The Australian brings an adroitly timed state Newspoll result for Victoria, which has Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 31%, One Nation on 19% and the Greens on 13%, with the Coalition leading Labor 52-48 on two-party preferred. This is distinctly weaker for One Nation than other recent polling, and suggests Labor to be more competitive than recent conventional wisdom has allowed. Any notion that this might boost Jacinta Allan ahead of today’s party room vote is torpedoed by her personal ratings of 25% approval and 71% disapproval, which Kevin Bonham informs us is the “worst net satisfaction recorded by a state Premier in the history of Newspoll”. Jess Wilson is on 47% approval and 39% disapproval and leads 51-32 on preferred premier.
Respondents were asked who they would favour to form government out of Labor, the Coalition and One Nation, with respective results of 41%, 35% and 18%, and who they would prefer out of “Jess Wilson and the Liberal-Nationals in alliance with One Nation” and “Jacinta Allan and Labor”, which respectively scored 48% and 42%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035.
As for today’s spill motion, the Herald Sun quotes sources close to Ben Carroll saying they expect 40 to 45 votes in favour with 25 against and four undecided, which supporters of a “confident” Jacinta Allan describe as “inflated”. Should it pass, the question will arise as to whether Jacinta Allan will attempt to pursue the matter unto a ballot of the party membership, as she indicated she would in a letter to the party’s state secretary. This would require 14 party room members to support her nomination, which they might hesitate to do given it would involve a four-to-six week process during which an interim leader would need to be appointed who was not contesting the ballot. The Australian reports “disagreement within Labor” as to whether caucus has the power to prevent this by changing back to the more traditional method of choosing a leader.
The Herald Sun also published results on Saturday of polling conducted by JWS Research for Australian Energy Producers targeting 1000 respondents across “28 marginal and significant seats between June 26 and July 3” that shows a 9% swing from Labor to the Coalition in two-party preferred terms, compared with the 7% recorded by Newspoll. The primary votes were Coalition 29%, One Nation 24%, Labor 23% and Greens 14%, which offers only so much insight in the absence of detail on which seats were polled, though we are told the equivalent results in 2022 were Labor 44%, Coalition 44% and Greens 9% (One Nation is credited with 1%, but presumably only ran in a handful of the seats).
I told AI: write a poem about how a man called Goll thought there was not going to be a leadership challenge but was wrong
The Ballad of Goll
There once was a fellow named Goll,
Who laughed at the talk of a roll.
“No challenge,” he said,
“Just rumours long dead,”
As the numbers slipped out of control.
He stood with a confident grin,
Declaring no coup could begin.
But behind every door,
They were counting once more,
And quietly plotting to win.
By dawn, all the whispers had grown,
The calm he had claimed overthrown.
For the spill that he swore
Would not trouble his floor
Had arrived with a will of its own.
So remember the lesson of Goll:
In politics, pride takes a toll.
When the backbenchers hum,
And the challengers come,
It is wise not to laugh at a roll.
I gotta say. I’m impressed with AI poetry.
Carroll makes Albo look like Dan Andrews re communication skills.
His controllers will need to be extremely vigilant and disciplined to minimise the exposure.
I think Wilson will dominate him one on one re communication.
Carroll ought to focus heavily on ‘actions speak louder than words’.
nath – Lars hasn’t posted on the Tally Room for a while now.
A “message” from Lars would be good.
Edit – he posted on 27-Jul at 12.48pm
Link: https://www.tallyroom.com.au/65163
Hi Lars!
Nadia, thanks for keeping tabs on Dear Lars. This place is poorer for his absence and I know that several people feel the loss. Particularly OC, Nath, AE and of course yourself.
AI poem about Scott
There once was a man we knew as Scott,
Who trusted one thought more than not:
That Labor would ride,
On a thundering tide,
And win every booth by quite a lot.
He polished his charts with a confident grin,
Marked every red margin as certain to win;
“A landslide,” he cried,
With arithmetic pride,
“The count will be over before it begins.”
But voters, like weather, are hard to command,
They shift with the season, the street, and the land;
The tallies came slow,
And Scott had to know,
That certainty slips like dry beach sand.
So now when predictions grow bold in the room,
And pundits declare who is destined to boom,
Scott still says, “You’ll see—
A red victory spree!
Just wait for the landslide that’s certain to bloom.”
AI poem about nath:
In the forum’s lively, chattering light,
Nath would arrive and set things right;
With a quip and a grin,
He would calmly begin,
And somehow be correct by night.
When threads grew heated and tempers flew,
He’d post one line that everyone knew;
It was sharp, it was neat,
It was hard to defeat,
And annoyingly accurate too.
The regulars cheered when his username shone,
For debates seemed brighter when Nath had logged on;
He was popular there,
With immaculate hair,
And charm that kept scrolling eyes drawn.
Handsome as headlines at dawn’s golden rise,
With wit like a spark in the comments and replies;
If Nath made a call,
It would soon humble all,
And leave every doubter surprised.
So here’s to the poster whose judgment runs bright,
Always quite popular, handsome, and right;
May his comments remain,
Like a well-polished refrain,
The star of the forum each night.
nadia – You can’t use MRP data like that. They are not to be use to judge individual seats as they don’t take into account local issues. All they do is take into account is a bunch of demographic factors from a national survey.
Personally I believe they are overrated.
nath says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 6:50 pm
Nadia, thanks for keeping tabs on Dear Lars. This place is poorer for his absence and I know that several people feel the loss. Particularly OC, Nath, AE and of course yourself.
======================
Lars was very good at providing perspective on “thorny political issues”. I’m guessing he’s probably an ex politician or someone high up in the public service rafters.
I occasionally look at the Tally Room because the posters there focus on psephology.
Lars’ monicker crops up every so often, & yes, I do miss his commentary here but I can get it there.
Herald Sun 27/07
Late on Tuesday, the names of Labor MPs who signed Sonya Kilkenny’s nomination to contest the party leadership were being leaked.
The move is being seen as a deliberate attempt to expose those who backed Ms Kilkenny’s tilt at the top job publicly following the shock toppling of Ms Allan.
The MPs who signed Kilkenny’s nomination are Jacinta Allan, Tim Richardson, Michaela Settle, Meng Heang Tak, Bronwyn Halfpenny, Jackson Taylor, Jordan Crugnale, Katie Hall, Lily D’Ambrosio, Maree Edwards, Mary-Anne Thomas, Nick Staikos, Paul Mercurio, Steve Dimopoulos and Steve McGhie.
_______________________
Why would they leak that ?
Seems very petty to me.
This disunity looks like it is going to go on and on and on.
One of the most obnoxious gotchas employed by the MSM – hack reporter “do you deny that you will (0r will not) do a certain thing?”. It’s on a par with the old chestnut “have you stopped beating your wife?” Then the hack writes as below.
B. S. Fairman says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 6:56 pm
nadia – You can’t use MRP data like that. They are not to be use to judge individual seats as they don’t take into account local issues. All they do is take into account is a bunch of demographic factors from a national survey.
Personally I believe they are overrated.
========
Yes BSF I realise you can’t transfer Fed vote to state, and I’m not trying to either.
The point I was making is that the “Tory” vote is currently holding up in Wilson’s seat of Kew.
Poster Scott mentioned that Wilson will lose her seat, but I don’t believe she will.
But yes, I accept you can’t transfer Fed vote intention to a state district.
Out of interest, did you have a look at that MRP. Division of Maranoa (Littleprouds seat) has a 51% primary vote for O.N., and it looks like Bob Katter is on his way out in Kennedy too.
Gosh, that MRP hasn’t had much of a work out on this site.
nadia:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 6:44 pm
Seconded.
Nath, desperate and dateless!
Zoomster @6.14 pm.
That’s quite correct. Indeed, it’s true of most Labor politicians these days, although it’s rare for them to be elected quite so young
However, Andrews was able to project a powerful three-dimensional personality and Allan didn’t.
Allan came across as someone who’d always been looked after by the party rather than stand on her own two feet . Whereas Andrews came across as someone who’d seized control of the party and was steering it where he wanted to go.
I can’t comment about Carroll. I’ve barely heard him talk. I’ll be interested to see how he develops in the role
It seems Lars has moved on and has coped better than others post the 2025 election result.
Nath is doing on- line dating via AI.
Nicholas
Jacinta Allan is a leading member of the socialist left, holding left wing views on gender and labour. Jacinta was weak on some social issues but she is a socialist.
Taylormade,
Good to see you so happy.
After 48 hours of acrimony, Ben Carroll’s U-turn for the ages needs to set Victoria on a new course
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jul/28/ben-carroll-premier-u-turn-victoria-labor
“Ben Carroll had hoped to quietly rise to the top job. Instead, he became Victoria’s 50th premier after 48 hours of heated confrontations and shouting matches, all as the public watched on.
It was his first confrontation against the premier, and he emerged from it relatively unscathed.
:::
Carroll has also sought to project a message of fiscal restraint, given Labor’s debt is forecast to reach almost $200bn in coming years. He said his first job at his local Kmart taught him the “value of a dollar”.
“That’s why I understand why Victorians are concerned about government spending. Every dollar my government spends will be treated with respect,” he said.”
Mavis says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 7:07 pm
nadia:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 6:44 pm
‘nath – Lars hasn’t posted on the Tally Room for a while now.
A “message” from Lars would be good.’
Seconded.
=====
Yes, he drops a post there (on the tally room) every so often. Good to see him around.
The Lars v c@t slagfest late last year resulted in him dropping off PB.
Hopefully he’ll return at some point.
Oh, for Christ’s sake …
OK WB – I desist.
No Essential poll update as yet, but YouGov in an hour.
Trent at 3.34
I’ve only just got back home.
Thank you for explanation. It’s a good if not brilliant insight into how this kind of prediction is made.
Nadia – The Redbridge Victorian MRP (which had the Liberals retaining Kew) and the other recent Redbridge poll with a Legislative Council region breakdown (Liberals on 37% in Southern Metropolitan) are probably more relevant than anything federal to predict the outcome in Kew. Also consider the Coalition are being wiped out at a federal level in regional Victoria in the DemosAU federal MRP, but the Nationals are only losing three seats to One Nation at a state level in the Redbridge Victorian MRP.
Taylormade – Presumably the list was released by others in the Left with the intent to damage the standing of their colleagues ahead of a reshuffle, though the ABC reported Kilkenny herself will retain her roles. D’Ambrosio and Dimopoulos, both mentioned here, were reported to be meeting late last night by The Age (along with the Right’s Symes, not mentioned here).
Trumps war proves MMT, you need resources, money does not solve the problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV0srvwdsqI
What a day!
And in regards the focus on Unions (and there is absolutely nothing wrong with members questioning their focus and impacts versus expectations), it is now noted the payout by Johnson and Johnson after a Court battle lasting how long?
And the progress reported in media on a regular basis if not daily – not
This matter impacts the health and wellbeing of PEOPLE so a health consequence
No doubt the headline of the pay out awarded against the Company (so people in the employ of the Company – so let us call a spade a spade and account responsibility – against people – so akin to who paid the price for sub prime lending etc etc etc – Occupy Wall Street) will last 1 day and the world moves on
Johnson and Johnson contested
Spot the difference?
And it is down to media and vested interests being “business groups” escaping the consequence of their a detrimental actions
Johnson and Johnson advertise in media
Unions do not
Follow the money, hey?
All the way to Capital and Reserves on Balance Sheets
IF you do not invest into infrastructure, education, health and family, what is government about?
Those investments to the benefit of society cost money
Always have and always will
Which government anywhere has no debt and money in the bank – except Trump’s USA of course!!!)
And people bang on about government debt
What is the alternative?
To not invest and to not maintain social amenity organisations (so teachers, police etc etc)
Regardless of that, where is there any mention of debt to GDP, which is the measure
So if you are going to bang on about government debt, what is your alternative?
Privatise everything?
And the question needs to be put to the young girl leading the Liberals noting her Budget reply critical of spending on roads and rail, hospitals and schools
Noting also that on the SBS News, in asking a “question” of the Premier she had to read the question – in a girly voice hesitant as she looked at the paper she was reading from
No wonder they keep her hidden apart from stunts
I believe the Morgan SMS trust/distrust poll will not have voting intention data. Which given it’s an SMS poll is for the best.
MABWMsays:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 9:00 pm
What a day.
_______________________
One thing we learnt.
They all hate each other’s guts.
Let us hope this SDA premier provides the ascendancy that Victoria Labor needs and becomes Labor talisman like other SDA Premier. 🙂
I don’t have issues with a person being religious but that person does not mix religious beliefs with politics and business.
https://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/bills/electoral-amendment-miscellaneous-matters-bill-2026
Currently placeholder but should have information soon.
Today
https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/assembly
GOVERNMENT BUSINESS — NOTICES OF MOTION AND ORDERS OF THE DAY
ELECTORAL AMENDMENT (MISCELLANEOUS MATTERS) BILL 2026 — Second reading
This item must be dealt with by 5.00 pm Thursday under the government business program.
https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/council
ELECTORAL AMENDMENT (GROUP VOTING AND VOTE COUNTING) BILL 2026 — (Aiv Puglielli)
— Second reading — Resumption of debate (Lee Tarlamis).
What I noticed today is that Ben Carroll approach with journalists in different to Andrews and Allan. Andrews and Allan kept journalists at a distance during impromptu press conferences whereas Ben Carroll is at very close quarters with them and addresses them with first names.
I am not sure how Andrews and Allan addressed journalists while referring to them.
@Ven regarding the two SDA Premiers, Carroll supports Gay Marriage and Euthanasia so he isn’t religiously conservative while Malinauskas is more conservative such as his stance on Abortion but he does support Gay Marriage (although initially opposed) and voted Yes in Euthanasia.
Electoral Amendment (Miscellaneous Matters) Bill 2026
https://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/bills/electoral-amendment-miscellaneous-matters-bill-2026
It’s up.
“to remove group voting tickets from Legislative Council elections; and
to improve the operation of that Act and the electoral system in Victoria”
Gosh ,The Age is certainly still whipping itself into a frenzy online with wall to wall war headlines.They must be worried.
There seems to be panic in the pro-Liberal media as well as in the Liberal Party.
They really wanted to face Jacinta Allan but went so far in their attacks that they kicked an own goal.
They know that while Labor are still “on the nose”, the electoral map is extremely friendly to them so even a wipeout-like swing or 2PP likely only results in a narrow Liberal win in seat terms, and as such, only a small Labor recovery is needed to narrowly hold on.
They’ve just reset the contest to make that a little easier for Labor to achieve.
@Trent, one thing that is often overlooked is the rise and popularity of far-right influencers (or at least secretly Right-wing mainly by alpha males) in the past two years and Jacinta Allan was an easy target to promote their far-right agenda since she is deemed a ‘left-wing female’ while lacking Daniel Andrews type of charisma that counters the far-right so through flooding the narrative about how ‘Victoria is broken’ which then goes down to even more moderate conservative to join the far-right bandwagon.
I understand the Vic Parliament can alter the way voting occurs in the Upper House (and that this can be done via legislation, such as today), however if they were to go the whole hog and change the voting to a state wide vote (and not have the 8 Regions), can this also be changed via legislation or would this require a referendum to alter.
I believe there was a referendum clause attached to part of the original legislation way way back in 2003 when Prem Bracks changed the formation of the old Upper House.
nadia,
You are correct about the referendum. Those Bracks changes entrenched the constitution so that it can only be changed by referendum, and the requirement of eight regions each containing eleven contiguous assembly divisions was added to the constitution at the same time.
There was a protracted argument on PB a couple of years ago about whether the entrenchment is legal.
G says:
Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 11:33 am
Electoral Amendment (Miscellaneous Matters) Bill 2026
=======
Thanks for this.
KB is running a live feed of the passage of the legislation thru Parly today.
He reports the main change is a minimum of 5 preferences (ie: 1 + four preferences).
Also, that the parties have to register a HTV and it can’t just have a “just vote 1” directive.
Would be good if they did that saving provision similar to S.A., where if the voter accidently “just votes 1”, then the preferences flow in accordance with the registered HTV ticket.
Anyway, overall I think it’s best they abolish GVT’s (as they appear to be doing today).
KB link here
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/07/group-ticket-voting-going-going-rolling.html
Thanks Ante Meridian,
Got it. So 8 regions housing 11 lower house electorates each = 88 which is the current lower house balance.
Just thinking a bit forward, so even if the Parliament wanted to increase the seats to an odd number, say 89, then this might cause complications with the Upper House hence the referendum clause to try and prevent this being fiddled around with too much.
Victoria is the odd state out with an even number of seats in the lower house. I was hoping down the track this could be changed to 89 (or 87), just so we can never get an election where the two main parties end up with 44 seats apiece.
Actually the Federal Parliament has an even number of lower house seats, so complete der-brain muddle post of mine above.
The Q I’m asking is, if the Victorian Lower house wanted to change their numbers to an uneven figure (say 89), can this be done by legislation or would it require a referendum.
I believe it would need to be done by referendum, unfortunately.
Most of the small parties who benefit from GVT, while they acknowledge GVT sucks, wanted this legislation to go hand in hand with a wider reform of the regions too, so that the quota threshold dramatically reduced (from around 17% currently) to something that is more achievable for minor parties to be elected on their own merit.
But the blocker there was very much that any further changes to regions etc would have needed a referendum and there’s not enough time to do it before this election. It is something hopefully they might look at in the next term, but by then, most minor parties in the LC will already be gone, and none of the MLCs remaining (likely all from the 4 ‘big parties’) will have any incentive to make it easier for minor parties to win seats off them.
Personally I think they should either abolish regions altogether, or if they believe the argument for ensuring there is regional representation has merit, reduce to maybe just 3 regions – two metro and one regional – with maybe 15 MLCs each.
This dramatically reduces the quota threshold to about 6.25% (from almost 17%), while an odd number of regions and MLCs also allows for there to be an odd number of seats. QLD with a smaller poulation has more seats than Victoria, so something like 33 seats per region – for 99 seats total – would make sense.
The 3 regions could be something like Melbourne – Inner, Melbourne – Outer, and Regional (I think splitting Melbourne by inner & outer is a better grouping than by direction or geography, because inner city, outer suburban and regional voters have 3 distinct sets of needs & priorities).
And ‘Regional’ having 33% of seats (but only 25% of the population) means they can’t exactly complain about under-representation, but some peri-urban areas like Melton & Sunbury would likely have to be popped in the ‘Regional’ one.
Of course, that’s all wishful thinking as long as a referendum is required to achieve any of it (beyond just abolishing GVT without touching the number of regions / seats / MLCs).
@Nadia, on the 44 seats apiece part, we were around 260 votes away from that happening in 2010 (45 LNP, 43 ALP), where if only around 260 2PP votes changed from LIB to ALP in Bentleigh, it would have been a 44-44 tie.
We’re heading to a similar scenario (but with no majority) this time around. In that seat projection you asked me to do based on the current BludgerTrack primaries, I ended up with 43 combined ALP+GRN and 45 combined LNP+ON seats if I allocated each ‘tossup’ to where I think it would more likely fall.
This is really shaping up to be an election where I think the combined ‘right’ and ‘left’ seats could both land in the mid-40s so it’s a very possible outcome.
I agree Trent. 44 each will happen at some point, and I’m not too sure how that would work.
I think a minor cosmetic change to 89 seats would probably do the trick, but as I mentioned earlier we have the Federal Parliament on an even number of seats atm. I’m guessing they’ll deal with it down the track.
Cheers for confirming the Upper House Regional Seat structure too & the referendum clause which protects it. Probably they’ll deal with this in the years to come too, and just change it to a big statewide vote. I’m not a big fan of splitting the Upper house terms because of 8 year tenure (too long), but if that is part of the deal down the track then I suppose the public will have their say at a referendum.
A correction to my previous post.
I was under the impression that the whole of Victoria’s constitution was entrenched by the referendum provisions, but that’s not the case. Only certain bits of it are entrenched like that. Some other bits can only be changed by ‘special majority’ of both houses (three fifths or more), while the rest can be changed by simple majority.
The numbers 88 MLAs and 40 MLCs are in the referendum bit.
For anyone wanting to wade through the mind-numbing legalese, see section 18.
https://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/ca1975188/s18.html
Edit: 40 MLC, not 44.
Electoral Amendment (Miscellaneous Matters) Bill 2026 is off to the Leg. Co.
Other than the above bill passing the lower house unanimously, the other highlight of the day must be James Newbury accidentally calling Ben Carroll “Jacinta Allan”. Carroll will need to keep repeating he’s not Andrews or Allan!
A good summary from the Guardian:
“Intense opinion polling will immediately be commissioned. We will quickly know which way the wind is blowing.”
“Neither Carroll, nor the opposition leader, Jess Wilson, is well known to the electorate. Wilson has been in parliament for not even one term and has no ministerial experience.”
“Carroll battled valiantly but nervously in his first question time on Tuesday, just moments after being sworn in by the governor. Opposition MPs, whose own internal feuds have frequently left them looking forlorn in parliament, were for once in full voice, taunting the new leader across the dispatch box.”
“Both sides’ attack lines are being rehearsed. Labor will brand the Liberal-National Coalition as needing support from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation; the Coalition will persist with its claim that a new leader changes nothing for a tired party that has been in office for 12 years.”
“Meanwhile, the spectre of One Nation hovers over all. Hanson has never made inroads in Victoria. Her party has no local leader, no candidates and no policy platform. But according to the polls, for many Victorians, none of that matters.”
Though to be fair to One Nation, I understand they do already have two announced candidates (i.e. Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell and Darren Hercus). Interestingly, News24 (Sky News) reported today that One Nation now have candidates for “up to 76 Victorian seats”, though there is still no mention of a Victorian leader.
How often to Bills get passed unanimously? An interesting development given the lengths it’s taken to get here.