The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor losing a three-point gain it made in the last poll three weeks ago, putting them back at 30%. The uneven polling picture for One Nation is maintained with a one-point increase to 30%, only one point shy of its record result from the poll before last. The Coalition is up two to 19% after descending from 21% in April to 17% late last month. The Greens are down a point to 12%, having bumped around in a range from 11% to 13% since the start of the term.
Anthony Albanese is on 39% approval and 57% disapproval while Angus Taylor is on 30% and 51%, which in both cases are down one on approval and steady on disapproval. Albanese’s lead over Angus Taylor on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-36 to 44-36, and a three-way version of the question has Albanese down three to 46%, Taylor up two to 22%, and Pauline Hanson up one to 32%. Hanson is up a point on approval to 47% and down two on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1238.
I suppose this might be an opportunity to repost John Birmingham’s Friday post.
https://aliensideboob.substack.com/p/gen-x-and-the-repossession-fantasy
https://photos.app.goo.gl/XaLDYVEdizbBgUFNA
This is what the 2028 election would likely look like according to the Newspoll.
Looks almost the same as the previous Newspoll poll 6 weeks ago. Last one might have been a slight outlier. Labor the same 30% ON 1% less, LNP up one.
“What they do is move en masse into pollsters’ crosstabs for One Nation.”
==========
But why?
Its the economy, stupid, and the economy is migration – no matter how insane the racial rhetoric is around it.
Because even if folk here don’t believe my charts, surely it is starting to be recognised that the Australian public believe the nexus of migration and cost of living.
The left-on-left violence of the past week is case in point – Labor folk backslapping on another grand speech while Greens people pinch their cheeks in excitement of another round of “it’s not good enough ” (all on AI).
Turns out, so long as Hanson remains focussed on migration, no matter how racially charged and religiously offensive, she can holiday with billionaires in Italy and still see upside in the polls.
Im not here to advocate for the exclusion of brown people – quite the opposite, Labor essentially needs to come out with a sub-200k NOM overwhelmingly skills focused migration plan. Who and from where won’t matter if the public feel that migration is well managed.
The same drivel that has been driveled since forever in Australia. “Muh imgrants”.
Latest from the Sloan Zone – Andy Burnham, Polls and Nationalisation (mainly UK focused but also relates to Australian politics).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ihDT23P2UI
There is a great book by Nicholas Nassim Taleb called “Fooled by Randomness”. I think it’s his best. Humans look for patterns and see them then they aren’t there. Evolution has hard-baked it into us, and it’s difficult to ignore.
How much will we need to raise taxes and cut services to offset the economic hit of reducing migration to sub-200k? How deep must the recession be?
It’s astonishing that questions of this nature are so rarely asked in the current climate. If slashing migration was good for the economy and the average punter’s hip pocket, it would have been done years ago.
It’s the economy, stupid.
It strongly suggests that last week was an outrider, this week is back on trend.
So the National Press Club stunt against Hanson was the biggest backfire of 2026.
The posters here who said it was a backfire have been howled off the site.
The posters here who said it was great are (notably) fairly quiet tonight.
…and the rest of us are stuck with Hanson at 30% on Newspoll after a week of Tommy Robinson, Italian resorts, Rinehart & Roberts.
What the flying heck is going on in this country?
I still can’t see Labor losing the next election. The polling may be tightening up but Labor will easily outcampaign One Nation and the Coalition when the time comes even if they do get their act together, which seems highly unlikely.
Maybe we should build an economy that isn’t solely dependent on migration to grow? Like we used to have pre-2006? Hence why GDP per capita continues to stagnate and fall, we’ve failed to find a model outside simply expanding the population with a growth rate well ahead of the OECD average
The word ‘apophenia’ matches what you’re describing — the very human tendency to find meaning in random noise. Better to see a leopard in the shadows where there was none than to see nothing when there was.
@Thel C
Very few paid attention to Hanson’s NPC speech outside of politics junkies, and even fewer noticed the GetUp stunt. That organisation hasn’t really been relevant since the anti-Workchoices campaign in ‘07
I don’t know anyone who supports One Nation, but apparently 3 in every 10 people I meet every day are now quitely supporting/voting for her, with another 1 in every 5 prepared to give their vote to the Fibs.
I’m getting to the stage I don’t know what is going on in Australia?
I probably don’t – I thought Labor would go up to 35% after the Albo/Modi meeting in Melbourne. I don’t understand why people would think it’s OK for Hanson to meet up with a podcaster such as Tommy RObinson or hang around at a wealthy Italian resort with Rinehart.
Maybe I don’t understand my fellow Australian’s.
@Blue October at 9:56pm
That’s kind of exactly what Labor is trying to do right now?
You either import the skilled people you need to run a modern industrial country or you educate the people you have.
You can bet that if the Liberals or One Nation get in they’ll reduce the education industry to third world status and that’ll screw us over just as bad as Brexit screwed over the UK.
Two things:
— Cutting migration *before* we’ve built a more resilient economy isn’t going to help us build a more resilient economy faster, probably the opposite. It’s like throwing away your crutches before your broken leg has healed, in the hope that doing so will make you recover faster.
— We can continue our migration program while building a more dynamic and resilient economy, and reap the benefits of both. It’s not a zero sum game, as much of the current discourse would have you believe.
The polls have become a little stagnant. It will be interesting to see how big an impact the coming interest rate rise will have.
Thel C at 9.54pm.
“…and the rest of us are stuck with Hanson at 30% on Newspoll after a week of Tommy Robinson, Italian resorts, Rinehart & Roberts.”
The actual surveying would have been done several days ago before Hanson’s overseas junket and incompetence was reported, and before the revelations about Roberts. There is still nearly 2 years of dirt and incompetence to come before voters have to decide. There will never be a Hanson or One Nation government here.
This Newspoll was taken before the stories of those escapades became truly mainstream.
Also there wasn’t a Newspoll last week, so not sure why some are referring to “last weeks” Newspoll.
It’s been three weeks since the last one.
Still amused by those in panic mode about One Nations standing in this poll when we are just under two years away from the next election.
Some people have no perspective at all.
People mistake the government for the economy. They ain’t the same thing.
In conversation with people talking about voting One Nation, the conversation is always comes back to two things. One, immigration, two, a feeling that the government runs the nation for the benefit of the government, not the population.
With respect to opposition to immigration, I find there’s again consistently two things that come up. Firstly, cost of housing, which is widely discussed. Secondly is an issue that just isn’t being discussed by the commentariat at all, which is a feeling that government is using immigration to drive down wages and weaken labour’s bargaining position, and that immigration is diminishing some individuals personal career prospects. This is very traditional labour political territory, but not something we talk about any more, certainly not the ALP. I think this is a big issue in the care economy, and a leading reason why the female ALP vote has dropped so dramatically.
Snap GrannyAnny
Sorry.
Wombat — I’m guessing the people worried about migrants competing for their jobs aren’t thinking too much about the downward pressure that competition puts on inflation, and by extension, interest rates. But you can be sure they’ll blame anyone but themselves when they get what they want and it all blows up in their faces.
I recall a segment on Shaun Micallef’s Mad As Hell in the weeks leading up to the 2019 election where there was a blunt segment spoken by a fake reporter that was basically “We see all these people on the street who look and smell different to us and do things that we think are weird and scary so we’d very much like to get rid of them in a way that doesn’t make us feel bad.”
It’s not up on Youtube but it sticks out in my memory and that’s pretty much what happened at the 2019 Federal election.
Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 9:16 pm
https://photos.app.goo.gl/XaLDYVEdizbBgUFNA
This is what the 2028 election would likely look like according to the Newspoll.
——————-
Thanks TBM, I appreciate your work on these.
Good to see despite Ch.7 hagiographies and endorsements form Liz Truss, Hanson is not actually Oz’s next PM!
GovNerd says:
Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 9:45 pm
How much will we need to raise taxes and cut services to offset the economic hit of reducing migration to sub-200k? How deep must the recession be?
It’s astonishing that questions of this nature are so rarely asked in the current climate. If slashing migration was good for the economy and the average punter’s hip pocket, it would have been done years ago.
It’s the economy, stupid.
_____________________________________
Little to no additional taxes required; reduction in total GDP growth offset by increase in GDP per capita growth.
Because even Treasury’s pre-pandemic estimate of the economic value of migrants showed that of all temporary visa holders, international students barely fiscally broke even (per head, $217) – and this is before we had a massive housing shortage.
https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-12/p2021-220773_1.pdf
Which is probably why the Government had to massively increase international student fees:
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/surprise-visa-fee-increase-sparks-warning-for-future-foreign-students-20260701-p60bla
I support migration – I support genuinely skilled migration (STEM, med & nursing, aged care and childcare), I support humanitarian and refugee migrants and others in a similar situation. But I do not support hundreds of thousands of international students doing courses in soon-to-be automated jobs (accounting, HR), nor low paid service work (cooks), that form far to much of our international student pitch.
https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/research/studies/international-students-pathways-and-outcomes-study
It would be an entirely other thing if our migration program was predominantly scientists, or trades persons, or some other roles that are genuinely productivity enhancing. But that’s not the migration program we have – instead we have a small targeted skills system and a handful of refugees, offset by a gigantic cohort of international students doing BS courses.
Jacabinsays:
Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 10:09 pm
The polls have become a little stagnant…..
============
3% drop for the ALP tonight on Newspoll and a 5% increase for One Fiction on the Morgan poll last week… and you think the polls are stagnant.
The fed gov has no idea outside of its population Ponzi scheme on how to lift productivity.Ai will most likely save it by default.The secret harbour state WA election will be an earthquake if one nation get up.Victoria is there for the taking another interest rate rise soon a real possibility.
Hastie might get involved in the WA election.
Unemployment figures out this week.
Morgan was a correction last week, it had dropped 11 points for One Nation. It’ll be interesting to see where it lands tomorrow
I expected One Nation to be lower tonight but it’s coming imo, there is lots to wash through the system after this week
For a bit of levity, although with the Victorian Liberals as they are these days, the joke might be closer to the truth in what they intend.
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/victorian-liberals-make-campaign-promise-to-bring-back-the-level-crossings/
People seems to forget that in reality, the fastest rate immigration since Federation is actually post-war Australia (1947 to 1972) that has the highest immigrant growth (per capita) with 9.8% Foreign Born in 1947 to 20.2% in 1972 meaning a 10.4% increase and more than tripling the immigrant population (From 740K to 2.6 M) in the 25 year timeframe whereas Immigration from 2000 to 2025 saw it went from 23% to 32% respectively which is a 9% increase and doubling the foreign born population (4.39M to 8.83M). The high foreign born percentages (32%) which is often compared to other nations is therefore ironically inherited from the post-war phase of the White Australia Policy as it actually was already above 20% ever since 1971 (meaning it was already above 20% even before the White Australia Policy was abolished in 1973) compare this to US and UK where their foreign born percentages are currently still around the teens and Canada/NZ reached 20% in the 2000s.
I think the actually issue is the vibes as immigration arrivals up until 15 years ago mainly originated from UK, Europe and NZ but since then it hailed from Asia and it is much easier to see the latter as immigrants hence easier to scapegoat. Australia Historical Immigrations patterns actually stills makes it Whitest Nation outside of Europe (even today) despite ‘immigration’ and a more urbanized. This is why even if there was low immigration but the proportions of the immigration were the same, there would still be a very similar amount of resentment.
Another thing is that the reason why the NOM is higher than pre-covid is due to less migrant departures and actually migrant arrivals are already below 2019.
If Labor did have a polling recovery, then it’s starting to look like it was short lived. I wonder if it’s because the initial shock of Hanson’s comments in the NPC has faded and immigration and cost of living worries slowly crept back into people’s lives. Whatever may have been the cause, ONP seems to have weathered out that controversy pretty decently, even if they’re tying with Labor at best.
One lesson I’ve learnt from the post NPC polling is that once an event of note happens, you need to wait at least two weeks after for it to be accounting in polling. This sentence from GrannyAnny’s on Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 10:10 pm captures this sentiment the best:
“The actual surveying would have been done several days ago before Hanson’s overseas junket and incompetence was reported, and before the revelations about Roberts.”
Next week’s polling will be interesting as surveying period will occur during/after the White Australia comments, association with Tommy Robinson, vacation in Sicily and the increased pressure on Malcom Roberts. People will have seen the news and had time to process it, and make their decision based on it.
Well that’s a disappointing result for Newspoll.
Much as the commentariat and we here on PB like to fuss over small movements in polling from week to week, at this stage of the cycle, none of it means much. The question people are really answering at this stage of the term (not yet halfway) is something along the ones of “what do you think of the government”, and by and large, for any government mid-term, the answer of a lot of respondents is “not much”. But as the next election comes into view (probably in the first half of 2028, but quite possibly late next year), that same question is more like “who do you want to be the government for the next three years”.
Obviously those two answers, made in response to the same question, can be very different. Your average swinging voter, in my view, doesn’t really vote on policy, they vote on the general vibe, and there are only really two vibes: Is it time to throw the bums out, or not yet?
The Albanese government is not much loved, but neither are they hated, and it’s hard to see a big groundswell building against them over the next 18 months or so – especially if the alternative is the racist and loony tunes grifting of One Nation. We all saw how quickly Hanson’s momentum stalled when she put herself forward in a serious way at the Press Club. I just can’t see how she and her band of misfits are going to get through the harsh light of an election campaign unscathed.
Arguing as to whom started the food fight whilst the food fight continues.
The government not seeing the forest for the trees again on AI. Their ‘Digital Duty of Care’ policy seems ok on the surface, but dig a little deeper, and they’re still not giving us control of our data, just setting guardrails that it has to be onshore. Andrew Charlton was quoted today saying that these data centres house our photos and our medical records… but when exactly did we consent to that? I don’t store photos online, and I’ve certainly never consented to having my medical records there. What happened to Labor’s policy that ehealth should be optional? When exactly did doctors get to decide that for us?
I am trying to watch the FIFA World Cup Final. Can they just STForkU with singing and start the bloody game? Tom Cruise is waffling on about stuff we, as football fans, already know.
And I am not going to watch the half-time show. If I had wanted a concert I would have bought a ticket for a concert, or changed the channel to watch a concert.
I am here for a football match.
Steady on Puff. You still get all the ball play time!
Another US soldier killed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/07/19/us-teeters-return-all-out-war-with-iran-after-more-troops-killed/
Hi Puff
Have you been watching the Korean show “Beyond the Bar” on Netflix? It’s good.
Resolve NSW poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/one-nation-profits-as-nsw-voters-abandon-major-parties-20260716-p60fs1.html
‘Turns out, so long as Hanson remains focussed on migration, no matter how racially charged and religiously offensive, she can holiday with billionaires in Italy and still see upside in the polls.’
A misunderstanding of how polling works.
It’s not a reaction to the events of the last week. (Numbers take time to collect and correlate; people need time to assess events and internalise them).
If holidaying in Italy is going to impact on ON’s numbers, we’ll see that in the next poll, not this one.
Somehow Argentina are still in it. As I have posted before, they never give up. But they are going to struggle with 10 men.
Morning all. I slept through my alarm and see I have missed nothing. I saw the last ten minutes and the send off (deserved) and its still 0-0 gong into extra time.
This is not the spectacle FIFA was probably hoping for, but Argentina’s defence is really well organised.
Herald Sun 19/07 – Backroom Baz
Guess Who?
Which Labor powerbroker is understood to be hitting the phones to discuss the potential of a leadership challenge against Jacinta Allan?
_______________________
I’ll start the ball rolling.
Richard Marles.
Re the continuing popularity of ON.
I talk to people who support them. They are not in any way fans of Pauline. They couldn’t give a stuff about her.
What they seem mainly to feel is anger at the major parties, who they feel are not addressing their main concern.
And, to put it bluntly, their main concern seems to be that they feel that “their” country is being rapidly “taken over”by people from South Asia.
I try to explain to them that this state of affairs is the inevitable result of Australians failing to have enough children even to replace themselves, let alone grow the population. And, believe it or not, the people to whom I speak actually get this point.
But they don’t care. They just want the migration to stop. And they are convinced that the major parties aren’t going to do anything about it.
Labor fully appreciates the situation, but don’t care that much because they believe that ON is going to do far more damage to the Coalition than to them. And they’re probably right, but the long-term cost could be a much more divided society.
I would prefer it if Labor made more of an effort to look as if they are in control of the numbers of migrants coming in. They wouldn’t need to do very much IMO.
One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce says his party does not support the White Australia policy, despite previous comments from his leader. Pauline Hanson appeared on a podcast that was released last week with UK far-right activist and convicted criminal Tommy Robinson.
In the podcast with Robinson, the One Nation leader blamed the end of the White Australia policy for migration issues in Australia. Speaking to Channel Seven, Joyce says the end of the White Australia policy was a “very good thing,” but that, after the policy ended, people have come to Australia over time, encompassing a “whole range of views”.
Really nothing to see here, as far as the government’s concerned.
Labor’s about where you’d expect it to be at this stage of the election cycle. Nothing to suggest that they’re facing anything worse than the loss of a handful of seats, and it has quite a few to spare.
The Liberals are in dire trouble and ON is benefitting from that.
Yep, Labor just needs to focus on governing. Like the footy coaches say, “focus on the process and the results will look after themselves”.