced $195m would go to widening Point Cook Road between Central Avenue and Dunnings Road in Seabrook, $170m to widening Taylors Road in Delahey and Kings Park and $83m to double the capacity at the Ballan Road and Bolton Road intersection in Wyndham Vale.

    He told reporters:

    Roads, roads and roads are such an important component of what I will do as premier. You don’t need to be a Rhodes scholar to know we need to invest in more roads, fixing potholes, smoother ways home, and getting people home quicker and faster to be with their families.

    It’s worth noting each project is in Labor-held electorates that pundits say the party has taken for granted: Kororit, Sydenham, Point Cook and Werribee.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/sep/03/anthony-albanese-one-nation-jim-chalmers-labor-liberal-angus-taylor-tobacco-plan-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6a98fa1b8f08bf7c3abbed68#block-6a98fa1b8f08bf7c3abbed68

    —————————————————————————

    And people wonder why politicians are regarded with cynicism and distrust by so many.

  3. Peg

    …And people wonder why politicians are regarded with cynicism and distrust by so many.

    I don’t wonder at all.

    Any decent ordinary person looking at the behaviour of Greens politicians would regard them with cynicism and distrust.

  4. US declares it will accelerate military presence in Australia

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-03/federal-politics-us-military-presence-in-australia-set-to-grow/107111352

    “The US military’s presence in Australia is set to grow further, with the defence minister flagging upcoming announcements on a greater US “force posture” on Australian soil.

    Richard Marles met with his US counterpart, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, in Washington DC and discussed an expansion of US presence on Australian military bases.

    The United States already has a significant Australian presence through existing force posture agreements, including the annual rotation of US Marines through Darwin, and the establishment of Submarine Rotational Force — West at HMAS Stirling near Perth.

    About 1,000 US Navy personnel are set to be based at HMAS Stirling from next year to support American Virginia-class submarines operating out of the naval base.”

  5. The Lincoln docked in the port of Laem Chabang, on the Gulf of Thailand, south of Bangkok, on Wednesday for a visit expected to last several days to give crew members their first full rest-and-relaxation port call after a marathon deployment.

    Yes, I’m sure resting and relaxing is what they will be getting up to there.

  6. Sydney Marathon. Who told NSW Police to run bodyguard for Israel’s army?

    https://michaelwest.com.au/sydney-marathon-who-told-nsw-police-to-run-bodyguard-for-israels-army/

    “The point is bigger than six runners. Up to 40 current and former IDF soldiers were admitted to Australia without any apparent screening, for a fun run, in the face of public anger at who they were and what they had reportedly done in Gaza.
    :::
    Chris Sidoti, an Australian barrister, sits on the United Nations Commission of Inquiry that found in September 2025 that Israel committed genocide in Gaza. His position: anyone who served in the Israeli forces in Gaza since October 2023 should be treated as a suspect in war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.
    :::
    When 40 soldiers of that army landed at Kingsford Smith, those obligations required screening at the border and questions from the Australian Federal Police.

    Here is what happened. Home Affairs stamped the passports. The AFP did nothing. NSW Police, on somebody’s instruction, put up to three dozen officers on the course so nothing would interrupt their run.

    Sidoti said suspects should be interrogated wherever they land. Sydney gave them an escort.
    :::
    Sunday was neither. It was for six soldiers of a foreign army under a genocide finding, it appeared in no budget line, and the people of NSW paid for it without being told. The community’s security is a line item. The army’s security is a freebie, arranged in the dark.

    The one NSW program that funded security for every faith, Safe Places for Faith Communities, exhausted its $15 million and was not renewed in June. Mosques, churches and temples that want a reinforced door are told the money is gone.

    In August 2025 Chris Minns sent NSW Police to the Supreme Court to stop a Palestine march crossing the Harbour Bridge. It lost, and more than 300,000 people crossed anyway in pouring rain. Protesters have since been arrested and fined for chanting on public streets while police insisted marches drained resources from ordinary policing.

    When residents want to march, resources are scarce and the law is tightened. When Israel’s soldiers want to jog, resources appear and the law is forgotten.”

  7. @Asha at 2:14pm

    In the midst of all this discussion, I am still struggling to understand what aspects of Christian or tradition Australian culture people are being prevented from practicing in this country. Can someone please explain it to me?

    Basically PHON is trying to do an “Every Accusation Is A Confession” segment where they accuse their opponents of cancelling their Western Judeo-Christian™ Values where they in fact just want to cancel out every culture that is not Western Judeo-Christian™. Much like they’re doing in MAGA America.

  8. Charles must be under instructions to sit on his hands. The only time they appear near his lips, his mouth or his nose is when he adjusts his spectacles.

  9. “AI Overview
    In body language and nonverbal psychology, adjusting your spectacles or pushing your glasses up your nose frequently acts as a subconscious pacifying gesture or a stalling tactic during moments of evaluation or tension.”

  10. Sydney Marathon. Who told NSW Police to run bodyguard for Israel’s army?
    ============================================================

    Entry was by ballot.
    Did they all succeed in the draw? Did any miss out?
    More questions to be answered!

  11. davidwh says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:45 pm

    How can you give it back if it’s never been ceded?

    It’s good to know that the traditional hunting of Dugongs in the Gulf of Carpentaria hasn’t contributed to the 50% decline in the population.

  12. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-03/federal-politics-us-military-presence-in-australia-set-to-grow/107111352

    “The US military’s presence in Australia is set to grow further, with the defence minister flagging upcoming announcements on a greater US “force posture” on Australian soil.

    Richard Marles met with his US counterpart, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, in Washington DC and discussed an expansion of US presence on Australian military bases.

    JFC, this just gets worse…

  13. themunzsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 3:32 pm
    =======================================

    Interesting question, AI doesn’t know but they possibly got guaranteed position via the charity allotment positions?

    AI Overview
    No official records or statements indicate whether individual members of the Team Shalva delegation—which included current and former Israeli military personnel—entered via the general public ballot or through guaranteed charity, tour, or organizational entries allocated to partner groups.

  14. The AFP now has an opportunity to check to see whether any of them were in the chains of command that led to the death of an aussie aid worker.

  15. Burning bushes: Where there’s fire, there’s smoke. Being agnostic on smoke, I think bush burners should be taxed. They certainly shouldn’t have tax exempt status.

  16. Loathe as I am to be on the same page as FUBAR on anything, I do actually agree that one’s faith or traditions shouldn’t allow them to hunt endangered animals.

  17. The burning bush analogy might have more merit if Christians actually burned bushes as part of their religious ceremonies, but they don’t, so I’m not entirely sure what the point of it is.

  18. FUBAR @ #178 Thursday, September 3rd, 2026 – 1:14 pm

    Asha says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:02 pm

    The Ten Commandments are pretty spot on and reflected in our laws. A fair bit of the Nee Testament is reasonable guidance on how to live a good life.

    Hey horsie, give us your intellectual interpretation of this commandment:
    “Deuteronomy 20:16-17
    New International Version
    16 However, in the cities of the nations the Lord your God is giving you as
    an inheritance, do not leave alive anything that breathes.
    17 Completely destroy

    a

    them—the Hittites, Amorites, Canaanites,
    Perizzites, Hivites and Jebusites—as the Lord your God has commanded you. ”

  19. Ashasays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 3:52 pm
    The burning bush analogy might have more merit if Christians actually burned bushes as part of their religious ceremonies, but they don’t, so I’m not entirely sure what the point of it is.
    _________________________________
    They burn incense.

  20. Asha
    1. The palms of the previous Palm Sunday are burnt to make the ashes for Ash Wednesday
    2. The Easter Vigil mass begins with an open wood fire outside the church

    I am sure given time I can draw further relevant memories from my collected bank of useless information

  21. So where is the Christmas tree in scripture, anyway? Must be in the dinosaur part. That wasn’t in my version. The writers really let themselves down by not recognising which parts needed to be canon in the story. These days the fans are obsessive. By season 6, they really lost the plot. Didn’t know if they were a kids fairytale, conan, or a cheap lord of the rings. C-. Needs more dragons.

  22. Ashasays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 3:52 pm
    The burning bush analogy might have more merit if Christians actually burned bushes as part of their religious ceremonies, but they don’t, so I’m not entirely sure what the point of it is.
    ========================================

    Many of them moved on to burning incense instead. Though I gather it is to symbolise prayers rising to heaven and not to do with the burning bush which is supposedly Holy Bramble. Which when burnt has no particular aromatic smell beyond wood smoke.

    “AI Overview
    When burnt, the Holy Bramble (Rubus sanctus or Rubus ulmifolius subsp. sanctus, known as the traditional Burning Bush of the Bible) produces standard woody plant smoke rather than a distinct or uniquely documented aromatic scent.

    Characteristics of Holy Bramble Smoke
    Ordinary Wood Smoke: As a member of the rose family (Rosaceae) closely related to blackberries and raspberries, its burning wood and dry stems smell like typical burning brush or garden briars.

    No Special Fragrance: Unlike aromatic resins (such as frankincense or myrrh) or strongly scented woods (like sandalwood), the holy bramble does not possess natural volatile oils that create a famous perfume or sweet scent when combusted.

    Aesthetic and Cultural Context: The association with smell usually relates to local traditions or visitors burning incense near the site of the holy bramble at St. Catherine’s Monastery on Mount Sinai rather than an aromatic property of the bramble itself.”

  23. BK

    Slow going at ICAC today.
    Dwyer taking Perrottet through seemingly endless number of text messages with other people of interest.
    Standard response is he has no knowledge of them and he dismisses any suggestion from Dwyer as to what they might mean.
    He’s been well coached.
    Dwyer is machine like in her questioning. Hardly misses a beat.

  24. Yabba:

    While the scripture that you quote there is clearly the insane ravings of a murderous psychopath and no sane person should ever be basing their life on the philosophy of somebody who would write something like that, it is not one of the ten commandments, nor is it from the New Testament.

  25. I wonder what 2022 Victorian Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North Timothy Dragan is up to these days?

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/bloody-aboriginal-liberal-candidate-rails-against-indigenous-people-abortion-and-climate-change-20221119-p5bzm6.html

    The Liberal Party’s candidate for Narre Warren North says Australia should not recognise First Nations people because “we won this land fair and square”, that waste from nuclear energy should be dumped in Alice Springs, and that he would vote to ban abortion.

    Timothy Dragan last week railed against Aboriginal recognition, climate change, abortion and senior Liberal MP Brad Battin, who he described as a “prick”.

    (…)

    “We won this land fair and square. It’s like telling Britain to give the land back to the Vikings, and the Vikings to give it back to the Romans. And same with Romania — to give Transylvania back to the Hungarians. I mean, come on man, it’s bollocks. It’s absolute bollocks.”

    So is he still with the Libs or has he jumped ship to One Nation?

  26. Okay, I am clearly wrong about the burning of wood and plantlife in Christian ceremonies, and I take back my original statement on the matter.

  27. When I was a urologist on the NSW Coast, I would occasionally have an aboriginal teenager see me to request a circumcision “so that they could be an elder” according to tribal tradition.
    While the desert people practiced circumcision and for good reason, the coastal aborigines didn’t. I guess this could be classed as a recently manufactured tradition.

    I also used to have occasional white teenagers requesting a circumcision but after much manufactured reasoning, the real reason was that their girlfriends wouldn’t give them head if they were uncut.

  28. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 3:58 pm
    Asha
    1. The palms of the previous Palm Sunday are burnt to make the ashes for Ash Wednesday
    2. The Easter Vigil mass begins with an open wood fire outside the church

    I am sure given time I can draw further relevant memories from my collected bank of useless information
    ==============================================

    My Grandma who was brought up a Methodist. Liked to tell the story that when she was young and at a church camp, she had been playing with the camp fire with a stick. Which had obviously annoyed her churches Minister. Who told her “you will make a good stoker in hell”.

  29. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 3:00 pm

    Photoshopped?

    —————

    Probably not.

    They get used, they get rusty. Showboating around the South China Sea, threatening one’s neighbours, doesn’t achieve the same effect.

  30. I’ve never quite understood the hygiene argument for circumcision, at least in the modern day where we have ready access to things like showers and soaps. It isn’t that difficult to keep your bits clean.

    I also used to have occasional white teenagers requesting a circumcision but after much manufactured reasoning, the real reason was that their girlfriends wouldn’t give them head if they were uncut.

    I suspect this is one of the main reasons men get circumcised these days.

  31. I’m sceptical. Might be, might not be. There is a rusty ‘wash’ on the bridge.
    ———————————————————-
    Maybe the faeces hit the steam catapults.

  32. Christmas trees?
    Here is a shock:
    There is a 1:365 chance that Christ was born on Dec 25 – the date is unknown but the third week in December is the winter solstice in Europe and was celebrated as a period of expectation of rebirth by the Romans (Saturnalia) and Germanic (Yule) and Celtic people.
    The early church needed a substitute for such pagan stuff and plonked Christmas at that time, including some of the rituals including bringing green vegetation into houses as a reminder of the coming Spring.

  33. BK
    FWIW After today I reckon that he is in deep doodoo. They had taped conversations of Nassif bragging about the politicak outcomes which parallel tge outcomes that C had more or less held out to him. Along with C picking up $148,000…
    I can’t see a jury swallowing C’s alternative explanations.
    I might be wrong. I am not a legal person.
    Not forgetting that C is going be asked some nasty questions about dodging tax.

  34. Hegseth best be careful, he’s looking perilously close to falling foul of his “no fatties” doctrine.

    I suppose it’s on brand for the real life Mac from It’s Always Sunny.

  35. Every time I see people referring to “Charles” with no last name provided, I keep thinking they are talking about the King and am momentarily very confused.

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