The Australian brings an adroitly timed state Newspoll result for Victoria, which has Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 31%, One Nation on 19% and the Greens on 13%, with the Coalition leading Labor 52-48 on two-party preferred. This is distinctly weaker for One Nation than other recent polling, and suggests Labor to be more competitive than recent conventional wisdom has allowed. Any notion that this might boost Jacinta Allan ahead of today’s party room vote is torpedoed by her personal ratings of 25% approval and 71% disapproval, which Kevin Bonham informs us is the “worst net satisfaction recorded by a state Premier in the history of Newspoll”. Jess Wilson is on 47% approval and 39% disapproval and leads 51-32 on preferred premier.
Respondents were asked who they would favour to form government out of Labor, the Coalition and One Nation, with respective results of 41%, 35% and 18%, and who they would prefer out of “Jess Wilson and the Liberal-Nationals in alliance with One Nation” and “Jacinta Allan and Labor”, which respectively scored 48% and 42%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035.
As for today’s spill motion, the Herald Sun quotes sources close to Ben Carroll saying they expect 40 to 45 votes in favour with 25 against and four undecided, which supporters of a “confident” Jacinta Allan describe as “inflated”. Should it pass, the question will arise as to whether Jacinta Allan will attempt to pursue the matter unto a ballot of the party membership, as she indicated she would in a letter to the party’s state secretary. This would require 14 party room members to support her nomination, which they might hesitate to do given it would involve a four-to-six week process during which an interim leader would need to be appointed who was not contesting the ballot. The Australian reports “disagreement within Labor” as to whether caucus has the power to prevent this by changing back to the more traditional method of choosing a leader.
The Herald Sun also published results on Saturday of polling conducted by JWS Research for Australian Energy Producers targeting 1000 respondents across “28 marginal and significant seats between June 26 and July 3” that shows a 9% swing from Labor to the Coalition in two-party preferred terms, compared with the 7% recorded by Newspoll. The primary votes were Coalition 29%, One Nation 24%, Labor 23% and Greens 14%, which offers only so much insight in the absence of detail on which seats were polled, though we are told the equivalent results in 2022 were Labor 44%, Coalition 44% and Greens 9% (One Nation is credited with 1%, but presumably only ran in a handful of the seats).
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
“Jacinta Allan will attempt to pursue the matter unto a ballot of the party membership, as she indicated she would in a letter to the party’s state secretary. This would require 14 party room members to support her nomination, which they might hesitate to do given it would involve a four-to-six week process during which an interim leader would need to be appointed who was not contesting the ballot. The Australian reports “disagreement within Labor” as to whether caucus has the power to prevent this by changing back to the more traditional method of choosing a leader.”
Don’t even think about it. These rules were put in place for good reason after the whole Rudd/Gillard leadership debacle. If Victorian Labor wanted to pursue a change they should of done this earliar. If I had the choice between the rank and file deciding the leadership or some over- ambitious number cruncher who views the leadership as a play thing. I know who I would choose.
woeful.
PW @ 0704.
The clock is ticking and if the ALP has any chance of winning the November poll they will have to act now and reset the narrative and come out with some big statements. Some tough decisions may need to be made and the new premier (if that occurs) needs to come out swinging.
One thing is certain JA has aged dramatically. She is about 10 years younger than me and looks twice my age. Politics is a hard and brutal game.
If the ALP changed leaders because of a failed boomer media ‘narrative’ I would feel a strong urge to spoil my ballot at that point.
The Rudd Rules seem pretty unworkable especially as one of the only times they’ve been used the members voted for Albanese and the caucus chose Shorten. Things may have been very different if that didn’t happen
Ben Carroll’s poor performance in Education and with the teachers doesn’t inspire much confidence
I’m hoping there is a 3rd candidate and Victoria lands on a minority government with Labor and an expanded Greens representation running the show
It’s a long time since the dead tree media have used a complemtary image of the female ‘Labor’ Premier in Victoria.
On the other hand……….
It’s what your media arm is expected to do.
So if Labor lose, you end up with the Libs, who are tearing themselves apart, and not fit for government, not much of a choice is it?
Jess Wilson is on 47% approval and 39% disapproval and leads 51-32 on preferred premier., along with this lib/nats combined primary vote 31% (34.48% 2022), is politically not good ,
2022
Liberal party 18 seats (29.6% primary vote)
National Party 9 seats (4.77% primary vote)
If Carroll stands unopposed then my mail on the weekend was partially wrong (right on the challenge, likely right on something to be announced afterwards, wrong on who had what numbers). We’ll see.
Always fun to get rapid feedback on how much a source really knows heh.
Re Omar @7:37.
Resist the urge. The populist Right must be kept out of office. They would wreck climate action and try to reverse it, cancel or completely stuff up Victoria’s infrastructure projects, defund health care, state education, environment protection, indigenous affairs, repeal the Treaty, etc etc. They will try to Gerrymander the upper House to extend their power beyond the political grave..
If you do feel this way, I would suggest voting for a centre or left candidate who is acceptable to you, put Labor third last, put whichever of the Coalition or One Nation you think is is more likely to win your seat last and the other second last.
I guess we’ll find out what happens not long after 10am, really hoping a 3rd candidate emerges
Surely the left won’t roll over given they are in majority. Steve Dimopoulos?
The Newspoll will reassure both major parties in Victoria.
The Victorian Coalition would be happy with One Nation well behind in third, which suggests the Coalition will make the top two in many more seats than in Redbridge’s MRP and then benefit from preferences. As Kos Samaras and others have said, and the Nepean by-election and Redbridge MRP have shown, the Coalition is doing well from Labor and One Nation preferences whenever it is in the top two, even with a low primary. The 2pp is very hard to interpret, but I expect the Coalition would prefer Newspoll’s 52-48 than Redbridge’s 54-46, given One Nation was so strong in Redbridge, knocking the Coalition out of many seats at the final count.
The poll’s release is bad timing for Jacinta Allan, though the Labor primary is at the higher end of recent polls. It will be interesting to see what happens today, especially given both Allan and Carroll said yesterday they would stand, and the Left is clearly split. Both are likely hoping the other will back down.
Yeah, having now watched the ABC report and actually seen and listened to Ben Carroll for the first time, I’m more convinced than ever that this is the bad idea. This does not seem like the person who can turn Labor’s fortunes around.
I don’t quite understand the hate for Jacinta but I’m not a Victorian and don’t live there. Is she just a victim of the “it’s time” factor plus all the union corruption stuff or is she lacking charisma or is it something else? I don’t know very much about her but those personal approval ratings are truly staggering.
“The Rudd Rules seem pretty unworkable especially as one of the only times they’ve been used the members voted for Albanese and the caucus chose Shorten. ”
@Hard Being Green
Bullshit. So they only hold one ballot and the majority parliamentarians backed one candidate so the whole system needs to be turfed because its ‘unworkable’. Yeah good one.
The system has given stability to the Labor party when its been needed. You can bet there would have been some poll obsessed number crunchers thinking of causing mischief after Albanese polling numbers were in the doldrums after the Voice referendum failed that would have been deterred because it’s too hard to execute with the new rules in place.
Some lawyers would be fascinated were there to be a court contest over the feasibility of a caucus change to the Rudd rules. My bet would be on a result that kept the courts well out of it, and the resulting shit fight would produce great copy for the media.
On a more important question, will an announcement by One Nation of it’s leadership team and its slate of candidates alter radically the polling based projections?
Notahorse
All of the above plus a total failure to acknowledge anything is wrong so there is total inaction. That all becomes cumulative after a while. She has also been associated with everything that has gone wrong like the Commonwealth Games.
Notahorse – Allan has not been an effective communicator. It hasn’t help that the Victorian parliamentary press gallery has been ferally against the state government since the pandemic. But she just has not had the presence or ability to take on the media. Plus being female has not helped as the Right wing goes nuts if a woman is in charge.
She has also not responded well to some of the major issues. The “Crime wave” has been dismissed without a sign of empathy for the victims making her seem uncaring. The corruption has been dismissed as it is a matter for the courts or IBAC. The “State is broke” line has been ignored instead of disputing.
Wise post Steve777
Does Carroll have the personality and presence to make the case that Labor can govern for another 4 years? Given the alternative is a liberal-PHON coalition I sincerely hope so, but he doesn’t strike me as charismatic and any way (quite the opposite, in fact – there’s something slightly reptilian about him – but then again, Wilson looks like a cyborg) and the murdoch, seven and nine media will continue their attack-dog campaigns against labor – there’s no secret about who their political reporters, opinion writers and editors vote for. As a Victorian I fear that 4 years of a ‘liberal’ (actually a dysfunctional grouping of hard right factions who hate each other’s gut – religious nutters and those to the right of Kennett economically and far right on social policy. Wilson has been backed by the IPA her entire career and somehow she’s the ‘moderate’ window dressing who will be ditched as soon as the religious right camp gets their way). If they have to rely on PHON, they’ll undo years of state-building progressive policies – already they have committed to sacking 1 in 5 public workers, abolishing treaty, stopping investment in renewables, restarting fracking, restarting logging of state forests, restarting grazing of the high country, stopping culls of feral horses in the high country – the Baillieu government did some of these things, and was deliberately anti-environment. With PHON pulling their strings they’ll go much further – expect restrictions on abortion, attacks on LGBTQI rights, attacks on multiculturalism, cuts to social and health programs, redirection of funds to conservative organisations, privatisations, etc. I find it hard to have a lot of faith in Carroll (ex-shoppie, right-faction conservative catholic labor), but I really hope he can pull this off. The alternative is terrifying and labor need to make things about this and not their internal woes. Hopefully Allan steps aside and resigns her seat – she’s going to lose it anyway and a by-election (if held in the few months before the state election) could help expose the fact that PHON are not ready – no state leader or candidates 4 months from the election. Our best hope may be for progressive indies to hold BoP.
Human nature
It engulfs – including Richard Pratt and cartel manipulation, the banks being forced off fund manager businesses by a Royal Commission, the accounting profession and KPMG, religion and the Catholic Church seeking to evade payments to victims of sexual abuse after protecting the abusers, those manipulating the taxation system such as the Bottom of the Harbour tax evasion scheme, the defrauding of people by Fund Managers resulting in people losing their retirement savings, the Child Care industry and ABC Learning, kerosene baths in old people facilities, the manipulation of political parties now identified in NSW (and replicating Victoria which saw recruitment from religious groups to give control of the Victorian Division and the culture war that has raged since with the IPA faction)
And the list goes on and on – and continues to go on and on
Where some in society see money and power, they attempt to put their hands into the pockets of those with money and extract money for their own gain and otherwise manipulate to achieve power (and with ego)
This is human nature
And so with infrastructure projects and the money available from the Tender process (thru government to commercial enterprise)
My wife has a saying that we are all born bad and that we have to work at being good
From my history banking Corporate Australia, she is correct
There are those who work at being good – and who contribute to society so not acting in self interest
And there are those who do not looking for self gratification
Where the Victorian government has failed is that it has failed to address that human nature is what it is by refusing to acknowledge the reason governments exist – to pass laws to protect citizens from bad people
Perhaps they have noting what the Premier says and her challenge to report crime to the authorities
But if this is the case the message is not cutting thru including because in my view the nature of society is being ignored by media and their bias in a blatant attempt to denigrate the political advantage of “Big Build” delivering required infrastructure to citizens and our future citizens
So this is in my view firstly and fore mostly a partisan political exercise by a media which represents big business
Yes, there is fault
That fault is down to (some) human beings – and that has always been the case and always will be the case
I also note that the media continue their attack on the “divisive” Andrews 14 years of leadership of the ALP, which resulted in 3 election victories each larger than the previous victory
Why is this?
My view that this is a question for society and the manipulation of society
And, as an 81 year old, that is just sad because you would hope to leave this World in a better place than it was in when you entered it
But these days self interest appears to be everywhere
Mind you, no one is always right and no one is always wrong
Take Hanson and her presentation that false allegation is used as a weapon at the Family Court of Australia
From personal experience she is absolutely correct – but try to get that narrative out there
No one wants to know as self interests swamps media presentations
There is a requirement for a “read this and respond” to put the facts on the table
But no one is listening according to media headlines
Are the Unions, the subject of attack, responding?
There is no reporting of them and their response in our media
With the eternal attack on Unions by the arms of big business continuing as always
Just as there is no reporting of fathers subjected to false allegations and the damage done to them AND their children (noting that fathers do obtain custody in the Family Court of Australia)
The sadness is that media only present one side of the story when it is their responsibility to report BOTH sides
But we have Murdoch, Stokes and the Phoenix 9 Entertainment with their headlines
They do not serve society
And here we are today, the World in a worse place than it was in 81 years ago
Notahorse – Also love the name. I assume that is a reference to “The thick of it”.
You’d think the dopes remaining in VIC Labor would have learnt from 10yrs of VIC Lib leadership chaos.
*I don’t quite understand the hate for Jacinta but I’m not a Victorian and don’t live there. Is she just a victim of the “it’s time” factor plus all the union corruption stuff or is she lacking charisma or is it something else? I don’t know very much about her but those personal approval ratings are truly staggering.*
There has been a unrelentless media campaign against her by murdoch, seven and nine groups – The Age was for decades moderate-centre and usually backed labor or even the greens, but has become a right wing rag – an analogue version of 9 TV ‘news’ or the Herald Sun for those who went to private schools. Allan has looked flustered and seems to have serious questions to answer about what she knew of union corruption on Big Build projects when she was minister, and her refusal to have a royal commission and delays on even an inquiry suggests the answers are not good for her. Back in the day of westminster ministerial responsibility she would have resigned before now – Barry O’Farrell NSW stood down to avoid these sorts of questions (pretending it was about an undeclared bottle of Grange). I think there’s also gender bias.
You’d have thought the challengers and turncoats would’ve resigned from their cabinet positions by now.
Treachery abounds…
If you are not understanding Allan’s problem, image if she was a Liberal Party Premier, now ask yourself, if you could support her and why.
Point being are people who say, I can’t see why Allan is unpopular, looking at Allan’s performance.
SE
The media arm of the Liberals may win.
Buyer remorse will follow very quickly.
Sustainable Future,
Sorry about this, and I know everybody hates the Grammar Police, but … ‘unrelentless’?
If it’s not relentless, doesn’t that mean it relented?
Steven.In.Mildura
There’s plenty of things to choose from in criticizing JA, but you go after her appearance. Shame.
What does the wannabe new premier support?
Will She support TM’s Freedom Day holiday?
Now that a challenge has been mounted, it simply has to be successful, and it needs to be successful today. All likely alternative scenarios are disastrous for Labor.
– Carroll pulls out before the vote, begging the question of whether Allan truly had the numbers.
– Allan wins the vote narrowly.
– Allan loses and decides to fight on through a party ballot, which means that Victoria will have an interim Premier for 4 weeks.
The only scenario that would work would be for Allan to win a near-unanimous victory over Carroll. I assume that isn’t likely.
Allan about to speak to the media. I would guess she’s resigning, but nothing is certain in this story.
Can we expect the endless list of “unnamed” sources/spokespersons/insiders to reveal themselves?
goll
Are you shocked politicians and staffers talk to the media.
Oops I had posted this on other thread earlier
Jacinta Allan has been considering her position for months. Apart from being unpopular in the electorate generally, she is bound to lose her own seat at election. She may be many things, but she is not stupid.
Delay in getting to this point, was mainly due to the teachers dispute being unresolved.
This week is the last chance regarding timing to make the change.
I can tell you there is some kabuki theatre going on.
So there is that.
There she goes.
Jacinta Allan will resign.
As I expected to happen all along. Jacinta Allan was always going to resign.
The timing was the issue.
Another point on Allan’s media projection is that she is one of those politicians that just cannot answer a question without obfuscation and talking around the point. A few times I have found myself yelling at the radio ” just answer the f***ing question” – one memorable time with Raf Epstein (before she was Premier), he asked her the same question three times – evasion everywhere – then the “can you answer with a yes or no” – finally, his comment was ” we are getting nowhere here” – Jacinta Allan and the media minders might have been happy but anyone listening was just annoyed.
Will Ben Carroll being a ‘Shoppie’ see some Labor voters peel off leftwards to the Greens?
Pressure is on the Victorian Liberal Party leader Jess Wilson , knowing the liberal party if labor elect a male leader , will the victorian liberal party who are a rabble and known to replace leaders , when under pressure replace Jess Wilson , in the next few months particular with the liberal party primary vote presently is around or below the 2022 state victorian result .
The most logical deputy is Gabrielle Williams
Does JA run in her own seat in November? Surely not.
What do you mean ‘one of those’? I have never in my life encountered a politician who does not fit that category. The only difference is whether or not interviewers let them get away with it.
Vic – Yes, Gabby Williams is the true future of the party. She is only 42.
Scott
Why would they change leaders? and what pressure? Labor is under pressure. Ben Carroll has to spend the next 4 months polishing the turd he inherited.
JA resigns
Any idea if this will impact the AEU bargaining?
blackburnpseph says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 9:45 am
Scott
Why would they change leaders? and what pressure? Labor is under pressure. Ben Carroll has to spend the next 4 months polishing the turd he inherited.
———————————————-
Jess Wilson replace Brad Batin , if lib/nat combined primary vote is 31% , they will struggle to get near 27 seats which they reach at the 22 victorian state election with a combined primary vote of 34.48%
in my opinion