The Australian brings an adroitly timed state Newspoll result for Victoria, which has Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 31%, One Nation on 19% and the Greens on 13%, with the Coalition leading Labor 52-48 on two-party preferred. This is distinctly weaker for One Nation than other recent polling, and suggests Labor to be more competitive than recent conventional wisdom has allowed. Any notion that this might boost Jacinta Allan ahead of today’s party room vote is torpedoed by her personal ratings of 25% approval and 71% disapproval, which Kevin Bonham informs us is the “worst net satisfaction recorded by a state Premier in the history of Newspoll”. Jess Wilson is on 47% approval and 39% disapproval and leads 51-32 on preferred premier.
Respondents were asked who they would favour to form government out of Labor, the Coalition and One Nation, with respective results of 41%, 35% and 18%, and who they would prefer out of “Jess Wilson and the Liberal-Nationals in alliance with One Nation” and “Jacinta Allan and Labor”, which respectively scored 48% and 42%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035.
As for today’s spill motion, the Herald Sun quotes sources close to Ben Carroll saying they expect 40 to 45 votes in favour with 25 against and four undecided, which supporters of a “confident” Jacinta Allan describe as “inflated”. Should it pass, the question will arise as to whether Jacinta Allan will attempt to pursue the matter unto a ballot of the party membership, as she indicated she would in a letter to the party’s state secretary. This would require 14 party room members to support her nomination, which they might hesitate to do given it would involve a four-to-six week process during which an interim leader would need to be appointed who was not contesting the ballot. The Australian reports “disagreement within Labor” as to whether caucus has the power to prevent this by changing back to the more traditional method of choosing a leader.
The Herald Sun also published results on Saturday of polling conducted by JWS Research for Australian Energy Producers targeting 1000 respondents across “28 marginal and significant seats between June 26 and July 3” that shows a 9% swing from Labor to the Coalition in two-party preferred terms, compared with the 7% recorded by Newspoll. The primary votes were Coalition 29%, One Nation 24%, Labor 23% and Greens 14%, which offers only so much insight in the absence of detail on which seats were polled, though we are told the equivalent results in 2022 were Labor 44%, Coalition 44% and Greens 9% (One Nation is credited with 1%, but presumably only ran in a handful of the seats).
Just get a feeling if Pauline Hanson is controlling federal/’state/territory one nation
would want one nation to be the majority opposition , before any look at being the government , if it is to take majority seats off the lib/nats which they are more then 50/50% of a chance , it is easier than against Labor seats .
One nation could pull out of the seat where the lib/nat are expecting 2pp help to retain or trying to gain the seat ?
How long before Homer LeGrande scores a Guernsey at Sky afterdark having brought a a Victorian Labor Govt.to its knees?
@Grimee
I’m surprised he’s not on there already, he’d probably be introduced by Rowan Dean on Outsiders as being “Look, see, we’ve got one of those lefties from Nine-Fairfax on, see how politically bipartisan we are” and then proceed to discuss how slavery isn’t such a bad thing.
Kirsdarke
Not that I wish this, but tactically/opportunistically ON need some kind of profile leader to bridge the gap from preferencor holding 1-2 seats to significant player with 5-10 + seats?
Who can that be? Deeming associations feel right up Pauline’s alley. Matthew Guy stuff is not so significant to distance I would guess
Otoh like in SA maybe having no leader or organised campaign might not reduce their polling
I can only spitball, ALP at 55 seats… if they can end up with 40 then this leadership change will appear genius. It’s only a qn of whether the Coalition pick up the overwhelming number of ALP losses
The Age are now tasked with digging up dirt on Ben Carroll.
That’s what I have been reliably informed.
@Expat Follower
Deeming kind of ruined her chances of that happening. Among the biggest grievances of One Nation is women making false accusations against men assaulting them. Deeming… kinda got caught red handed doing that. So yeah, I can’t see her being accepted with One Nation.
Will Fowlers announce his retirement at the election. He had potential but was undone by his demons. Back to the auction house. Ringwood is one of those seats that the Liberals would love to win back but might struggle to if the One Nation issue causes problems for the Libs.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 4:14 pm
The Age are now tasked with digging up dirt on Ben Carroll.
That’s what I have been reliably informed.
Of cause, did you expect less.
Ben Carroll will do well if he can treat the press with the contempt it deserves.
What is now being disclosed in NSW had its birth in Victoria – and why the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party remains at war
Google Bastiaan and Sukkar
It is all there
Courted Mormons and Pentecostals from the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne to achieve control of the Division – and did so hence the ongoing war between the old guard, the IPA and the religious right, a war which continues today
And that is before you get to the activities of Basstian’s wife
@frednk
Yeah, I remember during the Covid press conferences that Daniel Andrews managed to swat them off easily. Rachel Baxendale from The Australian became a joke from those encounters.
I hold hope that at least Ben Carroll paid attention to that.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 4:34 pm
Will Fowlers announce his retirement at the election. He had potential but was undone by his demons. Back to the auction house. Ringwood is one of those seats that the Liberals would love to win back but might struggle to if the One Nation issue causes problems for the Libs.
_______________________________
Popular local councilor Prue Cutts is running as the Voices independent – wonder who she is going to preference out of Rachel Halse (former member Dustin’s wife) or Nick McGowen…
Victoria,
Given a move to Carroll was what was expected/what they were advocating for, you would assume they’d have more on him than anyone else. It would possibly have been more strategic to go with someone lesser known/from left field, but it seems the consensus was a quick decision was the preferred/only option.
He arguably has the main flaws Allan has, other than being a man from Melbourne (which is somewhat ironic that this is preferable to the loud, regional, anti-Allan camp who constantly complain of being neglected). But I’m not sure there’s anyone in caucus that can cut their own rhetorical path while under attack like Andrews could, who funnily enough seemed to materialise from almost nowhere when he took the leadership.
Roy Morgan Vic Poll (the SMS variety)
Poll Period: July 20-22
Sample: 1854
Link: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10316-roy-morgan-trust-and-distrust-in-victorian-politics-jess-wilson-jacinta-allan-press-release
No primaries at this stage. Hopefully soon.
@Nadia, I ran the BludgerTrack VIC primaries through that model I made and these are the seat projections I got with ALP 28.2, LNP 29.9, ONP 19.7, GRN 12.7, Others 9.5 as the baseline primary votes (and of course the LC region level swing variations applied to each seat on top of that):
ALP 38
L/NP 36
GRN 4
ONP 3
Tossups 7
That’s a pretty competitive result where nobody wins a majority but Labor at least have a 50/50 chance of forming minority government.
You have to think that if Labor can recover maybe 2-3% of their primary vote due to the leadership change and get a 3 in front of it, then the landscape moves to Labor likely retaining government and the question being whether it’s in minority of majority.
(I will mention too, a One Nation primary vote of 26% had them winning 13 seats and being competitive in tossups too, so I think the range between 20-25% for One Nation makes a pretty big difference to their seat count)
Thanks Trent.
I would probably say too that the state ALP will get “something” of a bounce when the next round of polls out of Victoria turn up (I’m hoping Roy Morgan will provide primaries soon, although this will be the last JA poll).
The 3 ON seats you mention above – are they Lowan, Mildura & Gippsland East, out of interest?
First presser by Ben Carroll as Premier
https://www.youtube.com/live/6i9WSnwM7p8?si=qV6n95cXBUOYkWTf
The Green seats I think they might jag are as follows.
* Melbourne (based on yesterdays DemosAU MRP where they are pulling a 38% primary). This is a healthy primary!
* Brunswick
* Richmond
* Footscray
* & possibly Hawthorn (my only reasoning – time might be up for Pesutto)
Anyway, I’ve got the Greens sitting on 5 in Victoria. Their polling seems to be holding up down there. (When I say “down there” I’m posting from SE QLD, but am reasonably familiar with Vic).
Also, I don’t think Prahran will flip back to the Greens (my reasoning is the current state of the ALP primary, but yes this could change after the leadership change today).
My guess is Labor will end up with somewhere between 35-40 seats. There were probably looking at being in the high 20s under Allan.
My reasoning:
Labor currently hold 54 seats (plus 2 ex-Labor bad boys).
There is only 8 seats on less than 5% in Labor vs Coalition seats. I would probably write those ones off. (Bass, Pakenham, Hastings, Ripon, Glen Waverley, Bayswater, Yan Yean, Melton).
There are also 4 seats where Labor vs Green is less than 4%. I would probably say Northcote and Pascoe Vale are gone. Nathan Lambeth might stand a better chance in Preston as the market issue is not there this time. And I feel Footscray is a not turning Green.
Then there are 20 odd seats which are on margins of 5% to 10%. Previously, I would have sais that Labor was in trouble of most of these with Allan at the helm but now they will only probably lose a handful of them. It depends how places like Sunbury, the 2 Narre Warren seats, Mordialloc, Nidderie etc react. These are the seats which will be individual contest (expressed as 88 Byelections by some commentators but really it is like 30 odd).
And then there is the 21 very safe Labor seats. The only one that I see falling is Bendigo East and that is because Allan is gone and the local opposition is heavily geared up.
And the issue the coalition is One Nation is going to cause them issues in Morewell, Shepparton, Euroa, Benambra, Lowan, South West coast, Murray Plains etc. I can easily see One Nation cleaning up these and possibly more.
Arky @3:11pm,
I think it’s worth interrogating people on why they hold the opinions they do about Allan. When I have it’s usually a mishmash of poorly understood policies that predate her. You’d be hard pressed to find someone who says they hate her for anything she actually did herself. The government is aging and there’s going to be a drag associated with that. Besides, I’m a commenter on the internet, I don’t need to pretend to be in tune with wider community. I don’t think it’s particularly controversial to say popular opinion can be wrong or misguided, and there are times it’s best to look elsewhere for good judgement.
However, I’m not going to pretend we would even be having this discussion if she wasn’t so unpopular, as you say, rightly or wrongly. She had far more opportunity to turn things around than most leaders do, and caucus was very disciplined in that time. I don’t think it was the best decision, but I’m not shedding any tears.
I maintain that allowing the media to determine your leader and validating conspiratorial gossip and undermining your own achievements is a sound method of dealing with criticism. Allan clearly didn’t have the answer herself, but it’s pretty unclear this will be a better alternative. That’s before we factor that there was a clear creepy, misogynistic and outright paranoid layer to the hatred of she received. Carroll is going to have to be careful while navigating this in the aftermath and it’s worth reflecting on why it was the case. “Poor communicator” is a bit of a cop out.
The royal commission into the whole construction sector will be interesting, and a clear unforced error from Allan. Setting the terms of reference before the Liberals can and its findings coming out likely after they’ve left office is a smart move. It pushes the conversation last the election too – as there’s not much ON or the Liberals can propose that goes further, other than making arbitrary judgements.
Nope they are Pakenham, Yan Yean and Melton.
All Labor seats, but seats that I think are certain Labor losses anyway so really ON are still just eating into Liberal gains there.
One Nation only really start gaining Coalition seats, according to that model, when their primary vote is in the mid-20s. Most of those regional & rural Coalition seats come out as Coalition v One Nation 2CPs where the Coalition win quite easily. And in metro Melbourne, One Nation are most competitive in outer suburban Labor seats.
For Morwell, that’s a tossup at the 3PP stage, where the 2CP would determine the outcome but either way Labor lose:
ALP v ON = ON easily win off Coalition preferences;
ALP v Coalition = Coalition easily win off ON preferences;
Coalition v ON = Coalition win off Labor & Greens preferences
@Nadia, the model I uses is often a little difficult to predict Greens seats, in particular the Greens v Labor ones, because we don’t yet know how Coalition & One Nation preferences might flow between the two which will be decisive in some.
I’ve just put 50/50 split for now without knowing what the HTV cards will do, and have the Greens retaining their 3 seats and Labor mostly retaining Northcote, other than a couple of the really bad polls for Labor (Freshwater & DemosAU) which had the Greens gaining it.
But I think Northcote will flip.
Prahran is actually more clear cut because the Libs will certainly make the 2CP there, so how their preferences flow is irrelevant, and ON preferences will certainly flow heavily to LIB.
However, every set of poll numbers I used including the disastrous DemosAU one, had the Greens very comfortably winning Prahran.
Obviously that doesn’t take into account the local factors like incumbency shifting from GRN to LIB, but I’m talking a GRN 2CP over 55% in almost every scenario.
Interestingly the Redbridge MRP had Labor gaining Prahran, haha! I don’t think so..
Prahran is actually more clear cut because the Libs will certainly make the 2CP there, so how their preferences flow is irrelevant, and ON preferences will certainly flow heavily to LIB.
=============
I think we crossed paths on Prahran early 2025.
I agree the Libs will make the 2CP cut in this district.
The O.N. vote will be in single digits in Prahran (ie: barely a pulse). This is so not O.N. territory (not that you suggested this).
The Greens will probably get around 35-38% on primaries, but if the ALP primary is diabolical, then they won’t be able to rely on that preference distribution to jag the seat.
I think the Libs will retain Prahran this election.
I think a lot of Allan’s unpopularity has come from the fact that she was never able to establish an image of herself in people’s minds as being an independent political personality. She finished uni, immediately became a political staffer, became an MP at 25 and has never done anything else in her life. Her political brand is inseparable from that of the ALP as a whole, and the Left faction in particular.
And the fact of the matter is that most ordinary people are not massive fans of the Labor Party, nor of the Left faction. They prefer politicians who, if not quite mavericks, at least give the impression of being able to think for themselves on some issues rather than simply reflecting the current state of their party’s hive mind.
Perhaps I’m being a little unfair, but that’s how she’s always come across to me. Definitely a competent senior politician, but without the powerful personality traits that Andrews could display without trying, and which Albo at least displays on occasions (albeit a bit less so recently). In short, a bit meh.
“First presser by Ben Carroll as Premier”
Pretty good. Kneecapped the whiners for a RC that will go nowhere, the Special Prosecutor was a nice touch. I would have gone a bit harder on Crime by cancelling Parole and forcing mandatory remand for serious offences.
Didn’t go off piste on the constant badgering about the “delegation” stuff.
It’s as good a start as you can in the circumstances. Which changed.
Also, I think Labor needs some kind of stooge media outlet to deliver some dixers to their leaders to break up the agitprop pushers from the mainstream media.
On primary votes and one nation coming from under 10% primary vote , lib/nats combined primary below 2022 victorian election
my guess
Lib/ nats total 19 seats
One nation 14 seats
Kirsdarke, Trent or BSF
Do you reckon some independents can win in Victoria election?
If so, will they be right-wing or left-wing or teels or neutrals (like in Bracks time) in charged and polarised political environment?
The reason I am asking is because L-NP will go after Labor saying that Labor+Greens government if Labor wins minority government by miracle although the irony in that argument is that L-NP will depend on ON if it forms minority government and will preference ON above Labor in the election.
Ghost – can you offer an assessment of where you think things will land in November?
@meher baba at 5:40pm
Yeah, I got that vibe from Jacinta Allan too.
Of course I don’t think she deserves a 71% disapproval rating, I mean ye gods, on those sort of numbers you’d expect that she was turning up to press conferences dressed as Pol Pot rather than her usual hi-vis/hard hat getup and enacted similar Khmer Rouge policies.
If Labor has any chance in November, they should also sack the entire media team that brought her unpopularity to this point.
Scott
You are dreaming with your numbers and analysis. I think you will come cropper this time.
There is no person like Modi or Amit Shah to guide Victorian Labor at federal ALP level. 🙂
I think it is better for Victorian Labor to lose election to L-NP-ON combine.
Labor is not yet a election winning machine.
@Ven at 5:52pm
Hard to say until the campaign starts in earnest.
Although I do think South-West Coast, Kew and Mornington might be the most likely seats to go towards Independents. Just from feelings, not from actual data.
I think Labor will get back into the mid-30’s on dumping Allen, who had a popularity level a few points worse than Hitler did with Germans in 1945. I think the voters will look at whatever moronic One Nation stooge Pauline picks (or alternatively, whatever former Liberal Christian nationalist who jumps ship) and abhor the idea of an O-LNP Coalition. Labor to win again.
Olive Oyl,
I think there’s an element of polarisation. People don’t really talk to each other outside of their own circles. Honestly, I get it. It’s genuinely exhausting having to get into arguments about seemingly banal issues about who gets to use a bathroom and whether it’s possible to get a spinal injury from falling over, with people who aren’t actually interested in hearing any information that contradicts their opinions. Especially when you’re having someone demand you “respect” their opinion that you don’t deserve any.
Its definitely lead myself to mostly voluntarily talking to people I don’t have to argue with and largely agree with, which undoubtedly colours my perception of how common some opinions are. I don’t have an answer for it – I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing to avoid people who don’t give a shit about your welfare – but an inability to talk to each other is undoubtedly a factor in the ridiculous polarised cycle we have of good policy being repealed because we can’t admit the “other team” or “other people” were right.
It’s a shame, because it means we can’t seem to have proper discussions about complex problems where trade-off are necessary.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/07/group-ticket-voting-going-going-rolling.html
Group Ticket Voting: Going, Going …? (Rolling Thread)
Thanks Ghost. We’ll see what happens over the next 16 weeks.
Ven says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 5:56 pm
Scott
You are dreaming with your numbers and analysis.
———————————————
I can not see Liberal or one nation party getting majority of the swing from labor going to either , it wil likely be little swing to them if any
swing from labor, majority will likely go to non lib/nats aligned candidates in labor held . over 55%/45%
in safe Labor seats 2pp over 60/40%
One nation candidate would be coming off 0% primary vote , and lib/nat candidate which ever is running primary vote below 30/20/ in each of those seats , if one nation is gaining from the swing from lib/nats candidate , the only way lib/nats or one nation can make a contest is receive a lot of the swing against labor candidate, doubt they will get enough swing
on election day I could be well wrong ,. but that is the way I m looking at it
Scott, are you sticking with your earlier comment that Wilson will be ousted in Kew?
‘She finished uni, immediately became a political staffer, became an MP at 25 and has never done anything else in her life…’
To be fair, you could say much the same for both Daniel Andrews and Ben Carroll.
nadia
Victorian Labor will not get bounce in poll numbers after the switch. They are on course to lose November election
Ven
The only seat I’ve heard that the Climate 200 mob are looking at seriously is Jess Wilson’s.
I’ve frequently (via twitter, but to be fair, Holmes a Court often responds..) pointed out that Climate 200, if it is serious about its mandate, would be running candidates in State seats currently held by the Nats, rather than (as it appears) acting as an extension of Holmes a Court’s personal vendetta against the Kooyong branch of the Liberal party.
Meher baba,
I’d agree, which is part of why it’s hard to see if it would have been different had someone else taken the leadership after Andrews – but these things are ultimately unknowable. There’s also a flavour of “I don’t like Labor but there aren’t good alternatives” that could take the form of disliking the leader while saying you’ll vote for the party.
This could explain how the paradox of how Victorian Labor is somehow both diabolically unpopular but still trending similarly to the Victorian Liberals or federal Labor, in addition to the general distaste for One Nation the further you get from the tropic of Capricorn.
Ben Carroll did have extensive Kmart experience. I think if you are after some men’s nightwear he was the man to speak to.
TBM’s PV chart has Labor’s vote ticking up slightly.
Ven, no argument from me on this issue.
Link: https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/06/03/federal-polls-yougov-and-roy-morgan-open-thread-3/comment-page-7/#comment-4728745
Now we have 2 SDA Premiers, a Woolworths trolley boy and a Kmart shelf stacker. You have to hand it to the SDA they can spot talent a mile off. Well, provided they are Catholic.
nadia says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 6:13 pm
Scott, are you sticking with your earlier comment that Wilson will be ousted in Kew?
—————————————————————————–
Yes , , im not saying Labor will gain , but I think she will lose the seat
Poor old Ali Ali, a Coles trolley boy could have been the best Premier in Australian history but as a Muslim he was out of the race from the start.
Labor might get to 30, can’t see them going much higher. It’ll be interesting to see if they can get a deal with the teachers before the election, the Greens and Socialists might get a boost if they don’t
The dance partners will get nervous about where this royal commission will go, it takes 2 to tango
Good to see movement on GVT
Ven, the guru doesn’t get it wrong.
Chip and the wrappers have gone off too early.
Thanks Scott. I don’t think Wilson will lose in Kew, although I think Pesutto may be in trouble in Hawthorn.
The recent Demos MRP had the following “albeit Federal” data for Kooyong, of which Kew forms the northern part.
* LIB 36%
* ON 20%
* ALP 12%
* GRN 12%
* Ind/Oth 20% (ie: Monique Ryan will probably lose her seat next Fed election)
Transferring this to state is complicated, of course, but I don’t see the numbers for a Teal/Indy to take down Wilson.
She may be in trouble in 2030, but I think this year she’ll be apples.
Link to the MRP data:
https://demosau.com/news/new-mrp-model-points-to-hung-parliament/
Scroll down and you can plug in electorates & get the data.
The suggestion that Jacinta Allan was in any meaningful sense a left-wing leader is absurd.
She is stubbornly resistant to investigating corruption in the construction sector, which betrays left-wing commitments to rooting out corruption and using infrastructure projects to serve the public purpose.
She is fanatically committed to gender identity theory, not as an interesting topic for sociology and philosophy seminars where it belongs, but as a governing framework for the health care system and social policy. Consequently, she violated women’s rights and adolescent welfare in an egregious manner.
She deserved to be ejected from her office.