The Financial Review has the first Victorian state poll since last week’s leadership change, courtesy of RedBridge/Accent Research. The results are not encouraging for Labor, who are down three on the same pollster’s result a month ago to 23%. The Coalition is up four on a soft primary vote result last month to 30%, but One Nation is down five to 22% while the Greens gain one to 14%. Labor trails the Coalition 57-43 on two-party preferred; the Financial Review’s graphic confusingly has One Nation with a 54-43 lead over the Coalition. Ben Carroll records a minus 15% on net favourability, though 57% said they had no strong impression of him. Jess Wilson is unchanged at plus 13% net favourability. Nineteen per cent said the leadership change made them more likely to vote Labor compared with 14% for less likely and 56% for no difference. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1014.
UPDATE: I missed another poll out overnight, from Freshwater Strategy in the Herald Sun, although its field work period of July 21 to August 3 began well before the leadership change on July 28. It has the Coalition at 30%, up three on the last such poll in June; Labor at 25%, up two; One Nation at 22%, down three; and the Greens steady at 14%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is in from 53-47 to 52-48. Ben Carroll records 21% favourable, 31% neutral and 29% unfavourable; Jess Wilson 39% favourable, 25% neutral and 21% unfavourable. The sample for the poll was 1020.
Further Victorian election news:
• The government’s legislation to abolish group voting tickets is now before the upper house, having been introduced to the lower house on the same day Jacinta Allan was deposed and passed the following day. Reflecting the practice for the Senate, above-the-line voters will be directed to fill a number of boxes above the line equal to the number of vacancies (so five rather than six for the Senate), though a savings provision will in fact mean that a single number one will suffice for a formal vote. Since the legislation leaves intact the state’s eight five-member regions with their quota for election of 16.7% (abolishing them would require a referendum), Labor, the Coalition, One Nation and the Greens seem likely to dominate.
• One Nation finally announced a slate of eight candidates yesterday, and designated state party president Warren Pickering as its prospective parliamentary leader, and candidate for the lower house seat of Pakenham. The others named were lead upper house candidates: high-profile Liberal Party defector Colleen Harkin in South-Eastern Metropolitan; Mark Nicholson, the animator behind the party’s cartoon web series and Super Progressive Movie feature, in Northern Metropolitan; Chris Burson, Geelong councillor and former police officer and Angry Victorians candidate, in Western Victoria; criminal lawyer Aaron Sandford in Southern Metropolitan; Fiona Lopez in Western Metropolitan; Natalie Adams in Eastern Metropolitan; and the party’s sole incumbent, Rikki-Lee Tyrrell, who will seek re-election in Northern Victoria.
• As well as Jacinta Allan announcing she will not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in her seat of Bendigo East (margin 10.8%), two further senior ministers announced their impending retirements in the wake of last week’s leadership change: Climate Change Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, who holds Mill Park on a margin of 11.6%; and Health Minister Harriet Shing, who was second on Labor’s Eastern Victoria upper house ticket in 2022.
• Kim O’Keeffe announced last fortnight she will not recontest Shepparton, which she gained for the Nationals from independent Suzanna Sheed in 2022. Chip Le Grand of The Age reports Steve Threlfall, a Shepparton councillor and shooting and sports store owner, has confirmed he is seeking One Nation preselection, and there are suggestions the mayor, Shane Sali, could ran for One Nation or either of the Coalition parties.
• Will Fowles, who became Labor’s member for Ringwood in 2022 and resigned from the parliamentary party in August 2023, has announced he will not stand at the election.
Interesting and broadly accurate is the article by Faine at The Guardian
The government of Andrews was a pragmatic, get it done government
The focus was “get it done”
And, despite the attacks of Murdoch and 9 Entertainment, it was successively elected by ever increasing majorities, indeed landslides
So the public per se appreciated a government which got things done, even withstanding a Pandemic and those that Pandemic exposed, so recalcitrants marching in our streets
The government wanted an outcome in the fire fighting area – where the CFA was a branch office of the Liberal Party and not fit for purpose – and it got that outcome including employment terms and conditions and wages for those employed in that industry
So who is doing the complaining and why?
Not those employed in the industry, obviously
We see the actions of teachers and doctors at public hospitals, with strike action
And, no doubt, in due course, the powerful Police Union will attract similar headlines
All fighting government for outcomes for their members – so perhaps we need another Andrews to bang heads together and get an outcome, then moving on
With the actions of these Unions, imagine if there were a Liberal government
Recall Kennett – my wife was a teacher and she certainly remembers Kennett and the damage he wrought
Noting Kennett and his cronies are writing the script for the IPA, high fashion girl who is currently Opposition leader
Noting that governments are there to govern
Not to be dictated to by big business and the media they own
As Faine concludes, what a wet squib despite the opposition carry on and the media headlines
Perhaps the focus could be put on Corporate Australia, which is in the headlines every day ripping people off for whatever they can get out of the pockets of people (noting their egos!!)
David
I am waiting for the relevant ministers to say to the teachers’ and doctors’ unions respectively –
“This is our last offer this year before the election. If you don’t accept it we will revisit it next year if we are still in government, otherwise you will have to deal with a Liberal-National-One Nation government.” (Good luck!)
Thanks Nadia, I like those Greens numbers you’ve highlighted
Kos Samaras – Victorian Labor’s collapse isn’t about debt. It’s about 2020
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/08/victorian-labors-collapse-isnt-about-debt-its-about-2020/
“Victorian Labor’s collapse is not only about debt, crime or infrastructure blowouts, but a delayed reckoning from communities that felt broken by lockdowns and ignored by the recovery.
:::
Then suddenly everything changed. Thirty-six in March 2024, 35 in June, 31 by August, 30 by spring. It never returns to the mid-thirties. In June 2026 it sits at 26, level with the Coalition on 26 and behind One Nation on 27, in a sample of more than 5,500 Victorians. This week, it has collapsed to 23, a historic low.
:::
The June 2026 breakdowns settle the question of what kind of divide this is, and the answer is not the one usually offered.
It is not fundamentally geographic. …
It is educational, and the gradient is enormous.
:::
The generational pattern points the same way. ….
:::
So, the inner suburbs are having an argument about who should govern. The outer suburbs and the regions are having a different argument about whether the people who govern are worth anything at all. That is the geographic finding, and it is a more serious one than a swing.
:::
The central analytical error, in government and in most of the commentary since, is treating the lockdown as a single shared experience. It was not. It divided along a line that ran straight through the metropolitan map, and the line was whether your job could be done from a spare room.”
We had 3 elections since lockdowns and ALP did well in each of them now Kos is saying ALP struggling in Victoria because of lockdowns during pandemic. Nonsense.
Kos was also saying ALP should stick with JA while she was increasingly toxic.
Kos says a lot of things, some of them absolute rubbish.
H.B.G.,
Yep, the Greens vote is clearly holding up in the areas where they are generally competitive.
The Federal figures recently out of Victoria for the Greens are, sort of, good too. {They pulled 16% recently, in our second largest state}.
Without being much of an analyst on these numbers, it looks like younger Labor voters (Gen Z types) are moving (fleeing) to the Greens, perhaps hoping the Greens may provide a bulwark in the new Parliament. Labor is still at 26% in the inner city, but this area is really their base. ie: it’s not a flash primary for Labor in their home turf.
The 38% Lib primary vote in the inner (& middle) Melbourne area is of concern. It’s quite high, and I assume it is in Council areas such as Kooyong, Stonnington, Glen Eira, Port Phillip, Kingston & Melbourne. I don’t think inner council areas such as Darebin or Merri-Bek will have the Libs registering much of a pulse.
I think a lot of Labor’s sandbelt seats will flip Lib on these numbers.
For non-Victorian’s, the sandbelt area is the middle south east of Gtr Melbourne.
The area roughly ranging from Bentleigh to Frankston following the spine of the Nepean Hwy.
South of Frankston is known as the Peninsula (ie Mornington Peninsula).
Gorks says:
Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 6:54 pm
We had 3 elections since lockdowns and ALP did well in each of them now Kos is saying ALP struggling in Victoria because of lockdowns during pandemic. Nonsense.
Kos was also saying ALP should stick with JA while she was increasingly toxic.
======================
Kos was rabbiting on about the “goats cheese circle” in Melbourne a couple of months ago.
I know it’s just a gimmicky term, but his polling company has now just provided a 38% primary for the Libs in the so called goats cheese circle.
Anyway, I know where you’re coming from Gorks.
Kos is good, and so is his colleague, Tony Barry. Kos might do a bit of waffle, but generally he’s fairly good on pseph stuff.
Nadia
Kingston isn’t inner city, the Liberal Party have support in the Pascoe Vale South and Strathmore parts of Merri-Bek.
He has zero emphasis on 3 term governments and how historically hard it is to be re elected. No mention of federal drag state parties suffer when same party is in government. How we are in cost of living crises, high inflation, high interest rate environment.
No, its the lockdowns. After rewarding ALP 3 times in a row, voters remembered lockdowns and now angry.
I have plugged the latest Redbridge poll into my model and I am getting a result of:
ALP – 21
Green – 5
Liberal – 40
National – 7
ON – 13
Too close to call – 2 – Essendon (I was surprised by that) and Benambra
I am least confident with that ON number – it is inflated by seats in the Western Suburbs – the ones where there were lots of candidates in 2022 and the major party vote was suppressed.
The other issue is that Labor may actually improve in seats like Benambra, Shepparton, Mildura and South West Coast where there were strong indies last time. My model has Labor with a negative score in Mildura. That would suggest bigger swings elsewhere which I suspect to be in Ballarat and Geelong.
It would seem that that ON would seem very competitive in 6 to 7 seats and Labor would be a few seats higher.
Gorks
Kos is covering for his claim the political cycle was broken despite Labor having a 2% TPP swing against in 22.
Liberals polling 38% in the inner city points to a recovery in their vote back to where it should be.
Landlord of the Year says:
Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 7:05 pm
Nadia
Kingston isn’t inner city, the Liberal Party have support in the Pascoe Vale South and Strathmore parts of Merri-Bek.
=========
Landlord,
The demographic breakdown of the poll data posted up-thread grouped the inner city with the middle ring. Check page 5 of their report.
Kingston is well within the middle ring of Melbourne suburbs.
Nadia
It would also covers the safe Liberal Bayside seats of Brighton and Sandringham.
Gorks says:
Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 7:06 pm
He has zero emphasis on 3 term governments and how historically hard it is to be re elected. No mention of federal drag state parties suffer when same party is in government. How we are in cost of living crises, high inflation, high interest rate environment.
No, its the lockdowns. After rewarding ALP 3 times in a row, voters remembered lockdowns and now angry.
=================
Gorks,
Yeah, Kos uses a lot of euphemisms. I don’t mind Kos’ analysis, but I prefer to read what some of the other posters on PB have to say.
Per the lockdown issue. Victorian’s had their say on “lockdowns” at the 2022 election. Andrews picked up an extra seat! I don’t believe voters suddenly remember that they were in lockdown for 105 days, after 5 years, and wish to seek retribution now.
I think the main issue in Victoria was the report in February by Mr Watson regarding the missing $15b within the Big Build, and the subsequent ducking and weaving by the state gov’t.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-12/cfmeu-inquiry-report-corruption/106333306
Landlord of the Year says:
Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 7:17 pm
Nadia
It would also covers the safe Liberal Bayside seats of Brighton and Sandringham.
============
Which is an area considered part of the sandbelt.
What’s the point you are making
nadia
We talking about why the Liberals were on 38%.
Landlord,
Here is the full Redbridge report.
https://6b72024e-077a-44e2-88f5-dc1a0ed81099.usrfiles.com/ugd/b86980_dca98962b02540e08b82dc3734482169.pdf
Page 5 has the breakdown based along the lines of inner-middle metro, outer metro & rural-regional.
The council area of Kingston falls within the inner-middle metro area. I’m using the definitions provided in the Redbridge-Accent report.
The Kingston Council area is def not outer Melbourne (that is more Pakenham, Kal Kallo & Werribee), nor is it considered part of rural-regional Victoria (ie: Sale, Ballarat, Horsham, Mildura etc etc).
As for the Libs on 38% in this inner-middle area, I’ve suggested their vote won’t be “banked up” in inner Northern area’s such as Brunswick or Pascoe Vale. Gosh, the Libs came 3rd behind Labor & the greens in Pascoe Vale in 2022. Vic Socialists will probably overtake them there in the next decade.
It will most likely be in southern inner-middle metro area’s of Melbourne.
Landlord of the Year says:
Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 7:26 pm
nadia
We talking about why the Liberals were on 38%.
=======
Fair enough.
Brighton – well that swung back to the Libs at the last Federal election (Goldstein).
Sandringham – yes, strong Lib area.
I’m more thinking about seats such as Bentleigh, Oakleigh, Carrum, Frankston, Mordialloc (the sandbelt seats)
Nadia:
That was John Black, as per this article:
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-rise-of-the-aspirational-left-voter-who-is-remaking-politics-20230224-p5cndx
I’m not sure why you keep pinning that phrase on Samaras – he says some questionable things too sometimes, but that wasn’t one of them.
No worries Bird, I’ll withdraw the comment about Kos Samaras and the goats cheese circle.
I can’t find anything on the Redbridge substack relating to this, though I’m sure he made reference to this term in late May.
I believe it relates to a twitter post of his on 31-May, which was discussed by myself and others on PB in the ensuing days.
Link: https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/27/federal-polls-roy-morgan-and-essential-research-open-thread/comment-page-34/#comment-4727165
The link has been removed off his account, so I shan’t make reference to it again.
There is a flaw with Kos Samaras analysis in which makes an assumption and then just says too early tht is the conclusion and just assuming everyone is genuine and has working class roots. His post regarding the context SRL and the claim that the One Nation base is static at 6% already puts me off.
Nadia – Thanks for sharing the regional breakdowns and respondent preferences from this Redbridge poll.
Regional breakdowns:
– Inner and middle metro – ALP 26%, L/NP 38%, ONP 13%, GRN 18%, OTH 5%.
– Outer metro – ALP 21%, L/NP 29%, ONP 27%, GRN 13%, OTH 10%.
– Rural and regional – ALP 24%, L/NP 24%, ONP 25%, GRN 10%, OTH 17%.
Respondent preferences:
– Greens – 92% to ALP, 8% to L/NP.
– One Nation – 10% to ALP, 90% to L/NP.
– Coalition – 35% to ALP, 65% to ONP.
– Labor – Not provided.
Agree that the Coalition dominating inner and middle Melbourne is very interesting. The strength of One Nation preference flows to the Coalition is also remarkable, especially when contrasted with the relative weakness of preference flows in the other direction.
Inner and middle metro – The Liberals should have plenty of wins in traditional ALP-L/NP contests. Greens preferences should help Labor save seats.
Outer metro – Labor is especially weak here and could be excluded third in a number of seats, where their preferences will surely deliver for the Coalition. Labor’s best chance of retaining seats here will be where the Coalition is excluded third.
Rural and regional – Will be very messy with all three parties on primaries within a percentage point and with others relatively high. One Nation should be picking up a number of seats from both major parties, with Coalition losses likely limited thanks to Labor preferences.
If these figures were replicated at an election, they would almost inevitably result in a Coalition majority government thanks to Labor preferences!
What is not being factored in is that the Liberal Party as a brand is in terminal decay
Look at the headlines from NSW
Look at the headlines from the Woman’s Council in SA, a factor of the Ancic Far Right being in control ahead of his ascension to Party President (the abortion debate back on the agenda)
And here in Victoria?
Cormack where the hatred’s linger
The Deeming (Religious Right) v Pesutto (IPA) and the Victorian Division taking escrow over Pesutto’s superannuation entitlements to save him from bankruptcy (and where that fight continues unabated between the factions over that decision)
Just for starters
Then we have the untested young girl, a parakeet of high fashion from the IPA, as leader, a parrot for the Kennett faction (which includes her father) and which writes her lines for her
So totally untested in the public forum – the cut and thrust of politics including on the election trail
The Faine article at The Guardian describes politics – getting things done (and that is no pure, Lily white exercise) because, as in all walks of life deals are done (even at Court!!!)
Being a parakeet of high fashion and getting your photo in the (biased) media does not cut it
When the polling tightens, as it will, look for the pressure SHE (and the Liberal Party is sexist) will be under including particularly internally (Sukkar and Bastiaan recruited to take control for the Religious Right and those numbers are still there including in the parliament)
A re-run of Keating in 1993 is my guess
The image:-
says a confused French observer of the political sight in Victoria. (with help of AI)
So the honest headline should be reported as :-
(with the help of AI)
Do they still do honest headlines?
Again from The Guardian
Minns not playing politics with the problems of the Opposition in NSW but continuing to govern contrast with the girl from the IPA
When calling others names you have to be very, very careful
Including because what is being exposed in NSW replicates Victoria with Sukkar and Bastiaan who are still very influential with the numbers
That 65-35 split of Coalition preferences to One Nation is actually about what I expect and had been using in my modelling, despite it going against what a lot of other psephologists have been assuming which is that LNP preferences will flow even stronger to ON than ON preferences will to LNP based on elections like SA.
My reasoning is actually very similar to something Marh touched on a page back.
Which is when you look at the net swings, eg. +20 to ON, only -5 for LNP, and a much bigger swing against Labor, I don’t read that as a direct Labor to ONP swing. There would be more happening beneath the surface.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the swing of actual LNP voters to ON is in double digits, but that’s being offset by an even larger ALP to LIB swing also in double digits.
What’s the net result of that? The makeup of the LIB vote changes quite dramatically, from being the traditional mix of populist/conservative types and traditional LIB moderates, to a situation where the populist/conservative types are likely to already be in ONP column and the LIB vote is now more a mix of the traditional LIB voters and ALP/LIB swing voters who probably voted Labor in 2018-22 (and maybe even 2014).
This is where I think an election like SA is a bad comparison for preference flows, because in the context of an election where a popular Labor government were certain to win the missing factor there is that there would NOT have been a double-digit ALP to LIB swing going on behind the numbers like there is in Victoria. In fact there was probably little to no ALP to LIB swing at all, which would mean the makeup of that LIB vote would be quite different to what’s probably happening in the Victorian polling.
I do expect a pretty strong ONP to LIB preference flow in Victoria despite ONP preferences usually not being particularly disciplined, because the ONP supporters here are really about as vocally anti-Labor as you can get right now. Probably not 90-10, but north of 80-20 sounds pretty likely to me.
Whereas I think the LIB preferences, especially now with the change of leader, will probably have a comparatively weak flow to ONP simply because so much of that LIB vote will be comprised of moderate swing voters who probably voted Labor the last 2-3 elections.
Are we really going to do this? A Wilson-Pickering government will destroy so much of what makes our state unique, doing untold damage to our economy and our culture. I know the ALP isn’t great but surely installing a cookerocracy is not the answer?!
Those thoughts are crossing plenty of minds!
Depends on how the ON vote holds up once the candidates are announced for the lower house.
The new ON leader in Victoria announcement has caused a ripple and it could be more before the election.
Herald Sun 07/08
Melbourne’s Deputy Lord Mayor Roshena Campbell has won the top spot on the Liberal’s Western Metropolitan upper house ticket, taking the position vacated by Moira Deeming.
Ms Campbell had been up against the sitting MP Trung Luu, who was second placed on the ticket.
_______________________
Seems a good choice.
She did have a crack at the Aston byelection a few years ago so has done the hard yards.
Married to News journo James Campbell which some may have an issue with.
@Trent
Applying a statewide LNP – ONP preference flow is near useless if you ask me
The major movement from ALP to LIB is probably occurring in inner/middle suburbs (as Redbridge points to) or wealthier outer suburbs (Point Cook, Croydon, Rowville etc) where Liberal preferences are unlikely to be distributed. In seats like Kew, Prahran or Hawthorn Liberal preferences could notionally split close to 50/50 between ONP and ALP/IND. Likewise as you say out in the deep rurals where LNP vs ONP contests are likely on current numbers you again are unlikely to see instances of Liberal or Nat preferences distributing, it is in these areas where the Coalition vote is getting savaged by ONP, but they can absorb big losses and still retain their seats.
However in the more working class outer suburbs there has likely been a greater exchange of votes between ALP and ONP, as well as from other RW minor parties to ONP, Liberal HTVCs will probably help achieve preference flows of 70% or so in these areas specifically, where Liberal preferences happen to be more likely to actually be distributed.
As a former stooge I can deeply sympathise. When the party you love is unprepared to fight for what you believe, what it says it believes, it is soul destroying. When the leaders who are supposed to brave fighters for the cause, are weak and directionless, and split their time between idiotic factional games and self aggrandisement and enrichment.
It physically hurts.
But you have confused who is wearing the blinkers.
Should have gone to spec savers huh.
Pretty easy to be smug about being right when the other side is literally supplying military parts for a genocide and a fully owned pawn of the gambling industry and others. The commitment to trickle down economics matches bizz con doesn’t help much either.
There is a story at the ABC in regard the property developer, Landmark, and affordable housing in Sydney (but no doubt elsewhere)
Worth the read
And just another story re corporate activities, of which there appears a new story every day
But the focus of certain in the media landscape is to religiously attack Unions, not these Corporate entities acting as they do
Why is that?
Because they advertise in a failing media?
Also the Geelong FC, where the President at the time of entering into the concussion “agreement” with a player is now the Chair at the AFL
Then that a substantial donor to Geelong was donating proceeds of crime (so money laundering?)
You could not make this stuff up
But let’s attack Unions and the can do ex Premier
I travel the Eastern Freeway at least once a week – and I marvel at the works starting with the engineering (particularly after the closure as this weekend and to then see the differences)
These assets are required for our future generations (noting the rail system is now going to see a significant increase in services courtesy of the recently opened project)
These are a responsibility of government (along with schools and hospitals)
The only thing I would say is that when you embark on these required projects, you do it once and you do it properly
So doing things by stages is something to be avoided
You commit and you do it – noting you take these things to elections and win those elections
Hence you crash thru any impediments to deliver
Noting politics
And this morning one who is experienced in military matters has covered that AUKUS in 2 dimensional – the interchange of information and capacities THEN the submarine “deal” cut by Morrison and which does not stand up to scrutiny at any level
Again, politics gets in the way because the LNP attack awaits Labor withdrawing from the submarine “deal” of Morrison (now earning his income where?)
Roshena Campbell has been selected to replace Moria Deeming on the ballot in Western Metro. She was the Liberals candidate at the federal by-election in Aston in 2023 and a City of Melbourne councillor. Her husband, James, is the political editor of the Herald-Sun.
Now, Roy Morgan released a poll (Aug 5-7) for Victorian Election
LNP Coalition 26%, ALP 26% , One Nation 23.5% and 24.5% support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5%, Other Parties 4% and Independents 8%.
LNP 51% to ALP 49% in TPP
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10303-victorian-state-voting-intention-august-2026
Dubious polling method so primaries and 2PP to be taken with a grain of salt, but steady growth for the LNP on primaries in this series from 21.5 in Feb to 26 now, ALP has barely moved and ONP peaked at 26 in Feb now down to 23.5.
Some really strange preference flows reported here. ‘Others’ flowing 95-5 to Labor against the LNP but only 58-42 against ONP, and again crazy high flows from GRN to Labor and ONP to LNP
Marh – Thanks for sharing the Roy Morgan poll.
Limited regional breakdowns from Roy Morgan:
– Melbourne – ALP 26.5%, L/NP 24.5%, ONP 22%, GRN 13%, OTH 14%.
– Regional – ALP 24.5%, L/NP 30%, ONP 28.5%, GRN 9%, OTH 8%.
Victorian Labor will be happy to be matching the Coalition on primaries. The Coalition will be happy to be ahead of One Nation.
Labor are holding up better in Melbourne than in Redbridge, though it would be more helpful if we had inner and outer metro breakdowns. The Coalition is holding up better in regional areas than in Redbridge.
Based on these numbers, Roy Morgan suggests a hung parliament with no clear winner, in contrast to a highly likely Coalition majority in Redbridge and a potential Coalition majority in Freshwater.
For the leaders – Carroll and Wilson are both doing well in Roy Morgan, whereas Pickering looks like a poor choice by One Nation.
The biggest difference for Roy Morgan that I noticed compared to other polls is that there is less age polarization especially with 18-34 leaning significantly more right (52% ALP to 48% LNP in TPP) compared with other polls (where the combined ALP + Green Vote is often at least 60%)
Marh – Thanks for sharing the Roy Morgan poll.
Limited regional breakdowns from Roy Morgan:
– Melbourne – ALP 26.5%, L/NP 24.5%, ONP 22%, GRN 13%, OTH 14%.
– Regional – ALP 24.5%, L/NP 30%, ONP 28.5%, GRN 9%, OTH 8%.
Victorian Labor will be happy to be matching the Coalition on primaries. The Coalition will be happy to be ahead of One Nation.
Labor are holding up better in Melbourne than in Redbridge, though it would be more helpful if we had inner and outer metro breakdowns. The Coalition is holding up better in regional areas than in Redbridge.
Based on these numbers, Roy Morgan suggests a hung parliament with no clear winner, in contrast to a highly likely Coalition majority in Redbridge and a potential Coalition majority in Freshwater.
For the leaders – Carroll and Wilson are both doing well in Roy Morgan, whereas Pickering looks like a poor choice by One Nation.
———————————————————————–
That Redbridge Poll for Labor was an outlier. 4 days previous Newspoll has Labor 28%, LNP 30%, ON 19%. Most polls have Labor 26 to 27%. LNP stink too. Infighting, disunity, 5 leadership changes. People are struggling to trust them, which opens the door to Labor. It’s why the polls are close, whereas, normally, you’d think the LNP would be well in front. Normally, as they say, disunity is death. I reckon on the day there’s a good chance that alot of Labor inner city votes will go left to the Greens rather than right. Greens might pick up quite a few seats that the LNP were hoping to get in the inner city. As might some Teals.
Morgan SMS poll? The experts don’t like them so I’ll pass as well
Looks like there is yet another poll in the Herald Sun, if anyone has access.
Link: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Fnew-poll-reveals-six-in-10-victorians-believe-state-is-on-wrong-track%2Fnews-story%2F4df52b214a38478707118a5c48cab82e&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-2-NOSCORE
Jim L –
I intentionally only compared to the polls since the leadership change here. The Victorian Newspoll was discussed on a previous thread.
Yes, the regional breakdown from Redbridge suggests the Greens are strong in inner Melbourne. Greens preferences should protect a number of Labor seats.
Victorian Labor were previously performing relatively well in Redbridge, so it will be interesting to see the numbers in the next Redbridge. Resolve is due soon, so it will be especially interesting to see whether their primaries shift in a similar direction to Redbridge’s. And hopefully we’re due a DemosAU soon.
No Favour,
The Resolve poll should hopefully turn up on Sunday night circa 6PM, but that will be the Federal figures. The Vic data will turn up a day or so later. Newspoll (Federal) is due Sunday evening too, but around 9PM.
DemosAU polled Victoria in Feb & Jun. Don’t know if they’ll drop a state poll soon (but I hope).
We should have a Federal DemosAU poll in the next week though.
Nadia –
This article is referring to the same Freshwater poll:
“The findings come as Premier Ben Carroll attempts to reset Labor after taking over the leadership last week with hopes of arresting devastating low polling results.”
“The latest polling puts the Coalition in an election winning position with a two-party preferred primary vote of 52 to 48.”
“The latest Freshwater Poll, of 1020 voters, showed Labor did not lead the Coalition on any key issue, with voters backing Opposition Leader Jess Wilson to better manage key concerns.”
“It found 60 per cent of those surveyed believed Victoria was headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 24 per cent said the state was heading in the right direction.”
And Resolve are now releasing Victorian polls monthly, so we should be due one soon!
The Roy Morgan poll
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10303-victorian-state-voting-intention-august-2026
Anger over Deeming replacement
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/slap-in-the-face-anger-over-deeming-replacement-for-melbourne-s-west-20260807-p60mb1.html
From that Herald Sun article:
Not by those numbers. A vanilla 2pp swing of 7% would just knock Labor into minority (assuming the four Green seats stay put), but doesn’t put the Libs anywhere near a majority unless One Nation go splat. Basically it’d be a repeat of 2014-18, with the Libs hoping there aren’t any more Geoff Shaw types who get elected.
Deliberately misleading ‘Free Palestine’ party name approved for Victorian election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-08/vec-party-registration-free-palestine-avi-yemini/107009614
“This week a group wanting to register a political party called the “Free Palestine Party” was knocked back because a pro-Israel activist had already registered a party called “Free Palestine”.
Electoral Commissioner Sven Bluemmel said the risk of voters being duped by the registered party’s name was not a matter for the VEC under state laws.”
Why is everyone assuming a uniform swing?
I am sick and tired of people saying “6-7% swing isn’t enough for the Liberals to win”
This is the exact mindset that will see Labor lose in November. Labor won’t win if they trail the TPP by more than a few points.
A 6-7% swing will means tons of seats like Frankston, Carrum, Mordialloc, Melton, Yan Yean, etc will be in play. Because despite most of those seats being above those margins. Those seats will swing more than the statewide TPP swing
The closer you get to Melbourne CBD. The smaller the swing against Labor will be.
Yes, if it was a uniform swing across the state it wouldn’t be enough. But it will not be a uniform swing. Look at the QLD election in 2024. A bunch of safer Labor seats fell while a few seats on tight margins stayed.
Anyone who suggests for a second that 52-48% TPP against Labor will result in a Labor majority is kidding themselves. You don’t know how elections work.
I think a 52-48% would be a coalition minority
If it’s 50-50 by election day then yes, Labor would be re-elected.
Please stop looking at the polls and treating it as a uniform swing. It won’t be. Various seats and regions will swing differently.
There are a bunch of seats in the Southeast that will have a monstrous double digit swing against Labor. While some seats in the CBD and North might have only a tiny swing against. For example, I actually think there’s a chance the premier may get no swing at all against him in Niddrie.
I want Labor to win, but this overconfidence is ridiculous
Daniel T
In a 52/48 result, the most likely result is a minority government.
In 2022, Labor had a 2.3% TPP swing against it for a net gain of 1 seat.
A 52/48 result would be a 7% swing against Labor.
There are four Labor vs Green seats under 7%, if the Greens win them, Labor will have 52 seats. The Liberal Party have to win 8 seats to force Labor into minority government.
The Liberal Party should pick up 8 seats but every seat the Coalition loses to ON, they have to pick up from Labor.
Yes, Labor could lose seats above 7%, Jacinta Allan’s seat is one seat above 7% to watch, Albert Park is another that could fall to the Greens or the Liberal Party.
The TPP isn’t a great guide ATM, the Liberal Party has been underperforming in its heartland, is Kew 4%, is Hawthorn 1.7%, is Malvern 8.1%.
ATM , I see Labor losing all their inner city seats, the Greens win 6 seats but up to 9 seats, and the Liberal Party recover its heartland.
If the Greens win 9 seats, and if the Labor Party wins 36 seats, they form a minority government.
If the Greens win 6 seats, the Labor Party needs 39 seats, a loss of 17 seats, it’s possible but we more likely to see 17 seats switch between Labor, the Greens, the Coalition and ON, the most likely outcome is a minority government.