Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

Labor sink to new lows on while poll series, while perking up in another.

Two markedly different federal poll results from the past few days, the more favourable for Labor being from the uneven Roy Morgan series, which has them up two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with One Nation down three-and-a-half to 23.5%, the Coalition down half to 20.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor is credited with two-party preferred leads on respondent-allocated preferences of 55.5-44.5 over One Nation (out from 53-47) and 56-44 over the Coalition (out from 52-48), and a lead of 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows (out from 52.5-47.5). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1585.

Conversely, the monthly Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result of the term, down five on the primary vote to 26% with the Coalition up four to 26%, One Nation down two to 23% and the Greens up one to 13%, with an undecided component accounting for 5%. The Coalition leads the pollster’s 2PP+ measure by 50-45, after Labor led 48-47 last time. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is respectively down one to 32% and down three to 41%. The regular national mood question has the “right direction” response down five to a new low of 23%, with wrong direction up six to a new high of 59%. The full report has further questions on workplace relations, social media and the “manosphere”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a ample of a bit over 1000, though details are not yet available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,447 thoughts on “Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 5 of 29
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  1. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:25 pm
    How does wafting smoke over someone even get past an OH&S assessment?
    =======================================================

    I suppose you only believe in taking direction from burning bushes. Was it a smokeless burning bush though?

    Exodus 3:2–5:
    2 And the angel of the Lord appeared unto him in a flame of fire out of the midst of a bush: and he looked, and, behold, the bush burned with fire, and the bush was not consumed.
    3 And Moses said, I will now turn aside, and see this great sight, why the bush is not burnt.
    4 And when the Lord saw that he turned aside to see, God called unto him out of the midst of the bush, and said, Moses, Moses. And he said, Here am I.
    5 And he said, Draw not nigh hither: put off thy shoes from off thy feet, for the place whereon thou standest is holy ground.

  2. FUBAR – you didn’t qualify “The Ten Commandments” in your sentence: “The Ten Commandments are pretty spot on and reflected in our laws.” Your sentence says what it says.

    Anyway, less than half of them are, in fact, “reflected in our laws”. Not 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (as parent of teenage boys, I am all too painfully aware of this!), 7 or 10.

  3. Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:38 pm

    “I suppose you only believe in taking direction from burning bushes.”

    You are another one who would benefit from actually reading posts before typing.

    Why would I believe that?

  4. davidwhsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:39 pm
    There has always been a close association between Jewish religion and Christianity. It was there long before British colonialism.
    ===============================================

    Yep, The Torah and the Old Testament do look very similar. To the extent I suspect the early Christian church may have indulged in theft via copyright infringement.

  5. newy boy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:42 pm

    I read it. I disagree. It is included as part of the Service. I do not believe it should be. I have told those who have some influence over the decision what I think.

  6. Western philosophy (Plato, Aristotle etc) and religion have both influenced western cultures, including Australian. But its been a pretty random process.

    It amused me to learn while studying philosophy that knowledge of many of the west’s ancient Greek texts were lost due to the early Christians burning the great Library of Alexandria and then the fall of the (western) Roman Empire. Hence we have Aristotle’s Meta-Physics but not the Physics.

    We got most of our current translations of Ancient Greek texts back thanks to Arab scholars like Avicenna and Avaroes providing translations from Arab sources that were obtained after the Moors conquered medieval Spain. In that era Baghdad was the great centre of learning. Times change.

    I’m sure there are parallel stories in the history of Indian and Chinese cultures. Mao’s cultural revolution didn’t help much with China losing some of its ancient Confucian texts, and many others.

    What is my point? I think its useful to understand your culture and its history, but all cultures evolve over time, with immigration being one of the drivers. Hence I find any notions of cultural superiority childish.

    The alternative is to wall yourself off like Japan under the Tokugawa Shogunate. History has shown that to be a recipe for social and technological decline.

    We fear the cultural outsider, but we should fear isolationism more.

  7. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:41 pm
    Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:38 pm

    “I suppose you only believe in taking direction from burning bushes.”

    You are another one who would benefit from actually reading posts before typing.

    Why would I believe that?
    ==========================================

    You seem to very against the burning of Eucalypt leaves in a smoking ceremony but very pro Judeo-Christian beliefs that among other things involves a burning bush.

    Yet only one is a good old traditional Aussie custom that needs respecting and it is not the Judeo-Christian belief in burning bushes.

  8. Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:30 pm

    “What evidence have you that many of the cultural traditions they have now haven’t been around 60,000 years or more?”

    Why are you asking me that?

    This is why I normally don’t engage with you. Waste of time on stupidity.

  9. Yeah, nah, newy. The fingerprints of protestantism are all over us in a way Greek stuff just isn’t. There’s several things i could point to, but there’s two very distinctive traits I’ll point to now, because they’ve been disgused up thread.

    1. The tendency towards self loathing and self flagellation. It’s really very distinctive, and the modern western world loves it.

    2. Other religions are invariably ethnically and culturally self superior, including the other “abrahamic religions”. Christianity, and particularly protestantism, has been uniquely open and accepting of other cultures and ethnicities. It’s there from the parable of the good Samaritan, throughout the history of the early Church which was uniquely culturally flexible, as evidenced by its embrace by both the Greeks and Romans, to modern black gospel songs. I reckon you can make a strong argument the whole concept of multiculturalism is profoundly Christian.

  10. As far as ‘old’ Australian culture of for God, King and Country this took a severe hammering at places like Ypres WW1.
    Millions died for absolutely nothing other than for a family dispute by Queen Victoria and her horde of offspring.
    After WW2 there were remnants (and I speak of Victoria at the time) with, at school………”I love God and my country, I honour the Queen (in those days) and cheerfully obey my teachers, parents and the law”.
    After spouting this guff we marched into class with Heart of Oak or some other British Imperial tune after the call for “Boys, salute the flag!”
    This empty bullshit was destroyed by a much more cynical generation – my own – who were not going to be conned (e.g. Vietnam War – All the Way with LBJ crap) into this totally false use of so- called “patriotism”.
    I suggest that if this is what is meant by “Australian Culture” then some in this country are even more stupid than I thought.

  11. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:52 pm
    Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:30 pm

    “What evidence have you that many of the cultural traditions they have now haven’t been around 60,000 years or more?”

    Why are you asking me that?
    ============================================

    Because you made the claim they are a modern inventions but provided no evidence for this assertion.

    You have the memory of a goldfish it seems:
    “There’s no Anthropological evidence to support that claim. They are a modern invention.”

  12. Entropy

    Yep, The Torah and the Old Testament do look very similar. To the extent I suspect the early Christian church may have indulged in theft via copyright infringement.

    Of course they did. They all did. Religions evolve through history.

    The Jews did the same from their earlier experiences in Egypt and Mesopotamia. The Zoroastrians should demand back proprietary rights to Noah and the great flood story 😉 It and other parts of the Torah and Old Testament were obviously taken from the epic of Gilgamesh.
    https://bibleinterp.arizona.edu/articles/influence-gilgamesh-bible
    https://www.jpost.com/judaism/article-744821

    The Greek myths also borrowed from earlier Persian sources, again including Gilgamesh.
    https://www.thearchaeologist.org/blog/the-myth-of-gilgamesh-the-worlds-first-epic

    More time elapsed between the writing of Gilgamesh and the new Testament, than between the writing of the New Testament and today. Plenty of time for origins to become obscure.

  13. Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:14 pm

    “Those who don’t respect first Australian customs and tradition that evolved for more than 60,000 years on this great continent are un-Australian and should not be allowed to come here.”

    The only logical end point of this type of statement, being not dissimilar to the claims of never ceding sovereignty and the land is all stolen, is that everyone, including anyone who has immigrant genes since 1788, leave Australia.

    When are you leaving?

    If not, why not?

  14. FUBAR, Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:48 pm:
    ————————

    FUBAR, you’re missing my point. ANZAC commemoration isn’t synonymous with ‘ADF culture’. It is a broader Australian civic tradition involving the ADF, RSLs, ex-service organisations, local councils, community organisations and the general public. There are even ANZAC memorials established or maintained with the involvement of organisations such as Lions Clubs, and dawn services have been held at civilian community sites. Surely, you wouldn’t object if the local Lions Club which was responsible for maintaining the memorial where the dawn service is held was acknowledged!

    So ‘it isn’t part of ADF culture’ isn’t, by itself, a reason for excluding something from an ANZAC service.

  15. Some day future Australian generations will enjoy a sacred meal of Margherita pizza and Barossa shiraz, as they sit down together to watch the Boxing Day test start. Gambling ads will be banned during this holy occasion.

  16. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:02 pm
    Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:14 pm

    “Those who don’t respect first Australian customs and tradition that evolved for more than 60,000 years on this great continent are un-Australian and should not be allowed to come here.”

    The only logical end point of this type of statement, being not dissimilar to the claims of never ceding sovereignty and the land is all stolen, is that everyone, including anyone who has immigrant genes since 1788, leave Australia.

    I have no problems with people being Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Atheist etc. As long as they also respect the customs and traditions of the original inhabitants here. That’s were I draw line on the disrespect of true Australian culture.

    When are you leaving?

    If not, why not?
    ===========================================

    I’m not leaving, I respect their customs and traditions. Only those that don’t should. You do seem to have a comprehension problem with what I wrote though.

    I have no problem with people being of any religion or not. Though to respect this country requires respecting the traditional and original culture of this country. It doesn’t require you to practice it yourself either just respect and reverence for when it is carried out.

  17. What fubar is demonstrating, really, is the critical thinking capabilities of your average white nation supporter. They’re too dumb to know how dumb they are. When it’s demonstrated again and again and again, they just go and blather some more nonsense. I share NO ‘culture’ with that trash, so I’m not going to be adopting his ‘culture’, in spite of him thinking that he speaks for me. The truth is, the only culture he is a part of, is the culture of whinge.

  18. The Wombat, Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:54 pm:
    ——————–

    The Wombat – 1. “self loathing and self flagellation” definitely predate Protestantism in the Christian world. Medieval monasticism? And how much “self loathing and self flagellation” has ever been indulged by the Protestant “moral majority” in the good ole US of A? Many of them seem to have very much lived the “good life”.
    2. I’d say Catholicism has been at least as “open and accepting of other cultures and ethnicities” as has Protestantism. Go into any Catholic church and you’ll see ethnic diversity at least as strong as anywhere else.

  19. In the midst of all this discussion, I am still struggling to understand what aspects of Christian or tradition Australian culture people are being prevented from practicing in this country. Can someone please explain it to me?

  20. Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:09 pm

    If it is stolen and is sovereign territory then you should give it back.

    Why are you refusing?

  21. Asha: “In the midst of all this discussion, I am still struggling to understand what aspects of Christian or tradition Australian culture people are being prevented from practicing in this country.”

    Whingeing about brown people. That’s pretty much it. They feel attacked because they’re not allowed to be bigots without consequences. And let’s face it, there aren’t really any consequences, but that doesn’t stop them whingeing about it.

  22. Entropysays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:56 pm

    “Because you made the claim they are a modern inventions but provided no evidence for this assertion.”

    Ernie Dingo created it in 1976.

  23. Not sure I agree that one group’s culture should be forced onto another group. Things should be allowed to evolve organically. We should just accept and respect that different cultures exist and people are free to adopt or participate in those cultures they are happy to.
    Problems will happen when one culture is held out to be more important than other cultures. Generally we do a reasonable job of managing this.

  24. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:44 pm

    Made an affirmation

    ————

    Sounds fairly woke.

    Not much wokeness back in the 19th century where most of the stuff you seem to believe, belongs.

    Onward christian soldiers, and all that.

  25. “The only logical end point of this type of statement, being not dissimilar to the claims of never ceding sovereignty and the land is all stolen, is that everyone, including anyone who has immigrant genes since 1788, leave Australia.”

    Not correct… There are several other logical end points – ‘mutual agreement that harm was done and that all should work together toward positive outcomes for all’ for a start…

  26. On respecting other people’s culture, personally I don’t ask people to take off their shoes when they enter my house, but I always take off my own shoes if I visit someone and they ask me to. I suspect everyone here is the same.

  27. Ashasays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:14 pm
    In the midst of all this discussion, I am still struggling to understand what aspects of Christian or tradition Australian culture people are being prevented from practicing in this country. Can someone please explain it to me?
    ===========================================

    Currently they are not but the heavily foreign culturally influenced One Nation party is trying to ban traditional First Nations ceremonies should they get into power. They only want to continue with foreign European traditional type ceremonies instead. One Nation is the un-Australian party.

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/2065887917521239/posts/2230307501079279/

  28. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:14 pm
    Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:09 pm

    If it is stolen and is sovereign territory then you should give it back.

    Why are you refusing?
    _______________________________
    It definitely was stolen. I don’t give it back because I don’t want to.

  29. Wiki neither proves or disproves FUBAR’s assertion. It seems ancient smoking ceremonies were for specific occasions, childbirth, circumscision, whereas smoking ceremonies for welcome to country is a fairly modern usage.

  30. I have no self-loathing in regards to my faith, since I have no faith. And I actually have quite a high regard for Australian cultural values in general, though I suspect what I consider to be our core values might differ from those of others here.

    Nor do I favour any religion or religious demonination over another. My opinion on them all is largely the same: as long people arn’t using their faith as an excuse to harm or to control others, they should be permitted to do so freely. They are all similar varieties of nonsense to me.

    I personally find the idea of someone having either pride or shame for the circumstances of my birth or for things that my forebearers did to just be a bit… strange.

    I am not proud or ashamed of being white, or of being of mostly British and European heritage, or of being Australian – those are simply things that I am. I save my pride and shame for things that I have personally done. I have no control over my genetics or over what other people do, so why would such things ever cause me pride or shame.

  31. nathsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:37 pm
    FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:14 pm
    Entropy says:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:09 pm

    If it is stolen and is sovereign territory then you should give it back.

    Why are you refusing?
    _______________________________
    It definitely was stolen. I don’t give it back because I don’t want to.
    =======================================

    No one can accuse you of not following Collingwood supporter traditional cultural practices.

  32. David:

    Not sure I agree that one group’s culture should be forced onto another group. Things should be allowed to evolve organically. We should just accept and respect that different cultures exist and people are free to adopt or participate in those cultures they are happy to.
    Problems will happen when one culture is held out to be more important than other cultures. Generally we do a reasonable job of managing this.

    Well said.

  33. ICAC camera has caught ass commissioner Gleeson with his head back & eyes closed.. not for the first time… I think this is Fabian’s way of not screaming out loud from Charle’s non stop lying… I think Claude gets a life sentence.

  34. @Leader:

    “Asha, I like your logic:

    “Vapes should be legal. They are harmful, yes, but significantly less so than cancer sticks.”

    Assault by knife should be legal too. They are harmful, yes, but are significantly less so that assault by guns.”

    Nice strawman, there. The difference between Asha’s logic and your “logic” is simple:

    Cigarettes (aka “cancer sticks”) are perfectly legal in Australia. Asha’s position is that – since cigs are legal – things less harmful should also be legal. I’m not sure I entirely agree, but I can see the logic there.

    Assault by firearms is NOT legal at this time; thus, using it to argue that assault by blade should be legal is bad logic.

  35. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:19 pm

    Ernie Dingo created it in 1976.

    ————–

    This is an outrageous slur against Mr Dingo.

  36. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 2:37 pm
    I am, in point of fact, a particularly haughty and exclusive person, of Adamite ancestral descent. You will understand this when I tell you that I can trace my ancestry back to a protoplasmal primordial atomic globule. Consequently, my family pride is something inconceivable. I can’t help it. I was born sneering. But I struggle hard to overcome this defect. I mortify my pride continually
    _________________________
    well said

  37. Charles needs to temper that when he faces a criminal jury trial he can argue how many angels fit on the head of a pin.. the jury don’t care.. it’s a case of what inference they draw from him & his evidence, they will take 30 minutes to find him guilty as charged.

  38. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has been asking people if they would be willing to work on his potential 2028 presidential campaign, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday night.
    Cruz ran for president in 2016 in an especially nasty Republican primary against Donald Trump, who clinched the nomination and later the presidency. After Trump lost in 2020, Cruz declined to run in 2024, when Trump trounced the likes of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and former Vice President Mike Pence. But now, Cruz appears poised to challenge Vice President JD Vance, who is widely expected to run in 2028.
    https://www.mediaite.com/politics/ted-cruz-is-reportedly-asking-people-to-work-on-his-2028-presidential-campaign/

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